Week 9 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 9 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Good luck this week!

Titans at Steelers (TNF)

Start ‘Em

DeAndre Hopkins – I was dead wrong about Hopkins and Levis last week. If the Titans offensive line can keep Levis upright long enough, this is a great spot. The Steelers are surrendering the 2nd-most yards per game to opposing outside receivers (145.6). S Minkah Fitzpatrick (hamstring) is out. Hopkins is dealing with a toe injury, but as long as he’s good to go, he’s an upside WR2.

Derrick Henry – Hopefully, Levis’ deep ball ability will be able to lighten Henry’s load a bit. Henry is seeing 8 or more defenders in the box on a league-high 43% of his carries. Pittsburgh is allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game (4th-most). As usual, Henry’s volume is extremely game-script dependent. In wins, Henry has 28, 23, and 26 touches. In losses, his touch counts are 17, 11, 16, and 15.

FLEX Plays

Diontae Johnson – Continued his upward trend against the Jaguars with 8/85 receiving on 14 targets, as he was constantly gaining separation against defenders. He almost had his first TD since 2021, but slipped on his route in the end-zone due to the wet conditions, and Pickett delivered the ball behind him. Pickett’s rib injury looms large, but Johnson remains a high-end WR3 in PPR in this spot. The Titans are allowing the 4th-most receptions (10.7) and 7th-most yards (136) on a per-game basis to opposing outside wide receivers.

George Pickens – In the three games that Diontae has suited up, Pickens’ first-read target share is 21.7%. That’s well behind Johnson (30.4%), and it’s a massive dip from Weeks 2-5 when Pickens was the WR1. In four games without Johnson, Pickens’ FR share exploded to 38.4%. He continues to make freak catches every single week, and he’s starting to show much stronger separation skills in totality (H/T Jacob Gibbs). QB play and coaching continue to hold him back.

Sit ‘Em

Kenny Pickett – Across 19 career starts, Pickett has finished higher than QB15 once. He’ll try to play through a ribs injury.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – This continues to be a gross backfield split. Harris leads the backfield by a 60% to 40% margin when leading. When the Steelers are trailing, which is often, this duo has split snaps by a 50% to 49% margin. At the very least, Najee (66% snap rate) gets the lead in the red-zone over Warren (31%). These two are bye-week replacements.

Treylon Burks – Returned last week after missing three games with a knee injury. As expected, he was limited with a 47% route share. Burks’ return knocked down Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to a season-low 31% route share.

Chig Okonkwo – Has not topped 35 yards in a game this season.

Connor Heyward – Has 10/70 receiving on 13 targets in three starts.

Tyjae Spears

Sleepers

Will Levis – In his debut, Levis launched a deep ball (20+ yards in air) on a week-high 28% of his dropbacks. Overall, he ranked 3rd in aDOT (10.8 yards) and 11th in CPOE (+6.4%). That’ll play. The downside is that the Steelers front-seven is going to get pressure, and like rookies typically do, Levis struggled when pressured last week (1/7 passing for 33 yards). Except, that one completion was the highlight-reel 33-yard TD flick from Levis to Nick Westbrook-Ikhene. Pittsburgh is generating pressure on 40.5% of opponents’ dropbacks (4th-highest rate).

Dolphins at Chiefs (9:30 am ET | Germany)

Must Start

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce – Kansas City’s lack of perimeter speed is really hurting their offense. Denver played two-high safety coverage on a whopping 71% of Mahomes’ dropbacks last week because they know that the Chiefs don't have the talent to get vertical. At the very least, Kelce looks fully back to 100% health. He still has his usual shiftiness and guile. Miami predominantly plays zone coverage, and this duo is absolutely shredding underneath. Kelce is Mahomes’ first-read 31% of the time and they have linked up for 43 completions and 444 yards (on 53 targets) vs. zone coverages. The Dolphins are allowing the 5th-most receptions per game to TEs (5.8). Kelce has six or more receptions in six-straight games.

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill – No defense runs more two-high safety coverage than Kansas City (63.5% of opponents dropbacks). Meanwhile, no wide receiver is averaging more receiving yards per route run vs. two-high safety looks than Tyreek Hill (4.82). That easily leads the league over Deebo Samuel (4.32 YPRR vs. two-high safety coverage).

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – Had the explosion game last week, as expected. After dealing with a groin injury in August and then sustaining a concussion in Week 3, Waddle got off to a slow start. His usage has continued to rise. Over the last four weeks, Hill has 47 targets to Waddle’s 37 in total.

Isiah Pacheco – Trailing the entire game, the Chiefs abandoned the run in Week 8 vs. the Broncos. The good news is that Pacheco’s usage, by market share, remains strong. Over the last four weeks, Pacheco has garnered 67% of the backfield's expected fantasy points and handled 80% of the RB carries. On the season, Pacheco has handled 76% of the Chiefs RB touches inside-the-10. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) is out.

Raheem Mostert – The Chiefs are much-improved defensively this season, but this unit is struggling against the run. Chargers RBs tagged the Chiefs for 21/120/1 in Week 7, and the Broncos controlled the game on the ground last week with a dominant 32/123 rushing line. Mostert has insane TD upside and you are not taking him out of lineups because this game offers massive scoring potential. However, his role was reduced last week because he is dealing with a minor ankle injury. After handling 65% of the backfield expected fantasy points in Weeks 6-7, that dipped to just 39% last week with Salvon Ahmed (6 touches) and Jeff Wilson (7) involved. De’Von Achane will return off of I.R. in Week 11. Miami has a bye next week.

Update (Friday, 11/3): Mostert is off of the injury report, but was limited in practice all week (again).

FLEX Plays

Rashee Rice – His role continues to ascend. Rice’s route share has risen in every game over the last four weeks (19% > 39% > 56% > 59%), and he continues to earn targets from Mahomes at a high rate. Rice has at least 4 receptions in four straight games, and he has converted his 20 targets into a tight 17/221/2 receiving in this span.

Sit ‘Em

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Kadarius Toney

Skyy Moore

Mecole Hardman

Vikings at Falcons

Start ‘Em

Bijan Robinson – As expected, Bijan got back to his regular usage last week. Robinson ranked 7th among RBs in snap rate (73%) and ran 28 routes, but failed to reel in any of his 5 targets. The Vikings have continued to play strong run defense (3.39 YPC allowed | 6th-fewest), so the hope is that the QB change to Heinicke provides a little spark offensively. Robinson remains a high-end RB2.

Kyle Pitts – After it seemed like he was trending upwards, Pitts’ role has taken a backseat to… Van Jefferson. Don’t question HC Arthur Smith’s genius. Over the last three weeks, Pitts has run a route on just 63% of the pass plays. Before the Falcons added Jefferson to the offense, Pitts ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks in Weeks 1-5. Trust me, I don’t feel great starting Pitts, either. But, given the nature of this week, we have to elevate him. To give us a little hope, the Vikings are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points per game (16.0) to slot receivers. Pitts runs the majority of his routes lined up inside.

Update (Friday, 11/3): Drake London (groin) is out. He wasn’t close to playing after not practicing all week. Van Jefferson will lead the WR group in routes, and Kha’Drel Hodge, Scott Miller, and Mack Hollins will all rotate in.

Sit ‘Em

Taylor Heinicke – In 24 starts over the last two years, Heinicke has finished as a top-15 weekly scorer 11 times. There is definitely some streaming upside if you’re desperate (and bold enough). Heinicke is like discount Jameis Winston. He plays with his hair on fire and is not afraid to force the ball into tight coverage. Desmond Ridder was benched last week – not concussed – because he was lost in the pocket.

Tyler Allgeier

Sleepers

Jonnu Smith – As ever, Smith is a part-time player and he has a really low floor for fantasy. He’s not run a route on more than 63% of the pass plays since Week 3. I’m bumping Smith into the back-end streamer conversation with London out but would absolutely play Logan Thomas, David Njoku, and Trey McBride ahead of him.

Vikings Offense

Kirk Cousins' season-ending Achilles’ injury is a killer. Jaren Hall will start this week, and I’d imagine the plan is for Josh Dobbs to start Week 10 vs. Saints.

The Vikings offensive outlook is bleak. They have an implied team total of 16 points, which is 2nd-lowest on the slate. Fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall has two years of starting experience (22 games) at BYU where he averaged 8.6 YPA and had a 52 TD to 10 INT ratio.

TJ Hockenson remains a Must Start. Atlanta has struggled to defend tight ends for two straight years, and they’re allowing the 8th-most receptions per game (5.6).

Through eight games with Cousins, Jordan Addison was the WR14 by Half PPR points per game (13.6). Addison is a baller, and he can get loose against anyone, but this QB change makes him a boom-or-bust WR2/3 option. To give us a little hope, Atlanta has struggled to cover Terry McLaurin (6/81), Mike Evans (6/82/1), and DeAndre Hopkins (4/128/3) in the last three weeks.

KJ Osborn has 22 receptions for 243 yards in his last four games without Justin Jefferson (hamstring). In four games with Jefferson healthy, Osborn caught 8 passes for 117 yards.

Ideally, you’re avoiding the Vikings backfield at all costs. Alexander Mattison has finished as the RB37 and RB53 over the last two weeks, with Cam Akers’ usage increasing. In their last two games, Mattison has handled 53% of the backfield expected fantasy points compared to 41% for Akers. Atlanta did just lose stud DT Grady Jarrett (ACL) last week, and allowed 25/128 rushing to the Titans as a result.

Seahawks at Ravens

Must Start

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews – You’re not taking these two out of lineups, but Seattle is playing very stingy defense. With CBs Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both healthy over the last four games, Seattle is allowing just 23.4 yards and a score on 22% of opponents’ possessions. Both of those figures are the lowest in the league since Week 4.

Start ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf – Got back into the lineup last week and was immediately funneled 14 targets. Metcalf is averaging 15.2 expected FP based on his role, but is only actually scoring 11 FPG. Just like Jaylen Waddle last week, Metcalf is a glaring candidate for an eruption game.

Ken Walker – We got thrown a bit of a wrench in this backfield, however, I think it was due to injury. Walker missed a few practices early last week with a calf issue, but was ultimately taken off of the injury report in the lead-up to Week 8. However, rookie RB Zach Charbonnet out-snapped Walker by a 31 to 24 margin. Keep in mind, this is right after Walker hit back-to-back season-highs in snap rate in their two previous games (76% and 80%). I don’t trust anything that Seattle says or does when it comes to injuries, and nothing suggests that Walker’s play merits a demotion. So, I’m waiting a week before panicking.

FLEX Plays

Tyler Lockett – The Ravens run the 7th-highest rate of two-high safety coverage, which will help Lockett in this matchup. Over the last two seasons, Lockett has more targets (68), receptions (49), and yards (555) vs. two-high safety looks compared to Metcalf (42/480 receiving on 64 targets).

Gus Edwards – Crushed the Cardinals last week and ended up hitting the absolute highest end of his range of outcomes in a great matchup. Usage-wise, Edwards has handled 63% of the expected fantasy points in this backfield over the last three weeks. That’s way up from just 42% in Weeks 2-5. Seattle is playing stifling run defense (3.27 YPC allowed | 2nd-fewest), and they just got even better with the addition of DT Leonard Williams. However, as you can tell, this is a brutal week in fantasy at running back. There is enough upward trend in his usage to chase Edwards’ TD chances as a RB2/FLEX.

Zay Flowers – As we’ve noted all season long, Flowers’ downfield targets are not consistent. Yet again last week, Flowers' average depth of target sunk to 5.3 yards. At the very least, he has 4 or more receptions in 6-of-8 games – giving us a consistent floor WR3 in PPR leagues. No defense plays more zone coverage than Seattle (85%), and Flowers is Lamar’s main read against zone. Flowers’ first-read target share vs. zone coverage is 32% (compared to 25% vs. man).

Sit ‘Em

Geno Smith – I kind of want to play Smith as a streamer because this is one of a handful of games where we have two good, starting QBs. It’s hard to get excited, though. Geno’s best fantasy finish this season is QB9. The Ravens present a very tough matchup, too. Baltimore is allowing league-lows in passing fantasy points per dropback (0.24) and yards per attempt (5.45). I’d stream Howell, Minshew, Stroud, and Carr over him.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – As expected, JSN fell back down to part-time usage last week (63% route share), with Metcalf back to full strength. His aDOT was 0.8 yards.

Justice Hill

Odell Beckham

Rashod Bateman

Rams at Packers

FLEX Plays

Aaron Jones – Once again, Jones is limited in practice to start the week with this nagging hamstring issue. He was on a “pitch count” in Week 8. Dillon (53%) led Jones (48%) in snaps by a small margin. Jones projects like a low-end RB2/FLEX option until he can handle a larger workload. The other problem is that Dillon has 6 carries to Jones’ 2 inside-the-10 (red-zone) in their four games played together, which leaves Jones with little TD upside unless he rips off a long score.

Update (Friday, 11/3): Jones is off of the injury report. HC Matt LaFleur has been up front for weeks that he was still limited by his hamstring injury, so it’s notable that his tone has shifted. I expect Jones to handle a season-high workload.

Sit ‘Em

Jordan Love – The Packers offense continued to struggle last week, and Love got no help from his receivers. Romeo Doubs struggled with drops last week and, as a team, they continue to struggle with mental errors. We don’t chart “wrong routes” here at Fantasy Points, but I’d bet that the Packers WR/TE corps would lead the NFL in mental mistakes. Love’s erratic arm only makes matters worse. I’m still leaving the light on for him in fantasy because he’s scrambling a bit. Love has 20 or more rushing yards in 6-of-8 games. However, there are still 4 streamers I’d rather start over than Love (Howell, Carr, Stroud, and Minshew).

Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs – In their three full games played together, Watson leads the Packers in targets (20) by a slim margin over Doubs (18) and Musgrave (15). The problem is that just 65% of Watson’s targets have been catchable, while Doubs is down at 61%. Yikes.

Jayden Reed – Gets the best matchup out of the Packers' WR group. The Rams were struggling against interior receivers before CeeDee Lamb flamed them last week. Los Angeles is allowing the 5th-most yards per game to slot receivers (93.9).

Luke Musgrave

A.J. Dillon

Rams Offense

Matthew Stafford (thumb) won’t go on I.R. – but it seems very unlikely that he will play in Week 9. The Rams have a bye next week, so it makes all of the sense in the world for them to let Stafford heal up.

Los Angeles’ implied team total is 17.8 points, tied with the Jets for 5th-lowest on the slate.

Brett Rypien targeted Cooper Kupp 5 times on 10 pass attempts last week. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they connected just once for 5 yards.

Puka Nacua has some swelling in his knee (from balling too hard) and might be limited this week.

We’re just hoping for some catchable targets with Rypien under center. Green Bay is allowing 1.98 YPPR to slot receivers (5th-most), which is where Kupp lines up 52% of the time. Nacua runs 61% of his routes lined up out wide. The Packers are much tougher against outside receivers (1.7 YPRR allowed | 9th-fewest).

Kupp is still a WR2. Nacua has the worst matchup in totality, and he projects as a WR3.

Their backfield remained split last week. Since Kyren Williams was placed on I.R., Darrell Henderson has led Royce Freeman in snaps by a slim 53% to 47% margin. I’m expecting HC Sean McVay to lean way more on the run this week with Rypien under center, and that leaves both of these RBs in play if you’re desperate for a FLEX option. Ideally, you’re not playing either.

Buccaneers at Texans

Start ‘Em

Rachaad White – Once again, White is tasked with another tougher matchup on the ground. This marks the 6th time in 7 games that he’s faced a defense that is bottom-12 in YPC allowed. Houston is giving up 3.49 YPC (7th-fewest), and they may get DT Sheldon Rankins back this week. At the very least, White has high-end passing down usage (62% route share | 4th-highest among RBs). Mayfield has the 6th-highest checkdown rate (11.4%).

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – With Baker Mayfield regressing over the last three weeks, it certainly increases the risk with these receivers. Still, the ball is being funneled to Evans and Godwin, and it’s really hard to get away from them as WR2/3 plays. Over their last three games out of the bye, Godwin (28%) leads Evans (25%) slightly by first-read target share.

FLEX Plays

Nico Collins – The Texans attempted a season-low 24 passes last week, which absolutely harpooned Collins for fantasy. The underlying metrics still look great for Collins, who was C.J. Stroud’s first read on 35% of his pass attempts in Week 8. On the year, he has seen at least 27% of the first-reads in 5-of-7 games. Tampa’s opponents are averaging 43 pass plays per game against them (7th-most), leaving the light on for a potential bounce back for passing volume here. Collins remains an upside WR2/FLEX option.

Sit ‘Em

Baker Mayfield – The Buccaneers offense has struggled mightily in their last three games out of the bye, producing just 3 TDs across 33 possessions against Detroit, Atlanta, and Buffalo. In this stretch, Mayfield has completed just 59% of his throws for 5.9 YPA after opening up Weeks 1-4 with a 69% completion rate and 7.1 YPA.

Dameon Pierce – As feared, the Texans backfield has devolved into a full-blown committee. Texans OC Bobby Slowik basically said on Oct. 11 that Pierce isn’t a great fit in his outside-zone running scheme, and in the following game (Week 6), Pierce split snaps with Devin Singletary by a 56% to 33% margin (in favor of Singletary). Well, it was more of the same out of the Texans bye. Pierce (43% snap rate) played two more snaps than Singletary (40%) and the duo split carries 12 to 10. Gross. To make matters worse, Pierce had a TD wiped off of the board – only for the upback Andrew Beck to get the carry and score on the next play. Pierce has not been targeted in back-to-back games, and he’s at risk of losing more carries to Singletary. He did not practice on Wednesday (ankle). Singletary is available in 75% of Yahoo leagues and should be stashed everywhere.

Update (Friday, 11/3): Pierce is out. This leaves Singletary as the early-down lead runner and Mike Boone as the passing-down back. Boone led the backfield in routes (7) last week over Singletary (6). I expect Singletary to get between 15-18 carries with goal-line work. At the very least, Singletary has been better than Pierce this season. He is averaging 3.39 YPC with a 46% success rate on his zone-blocking carries this season, which is a full yard better than Pierce (2.35 YPC | 33% success rate). He’s a back-end, volume-based RB2.

Dalton Schultz – In the five games that Tank Dell started and played in full, Schultz has just 12 receptions for 94 yards and 1 TD (on 22 targets). In the two games that Dell either missed or was injured in, Schultz was way more involved with 11/126/2 receiving (17 targets).

Cade Otton

Sleepers

C.J. Stroud – Houston remains stubbornly run-heavy despite their ground game being stuck all season. The Texans have posted a pass rate below expectation in four straight games. If OC Bobby Slowik lets Stroud rip it, this is an awesome spot. Tampa Bay has allowed 250 or more passing yards to 5-of-7 quarterbacks that they’ve faced, with the exceptions being Derek Carr (Week 4, shoulder injury) and Justin Fields (Week 2, meltdown). I like Sam Howell and Derek Carr more as streamers, but Stroud is absolutely in play in 12-team 1-QB leagues.

Tank Dell – With Robert Woods (foot) out again, Dell makes sense as a WR4/FLEX upside swing in the hope that Houston’s pass volume rebounds here. Dell set a season-high with an 89% route share last week, giving us the ingredients we need for a potential spiked week. The Buccaneers are allowing 188.1 yards per game to opposing wide receivers (6th-most).

Commanders at Patriots

Start ‘Em

Sam Howell – After taking four or more sacks in every game, the Eagles got to Howell just once on his 53 (!!) dropbacks last week. Washington (+9.6%) trails only Kansas City and Cincinnati in pass rate over expectation, and no team is averaging more pass plays per game than the Commanders (43.6). This high volume is a big part of the reason for how he’s finished as a top-13 fantasy scorer in 6-of-8 games. Howell catches the Patriots and Belichick without his two best defenders. Since losing CB Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon, the Patriots are allowing 7.1 passing yards per attempt over their last four games. In Weeks 1-4, New England allowed just 6.3 YPA.

Terry McLaurin – After dealing with a turf toe injury in Weeks 1-2, McLaurin has seen at least 21% of the Commanders' targets in 5 of his last 6 games. The strong overall passing volume has propelled McLaurin to see 9 or more targets four times in his last 5 games.

FLEX Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson – Has split the backfield expected fantasy points with Ezekiel Elliott by an exact 60% to 40% margin when the Patriots are trailing. And, it’s a 52/48 split in favor of Stevenson when the Patriots have managed to hold a lead on the scoreboard. Stevenson has 7 carries inside-the-10 compared to 6 for Stevenson. Like always, he’s a low-end RB2/FLEX option.

Sit ‘Em

Brian Robinson – It looked like we were headed towards a dreaded three-way committee here, but Chris Rodriguez did not play a single snap in Week 8. At the very least, Robinson remains in shaky control of this backfield for now. He’s still just a TD-dependent FLEX option, though. New England continues to play stifling run defense (3.31 YPC allowed | 4th-fewest).

Jahan Dotson – After bottoming out two weeks ago with a goose egg, Dotson has 8 and 10 targets in his last two games. He looked like his 2022-self last week (8/101/1 receiving) with the same quick-twitchy explosiveness we saw in his rookie season. I’m not saying that you can trust him enough to put him back into a lineup, but with Curtis Samuel (toe) out, the window is cracked back open for Dotson to make a second-half surge. McLaurin and Dotson have both seen 24% of the first-reads in the last two games followed by Samuel (17%).

Mac Jones – This is as bad of a week for quarterbacks that I can remember at the mid-season mark. The Commanders are giving up a league-high 0.49 passing FP per dropback and just traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young. With all of that said… I can’t play Jones in 1-QB leagues. The Patriots have the least talented WR group in the league after losing Kendrick Bourne (ACL).

Ezekiel Elliott – TD-or-bust.

Hunter Henry

Sleepers

Logan Thomas – Once again, I’m into Thomas as a streamer. He’s just under 50% available on Yahoo. The Patriots have surrendered 22 receptions for 218 yards (on 26 targets) to tight ends over the last four weeks. Curtis Samuel (toe) is out.

Demario Douglas – Led the team in routes and first-reads (29%) last week. With Kendrick Bourne (ACL) out, Douglas is the Patriots only decent receiver remaining. DeVante Parker is ineffective and will miss this game with a concussion. New England is so desperate that Jalen Reagor (20) ran more routes than JuJu Smith-Schuster (12) last week. Tyquan Thornton and Kayshon Boutte were healthy scratches.

Bears at Saints

Must Start

Alvin Kamara – In five starts since his return from suspension, Kamara has ripped off five straight top-10 scoring weeks in PPR leagues with finishes of RB8 > RB7 > RB10 > RB3 > RB4. He already easily leads all RBs in receptions (39) over McCaffrey (32). The Bears are playing great run defense (3.05 YPC allowed | fewest), but for fantasy, all that we care about is the fact that they continue to allow a ton of dump-offs to running backs. Chicago is allowing the 5th-most receptions (6.0) and the most receiving yards (62.1) on a per-game basis.

Start ‘Em

Derek Carr – With such a rough week at quarterback on tap, Carr gets elevated. Chicago did help their pass rush with the addition of DL Montez Sweat. However, their secondary remains one to target. The Bears have allowed 18 or more FP to 6-of-8 QBs that they’ve faced. Coming off his best game of the year, I’m teeing up Carr as a streamer.

Chris Olave – Once again, Olave “could have” posted a monster fantasy score last week. Between a ball hitting him in the helmet and Carr over-throwing him twice on deep balls, we were left with 5/46 receiving. He is the most glaring WR candidate for a get-right game in fantasy football. By XFP, Olave should be averaging 17.4 FPG (Half-PPR).

FLEX Plays

DJ Moore – Since exploding for 8/230/3 vs. Washington with Justin Fields in Week 5, Moore has posted 5/51, 8/54, and 4/55 over the last three weeks with Bagent. The good news is that Moore continues to be funneled first-read targets 34% of the time (last 3 weeks). The bad news is that vertical passing in this offense has not been great without Fields. With Bagent under center, Moore has just 3 receptions for 57 yards on 8 targets on throws of 10+ yards downfield. With Fields in Weeks 1-5, Moore caught 10-of-16 targets for 264 yards on throws of 10 or more yards.

Sit ‘Em

Michael Thomas – Ideally, you have options with more upside. Thomas has settled in as one of the most consistent WR4/FLEX options in fantasy. He’s finished no higher than WR21 in Half-PPR scoring, but no lower than WR49.

Tyson Bagent – Fire up Saints D/ST.

D’Onta Foreman – Well, I thought that this would be a 1A/1B committee between Foreman and Roschon Johnson last week. What happened was way worse. Johnson (36%) led the way in snaps by a small margin over Foreman (30%) and Darrynton Evans (27%). Disgusting. This is not a great matchup, either. New Orleans is allowing 3.63 YPC with a 42% success rate vs. zone-blocking runs. Khalil Herbert (ankle) is eligible to return off of I.R. next week.

Cole Kmet – This is a polar opposite matchup compared to last week. The Saints are playing stifling defense against tight ends again. New Orleans is allowing just 33.9 yards per game to TEs (2nd-fewest) after they gave up a league-low 30.8 YPG in 2022.

Sleepers

Rashid Shaheed

Taysom Hill – YOLO TE kept rolling last week with 9/63/2 rushing. Hilariously, he has finished as the TE9 > TE5 > TE2 over the last three weeks. We’re largely left with Hill’s rushing role since Juwan Johnson returned last week and ran 17 routes (2 targets). That limited Hill to 10 routes (1 target). There are only 5 TEs that actually project reasonably well this week, so I’d rather chase Taysom’s TD upside than chase a lot of the “traditional” streamers.

Cardinals at Browns

Browns Offense

Deshaun Watson took all off the starter reps on Friday, and he will start. After attempting just 5 passes (and nearly throwing 2 INTs) in his last start vs. the Colts in Week 6, Watson hasn’t played a full game since Week 3. He’s been dealing with a rotator cuff issue, and with the general uncertainty about his performance and health, I’m not putting into a lineup in 1-QB leagues.

Given all of the QB injuries – and upcoming byes – Watson is a stash for the stretch run. The Browns have a pretty nice schedule from now on.

This is objectively a great spot, though. Arizona has allowed their opponents to score (a FG or TD) on 46% of their possessions, which is the 2nd-highest rate. Only the Chargers (8.4) and Broncos (8.1) are allowing more pass yards per attempt than the Cardinals (7.9).

Amari Cooper tallied 17/243/1 receiving (on 24 targets) in Weeks 1-3 with Watson. In those three games, Cooper received 27%, 33%, and 35% of the first-reads. That’ll play. He’s an upside WR2 with a borderline WR1 ceiling if Watson is back to 100% healthy. Arizona is allowing the 4th-most yards (138.1) and 5th-most receptions (10.5) on a per game basis to perimeter receivers.

Dononvan Peoples-Jones was traded mid-week and David Bell is out with a knee injury, so we’ll see the 3rd round rookie Cedric Tillman play this week. Veteran Marquise Goodwin will mix in more, too.

Elijah Moore hasn’t finished higher than WR38 [Half-PPR] in a single game this year.

David Njoku showed some chemistry with PJ Walker and has 7 or more targets in three of his last 4 games. With his targets on the rise, Njoku is back in play as a streamer to see if he can carry some of this momentum with Watson.

The Browns backfield was a disgusting three-way committee last week. Jerome Ford is off of the injury report, however, Kareem Hunt continues to mix in heavily. Over the last three weeks, Hunt has 36 carries (Ford has 37). Most importantly, Hunt is the Browns red-zone back. In this span, Hunt has played on 72% of the snaps in the red-zone.

Hunt and Ford are FLEX plays.

Cardinals Offense

On Friday, Clayton Tune was the QB throwing to starters while Kyler Murray warmed up with the backups. The spread has moved in favor of the Browns (from -8 to -10).

Emari Demercado has a toe injury, and he will not play. Keaontay Ingram and former-Saints RB Tony Jones will form the league’s least-talented duo this week. Fun. Please avoid this backfield.

James Conner will come off of I.R. next week.

Michael Wilson (shoulder) didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday, which leaves Marquise Brown as a volume-based WR3/FLEX play in a tough matchup. He has at least 7 targets in six-straight games.

Trey McBride had a full-blown breakout last week (10/95/1 receiving), and received a whopping 46% of the Cardinals first-read targets. That's the single-highest FR share by a TE in a game this season. As expected with Zach Ertz (I.R.) out, he was a full-time receiver with an 88% route share. His small sample success looks great over the season. McBride ranks second (2.26 YPRR) only to Travis Kelce in yards per route run (2.97).

The Cardinals have targeted their tight ends on 32% of their pass attempts. That will likely come down with Ertz out, but it is tied with the Chiefs for the 2nd-highest rate (Falcons 36%).

While the long-term arrow is pointed straight up for McBride, there is obvious uncertainty with Tune under center, and the matchup isn’t easy. Still, with four teams on a bye, McBride is definitely on the radar.

I’d stream David Njoku and Logan Thomas ahead of McBride this week, but there are only 8 TEs I’d prefer over McBride for the rest of the season – Kelce, Hockenson, Andrews, LaPorta, Kittle, Goedert, Engram, and Kincaid.

Colts at Panthers (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Adam Thielen – Has 9, 14, 8, 13, 13, and 11 targets in his last six games. The Colts play the 3rd-highest rate of zone coverage (84%) ,and Thielen remains the only Panther that can produce consistently right now. Thielen is averaging a solid 1.93 yards per route run vs. all zone coverages… while the next closest Panther WRs are Laviska Shenault (1.29) and Terrace Marshall (1.19).

Start ‘Em

Jonathan Taylor – After he ripped off a chunk, 42-yard gain early in the game, it seemed like we were on track for Taylor to explode. Instead, the Colts went away from him in the second half. It was bizarre. Taylor looks fully healthy, and he played on 61% of the snaps over Zack Moss at 39%. However, he only got 1 carry in the 3rd and 4th quarter vs. the Saints. It wasn’t injury-related because he’s not on the injury report heading into Week 9.

Moss is going to continue to limit Taylor’s touch count, but we really could not ask for a better matchup. Carolina is giving up 154.7 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs (2nd-most).

The Panthers are allowing a league-high 5.64 YPC against man-blocking rush attempts, which sets up Taylor for an explosive run or two. 41% of Taylor’s carries have been on man/gap blocking concepts, and he’s averaging 4.72 YPC on those runs.

Michael Pittman – After sludging through 8/40/1 on 13 targets vs. the Browns awesome perimeter CBs last week, the matchup flips in Pittman’s favor in Week 9. The Panthers are allowing 2.51 yards and 0.43 fantasy points per route run to outside receivers (2nd-most).

FLEX Plays

Zack Moss

Josh Downs – In four games with Minshew under center, Downs has 8/57, 5/21, 5/125, and 7/72 receiving. He has seen at least 22% of the targets in 3-of-4 games.

Panthers backfield

The Panthers made a play-caller change going into their bye as HC Frank Reich gave up play-calling duties to OC Thomas Brown. A former running back (and RBs coach), Brown made a massive change in this backfield vs. Houston. Chuba Hubbard started and played on a near bell-cow 67% of the snaps, while Sanders played just 12 snaps in total. The problem is that Hubbard was largely ineffective, taking his 15 carries for just 28 yards.

Reich said earlier in the week that they will ride the “hot hand” in this backfield – but, what do you do if all their hands are ice cold? Sanders will eventually work his way back onto the field, but for now, he’s deep in the doghouse.

For this week, Hubbard is an uninspiring, volume-based RB2/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Bryce Young – Hopefully, Young can continue to progress from last week’s success. Young posted season-bests so far in YPA (7.6) and completions over expectation (+10.7%).

Sleepers

Gardner Minshew – In his four full starts, Minshew has notched scoring weeks of QB27 (vs. Baltimore), QB15 (vs. Jacksonville), QB3 (vs. Cleveland), and QB18 (vs. New Orleans). This is the fourth-best game on the slate from a pace, volume, and passing angle – but the concern here is that the Colts RBs just score all of their fantasy points because it’s such a good spot for their backfield.

Jonathan Mingo – Posted a season-high 62 yards last week. The Colts have been a weekly target for us, and they’re allowing the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FP to outside WRs (+7.1 per game). D.J. Chark has an elbow injury and didn’t practice on Wednesday.

Giants at Raiders (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Saquon Barkley – Over the last three weeks, the Raiders have allowed 26.9 FP to Patriots RBs, they gave up 3 TDs and 31.5 FP to D’Onta Foreman, and Jahmyr Gibbs just shredded them to the tune of 27.4 FP.

Davante Adams – After the worst four-game stretch of his career, the Raiders' first order of business will be to get Adams the rock. In Aidan O’Connell’s first and only start in Week 4, Adams received 13 targets (33% share), and, promisingly, 9 of those targets were catchable. Adams finished with 8/75 receiving in that game, which sounds incredible right now.

Josh Jacobs – The rookie O’Connell checked the ball down to Jacobs a whopping 11 times in his one start in Week 4, and he converted those looks into 8 receptions for 80 yards. We’re going to need that level of passing involvement because the Raiders have not been able to spring Jacobs into big holes consistently at all. He has two rushing gains of 15 or more yards this season.

FLEX Plays

Jakobi Meyers – This will even out as the sample size gets larger, but it is slightly concerning that Meyers has just 6 targets from O’Connell on 52 pass attempts this season. Meyers is a proven baller, but I’m downgrading him this week with the QB change.

Sit ‘Em

Daniel Jones – Was cleared for contact and is ready to go. However, Jones remains a SuperFlex/2QB league play after missing the last 3 games. Coming off a neck injury, we can’t have any confidence that the Giants will let him run much. New York is tied with the L.A. Rams for the 5th-lowest implied team total (17.8) on the slate. Darren Waller (hamstring) will miss the next few weeks.

Aidan O’Connell – The Raiders have made a permanent QB and play-caller change after owner Mark Davis cleaned Vegas’ house this week. QBs coach Bo Hardegree will take over as the play-caller for the rest of the season. O’Connell struggled under pressure in his first start (Week 4 vs. Chargers), like most rookies typically do. He took 7 sacks on 9 pressures, which will have to be cleaned up.

Giants WRs – With Darren Waller (hamstring) out, we’re going to see if any of these Giants receivers can actually step up. Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson remain the only two remotely on the radar.

Michael Mayer – Stash only. I remain very high on Mayer’s talent. The rookie will play and not be blocked by Austin Hooper for the rest of the season. Mayer ran a route on 75% of the pass plays last week, a season-high.

Cowboys at Eagles (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – His knee injury isn’t going to keep him from playing, but the Eagles will be smart with his rushing again. They have a bye in Week 10. Hurts had 4 carries last week, which is the 3rd-fewest he’s had in a start in his career.

A.J. Brown – Dallas runs the 3rd-highest rate of man coverage (39%), which gives Brown a boost in this matchup — as if he needed another boost. Jalen Hurts is targeting Brown on an absolutely insane 46% of his pass attempts when this duo sees man coverage.

CeeDee Lamb – Has a great chance to stay hot. The Eagles continue to struggle to defend slot receivers (17.3 FPG allowed | 2nd-most). Lamb has seen at least 27% of Dallas’ first-read targets in three straight games.

Start ‘Em

Dak Prescott – On such a brutal week for QBs, Prescott projects as a rock-solid QB1. The Eagles still have a good pass rush, but their secondary is allowing the 7th-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.42).

Tony Pollard – After playing in yet another blowout, Pollard was limited to 54 scrimmage yards on 13 touches last week. Dallas has only played in two close games this season (Week 3 vs. Arizona and Week 6 vs. Chargers), in which Pollard played on 86% and 80% of the snaps. Those snap figures both marked season highs. If this game stays as close as the spread implies, Pollard will bounce back. Unfortunately, he will likely have to live off of volume instead of efficiency because the Eagles are continuing to play great run defense (3.52 YPC allowed | 10th-fewest).

D’Andre Swift – Since Week 1, Swift has handled at least 17 touches in seven straight games.

Dallas Goedert

Jake Ferguson

FLEX Plays

DeVonta Smith – Welcome back. Even with A.J. Brown going nuclear, Hurts and Smith took advantage of the great matchup and finally hit some splash plays last week en route to 7/99/1. However, I’m pushing Smith back to the WR2/3 FLEX zone this week. This matchup is just massively in Brown’s favor.

Sit ‘Em

Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup – The Eagles have struggled to defend perimeter receivers, however, there isn’t enough here to get excited. Gallup has been held under 25 yards in 5-of-7 games. Cooks has scored in back-to-back, but he has yet to see more than 18% of the targets in a single game.

Bills at Bengals (SNF)

Must Start

Josh Allen – After picking up a (minor) shoulder injury with a slight increase in his rushing load last week, the Bills might scale back Allen again. He has 14 carries in his last two games after running it just 22 times in his previous six starts. Allen is passing at the highest level of his career. After struggling badly in Week 1 vs. the Jets, Allen has completed 72% of his passes for 7.9 YPA over his last 7 starts. He’s taken just 7 sacks in this span, and he has a 16:7 TD-to-INT ratio.

Stefon Diggs – Through 8 games, Diggs is on pace for a career-high 181 targets.

Joe Burrow – Brrr. The Bengals have won (and covered the spread) three straight games. It wasn’t just the dot show last week. Burrow rushed for 43 yards, and his usual mobility allowed the Bengals to go back under center for the first time consistently all season. The Bills just allowed 20 FP to Mac Jones, while Baker Mayfield scored 19.4 FP against them last week (largely in garbage time). Wheels up.

Ja’Marr Chase – After a slow start (due to Burrow’s injury), Chase has exploded for 50/586/4 on 68 targets in his last 5 games. Dating back to last year, he’s seen at least 8 targets in 21 of his last 22 games.

Joe Mixon

Start ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid – His connection with Allen has looked near perfect for the last two weeks (13/140/1 on 15 targets). Without Dawson Knox (wrist) last week, the Bills just turned Kincaid into a full-time player. Kincaid got the Sam LaPorta WR/TE hybrid usage that we all knew he could excel in. Last week, Kincaid lined up all over the place – out wide (on 29% of his routes), in the slot (38%), and as a traditional in-line TE (27%). The Bengals are allowing the 3rd-most yards per target (8.7) and 3rd-highest catch rate (79.7%) to TEs. There are only 4 TEs I’d play ahead of Kincaid this week — Kelce, Andrews, Goedert, and Hockenson.

James Cook – My sense is that the Leonard Fournette signing is an indictment on Latavius Murray. He looked like he had some burst left in September, but Murray has gained 66 yards on his 23 carries over the last month. It’s abundantly clear that the Bills do not want Cook in an every-down role, and Fournette is certainly a threat to Cook’s receiving role because the Bills will trust the veteran in pass protection. For this week, I like Cook quite a bit as a RB2/FLEX play. The Bengals are allowing 4.81 YPC (3rd-most).

FLEX Plays

Gabe Davis – Interestingly, the Bills changed up Davis’ usage last week. His average depth of target was a season-low 6.3 yards, but those shallower looks led to 9/87/1 on 12 targets. Davis’ previous season lows in aDOT were 8.8 and 11.3 yards, so this truly is a big change. We’d love it if the Bills are going to get Davis more involved in the short and intermediate areas, especially against one-high safety looks. Traditionally, this offense is one-dimensional and just flows through Diggs against Cover-1 and Cover-3. But last week, Davis got 9 of his 12 targets vs. one-high safety looks.

Tee Higgins – Returned closer to full-time usage (5/69 on 6 targets), but was still a little limited coming back from his rib injury. Higgins ran a route on 63% of the pass plays last week, and he should continue to ramp up to his usual 90% full-time role soon. In four games where he’s played more than 60% of the snaps, Higgins has a 21% target share and 12.1-yard aDOT. Chase’s target share is much higher (29%), but he’s getting shallower targets (8.2-yard aDOT).

Sit ‘Em

Irv Smith

Tyler Boyd

Sleepers

Khalil Shakir – As a part of the Bills ditching their 2-TE offense, they elevated Shakir as their full-time slot receiver and he responded in a big way with 6/92 receiving. Feel free to chase him as a WR4/FLEX play in what could be the highest-scoring game of the week.

Chargers at Jets (SNF)

Must Start

Keenan Allen

Austin Ekeler – The Jets force the 2nd-highest checkdown rate (14.9%), and are allowing the 4th-most receptions (6.4 per game) and 6th-most receiving yards (46 per game) to opposing RBs. In nine games without Mike Williams (since 2020), Ekeler is averaging 5.8 receptions and 43.2 yards (on 7.6 targets) on a per game basis. Josh Palmer (knee) was ruled out.

Breece Hall – Your patience was rewarded. At worst, Hall is the RB4 on the slate after Kamara, Barkley, and Ekeler.

Start ‘Em

Justin Herbert – Has finished as a top-8 weekly scorer in 5-of-7 games already. For comparison, he finished as the QB8 or higher in just four starts in all of last season. His ceiling is definitely lowered here, though. The Jets are holding opposing QBs to the 3rd-fewest schedule-adjusted FP per game (-2.8,). Josh Palmer (knee) is out, which will force Herbert to run the entire offense in the shallow/intermediate areas this week. The Jets are the best secondary in the league against deep passes. Still, with four teams on a bye and a slew of injuries, Herbert remains a top positional play.

Garrett Wilson – They aren’t always accurate targets, but the ball is only going to one receiver here. Wilson has 7 or more targets in six straight games, and he is averaging 5.7 receptions and 72.5 yards per contest. The Chargers have allowed 9 TDs to WRs in 7 games, and two of those matchups were against the O’Connell-led Raiders and Bagent-led Bears.

Sit ‘Em

Zach Wilson

Allen Lazard

Gerald Everett

Tyler Conklin

Sleepers

Quinten Johnston – Josh Palmer (knee) is out. I’m adding Johnston as a stash after he’s been mass dropped. On Yahoo, Johnston is on the waiver wire in 75% of leagues. This is a worst-possible matchup, so you’re ideally not starting him, but he will be elevated to full-time status on the perimeter. Hopefully, the Chargers start working him on shallow crossers and drag routes over the middle to get him in space. The Jets are holding outside wide receivers to a league-low -9.4 schedule-adjusted FP per game.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.