Week 7 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 7 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s get to it.

Jaguars at Saints (TNF)

Must Start

Travis Etienne

Start ‘Em

Alvin Kamara – Since returning to the field in Week 3, Kamara is the RB9 by snap rate (72.7%), and he leads all running backs in expected fantasy points (22.5 Half-PPR). The good news is that his role is incredible. The bad news is that Kamara has yet to pop an explosive run of 15 or more yards, and his advanced metrics are down year over year. On his 52 attempts, Kamara is averaging 2.02 yards after contact, and 0.15 missed tackles forced on a per-carry basis. Last year, those figures were 0.18 MTF and 2.65 YAC per carry. You’re not going away from Kamara as a volume-based RB1. However, this looks like another spot where he will struggle for efficiency. The Saints are down starters Ryan Ramczyk and James Hurst along the offensive line. The Jaguars are playing stifling run defense and are limiting opposing RBs to 3.25 YPC (5th-fewest).

Chris Olave – Outside of the Week 4 game where Carr was hurt and shouldn’t have played, Olave has shown decent chemistry with the Saints' new QB. In five games with a healthy Carr under center, Olave is averaging 9.4 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 82 yards per game. The Jaguars are getting rinsed for a league-high +11.8 schedule-adjusted FP to outside wide receivers.

Calvin RIdley / Christian Kirk – With Zay Jones (knee) out, the targets will be condensed around these two. Over the last four weeks, Ridley and Kirk both have seen 25% of the first-read targets. Trevor Lawrence (knee) is trending towards playing, so, fire these two into lineups as WR2’s.

Evan Engram

Trevor Lawrence – May be limited mobility-wise. Still, with six teams out on a bye, Lawrence remains a back-end QB1. He’s finished no worse than QB17 but no higher than QB10 in 5-of-6 starts. So, we are likely still waiting for a big ceiling performance here. New Orleans is allowing the 8th-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback and the 5th-fewest passing yards per game.

FLEX Plays

Michael Thomas – Only the Commanders are giving up more yards per game (158.8) to outside wide receivers than the Jaguars (149.3). Thomas has not finished higher than WR31 or any lower than WR49 in any game this season, but has a chance for his best game here. Thomas runs more of his routes lined up outside (67%) than Olave (57%) and Shaheed (56%).

Sit ‘Em

Derek Carr – This is a rough slate for QBs after the top-6, but Carr remains a SuperFlex-only play.

Jamaal Williams – Did not look explosive before injuring his hamstring. However, he still might retake his role quickly. Rookie Kendre Miller has taken his 24 carries for 73 yards.

Sleepers

Rashid Shaheed – Coming off a season-high 81% route share. If you’re desperate for some upside on a tough week for byes, you can chase a big play from Shaheed. The great matchup is just an added bonus. The Jaguars have allowed 11 receptions on deep targets 20+ yards downfield. Olave has 15 deep targets, while Shaheed has 12 and Thomas has 7.

Taysom Hill – YOLO streamer with Juwan Johnson (calf) out again. Hill set season-highs in routes and targets last week.

Falcons at Buccaneers

Must Start

Bijan Robinson – Usage has been solid besides inside the red zone. Tyler Allgeier has doubled up Robinson in carries by a 14 to 7 margin inside-the-20. Bijan has just one carry inside-the-5 all season. Until he gets more money carries, he’s a back-end RB1.

Start ‘Em

Mike Evans – Has seen at least 24% of Mayfield’s targets in all four games that he’s finished. This is a tougher matchup, but Evans is not someone we’re taking out of lineups.

Drake London – Atlanta is doing a good job of keeping London heavily involved. He’s now seen at least 23% of the targets in 4 of his last 5 outings. Because the Falcons have to throw more – they’ve trailed on 87% of their offensive snaps – their passing volume has ticked way up. Desmond Ridder is averaging a normal 33.2 pass attempts per game after we struggled through Mariota’s 23.1 A/G last season. Keep rolling London as a WR2/FLEX.

Kyle Pitts – Has notched TE9 and TE3 scoring weeks after failing to finish better than TE16 in the opening month. With a little confidence building, Pitts is back in as a top-8 play at the position. This is a great spot. The Buccaneers are allowing the 6th-most yards and 4th-most fantasy points on a per-game basis to slot wideouts. Pitts is running 60% of his routes lined up in the slot.

FLEX Plays

Chris Godwin – The Buccaneers have officially stopped using Godwin in the slot. Over the last two games, Godwin has lined up inside on just 16.7% of his routes. This would be a great matchup if we had his old usage. The Falcons are allowing 12.1 FPG to opposing outside receivers (3rd-fewest) but opposing slot wideouts are racking up 15.2 FPG (8th-most). In their four games together, Evans has out-targeted Godwin by a wide 38 to 26 margin. This leaves Evans as a WR2, while Godwin is closer to a WR3/FLEX.

Rachaad White – Played on 79% of the snaps last week out of the Buccaneers' bye, which is the 2nd-highest rate of his season. We always default to, “well… he’s out there,” and his job security is still not in question after Ke’Shawn Vaughn took his 6 carries for 7 yards last week. Sean Tucker hasn’t played a snap since Week 3. This is another tough matchup on the ground for White, which has been a theme all year here. White has faced a top-12 run defense by YPC allowed in all five games, with 3-of-5 units (Chicago, Detroit, and Philadelphia) allowing fewer than 3.2 YPC. Atlanta has been sturdy against the run and is permitting just 3.34 YPC (7th-fewest).

Sit ‘Em

Desmond Ridder – Finished as QB5 through volume (307 yards on 47 attempts) last week. I would not chase him as a streamer in 1-QB leagues. Ridder has been off-target on 19.5% of his throws from a clean pocket – only Kenny Pickett (27%) and Anthony Richardson (22.8%) are worse. A league-high 7.4% of Ridder’s throws from a clean pocket are turnover-worthy.

Baker Mayfield – Came back down to earth last week against a talented Detroit defense. This is an easier matchup, but Mayfield is still off of the streaming radar. He’s finished as the QB14 > QB18 > QB26 > QB7 > QB27 in weekly scoring.

Tyler Allgeier

Sleepers

Jonnu Smith – In play as a bye-week streamer. Smith has at least 5 targets in five straight games, but is still a part-time player. Remember, Kyle Pitts is a WR. Smith is the traditional TE, and he has only run a route on 58% of the Falcons pass plays this season. Pitts’ route share is 77%. Tampa Bay’s linebacking group is solid vs. tight ends (4.8 yards per target allowed | 4th-fewest).

Raiders at Bears

Must Start

Josh Jacobs – Has 20 or more touches in 5-of-6 games but has yet to eclipse 3.6 YPC in a single game. This will be yet another game with tough sledding. The Raiders’ offensive line is generating the 5th-fewest adjusted yards before contact per carry (0.87) and ranks 24th in ESPN’s run-blocking win rate metrics (69%).

Start ‘Em

Davante Adams – I’m setting the over/under on Adams’ first-read target rate with Brian Hoyer at 44.5%.

DJ Moore – Will be funneled targets by Tyson Bagent. Last week, Moore drew 6 targets on just 14 pass attempts (42.8% share). Since the team moved on from Chase Claypool three weeks ago, Moore has been the first-read target a whopping 46.4% of the time.

D’Onta Foreman – Foreman played on 61% of the snaps last week and split work with Darrynton Evans (39%). Travis Homer (hamstring) will play this week, however, he could remain the #3 RB here. Homer has only played on special-teams this season. You can absolutely play Foreman as a volume-based, back-end RB2. The Raiders are surrendering the 10th-most yards per carry (4.03).

FLEX Plays

Jakobi Meyers – Floor is way lower without Garoppolo under center. However, you know this matchup is primo. Meyers remains a WR2/3 option.

Sit ‘Em

Cole Kmet – TD or bust streamer like always. Over his last 41 games dating back to the 2020 season, Kmet has scored more than 10 Half-PPR points just four times when he has failed to score a touchdown.

Darnell Mooney – Has seen fewer than 13% of the targets in five straight games.

Tyson Bagent – Stream Raiders D/ST.

Sleepers

Michael Mayer – Ran a route on a season-high 67% of the pass plays last week (5/75 receiving).

Browns at Colts

Start ‘Em

Amari Cooper – Received a strong 32% of the first-read targets and 48% of the air yards from PJ Walker last week. With that type of volume, we’re going right back to Cooper as a WR2/3 play. This matchup is great. The Colts are allowing a league-high 11.5 receptions and 142.8 yards (7th-most) on a per-game basis to opposing outside receivers.

FLEX Plays

Michael Pittman – Has seen 28% of the Colts' targets with Gardner Minshew under center. This is an absolutely brutal matchup, though. The Browns are giving up a league-low 9.5 Half-PPR points per game to opposing outside wide receivers. We also have a little bit of fragility with Pittman against man coverage here. He’s more of a zone beater. This season, Josh Downs leads the Colts in targets per route (0.28) vs. man coverage over Pittman (0.20). No team is playing more man coverage than the Browns (42.1% of pass plays). Pittman is more of a good WR3/FLEX this week as opposed to the top-20 positional play he’s been recently.

Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss – As expected, the Colts went with a more split backfield in Week 6. Zack Moss (50% snap rate) had a slight lead over Jonathan Taylor (42%) as the duo split touches with 14 apiece. Unfortunately, the Colts have another brutal matchup on the ground on tap next against the Browns. Luckily, Gardner Minshew is checking down a ton, which keeps both of these backs on the fantasy radar. Taylor has always been an explosive play waiting to happen in the passing game. We fully expect Taylor to take over this backfield in the coming weeks, but until he does, Moss will retain standalone RB3/FLEX value

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt – As feared, this was way more of a split backfield in Week 6. Ford’s snap rate declined to 51% while Hunt was on the field 37% of the time. Ford lost a lot of ground in the passing game, running just 12 routes to Hunt’s 9. And, Hunt out-snapped Ford by a 5 to 0 margin in the red zone. This is shaping up to be a true two-way committee which leaves both as RB3/FLEX options. The Colts are a strong front seven against the run (3.34 YPC allowed | 6th-fewest), so we’ll need these backs to get dump-offs. Kareem Hunt (thigh) did not get a full practice in all week and could be less than 100%.

Sit ‘Em

Deshaun Watson – Got in a full practice on Friday. However, it’s really hard to put him into lineups at potentially less than 100%. There has weirdly been zero information from Browns beat writers regarding this injury. I’d stash Watson this week with the hope he can return as a QB1 for the rest of the season.

Gardner Minshew – Fire up Browns D/ST.

PJ Walker

Elijah Moore – Has not finished higher than WR40 in Half PPR scoring in any game this season.

David Njoku – Has not finished higher than TE16 in any game.

Sleepers

Josh Downs – Leads the Colts in targets per route (0.28) vs. man coverage over Pittman (0.20). This is a tough spot for Downs, though. The Browns are also giving up the fewest fantasy points per game (7.3) to slot receivers. He’s a fine desperation WR4/FLEX.

Lions at Ravens

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – After a rough Week 1, Lamar has notched top-10 scoring weeks in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Mark Andrews – Will benefit the most from this matchup. Detroit is allowing the 3rd-most receptions (9.2) and 4th-most yards (94.8) per game to slot receivers. That lines up perfectly for Andrews’ unique usage. Andrews runs 82% of his routes lined up in the slot. On the whole, Detroit is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points per game to TEs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Sam LaPorta – The Ravens are playing great defense against tight ends, but you can’t take LaPorta out of lineups. He’s on pace for 82 receptions, which would break the all-time rookie record for a tight end set by Keith Jackson (81 receptions in 1988 season).

Update: After dealing with a calf injury last week, LaPorta is off of the injury report.

Start ‘Em

Jared Goff – Despite the tougher matchup on the road, Goff remains a back-end QB1 with six teams out on a bye. Baltimore is giving up a league-low 10.4 FPG to opposing quarterbacks, however, that comes with a big asterisk. The Ravens have faced the easiest slate of quarterbacks in Weeks 1-6. They went up against CJ Stroud in his first start, a gimpy Joe Burrow, Gardner Minshew, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis. This is easily Baltimore’s toughest test.

Jahmyr Gibbs – He’s set to return after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury. David Montgomery (ribs) will not play. The Lions have a bye in Week 9, so there is a chance that the team lets Montgomery rest the next 2 games to get right for their stretch run. Gibbs got the start in place of the injured Montgomery back in Week 3, and the rookie played on a season-high 60% of the snaps. Promisingly, Gibbs played on 5-of-7 snaps inside-the-10 in that game. With that type of usage, put Gibbs into lineups as a RB2.

Update: Gibbs is off of the injury report. #2 RB Craig Reynolds (hamstring, toe) is entering this game at less than 100% healthy. Reynolds was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday.

FLEX Plays

Zay Flowers – Has seen at least 21% of the targets from Lamar Jackson in 5 of 6 games.

Sit ‘Em

Gus Edwards and Justice Hill – This backfield remains a mess. Keaton Mitchell was activated last week, but only played on special teams. This might be a 3-way committee soon. Edwards and Hill are desperation, TD-or-bust RB3/FLEX options. Detroit is allowing 2.94 YPC (2nd-fewest), and they remain the only defense that has not allowed a run of 15 or more yards.

Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham – Both are still running behind Nelson Agholor. Last week, Agholor was on the field for 62% of the pass plays compared to 51% for Bateman and just 35% for OBJ.

Jameson Williams – Looked explosive last week and had a very nice adjusting TD catch. Still, we’re left wanting way more opportunities here. Williams ran fewer routes (19% route share) than Josh Reynolds (71%), Marvin Jones (27%), and Kalif Raymond (25%) in Week 6.

Sleepers

Josh Reynolds – Until Jameson Williams is fully ramped up, Reynolds will maintain his role as the Lions' only trustworthy perimeter receiver opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown. He remains a WR4/FLEX option for deep leagues.

Bills at Patriots

Must Start

Josh Allen – Running way less. Through six games, Allen is averaging just 3.7 carries per game. By comparison, he was running it 7.1 times per game in his first five seasons.

Stefon Diggs – Ridiculous target volume is going his way. Diggs has seen at least 28% of the targets from Allen in 5-of-6 games.

FLEX Plays

James Cook and Latavius Murray – This backfield unexpectedly devolved into a committee in Week 6. Cook (51%) held the slight lead over Murray (48%) in snaps and carries (14 to 12). Worryingly, Murray out-snapped Cook by a 6 to 2 margin in the red zone. If this usage holds and this is a true 1A/1B committee, Cook is no longer a back-end RB2. He’s more like a weak FLEX. Murray getting most of the red-zone usage (4 carries to Cook’s 1 inside-the-20 in Week 6) puts him on the radar as a RB3/FLEX desperation option if you want to chase a TD. This is a tough matchup on the ground, which really puts a damper on both. The Patriots are allowing 3.37 YPC (8th-fewest).

Rhamondre Stevenson – Settled in as a TD-or-bust FLEX. Stevenson has split carries (55 to 33) and targets (17 to 14) with Ezekiel Elliott when the Patriots are trailing. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Stevenson has retained a strong role in the red zone. He’s out-snapped Elliott by a 75% to 21% margin inside-the-20.

Gabe Davis – TD regression hit hard last week, however, this matchup is much better. The Patriots have dramatically reduced their usage of man coverage over the last two weeks without CB Christian Gonzalez – going from using man coverage 40% of the time in Weeks 1-4 to 29% in their last two games. Davis is averaging a pedestrian 1.56 YPRR vs. man coverage but a much stronger 2.19 vs. zone. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Mac Jones – Bills D/ST is the #1 play on the slate.

Ezekiel Elliott

Dalton Kincaid and Dalton Knox – Kincaid should be back after missing one game with a concussion.

Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki – Buffalo has allowed 2 TDs to TEs over the last 24 games dating back to Week 1 last season. Hunter Henry (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday.

DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Demario Douglas – Parker (68% route share) lost his full-time role last week since Bourne is emerging and Thornton returned to the lineup. Thornton will remain a part-time player (43.2% route share last week). Slot WRs Smith-Schuster and Douglas should clear concussion protocol and play in Week 7.

Sleepers

Kendrick Bourne – Remains the only Patriots WR with a pulse. Bourne’s route share has spiked to season-highs of 88% and 84% over the last two weeks. The Bills have allowed 31/375/1 receiving (on 40 targets) to opposing Jaguars and Giants receivers without CB Tre White over the last two weeks.

Commanders at Giants

Must Start

Saquon Barkley – I was wrong last week when I thought Barkley would be limited off of a high ankle injury. The Giants unleashed him back as a bell-cow. Barkley played on his usual 80% of the snaps. He is the only running back who has played on 100% of the snaps inside-the-10 (red-zone) in 3 starts.

Start ‘Em

Brian Robinson – Profiles as one of the stronger RB2 plays on the slate. Robinson has out-snapped Gibson by a 58% to 36% margin when the Commanders are ahead on the scoreboard. Most importantly, Robinson is the clear lead RB in the red-zone. He’s handled 6-of-7 carries inside-the-10. The Giants are allowing 4.96 YPC (4th-most) and have given up 7 rushing TDs inside-the-10 (2nd-most).

Terry McLaurin – After seeing just 5 targets the week prior, McLaurin was funneled a season-high 11 targets for a whopping 48% share in Week 6. That target share will obviously fall some, but it’s clear that the Commanders are trying to right their wrongs from earlier in the season. This matchup sets up for McLaurin to continue his surge. He leads the team in targets vs. man coverage with 14 looks (26.4% share) while the next closest WR is Curtis Samuel with 7 targets (for a 13.2% share).

Sam Howell – If you can’t stream Jordan Love off of the wire, Howell and Geno Smith are the top options for streamers this week. He’s going to take sacks, like always, but the matchup signals that this is a good spot. Howell is averaging 8.3 YPA vs. man coverage but that dips to 6.8 YPA against zone. The Giants love to blitz and play the 5th-highest rate of man coverage (35%). It certainly hasn’t been pretty at times, but Howell has finished as the QB13 or better in weekly scoring in 5-of-6 games.

Darren Waller – Do you really have a better option? Tyrod Taylor has targeted Waller 11 times on 51 pass attempts (22% target share) and has connected for 8/74 receiving. There is enough small sample hope to leave the lights on.

FLEX Plays

Curtis Samuel – Will eventually stop scoring touchdowns, but he’s absolutely a passable WR3/FLEX with six teams out on bye. Samuel’s ceiling is limited, though. Just keep in mind that his target share has not peaked above 20% in a single game, but he has seen at least 14% of Howell’s targets in 5-of-6 outings.

Sit ‘Em

Logan Thomas – Target share has ping-ponged between 23% > 7% > 22% > 4% in his four full games. He’s technically a part-time player, too. Thomas’ route share is 66%, which is only 17th-highest among TEs. He’s a shaky fantasy play.

Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt – The Giants have finally stopped rotating receivers and are using Slayton and Hyatt as their primary outside wideouts. Hyatt’s route share has risen in five-straight games and hit a season-high 75% in Week 6. If you’re absolutely desperate, Slayton or Hyatt can be used as WR4/FLEX hail mary’s based on the matchup. Washington is allowing league-highs in fantasy points (28.4) and yards (158.8) to opposing outside receivers. Commanders top CB Kendall Fuller (knee) did not practice on Wednesday.

Jahan Dotson

Sleepers

Wan’Dale Robinson – PPR-only dart. Robinson has 25 targets on 92 routes but with a lowly average depth of target of 3.2 yards. He has 141 yards in four games.

Cardinals at Seahawks (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Kenneth Walker – Came out of the bye and got bell-cow usage. Rookie Zach Charbonnet still worked as a backup only and is now dealing with a hamstring injury. Walker played on a season-high 76% of the snaps last week. Scoring has completely flipped in Walker’s favor after Geno Smith hogged all of the scores last season. Walker has the 2nd-most carries inside-the-10 (red-zone) with 16, and he’s scored 6 TDs on those attempts. Last year, Walker had 16 carries inside-the-10 all season, and he scored just 2 TDs.

Zach Charbonnet (hamstring) did not practice all week.

Start ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett – The Cardinals have been absolutely hammered by opposing wide receivers as of late. Over the last three weeks, no defense has allowed more receptions (53) or yards (692) to opposing receivers than Arizona.

Update: You are not taking Metcalf out of lineups. However, he is entering this game at way less than 100% and is apparently dealing with a hip issue along with the ribs injury he’s battled all season.

FLEX Plays

Marquise Brown – Has received double-digit targets in 4 of his last 5 games. However, this matchup is a lot tougher with Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both fully healthy. Over their last two games with Woolen and Witherspoon, Seattle has allowed just 5.62 yards per pass attempt to the Giants and Bengals. In Weeks 1-3 without their two starting CBs, Seattle allowed 7.77 YPA. Brown is a volume-based WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Josh Dobbs – SuperFlex/2QB only. Kyler Murray could return as soon as Week 8.

Emari Demercado – Demercado actually led this backfield in snaps (43%), but you wouldn’t have thought that based on how the carries shook out. Demercado got just 3 touches while Keaontay Ingram came back from a neck injury and led the backfield (10/40 rushing). Veteran Damien Williams (8/36 rushing) got bumped up from the practice squad and even got a few drives of work. Gross. We were hoping this would be a two-man backfield with James Conner (knee) on I.R. The Cardinals appear to just want Demercado in a passing down role, which doesn’t have any standalone fantasy value in this offense. He ran 23 routes compared to just 10 for Ingram in Week 6.

Keaontay Ingram – Seattle is allowing a league-low 2.73 YPC. If you’re playing Ingram, you’re hoping for a goal-line plunge.

Zach Ertz – The Cardinals have made a change at tight end. Trey McBride (58% snap rate) played over Ertz (46%) as the duo both got 5 targets in their loss to the Rams. McBride deserves a legitimate chance and a long leash to see if the Cardinals have anything for the future here. Ertz was once a great player, but this is how I thought this tight-end group would play out with Arizona looking more toward the future.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Played on a season-high 75% of the Seahawks' pass plays out of the bye. Seattle is starting to use more 3-WR personnel, and JSN is earning just enough looks to really cap Metcalf (20% target share) and Lockett (19%).

Michael Wilson

Sleepers

Geno Smith – Only the Broncos (8.8) and Chargers (8.5) are allowing more yards per pass attempt than the Cardinals (8.1). I prefer Jordan Love and Sam Howell as streamers, but Geno is a strong 3rd option. The Cardinals are one of 5 defenses allowing 20 or more FP per game to QBs (along with the Chargers, Broncos, Bears, and Commanders).

Steelers at Rams (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Cooper Kupp

Start ‘Em

Puka Nacua – Even with Kupp back, Nacua has seen 30% and 29% of the targets over the last two weeks. This offense is solely condensed around these two receivers. The Steelers are getting hammered for the 4th-most fantasy points per game to WRs.

FLEX Plays

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – These two have been listed as ‘sits’ for their last few games but we have to lift them up to FLEX status. This is a brutal week for fantasy. Warren has out-scored Harris in all 5 games in PPR leagues and that is solely because he’s the primary passing down back. This is a compartmentalized backfield split, which is brutal for our game. Warren has 23 targets on 71 routes while Najee has been targeted just 9 times on his 67 routes. On the flip side, Najee has out-snapped Warren by a 63% to 25% margin in the red-zone. But… getting into the red-zone remains a massive problem for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a grand total of 8 carries inside-the-20 in five games. That’s a league-low.

Diontae Johnson and George Pickens – In his career, Pickens is averaging just 8.1 Half-PPR points per game with Diontae Johnson. In 18 games with Johnson active, Pickens is seeing just 5.1 targets per game. Johnson is reportedly full-go after missing the last four games with a hamstring injury. The Rams have not been the sieve secondary that I thought they would be this season. Cleveland (9.5 FPG) is the only secondary that is allowing fewer fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers than Los Angeles (11.5 FPG). Kenny Pickett’s continued struggles make both of the Steelers receivers WR3/FLEX options.

Sit ‘Em

Matthew Stafford – Once again, we are left wanting more from Stafford in fantasy. His “real” play remains stellar. Puka Nacua dropped a TD on a laser from Stafford last week. Through six games, he’s finished no worse than QB22 but no higher than QB15. He remains one of the best SuperFlex/2QB starters. I’d stream Jordan Love, Geno Smith, and Sam Howell over Stafford.

Zach Evans – When asked whether or not Evans would be the starter on Wednesday, Rams HC Sean McVay said that, “I wouldn’t say that… all four guys are possibilities.” Those possibilities include old friend Darrell Henderson and recent signee Myles Gaskin. That’s in addition to Royce Freeman (who was on the practice squad). Kyren Williams might be headed to I.R. and the team just lost Ronnie Rivers (knee | I.R.). The Rams have a bye in Week 10. We’re tentatively expecting Evans to “lead” this backfield in Week 7 but I have no confidence putting him in fantasy lineups. Keep in mind, Evans was a healthy scratch in Weeks 1-4. This seems like a full-blown competition, and if someone gets the hot-hand, McVay will roll with them.

Tutu Atwell

Tyler Higbee

Kenny Pickett – A league-high 27% of his passes have been charted as off-target from a clean pocket. The next worst quarterbacks are Anthony Richardson (22.8%) and Desmond Ridder (19.5%). Is that bad?

Sleepers

Pat Freiermuth – Check to see if he’s on waivers in your league. Freiermuth returned to full practice on Wednesday. The Rams have been vulnerable to tight ends and are allowing the 2nd-most yards per game (69).

Update: Freiermuth is headed to I.R. after suffering a setback with his hamstring injury. In Week 4, Connor Heyward and Darnell Washington split routes (47% share to 42%) and targets (4 to 2). Both of those figures were in favor of Heyward.

Chargers at Chiefs (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Austin Ekeler – Welcome back. Ekeler played his usual 72.1% of the snaps in his return last week. By expected fantasy points, Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable in two starts (21.7 Half-PPR points per game) than Christian McCaffrey (20.3).

Keenan Allen – Over the last two games without Mike Williams, Allen has seen 37.1% of the first-read targets while Josh Palmer is at 22.9%.

Justin Herbert – Missed multiple throws and had three chunk plays to Josh Palmer negated due to offensive penalties last week. Despite it all, Herbert notched his fourth scoring week inside the top-8 fantasy quarterbacks. Kansas City is playing much-improved defense, but you’re not taking Herbert out of lineups.

Patrick Mahomes – Through six games, Mahomes is the QB5 by FPG (20.2). His ceiling has not been as high as we’re used to. However, the Chargers just allowed Dak Prescott to finish as the QB1 last week. This comes after this unit allowed 21 or more FP to three-straight quarterbacks (Tagovailoa, Cousins, and Tannehill) in Weeks 1-3 before facing rookie Aidan O’Connell in Week 4.

Travis Kelce – Over the last four weeks, Kelce has 37 targets. The next closest Chief is Rashee Rice (21), followed by Kadarius Toney (14) and Isiah Pacheco (13).

Start ‘Em

Isiah Pacheco – Has taken over this backfield over the last three weeks. He’s handled 62% of the snaps and gotten a strong 68% of the backfield XFP in this span. Jerick McKinnon is working on third downs, but the majority of the early down passing usage is going to Pacheco. He ran 39 routes to McKinnon’s 13 on 1st and 2nd downs in Weeks 4-6. Most importantly, Pacheco is the clear goal-line back. He’s gotten 10 of the Chiefs 12 RB carries inside-the-10 this season.

FLEX Plays

Josh Palmer – In six career starts without Mike Williams, he’s averaging 8.5 targets and 67.2 yards per game.

Sit ‘Em

Quentin Johnston – The rookie only ran a route 44% of the pass plays out of the bye.

Kadarius Toney – In five full games, he’s run a route on 27%, 33%, 29%, 40%, and 28% of the pass plays.

Skyy Moore – Route share has dropped in six straight games (64% > 62% > 61% > 51% > 47% > 37%). Mecole Hardman making a return might take Moore completely out of the offense.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Gerald Everett

Sleepers

Rashee Rice – The only Chief receiver with any juice. Among the 120 WRs with at least 50 routes, Rice ranks 7th-best in yards per route run (3.14). The only problem is that Rice is caught up in the Chiefs WR rotation hell. Rice’s route share over the last four weeks is 37%. That could spike to a season-high with Justin Watson (elbow) out.

Packers at Broncos (4:25pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Jordan Love – The MNF meltdown is still burned into minds, however, you could not dial up a better bounceback matchup than this one. Every single QB not named Zach Wilson has scored 16.1 or more FP vs. Denver this season. The Broncos are generating the 3rd-worst pressure rate below expected (-5.7%).

Christian Watson – This is a dream spot. Love has largely been accurate when given a clean pocket. When he’s kept clean, Love is delivering a catchable pass on 79.9% of his attempts. However, that dips to a lowly 48.1% catchable throw rate when he’s pressured. Denver’s lackluster pass rush helps their passing game as a whole. The Broncos are allowing 62% completion rate on throws of 20+ yards (2nd-highest). Watson saw a ridiculous 70.3% of the air yards in his first full start in Week 5.

FLEX Plays

Aaron Jones – Remains limited in practice out of the bye. 28-year-old RBs and hamstring injuries don’t mix. Hopefully, Jones can get back to a full practice at some point this week. You don’t need me to tell you how good this matchup is. If we get good reports in the lead up to Sunday, dial up Jones as high upside RB2/FLEX.

Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin – As expected, this backfield was a full-blown rotation in Week 6. Jaleel McLaughlin outright led the group in snaps (41%), meanwhile, Williams had 10 carries to McLaughlin’s 7. Samaje Perine had some sort of minor leg injury vs. the Chiefs, but he is not on the injury report. Perine ran 6 routes to Williams’ 3 last week. Gross. This is an extremely rough week for running backs – which leaves both Williams and McLaughlin available as boom-or-bust RB2/FLEX options. The Packers are allowing 149 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs (3rd-most).

Romeo Doubs – Before the bye, Doubs still led the team in routes (26) over Watson (24). So, if you are hurting at receiver through byes, feel free to chase him as a WR3/FLEX.

Mid

Courtland Sutton – He’s averaging a lowly 45.8 yards per game and looks steps behind his 2019-2020 form (69.3 YPG). Sutton’s 4 touchdowns are masking the fact that he has been open or wide open on just 37.8% of his targets. By comparison, Jerry Jeudy has been charted as open/wide open on 44.8% of his targets. The Packers are limiting opposing boundary receivers to -5.38 schedule-adjusted FP (9th-fewest).

Jerry Jeudy – Sutton has 25 targets compared to Jeudy’s 24 over the last four weeks. By expected fantasy points, Sutton has the slightly more valuable role (13.5 Half-PPR XFP per game) than Jeudy (12.5). However, Jeudy has the better matchup than Sutton in totality. Green Bay is allowing the 11th-most schedule-adjusted FP to slot receivers (+1.38).

Sit ‘Em

Russell Wilson – SuperFlex/2QB only.

AJ Dillon – TD-or-bust RB4/FLEX if Jones is active.

Jayden Reed – Ran a route on a season-low 47% of the pass plays in Week 5 with Watson full-go.

Marvin Mims – Men only want one thing and it’s disgusting (more Mims). He ran 7 routes last week. Brandon Johnson ran 9. What are we doing here?

Adam Trautman – The Broncos rushed Greg Dulcich back from a hamstring injury and he had a setback on the short week. He will be placed on I.R. again. Trautman ran a route on 71% of the Broncos pass plays without Dulcich in Weeks 2-5, however, he only earned 8 targets in those four games.

Sleepers

Luke Musgrave – There is a chance he gets put back into HC Matt LaFleur’s doghouse. There is also a chance that Musgrave is the best streamer on the slate. Denver’s linebacking group is not athletic enough to cover good tight ends. The Broncos are allowing an other-worldy 85% catch rate and 10.4 yards per target to TEs. Both of those figures are league-highs.

Dolphins at Eagles (SNF)

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill – The Eagles pass rush will need to win because they are so beat up in the secondary. CB Darius Slay (knee) could return this week but this has not been the same unit all season due to injuries. FS Justin Evans and slot CB Avonte Maddox are on I.R. Philadelphia is allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to receivers (+7.3).

Jalen Hurts – Has rattled off five straight top-10 scoring weeks. The Eagles' pass rate has continued to creep up, and they are now tied with the Rams and Seahawks for the 7th-highest pass rate over expectation (+5%). LT Lane Johnson’s absence looms large, though. Hurts was pressured on a season-high 46% of his dropbacks last week.

A.J. Brown – 31/564/2 on 44 targets over his last four games. Absurd. Dolphins CB Xavien Howard (groin) left last week’s game early and did not practice on Wednesday.

Start ‘Em

Raheem Mostert – Has played on 79% of the Dolphins snaps inside-the-10 (red-zone) in three games with De’Von Achane out or in a limited role. That dipped to 30% in Weeks 3-5 when he split the backfield with Achane. Jeff Wilson is expected to make his debut but Mostert should continue to dominate the majority of the snaps.

D’Andre Swift – Was shut down on the ground last week but, once again, his receiving skills are a massive boost to his fantasy floor. Swift has seen at least 11% of the targets in four of his last 5 games. This is a pretty good spot for Philadelphia’s run game, though. Miami just allowed 106 yards to Carolina’s dormant ground game.

Jaylen Waddle – After seeing just 14.5% of the targets in his first 3 games, Waddle’s usage has spiked with 33% and 28% of the targets in the last two weeks. That’s more like it. You would not expect this, but Waddle has underperformed based on his role, with 75.5 expected fantasy points (vs. 53.4 actual). The big-scoring games are coming.

DeVonta Smith – This is such a good bounce-back spot. Smith has taken a back seat to A.J. Brown in many regards this season, however, this matchup should help favor him. Brown has dominated targets (23) vs. man coverage compared to Smith (10). The target distribution is a lot more narrow against zone coverages – Brown has 36 targets compared to 32 for Smith. Miami predominantly runs Cover-3 and Cover-6 zone.

Dallas Goedert – Has finished as the TE15 or worse in 5-of-6 games. Yet, there are only a few TEs I’d start ahead of him this week (Kelce, Andrews, LaPorta, Hockenson, and Kittle). Miami is allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to tight ends (+2.2).

49ers at Vikings (MNF)

Must Start

Brandon Aiyuk – Aiyuk averages 7.8 targets per game in contests where Deebo Samuel was out/limited (vs. 6.2 T/G when Deebo plays).

TJ Hockenson – Led the team with a whopping 0.32 targets per route last week. That’s Kelce territory. Hockenson’s TPRR was 0.24 in Weeks 1-5.

Start ‘Em

Brock Purdy – After last week’s letdown against a tough Browns defense in the rain, we are going right back to Purdy as a back-end QB1. This is a complete opposite spot. The Vikings have allowed at least 16 FP to every QB that they’ve faced until last week (when Justin Fields got hurt).

George Kittle – Would become Must Start if Deebo and/or CMC don’t play. Last season, Kittle averaged 18.0 fantasy points per game when Deebo was out/limited. Kittle averages 7.2 targets per game without Deebo in the lineup (vs. 5.3 T/G when Deebo plays).

Alexander Mattison – After it seemed like Cam Akers was starting to emerge, Alexander Mattison got bell-cow usage in Week 6 with a 79% snap rate. This was after playing on 51% of the snaps the week prior. He’s a back-end, volume-based RB2 here.

Jordan Addison – As expected, Addison was elevated to full-time status last week with Jefferson out. Addison and KJ Osborn both ran 29 routes in Week 6. However, Addison tied for the co-lead in first-read target share (23.9%) with Hockenson. The Vikings should be forced to the air a ton here as touchdown underdogs.

49ers RB situation

Christian McCaffrey did not practice on Thursday or Friday due to oblique/ribs injuries. The 49ers don’t think this will be a long-term issue for CMC, however, he seems to be in danger of missing this game.

After missing the last few weeks with a knee issue, Elijah Mitchell is not even on the injury report in the lead up to Week 7. He should be full-go.

When asked this week, HC Kyle Shanahan intimated that Mitchell is going to play a big role, saying, “Elijah has earned a ton with us over these years. When he’s been healthy, has been as good of a back as there is. He’s had a hard time staying healthy, but I also can’t take away anything from [Jordan Mason].”

Deebo Samuel (shoulder) also missing the game would lock in Mitchell and Mason for all of the backfield work if CMC does not play.

Sit ‘Em

Kirk Cousins – Without Justin Jefferson (hamstring), Cousins is a SuperFlex/2QB league only play in this matchup. The 49ers are playing stellar pass defense again. San Francisco is allowing just 0.24 passing fantasy points per dropback (2nd-fewest), and their front-seven is generating pressure at the 2nd-highest rate (43%).

Sleepers

KJ Osborn – Absolutely in play as a bye week WR3/4 fill in.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.