Week 6 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 6 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

In as concise a manner as possible, we will go through the outlook of every fantasy-relevant player.

This piece will replace Stat Pack going forward because it’s so comprehensive. All of the data-driven research that you would typically read in Stat Pack will instead go in here.

This article will be updated at the end of the day on Friday and Saturday.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s get to it.

Broncos at Chiefs (TNF)

Must Start

Patrick Mahomes – Has finished as QB7, QB12, QB5, QB17, and QB13 through five games. This is an obvious spot for him to hit a top-5 ceiling. Over the last two seasons, Mahomes is averaging 326.1 passing yards per game in the eight contests where the Chiefs are favored by 9 or more points (vs. 280.1 YPG in all other games).

Travis Kelce – He might be limited and has shown signs of slowing down, but he’s still churned out scoring weeks of TE4, TE2, TE11, and TE5.

Start ‘Em

Isiah Pacheco – Once again projects as a top RB2 on the slate. Pacheco has handled 9 of the Chiefs 15 carries inside-the-10, giving him massive TD upside against a Broncos defense that has given up a league-high 12 TDs to opposing RBs. The Chiefs have the 3rd-highest team total on the Week 6 slate (29 implied points), trailing only the Dolphins (31) and Bills (29.3).

FLEX Plays

Jerry Jeudy – Finally ramped up to full-time (90% route share in Week 5). His route share in Weeks 2-4 was 77% as he worked back from a hamstring injury. He leads the team in first read target share (28%) over Weeks 2-5, giving him a slight edge over Sutton (22% FR share). The Chiefs run the 7th-highest rate of man coverage (34.2%), which gives Jeudy a little boost. Over the last two seasons, Jeudy has out-targeted Sutton by a 21 to 17 margin vs. man coverage (in 14 games played together).

Courtland Sutton – Struggled in the worst possible matchup last week (1/13 receiving on 3 targets), as expected. This is a far easier spot, though, and the Broncos will have to throw to keep up with the Chiefs. The opposing quarterback vs. Kansas City has attempted 35 or more passes in 4-of-5 games, with the lone exception being Justin Fields (22 in Week 3).

Sit ‘Em

Javonte Williams – After practicing in a limited fashion all week with a hip injury, Williams was close to playing in Week 5 but ultimately sat out. Rookie RB Jaleel McLaughlin was the lone bright spot for the Broncos offensively last week and provided their only big play (22-yard TD from Russell Wilson). McLaughlin played well again, but he was vastly out-snapped by vet Samaje Perine (60% snaps). Perine largely plays in passing situations because he’s trusted in protection, while McLaughlin (33% snaps) got the majority of the early-down work. Javonte Williams is likely to return in Week 6, but the Broncos backfield is headed towards a messy 3-way committee. Javonte’s fantasy stock for 2023 is on life support because McLaughlin has earned a larger role while Perine will continue to be involved on pass downs. Injuries and bye weeks make this a really tough week, but I’d avoid using Williams, McLaughlin, or Perine in lineups.

Skyy Moore – Route share has dropped in five straight games (64% > 62% > 61% > 51% > 47%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Kadarius Toney – In four full games, he’s run a route on 27%, 33%, 29%, and 40% of the pass plays.

Rashee Rice – Continues to produce when given the opportunity (4/33/1 on 5 targets in Week 5). Despite showing promise, Rice actually saw his role reduced last week. He was down to a 19% route share vs. the Vikings after running a route on 46% (Week 3) and 49% (Week 4) of the pass plays in his two prior games. Rice could be a big piece of this offense as their slot man down the stretch and remains the only Chief wideout I’d chase in fantasy. Rice’s 2.88 yards per route run ranks 11th-best, and he leads all qualifying receivers in targets per route run (0.40).

Adam Trautman – Broncos will go back to 2-TE heavy with Greg Dulcich (hamstring) due back off of I.R.

Marvin Mims – Ran just 12 routes in Week 5 while Brandon Johnson ran 21.

Jerick McKinnon – Hasn’t seen more than 3 targets in a game after averaging 4 T/G in 2022.

Sleepers

Russell Wilson – Has been a great 2-QB/SuperFlex play with weekly finishes of QB16, QB3, QB19, QB9, and QB9. This is a strong week for quarterbacks, so I’d doubt you have to go here in 10- and 12-team leagues, but Wilson is a fine streamer again. Wilson looks like his old self in many ways – he will have periods of great play mired by streaks of inconsistency. The bulk passing numbers already look way better. He already has 11 passing TDs through five games, and his 6.7% TD rate is in line with his career average (5.9%).

Ravens at Titans (9:30 am ET | London)

Must Start

Lamar Jackson – Ravens receivers dropped eight passes in Week 5, two of which were for TDs.

Mark Andrews

Start ‘Em

Derrick Henry – Fantasy floor is lower than ever now with Tyjae Spears mixing in so much. Henry is averaging 22% fewer expected fantasy points per game this season (13.2 XFP Half-PPR) compared to last year (16.9 XFP), with the rookie Spears siphoning away 9.2 XFP per game. Henry is more of a RB2 as opposed to RB1, with the Titans sitting as 4-point underdogs. In his career, Henry averages 22.2 fantasy points per game in wins vs. 11.9 FPG in losses. The Ravens are the only team yet to allow a rushing TD.

DeAndre Hopkins – Starting to gel with Tannehill after a rough start and ankle injury that limited him in Weeks 2-3. As expected, the volume is great. Hopkins ranks 8th among WRs in target share (29%) and 9th in team share of air yards (43%). Treylon Burks (knee) did not practice Wednesday.

FLEX Plays

Zay Flowers – He’s seen at least 21% of the targets in 4-of-5 games with a 9.0-yard average depth of target. Even with Beckham and Bateman back last week, Flowers ran 73% of his routes lined up outside. He’s a really strong WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Gus Edwards / Justice Hill – In Week 5, Edwards (12 carries) led the group in carries over Hill (7 carries). However, Hill played more snaps in totality (55% vs. 43%) because he’s the passing down back. Last week, Hill ran 16 routes (4 targets) to Edwards 8 routes. With rookie RB Keaton Mitchell potentially making his debut off of I.R. this week, this backfield could become an even bigger nightmare. If forced, I’d play Hill over Edwards. In their three games together, Hill has out-snapped Edwards by a 14 to 3 margin inside-the-10 (red zone).

Odell Beckham – Has earned just 11 targets on 76 routes.

Rashod Bateman – Ran 11 routes last week. He’s behind Nelson Agholor (25 routes in Week 5).

Ryan Tannehill – Has finished as the QB21 or worse in 4-of-5 games.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhene – His route share dipped to 60% with slot man Kyle Phillips (32% route share in Week 5) back off of I.R.

Chig Okonkwo – Ravens are allowing the 2nd-fewest yards per game to TEs (24.4).

Commanders at Falcons

Must Start

Bijan Robinson

Start ‘Em

Logan Thomas – Has target counts of 11, 3, and 8 in three full games. Washington is spreading the ball around a ton, so Thomas is going to have some week-to-week fragility with his target volume, but there is more than enough here to make him a viable streamer once again. Atlanta has been hammered by opposing tight ends, allowing the 2nd-most receptions (7.0) and 5th-most yards (62.6) on a per-game basis.

FLEX Plays

Brian Robinson – His scoring is game-script dependent. Robinson has finished as the RB14, RB1, and RB15 in Washington’s two wins and close loss to Philadelphia, while he’s only managed RB30 and RB32 scoring weeks in their two blowout losses to Buffalo and Chicago. Antonio Gibson has out-snapped Robinson by a 49% to 45% margin when trailing, but that flips to 59% to 37% (in Robinson’s favor) when leading. The Falcons are favored to win by 2.5 points and are playing stout run defense (3.33 YPC | 6th-fewest), leaving Robinson as a low-end RB2/FLEX option.

Drake London – It shouldn’t be a surprise that in Desmond Ridder’s best game of his career, he funneled the ball to his two best players in London (9 targets) and Kyle Pitts (11). After seeing just one target in Week 1, London has seen at least 23% of the Falcons targets in three of his last 4 outings. We still don’t have any confidence in Ridder, but I am confident in London’s ability to win against the Commanders' boundary cornerbacks. After getting ethered by D.J. Moore, Washington is allowing league-highs across the board in yards and fantasy points allowed to outside receivers.

Sit ‘Em

Sam Howell – Has been a bit of a roller coaster through five games. On the one hand, Howell’s sense of accuracy and timing has been very solid – he ranks 7th in perfectly accurate throws (54%) and tied for 3rd in adjusted completion rate (for drops and throwaways) at 79.7%. The bad news is that Howell is taking a lot of sacks, six of which have been directly credited as his fault. That’s tied with Zach Wilson for the league high. Howell is a great streamer in easier matchups, but Atlanta’s improved defense leaves a little pause for concern here. The Falcons have faced the Panthers, Packers, Lions, Jaguars, and Texans and are allowing the 4th-fewest passing yards per game (199.2) and 6th-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2).

Desmond Ridder

Terry McLaurin / Jahan Dotson – We’re left with McLaurin as a desperation FLEX play while Dotson is droppable in shallow (10-team) leagues. Washington is among the most pass-heavy teams, but they barely throw to their two best players. Howell is a rookie QB essentially, so this is largely a coaching problem. To boot, this matchup is really tough. AJ Terrell and Jeff Okudah are playing great perimeter coverage, limiting opposing outside wideouts to the 2nd-fewest yards per game (69.2).

Kyle Pitts – Notched his first decent score (TE9) last week after finishing as TE17 > TE43 > TE16 > TE31 in Weeks 1-4. While Pitts sees great usage (in theory) because he’s used as a wide receiver, he still has very little touchdown upside and is being somewhat blocked by Jonnu Smith. To be fair, Pitts and Jonnu Smith play somewhat different positions – Smith is the in-line TE and is only running a route on 59% of the pass plays. Still, there is only one ball to go around, and we have to always worry about the quality of the targets here. Over the last four weeks, Pitts has 29 targets to Smith’s 27. Both of these Falcons TEs are in play, but neither projects inside of our top-12 at the position.

Sleepers

Curtis Samuel – Deep league option only but does have the best matchup here. Atlanta is allowing the 5th-most FPG to slot receivers (15.8) but the 5th-fewest to outside wideouts (12.3).

Vikings at Bears

Must Start

Justin Fields – The Bears are using way more play-action to define reads for Fields, and it’s working. Over the last two weeks, 30.2% of Chicago’s pass attempts have come off of play-action compared to just 16.3% in Weeks 1-3. This season, Fields has completed 70.3% of his throws for 8.4 yards per attempt off of play-action (vs. 59% completion rate for 7.3 YPA without PA).

DJ Moore – Good things happen when you funnel the ball to your best player. Moore has seen a ridiculous 27%, 29%, and 35% of the Bears targets over the last three weeks. He has seen 25 first-read targets in this span, while Cole Kmet is the next closest teammate with 11.

TJ Hockenson

Start ‘Em

Kirk Cousins – Losing Justin Jefferson hurts his ceiling here, but this matchup is just too good to pass up. Chicago has allowed 18 or more FP to every QB they’ve faced this season. Bears S Eddie Jackson and CB Jaylon Johnson are both questionable after missing Weeks 4-5.

Cole Kmet – Over the last three weeks, the Bears have boiled down the passing offense to their two best players. D.J. Moore has 26 targets, Kmet has 16, while no other Bear receiver has more than 8 (Darnell Mooney / Khalil Herbert) in this span.

Jordan Addison – Was already out-producing K.J. Osborn despite not being a full-time player. Despite running 36 fewer routes than Osborn this season, Addison has 28 targets (19/249/3 | 1.65 YPRR) compared to Osborn’s 25 targets (13/166/2 | 0.92 YPRR). Addison is an upside play right on the WR2/3 borderline with a big boost to his role coming up against a Bears secondary that has allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers.

FLEX Plays

Alexander Mattison – His snaps have fallen in back-to-back games with the addition of Cam Akers. After playing on 76% of the snaps in Weeks 1-3, Mattison fell to 69% in Week 4 and was on the field for a season-low 51% share in Week 5. Not great. The only reason that Mattison got drafted in the 5th/6th round of drafts was due to volume, and that is now falling off of a cliff. Over the last two weeks, Mattison is averaging just 10.6 expected fantasy points (Half-PPR) per game based on his role. In Weeks 1-3, Mattison averaged 19.8 XFP per game. That’s the difference between the RB8 and RB28 by XFP. With his role in the balance, Mattison is nothing more than a TD-dependent FLEX.

K.J. Osborn – We’re expecting a few more targets to come his way with Justin Jefferson out, but don’t get carried away here. Osborn is a fine WR3/FLEX and really gets boosted because of this matchup.

Bears RB Situation

Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer are all out.

That leaves just D’Onta Foreman, Darrynton Evans, and FB Khari Blasingame left in the backfield.

After being a healthy scratch Weeks 2-5, Foreman has fresh legs. Darrynton Evans spent last season in Chicago and knows the system. Foreman should get most of the work, but there is definitely some fragility here. Outside of one game vs. the Eagles, the Vikings have played strong run defense (3.38 YPC allowed | 8th-fewest).

If you’re playing him, you’re hoping that Foreman plunges into the end-zone once or twice.

All of the Bears RB injuries make Fields a better play. Fields hasn’t topped 60 yards rushing in a game yet and he will have to carry more of the load here.

Sit ‘Em

Darnell Mooney – Just missed on a few splash plays last week, but Moore and Kmet are dominating targets.

Brandon Powell – Very deep league option only, but he got 5 targets on 13 routes after Justin Jefferson went down. Osborn and Powell will split slot receiver duties, with Addison mainly working outside.

Seahawks at Bengals

Must Start

Ja’Marr Chase

Ken Walker – Has some of the best touchdown upside on the slate. In his first four games, Walker handled 85% (11-of-13) of the Seahawks carries inside-the-10. Only three running backs – Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, and Rhamondre Stevenson – have gotten a higher share of their team's carries (100%) inside-the-10.

Start ‘Em

D.K. Metcalf – Saw just 18% of the targets in Weeks 1-4, but that could have been due in part to an injury to his ribs. Metcalf notched WR21, WR40, WR22, and WR25 scoring weeks to open the season and is completely off of the injury report entering Week 6. He will get a massive matchup upgrade if Bengals stud CB Chidobe Awuzie (back) misses another game.

Joe Mixon – Has finished no worse than RB26 but no better than RB15 through five weeks. The big scoring games are coming with Burrow getting back to health. Over his last four games, Mixon is the RB6 in snap rate (77%), and he’s handled all 17 of the Bengals carries inside-the-20. Seattle is playing stellar run defense (2.71 YPC allowed | fewest), so we really need Mixon to cash in a few goal-line plunges for him to really hit a big fantasy score this week.

Joe Burrow – After showing his usual pocket mobility and accuracy downfield last week, it’s safe to say that Burrow is close to 100% healthy for the first time all year. This game has massive shootout appeal with Burrow back and with both sides leaning extremely pass-heavy. The Bengals are 5th in pass rate over expected (+7.4%), while the Seahawks are letting Geno cook (+5.2 PROE | 8th-highest). Seattle did struggle against the pass to open the season, but it should be noted that both CBs Devon Witherspoon (out Week 1) and Riq Woolen (injured Weeks 2-3) missed time.

FLEX Plays

Tyler Lockett – Leads the Seattle WR group in expected fantasy points (15.2 Half-PPR) over Metcalf (11.7 XFP per game) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7.9 XFP), so we have to expect a bounceback at some point here. Lockett does get the best matchup. Even with Smith-Njigba primarily lining up inside, Lockett is still running 36% of his routes lined up in the slot compared to just 14% for Metcalf. The Bengals have not yet surrendered a TD to a perimeter receiver, but have allowed 5 TDs to slot wideouts.

Sit ‘Em

Tee Higgins – He got in a full practice on Friday and is a game-time decision. If he plays, there is certainly a risk that Higgins is just a decoy or limited as he deals with a painful midsection/ribs injury. Keep in mind, the Bengals have a bye next week. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Earned 20 targets in his first four games but on a lowly 2.8-yard average depth of target. Only Kadarius Toney (2.2-yard aDOT) has a lower target depth than JSN out of 85 WRs.

Irv Smith – Returned from a hamstring injury last week and got his cardio in (27 routes, 0 targets).

Zach Charbonnet

Noah Fant – In a 3-way TE by committee. Fant (40.4% route share) leads the group in targets with 11, followed by Colby Parkinson (34% route share | 10 targets) and Will Dissly (34% route share | 5 targets).

Sleepers

Geno Smith – Finished as the QB26 > QB9 > QB20 > QB27 in Weeks 1-4, but has spiked week scoring potential with this being a potential shootout.

Trenton Irwin / Tyler Boyd – If Tee Higgins (ribs) misses again, these two are fine desperation plays. Boyd (75% route share) and Irwin (69%) operated as the #2 and #3 receivers with Andre Iosivas (22%) a distant #4. The Bengal's ground game may struggle up against Seattle’s tough front seven, so I’m expecting Burrow to have to throw a bunch. Boyd has such a low ceiling, though – going for 39, 33, 34, and 51 yards in the four games that Higgins missed (or was limited in) over the last two seasons.

49ers at Browns

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey – Has played on 85% of the snaps and is averaging 26.1 Half-PPR points per game in the games that Elijah Mitchell has missed or had a limited role.

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk / Deebo Samuel – In the nine games that this duo has played with Brock Purdy and alongside CMC and Kittle, Aiyuk leads the 49ers in targets (53) by a hair over Deebo (52). These two are just going to trade off big games every single week. Aiyuk is the preferred option this week, with the Browns playing the 7th-highest rate of man coverage (37%). The Browns have shut down receivers all season long, but there is no way you can take Aiyuk out of lineups right now. Aiyuk leads the team in targets (6) and air yard share (36%) vs. man coverage.

George Kittle – Scored three times on all 3 of his targets last week, which underlines why we can’t really take Aiyuk, Samuel, or Kittle out of lineups no matter what. The upside is too great.

Browns Offense

Deshaun Watson (shoulder) didn’t practice out of the Browns bye. He’s out. There is something way more serious with this injury and it’s bizarre that there is zero reporting about the severity of this issue. PJ Walker will start. The Browns have the lowest Week 6 implied point total (13.25) – a full point below the Giants.

Jerome Ford is going to lead this backfield in snaps but this is a brutal matchup on the ground and the Browns are without G Joel Bitonio (knee). Ford is a RB3/FLEX.

Amari Cooper is our WR46 in projections. Hopefully you have better options. This game looks to be rainy and windy. A slopfest is likely.

Sit ‘Em

Brock Purdy – Has now finished as a top-15 fantasy scorer in 9-of-11 career starts. He’s a great QB2/SuperFlex play, but let's temper expectations a little bit this week. The Browns stifled Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill, and Lamar Jackson through the air in Weeks 1-4. Purdy and the 49ers may not be pressed to do much offensively with the Browns in a rough spot offensively.

Saints at Texans

Must Start

Alvin Kamara – Has handled 69% of the snaps and 4-of-5 carries inside-the-10 over the last two weeks.

Start ‘Em

Chris Olave – Sustained a minor toe injury pre-game Week 5 but just missed out on a monster game. He ended with a disappointing 2/12/1 receiving, but just missed on an explosive 30-yard gain and couldn’t get his second foot down on a TD grab.

FLEX Plays

Dameon Pierce – Offensive line issues have compounded a brutal opening schedule. Four of Pierce’s first 5 opponents have ranked bottom-12 in YPC allowed (Baltimore, Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Jacksonville). Well, bad news, he gets another tough spot here! New Orleans is playing stifling run defense again, allowing just 3.3 YPC (5th-fewest). The Saints are allowing a lowly 33.3% success rate on zone-blocking runs (3rd-lowest), which is the foundation of the Texans ground game. Pierce is a volume-based RB2/FLEX again. The good news is that starting tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard are now healthy after both missed Weeks 1-4.

Nico Collins – I was hoping that Collins was trending toward being a weekly option, but he got erased on the perimeter last week against AJ Terrell and Jeff Okudah. This is another tougher matchup here, with the Saints allowing just 0.25 fantasy points per route run to outside receivers. Still, it’s hard to get away from Collins as a WR2/3 when he’s offered such blowup potential. Tank Dell (concussion) is questionable.

Michael Thomas – Settled in as a floor FLEX play. Has finished no better than WR31 but no worse than WR49 in weekly scoring in Weeks 1-5. Thomas is a perfect possession receiver in this offense with two speedsters on the perimeter in Olave and Shaheed, but he is going to have limited upside all year.

Sit ‘Em

C.J. Stroud – This is the best QB that the Saints have faced so far, but New Orleans is a secondary I’ve been avoiding. Through five games, the Saints are allowing the 3rd-fewest passing fantasy points per dropback (0.28) and the 3rd-fewest yards per game (199.2). I’d play Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, Brock Purdy, and Dak Prescott ahead of Stroud this week.

Derek Carr – SuperFlex league only play.

Rashid Shaheed

Dalton Schultz – Got lucky last week (7/65/1) with Tank Dell sustaining a concussion early while Nico Collins was locked down. This is a polar opposite spot this week. The Saints have erased tight ends over the last two years. After allowing a league-low 524 yards last season, New Orleans has allowed 99 yards to tight ends (also a league-low). Over their last 22 games, the Saints have allowed 3 TDs to TEs.

Sleepers

Robert Woods – In play if you need a WR3/FLEX in PPR leagues with Tank Dell (concussion) likely to miss. Woods actually leads the Texans WR group in targets per route run (0.26) by a nose hair over Collins (0.25) and Dell (0.23). Veteran slot receiver Noah Brown is set to return this week.

Colts at Jaguars

Must Start

Travis Etienne

Start ‘Em

Trevor Lawrence – Overdue for a monster fantasy game. The Colts have allowed 17.2 or more FP to 4-of-5 QBs, with Ryan Tannehill being the lone exclusion last week. Indianapolis just sits in Cover-3 zone coverage (54% | tied for highest rate), and they are giving up the 5th-most fantasy points per dropback (0.48) on those Cover-3 looks, tied with the Bears. The Colts also struggle to rush the passer and have generated pressure on just 22.1% of the opposing quarterbacks dropbacks when they do not blitz – which is the 4th-lowest rate.

Calvin Ridley / Christian Kirk – Ridley had a great bounceback game with the Bills down CB Tre White. Christian Kirk (6/78 receiving) continued to get fed. After seeing just 3 targets in Week 1, OC Press Taylor has quickly corrected that with 40 targets to Kirk over the last 4 games. With Zay Jones nursing a knee injury, both Ridley and Kirk are strong WR2 plays with this offense starting to find its mid-season gear.

Ridley is very close to Must Start. After he shredded the Colts for 8/101/1 in Week 1, Indianapolis has allowed 7/146/1 to Nico Collins, 9/163/1 to Puka Nacua, and just gave up 8/140 to DeAndre Hopkins last week.

Michael Pittman – Minshew has funneled Pittman 29% of the targets when he’s on the field, which would rank as the 6th-highest target share among WRs. Jacksonville is allowing the 5th-most fantasy points and 5th-most yards per route run to opposing outside receivers.

Evan Engram – Can we get him a TD!? Engram just missed on his first TD last week on a great pass breakup. He ranks 3rd among tight ends in targets per game with 7.4, trailing only TJ Hockenson (7.8) and Travis Kelce (9.3).

Colts RBs

After he got the bag with a new 3-year, $42M contract last weekend – Jonathan Taylor’s debut was spoiled by his “backup” Zack Moss (23/165/2 rushing). We knew that Taylor would be somewhat limited in his first game action of the season, but Moss was so effective that the Colts barely had to play Taylor at all. Moss played on 80% of the snaps compared to just 10% for Taylor. It might be a few weeks before we see Taylor really get unleashed, with the Colts taking a long-term view with their star RB.

We are projecting more of a backfield split this week, leaving both Colts RBs as FLEX plays. Moss gets the edge here since he’s running so well. He would lead the entire league in rushing yards per game (111.3) if it weren’t for De’Von Achane (115).

Sit ‘Em

Gardner Minshew – SuperFlex league only play.

Sleepers

Josh Downs – 20 of his 33 targets have come from Minshew this season and he’s turned those looks into 14/129 receiving. Downs is a sneaky dart if you’re hurting at receiver.

Panthers at Dolphins

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa – He’s going to be able to do whatever he wants from a clean pocket. The Panthers have the NFL’s worst pass rush by far and have generated pressure on just 9.6% of the time when they do not blitz. Not only is that by far the lowest pressure rate in the league, it’s miles below the league average (30.3%).

Tyreek Hill

Raheem Mostert – Over the last three weeks, Mostert lost ground to Achane in the red zone as the rookie out-snapped the vet by a 59% to 41% margin inside-the-20. Otherwise, this backfield was pretty evenly split in non-red zone situations. With Achane on I.R., Raheem Mostert is back to being an RB1. Miami’s backfield is averaging 43.9 Half-PPR points per game, which is somewhat of an Achane stat – but really just highlights how insane the production is here. Salvon Ahmed is going to back up Mostert this weekend with Jeff Wilson (hand/midsection) doubtful and is a sneaky FLEX play if you’re desperate and want to chase the most productive backfield.

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – After seeing just 11%, 20%, and 14% of the targets in his first three games, Waddle saw 10 targets (33% share) last week. Big games are coming. In fact, Waddle has underperformed based on his role, with 35.8 expected fantasy points (vs. 23.1 actual FP) over his last two games – giving us more signal towards upside.

Adam Thielen – Has piled up 9 > 14 > 8 > 13 targets in his last 4 games. Thielen gets another good matchup here. Miami is allowing the 4th-most receptions (9.0) and 6th-most yards (84.8) per game to opposing slot wide receivers.

Panthers RB Situation

Chuba Hubbard is in line for a start with Miles Sanders (shoulder) out. He’s now a volume-based RB2/FLEX. Panthers #3 RB Raheem Blackshear hasn’t played an offensive snap this season but is in line for 5-7 touches. Carolina are huge underdogs (+14) and aren’t going to be able to stick to the ground game for long, so we need Hubbard to stay active in the pass game.

Sit ‘Em

Bryce Young – SuperFlex only.

D.J. Chark – Scored a garbage time TD last week, but has yardage totals of 15, 28, and 42 in three starts with Bryce Young. That’s because Young is throwing deep (20+ yards in air) at the lowest rate (3.5% of attempts). Young has 5 deep throws (2 completions) in four starts. Andy Dalton threw deep 7 times (4 completions) in one start Week 3 vs. Seattle. Just for additional context, CJ Stroud ranks 2nd-lowest in deep throw rate (5.9%) while Daniel Jones (6%) is 3rd-lowest.

Jonathan Mingo – Stash. Has 26% of the first read targets in three full games with Bryce Young, which is second to Thielen (33%). He’s also leading the team in air yards share (37%) and would benefit the most if the Panthers do start throwing down the field more often.

Hayden Hurst – Target share has been under 10% for four straight games.

Durham Smythe

Sleepers

Salvon Ahmed

Patriots at Raiders (4:05 pm ET)

Must Start

Davante Adams – Was a little limited last week as he deals with a shoulder injury. Adams ran a route on 83% of the Raiders dropbacks last week, which is down from his usual 90-95%.

Josh Jacobs – The Patriots are playing sturdy run defense (3.55 YPC allowed | 55.6% stuff rate), which makes this another spot where Jacobs is likely to see plenty of defenders in the backfield. He will have to fight for every yard again. At the very least, the Raiders have kept him involved in the pass game. Jacobs is averaging a career-high 4.6 receptions per game (2.7 R/G in previous four seasons).

Start ‘Em

Jakobi Meyers – Has seen 39%, 27%, and 32% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s targets in three games. He’s converted all of that volume into 9/81/2, 7/85, and 7/75/1 – making him one of the better PPR WR2/3 options.

Sit ‘Em

Mac Jones – Has completed just 54% of his throws for 6.4 YPA and a 55.4 passer rating in three straight tough matchups (vs. Jets, Cowboys, and Saints). On the season, Jones’ completion rate is -4.6% below expected – which is 3rd-worst and ahead of only Jordan Love (-4.8%) and Kenny Pickett (-9.2%).

Rhamondre Stevenson – Have put him as FLEX play for the last two weeks, but I can’t even get there now. Stevenson is really struggling on the ground and is averaging just 1.71 yards after contact (49th-of-50 RBs) and 0.18 missed tackles forced per carry (40th). Making matters worse, Ezekiel Elliott has more XFP when the game is tied or when the Patriots are trailing than Stevenson (18.0 for Elliott | 17.7 for Stevenson) over the last three weeks.

DeVante Parker / Kendrick Bourne – Finally have an easier matchup this week, but this is so gross. Over the last four weeks, Parker ranks 7th on the team in targets per route run (0.17) while Bourne is 3rd (TPRR - 0.24). If JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas (both are in concussion protocol) do not play, Bourne and Parker are in play as FLEX options if you’re desperate. Tyquan Thornton can come off of I.R. this week.

Sleepers

Jimmy Garoppolo – SuperFlex league only play… but this is a good spot. Garoppolo is the most pressure-sensitive QB, with a league-low 7.8 passer rating (yes, 7.8) when pressured. His completion rate is -29% below expectation when pressured, also a league-low. However, from a clean pocket, Garoppolo’s passer rating is 118.0 (3rd-best), and he’s completing +6.1% of his passes above expectation (6th-best). The Patriots pressured Derek Carr on just 20.6% of his dropbacks without Matthew Judon (biceps) last week.

Hunter Henry – Slot WRs Smith-Schuster and Douglas are out. Henry’s production has fallen off due to their offensive struggles but he stands to benefit most since he runs 59% of his routes from the slot in addition to all of the traditional in-line TE snaps.

Lions at Buccaneers (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

David Montgomery – Has finished as RB13, RB17, RB2, and RB5 in four starts. Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) and Zonovan Knight (shoulder) are out. Craig Reynolds will back up Montgomery.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – Expected to play after missing one game. The Bucs’ almost exclusively play zone coverage (81% | 6th-highest), and St. Brown easily leads the team in first read target share (29%) over Sam LaPorta (17%) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16%) vs. zone.

Sam LaPorta

Start ‘Em

Mike Evans – Prior to injuring his hamstring in Week 4, Evans dominated targets (29% share) over Godwin (19%) in their first three games together. In fact, Evans led all wide receivers in team share of air yards (51%) and got a whopping 37% of the first-reads while Godwin was at 25%. This is an easier matchup for Godwin but do not take Evans out of lineups.

FLEX Plays

Chris Godwin – Finished as the WR44, WR52, and WR72 in Weeks 1-3 before popping in Week 4 as the WR9 after Mike Evans got hurt. Detroit is playing great defense in general, but covering Godwin could be a problem. The Lions are giving up the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot WRs. Godwin ran 44% of his routes from the slot in Weeks 1-3.

Rachaad White – Profiles as a volume-based RB2/FLEX once again. This is the worst possible matchup for White and the Buccaneers ground game. White is just not seeing much running room by traditional metrics (0.89 yards before contact | 39th-of-50 RBs) and ESPN’s run block win rate metrics (64% | last in NFL). Detroit is playing stifling run defense (2.96 YPC allowed | 2nd-fewest), and they remain the only unit in the league yet to allow an explosive gain of 15+ yards. White ranks 4th among RBs in route share (61%) and has caught 13-of-13 targets, so we will need him to stay active in the pass game.

Sit ‘Em

Jared Goff – Tampa is playing pretty stout pass defense, allowing just 0.29 passing fantasy points per dropback (6th-fewest). Goff is playing at the highest level of his career, but looks like more of a SuperFlex play as opposed to QB1 start in this spot. Over the last three seasons, 75% of Goff’s passing TDs (43-of-57) have been scored in home games.

Baker Mayfield – SuperFlex only, but he’s a very solid QB2. Mayfield finished as QB14 > QB18 > QB26 > QB7 in Weeks 1-4.

Josh Reynolds – Came through again (4/76/1 receiving), but only ran 12 routes in Week 5. He’s off of the injury report entering Week 6. He’s seen at least 17% of the targets in 4-of-5 games, but he’s at risk of losing snaps with St. Brown back in the lineup and Jameson Williams ramping up. Reynolds is a TD-dependent WR3/4.

Jameson Williams – Was limited (as expected) in his 2023 debut. Kalif Raymond (17) and Marvin Jones (14) both ran more routes in Week 5 than Williams (13), which I expect will change this week.

Cardinals at Rams (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Cooper Kupp / Puka Nacua – As expected, this duo will co-exist as top-15 options. Kupp and Nacua accounted for 62.1% of the targets last week, and both lined up all over the place. Kupp worked out of the slot just a little more (53% of routes) than Nacua (47%). This tandem is going to be a nightmare to cover and especially for the Cardinals after they just allowed 6/148 to Brandon Aiyuk and 15/193/3 to Ja’Marr Chase in Weeks 4-5.

Kyren Williams – Leads all running backs in snaps (84%) and route share (71%). Williams has handled 82% of the Rams red-zone carries, which ranks 3rd among RBs. He’s got strong touchdown upside this week, with L.A. carrying the 4th-highest implied scoring total (27.8 points).

Start ‘Em

Matthew Stafford – Has not finished higher than QB15 but no lower than QB22 in any game output so far. This is a spot for Stafford to finally hit a ceiling score, with Kupp and Nacua both balling out. The Cardinals are allowing the 6th-most passing yards per game (274.4), and they have allowed a top-12 QB scorer in fantasy in 4-of-5 games.

Marquise Brown – Averaging 9.3 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 68 yards per game over his last four games with 3 TDs. Brown has 33% of the first-read targets in this span compared to just 13.4% for rookie Michael Wilson.

Zach Ertz – Puzzling usage last week (4 targets). Still, he ran a route on 86% of the pass plays, which is more than enough to keep Ertz on the TE1 radar. This is another good matchup, too. The Rams have been hammered by Colts TEs (6/107/2) and Dallas Goedert (8/117/1) over the last two weeks.

Cardinals RBs

With James Conner (knee) going on I.R. for the next four games, Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram will compete for touches. It’s noteworthy that while Ingram did not play last week (neck), he is listed as the team’s #1 running back on the depth chart. I put little stock in that, though.

Demercado (8/40/1 rushing) was solid last week, and this new front office did not draft Ingram, so I’m expecting the rookie to get a big chance. Ingram has taken his 39 career carries for 75 yards with two gains of 10+ yards.

In Weeks 1-3, Ingram played 22 snaps to Demercado’s 20 in backup duties to James Conner.

For this week, Demercado is a decent FLEX play, while Ingram is a stash.

Sit ‘Em

Tyler Higbee – As expected, his target share dipped to a season-low 8.3% last week.

Michael Wilson

Josh Dobbs

Sleepers

Tutu Atwell – He’s a deep league FLEX option. Atwell ran the same amount of routes as Kupp did last week (36 | 88% share), but his target share dipped to a season-low 13.5%.

Eagles at Jets (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Jalen Hurts – Saw a season-high 11 designed carries in Week 5. The Jets have given up 163 rushing yards to QBs (2nd-most).

D’Andre Swift

Start ‘Em

A.J. Brown – The Jets have allowed a league-low 1 (one!!) completion on 18 pass attempts of 20+ air yards this season. We have to temper expectations here, but this is not a WR1A / WR1B situation like last season. Brown is dominating targets over DeVonta Smith. He’s seen 40.7% of the first-read targets compared to 25% for Smith. And, Brown has commanded a whopping 24 targets vs. man coverage compared to just 12 for Smith.

DeVonta Smith – Candidate for a squeaky wheel game after Brown and Goedert have gotten fed targets. Still, Brown taking over as the clear #1 really shows up in expected fantasy points. This season, Brown is averaging 21.1 Half-PPR XFP per game compared to Smith at 11.1 XFP/game. Last year, this was a lot tighter (Brown – 15.2 XFP per game | Smith – 13.4).

Dallas Goedert – Because the Jets are so good on the perimeter, it forces their opponents to target tight ends more often. New York has allowed a whopping 16 receptions for 226 yards and 3 TDs to tight ends over the last three weeks.

Breece Hall – We were all over his breakout last week. On a season-high 25 touches, Hall shredded Denver for 194 scrimmage yards and a TD. After playing just 30% of the snaps in Weeks 1-2, Hall’s snap rate climbed to 45% in Weeks 3-4 and was at a season-high 52% in Week 5. In five career games where he’s played more than 50% of the snaps, Hall is averaging 19.9 Half-PPR points per contest. Just for reference, that would make him tied with Raheem Mostert as the RB4 in FPG this season. That’s all of the good news. The bad news is that the Jets lost their best run blocker T Alijah Vera-Tucker (Achilles) for the season and now have to face the Eagles run-stuffing front-seven. Philadelphia will sell out to stop the run here, making Hall way more of a risky play compared to last week. Hall still ran fewer routes (9) than Michael Carter (17) in Week 5, so we really need a spike in his passing down usage as the final piece to the usage puzzle here.

FLEX Plays

Garrett Wilson – Has 7 or more targets in four straight games, but Zach Wilson continues to be erratic. Just 75% of Garrett Wilson’s targets have been catchable, which ranks 39th-of-53 qualifying WRs. The Eagles are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers to leave the light on for Wilson as a WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Tyler Conklin

Allen Lazard

Zach Wilson

Giants at Bills (SNF)

Must Start

Josh Allen

Stefon Diggs – The Giants love to blitz and play man coverage (37% of snaps | 4th-highest rate) behind. Diggs has absolutely shredded man this season. On a team-high 13 targets (30.2% share), Diggs has 11/162/2 vs. man coverage.

Start ‘Em

James Cook – The Bills completely abandoned the run game after a very sluggish start Week 5 vs. the Jaguars. They will be able to keep their foot on the gas this week. The Giants are struggling on run defense, permitting 5.1 YPC (4th-highest) and the 3rd-highest rate of explosive runs (7.8%). Only the Broncos (171.8) are giving up more rushing yards per game [scrambles excluded] than the Giants (143.2).

Gabe Davis – We will always take our L’s when they’re deserved here at Fantasy Points, but I am sure glad we refused to quit on our guy Gabe Davis this season. After a high ankle injury slowed him down for all of 2022, it’s clear that Davis is all the way back. Through five weeks, Davis is the WR19 by fantasy points per game (13.0 FPG) as he’s turned into the big-play, upside WR2/3 option we all believed he could be. Davis is going to eventually come back to earth and stop scoring touchdowns after getting into the end-zone in four-straight games, but he’s winning on the perimeter on contested catches and getting separation on in-breaking routes – which is what we really need to see for him to succeed in this offense. After catching just 36% of his 25 contested targets last season, Davis has caught 4-of-6 to kick off the year.

Giants Offense

Daniel Jones (neck) is out. Tyrod Taylor will start.

Saquon Barkley has been limited in practice for two straight weeks. If he suits up, I’d have to imagine he will be on a snap limit after missing the last three games. Barkley is a low-end RB2 in this spot with the Giants team total (14.3 points) sitting 2nd-lowest on the slate. Matt Breida was down to 58% of the snaps Week 5 and only got 10 touches. Breida lost ground to rookie Eric Gray (42% snap rate | 12 carries) last week.

And to cap it all off, Darren Waller has a groin injury. Waller had a nice squeaky wheel game and was the only decent part of the Giants offense last week. It seems like Waller is going to play, and given the state of this position, he’s still a back-end TE1 start. Tyrod Taylor has targeted Waller 4 times on 15 pass attempts (26.7% share) giving us a small sample positive to hang our hat on. I’d play Logan Thomas and Jake Ferguson over Waller.

Wan’Dale Robinson has earned 17 targets on 63 routes over the last three weeks and has 14 receptions, giving him a pulse on the PPR radar if you’re desperate.

Sleepers

Dawson Knox – But, only if Dalton Kincaid (concussion) is out. He would become a great streamer if Kincaid doesn’t play.

Cowboys at Chargers (MNF)

Must Start

Austin Ekeler – He’s baaack.

Keenan Allen

Justin Herbert – Fascinated to see how OC Kellen Moore schemes against his old team. Herbert has emerged as the stud fantasy QB we were buying in the 5th round of drafts, ripping off weekly scores of QB6, QB16, QB1, and QB5 prior to his bye. Dallas’ defense is great, but you aren’t taking Herbert out of lineups.

Tony Pollard – It has been a rough runout for Pollard over the last few weeks. After finishing as RB5 in Week 1, Pollard has weekly finishes of RB14 > RB17 > RB25 > RB27 in Weeks 2-5. This game has obvious shootout appeal and Dallas has a chance to finally play in a normal, back-and-forth game. The Cowboys have been involved in four blowouts, three of which went in their direction because their defense took over the game (vs. Giants, Jets, and Patriots).

Start ‘Em

CeeDee Lamb – One of the best get-right spots of the slate. Lamb has seen less than 20% of the team targets in 4-of-5 games, which has to come up. This is a dream spot for Lamb to get fed the ball. The Chargers are allowing 2.44 yards per route run to slot receivers, 2nd-most.

Jake Ferguson – Route share has increased in four-straight games (40% > 58% > 62% > 73%). Ferguson leads the team in targets per route (0.26) over Pollard (0.25) and Lamb (0.23), so this huge boost in playing time gives Ferguson a lot of upside.

FLEX Plays

Josh Palmer – As expected, Palmer (90% route share | 8 targets) was ahead of the rookie Quinten Johnston (68% route share | 3 targets) in Week 4 before the bye. He’s a lower-end WR3/FLEX play if you’re struggling through injuries, but I expect Quinten Johnston to continue to ramp up quickly.

Sit ‘Em

Michael Gallup / Brandin Cooks

Quinten Johnston

Sleepers

Dak Prescott – Has finished as QB29, QB17, QB17, QB20, and QB25, which has left him off of our radar all season. However, this is about as good of a spot as you could dream up for Prescott as a streamer in 12-team leagues.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.