This article will be published Friday and continuously updated through Sunday morning.
Sunday Update
Actives/Expected Actives
Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Jones, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams
Inactive/Expected Inctives
Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Pat Freirmuth, Tee Higgins, Tee Higgins, Treylon Burks,
Game Time Decision
Javonte Williams, if active he is not a must-start by any means. In fact, I’ll likely start somebody from the early slate and live with the result.
This is in addition to a Tuesday update with transaction recommendations, and a Thursday Night Football preview. Remember that these projections are an imperfect analysis working with the most current information and five years of historical data. If players practice in full, they’ll be excluded from any specific analysis and should be assumed healthy unless otherwise stated.
The following fantasy-relevant players are officially OUT this week, doubtful, or trending in the wrong direction:
“*” indicates full breakdown below
Pat Freiermuth (OUT)
Treylon Burks (OUT)
Tee Higgins*
Amon-Ra St. Brown* (doubtful)
Here are more players to keep an eye on:
Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo - Concussion
Jimmy G missed one week due to this brain injury, but he’s tracking to play. There’s a 33% reinjury rate, so there’s some risk attached, but he might be needed due to bye weeks. Roll him out there with relative confidence.
Matthew Stafford - Hip
Stafford has been dealing. He’s one of the biggest swings and misses for me personally this year, but keep in mind he’s not 100%, and there’s some re-injury risk here. He’s moderately volatile.
Derek Carr - Shoulder
Carr is likely feeling better, but he’s also not close to 100%. He should still be fine, and similar to the other quarterbacks on the injury report this week, he comes with moderate volatility due to re-injury risk and accuracy/deep ball concerns.
Kenny Pickett - Bone Bruise
Pickett is the most volatile QB on the list this week due to the assumption that a true bone bruise is extremely painful. He’s been “full” in practice, but there’s no reason to trot Pickett out there in most leagues - even SF.
Running backs
Jahmyr Gibbs - Hamstring
Gibbs evidently had his hamstring tighten up on him in practice. This makes him unusable in cash games due to the 24% reinjury rate, but typically, targets per game don’t take a dip. He should still be in any lineups in non-high-stakes leagues.
Saquon Barkley - High Ankle
Barkley is allegedly a game-time decision. As of today, he’s not a slam dunk to play as the average amount of missed time is a shade over 2, and the mode (most frequently missed time) is 3. Barkley has missed 2 games so far. Some managers can’t really afford to gamble. If you just need points, start another RB. If you’re desperate and flailing, keep reading.
Here’s some data on RBs of his profile after high ankle sprains:
-107% of typical opportunities (carries/targets)
-120% of typical fantasy points
And…
RBs who missed 2 or 3 weeks due to a high ankle:
-124% typical fantasy points
In other words, Barkley can probably provide good value against a bottom 6 in EPA Miami rushing defense.
Kyren Williams - Hip
Williams is fighting through this hip issue, so there’s some chance of re-injury. He’s hard to bench in any format, though, given his workload.
Javonte Williams - “Quad”/Groin
Williams has a hip flexor injury which is a muscle strain of a muscle that crosses the groin area. This wasn’t surprising, given how quickly they ramped him up. In reality, Williams hasn’t been a must-start anyway. Williams was averaging 7.3 points per game prior to this injury. He’ll likely go but … have some self-respect.
Aaron Jones - Hamstring
Jones was on a snap count, but 11 days later should be even closer to 100% as the Packers do a great job of treating soft tissue injuries. The Raiders are a bottom 5 passing defense and middle-of-the-road running defense. But with the Packers as a 2.5-point favorite and AJ Dillon providing nothing on his touches, Jones should have plenty of opportunities to bounce back in a big way.
Wide Receivers
Tee Higgins - Ribs
Higgins has given us the run around with injuries before playing when he probably should have just rested. He returned to practice today and claims he’ll play, but he is by no means a must-start. Given his track record of playing poorly through injury coupled with the very poor passing offense, I’m personally in wait-and-see mode on Higgins, even if he plays in Week 5.
Amon-Ra St Brown - Abdomen
St. Brown is doubtful for Week 5, and I won’t mince words — I’m concerned. Not because we know exactly what’s going on, but because we don’t. In the preseason, Jaylen Waddle was rested for several weeks when dealing with what we assume is a core muscle strain. These injuries can get nasty in a hurry. At worst, he gets shut down for 2-3 weeks. At best, he’s just fine. He’s likely to sit this week, so keep your head on a swivel.
Cooper Kupp - Hamstring
Kupp is a floor play this week and will likely be on a snap count. But here’s what you can expect:
WRs returning from a hamstring strain typically see 91% of usual 1st read targets and 70% of usual fantasy points (PPR). However, since 2018 7/11 WRs 28 and older had a reinjury.
Keenan Allen returned after a long layoff last season and scored 12 PPR points. That’s definitely in the range of outcomes for Kupp. Most teams can start him but temper expectations as the Rams’ goal for him is to simply make it out of the game healthy.
Davante Adams - Shoulder
WRs tend to play through these injuries and do okay. Adams needs to practice at least once before Monday, so stay locked into this article to be sure he’ll give it a go.
Good luck!
