Week 5 Fantasy Football Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Welcome to Week 5 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.

In as concise a manner as possible, we will go through the outlook of every fantasy-relevant player.

This piece will replace Stat Pack going forward because it’s so comprehensive. All of the data-driven research that you would typically read in Stat Pack will instead go in here.

This article will be updated at the end of the day on Friday and Saturday.

As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

Let’s get to it.

Bears at Commanders (TNF)

Start ‘Em

Brian Robinson – Robinson has finished as a top-15 scorer in Half-PPR leagues in 3-of-4 games, with Week 3 vs. Buffalo being the lone exception. This is as good of a matchup as you could draw up for B-Rob with the Commanders as 6.5-point favorites, which will favor a run-heavy game plan for Washington. Robinson has out-snapped Antonio Gibson by a 59% to 37% margin and handled 22 of the 28 RB carries (79%) when the Commanders have been ahead on the scoreboard this season.

Justin Fields – Bounced back for one of the best games of his career (albeit against the dead Broncos defense). Washington is a more talented unit than Denver, but they have been bludgeoned over the last three weeks by Denver, Buffalo, and Philadelphia. The Commanders are allowing the 9th-most yards and 2nd-most scores on a per-drive basis and have given up the 3rd-most rushing yards to QBs (131).

Terry McLaurin – After three weeks of spreading the ball around, Washington finally condensed their passing attack to feature McLaurin (24% target share), Jahan Dotson (20%), and Curtis Samuel (20%) in Week 4. McLaurin got 9 first-read targets while Dotson saw 8, and Samuel received 6. No one else on the team got more than 2 first-read targets. As long as Washington keeps funneling the ball to their best players, I’m quickly willing to re-insert McLaurin back in as a WR2 play. Chicago has not been good vs. outside wide receivers, allowing the 7th-most yards (2.42) and 5th-most fantasy points (0.45) on a per-route basis.

DJ Moore – Good things happen when you funnel targets to your best player. After seeing just 23% of the first read targets in Weeks 1-2, Moore’s FR share spiked to 38% in Week 3 and was 50% (!!) last week. That’s the type of usage we thought we were getting out of the gates. Fields is a wild card this week, but Moore’s matchup is excellent. Washington is allowing the 4th-most yards to outside WRs, which is where Moore lines up 90% of the time.

FLEX Plays

Khalil Herbert – We were correctly on Herbert over Roschon Johnson last week due to his outsized snap count in close games. The rookie Johnson is playing exclusively in a backup role. Over the last three weeks, Herbert has played 67% of the snaps and handled 65% of the RB carries when the game is within a score (+/- 8 points). Herbert is a strong FLEX play with four teams on bye and a startable back-end RB2 in deep leagues.

Jahan Dotson – Dotson will run 50-60% of his routes from the slot, so McLaurin has the better matchup in totality. Still, with four teams on bye, Dotson is an upside WR4/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Antonio Gibson

Roschon Johnson

Curtis Samuel – Deep league option only.

Darnell Mooney – Route share spiked from 60% to 85% last week with Chase Claypool out. Still, he’s a thin play.

Sleepers

Sam Howell – Is the best streamer on the Week 5 slate. The Bears have handed out 18.4 or more FP to Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson. Chicago’s two best players in the secondary, S Eddie Jackson and CB Jaylon Johnson, missed last week with injuries and are out for Week 4.

Cole Kmet – Finally broke out last week (7/85/2), but this matchup is a lot more difficult. Commanders have limited TEs to 83 yards on 21 targets this season. Kmet is an all-or-nothing streamer.

Logan Thomas

Jaguars at Bills (9:30 am ET | London)

Must Start

Josh Allen / Stefon Diggs

Travis Etienne

Start ‘Em

James Cook – If we are going to start getting goal-line carries for Cook like last week, he has a top-12 ceiling at the position. He’s tied with Derrick Henry as the RB17 in expected fantasy points per game (13.6 Half-PPR), so touchdown upside is the last piece of the puzzle we need.

Calvin Ridley – Don’t panic yet. The last few weeks have been filled with red-zone miscues from Lawrence and untimely drops for Ridley. He gets a significant matchup boost with Bills CB Tre White (Achilles) out.

Christian Kirk – Has bounced right back with 23/248/1 receiving over his last three games after a slow Week 1. Zay Jones (knee) returning to the lineup could push Kirk back into the slot full-time or will HC Doug Pederson realize his mistake and play Kirk full-time alongside Ridley? Regardless, Kirk leads the team in targets (18) over the last two weeks and is a strong WR2 start in PPR leagues this week. Kirk has 29 first-read targets to Ridley’s 24 this season.

Evan Engram – One of the few tight ends that has shown some consistency to start the season, finishing as the TE7 > TE9 > TE8 > TE10.

Trevor Lawrence – He has yet to notch a big scoring week, but Buffalo will press Jacksonville to score here. The big fantasy games will come as long as Lawrence continues to play this well. Lawrence’s adjusted completion rate (for drops and throwaways) is 78.5% (7th-best) while he’s dead last in turnover-worthy throws (1.5% | tied with Justin Herbert). He’s also starting to run consistently and is averaging 25.3 rushing yards per game (vs. 17.1 YPG last year).

FLEX Plays

Gabe Davis – We’ve gotten the full Gabe Davis treatment over the last three weeks. He’s seen just 14 targets but has 10 receptions but for 188 yards and 3 TDs. With Josh Allen playing at an MVP level, keep riding Davis as a WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Dalton Kincaid / Dalton Knox – Kincaid (63% route share) and Knox (58%) continue to split work, leaving both off of the fantasy radar.

Texans at Falcons

Must Start

Bijan Robinson

Start ‘Em

Nico Collins – Ranks 3rd among WRs in yards per route run (3.82), trailing only Brandon Aiyuk (4.85) and Tyreek Hill (4.20). Collins is playing exceptionally well and can get open in the intermediate and deep areas of the field, but C.J. Stroud is elevating him. Collins has 16 catchable targets on throws of 10+ air yards, which is tied with Stefon Diggs for 4th-most.

FLEX Plays

Dameon Pierce – Might get some OL reinforcements with T Tytus Howard and T Laremy Tunsil potentially returning. That’d be a huge boost here because Pierce is seeing just 0.34 yards before contact (41st-of-44 RBs) and, as a unit, Houston ranks 28th in ESPN’s run block win rate metrics (67%). Still, we’d love to see Pierce’s role increase. He’s split snaps 52% to 32% with Devin Singletary when the game is within a score, making him a RB3/FLEX option. Atlanta has played solid run defense, too, allowing just 3.42 YPC (6th-fewest).

Tank Dell – We think Falcons top CB AJ Terrell sticks to his usual left-side alignment this week and will not shadow Collins or Dell. Last week, Terrell shadowed Calvin Ridley on the vast majority of his snaps. Over the last three weeks, CJ Stroud’s first read target was Nico Collins 26% of the time while Robert Woods (22% FR share) is still very involved in the pass game. Dell’s 21% first read share is right there behind Woods. In totality, Collins (16) leads the team in targets by a slim margin over Dell (13) and Woods (12) in Weeks 2-4 (with Noah Brown out). Dell is an upside WR3.

Sit ‘Em

Drake London – Ridder has continued to get worse by the week and he has been sacked on 12% of his dropbacks (4th-highest rate), further compounding the Falcon's offensive issues. London has seen just 13 catchable targets, which is 63rd among WRs.

Kyle Pitts – Pitts has seen just 12 catchable targets, which is tied with Chig Okonkwo for 23rd among TEs. Just like last year, he is massively under-performing based on his role thanks to QB play. Pitts is the TE5 by expected fantasy points (11.5 per game), but is the TE31 in actual FP scored.

Robert Woods

Desmond Ridder

Dalton Schultz – Caught a TD last week, but snaps have fallen in four-straight games (81% > 71% > 68% > 49%). Schultz has run just 26 routes over the last two weeks as Brevin Jordan (11 routes) and Teagan Quitoriano (8) mix in more.

Sleepers

C.J. Stroud – Has finished as the QB7 > QB11 > QB10 over the last three weeks. Atlanta is better defensively this season, but they are still just 16th in passing fantasy points allowed per dropback. He’s my second-favorite streamer, closely behind Sam Howell.

Panthers at Lions

Must Start

Sam LaPorta – On pace to shatter the rookie TE reception record (Keith Jackson, 82 receptions). LaPorta already has 22 receptions, 3rd-most among TEs behind Evan Engram (25) and TJ Hockenson (25).

David Montgomery – Montgomery has the best rushing TD chance on the Week 5 slate. He has already racked up 11 carries inside-the-10 (red-zone), trailing only Tony Pollard (16). Carolina’s run defense is in trouble with the Lions getting healthy along the offensive line. Taylor Decker and Halapoulivaati Vaitai are both practicing to start the week. The Panthers have not been good against the run, allowing 4.74 YPC (4th-most).

Start ‘Em

Adam Thielen – Hoovering targets (9 > 14 > 8 last three games) as the Panthers pass game funnels through the 33-year-old in the shallow/intermediate part of the field. That is a brutal way to try and design a pass offense in 2023. For fantasy, Thielen easily has the best matchup of the Carolina receiver group. Detroit has been good against outside wide receivers (16.1 fantasy points per game allowed | 12th-fewest), but leaky to slot wideouts (18.5 FPG allowed | 2nd-most). Thielen is running 70% of his routes from the slot.

FLEX Plays

Miles Sanders – Was clearly limited last week as he continues to play through a groin injury that has lingered since August. Sanders played on 43% of the snaps last week, a season-low. Sanders was at 62% and 65% of the snaps in Weeks 2-3, so we have to monitor his health here. This is also a brutal matchup against the Lions mauling front seven. Detroit is playing shut-down run defense, permitting a league-low 2.53 YPC. The Lions are the only defense yet to allow a 15+ yard rushing gain. Sanders is closer to a sit, but on a slate with four teams on bye, he’s a weak RB2 and mid-FLEX play.

Josh Reynolds – The Panthers are allowing the 7th-most fantasy points per route run (0.42) to outside wide receivers. Reynolds (groin) is dealing with an injury, too, but practiced in full on Friday.

Update (Saturday, 10/7): With Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) doubtful, Reynolds is in the WR3 discussion with this being a wide open week at receiver. If you’re scouring the wire for options, Kalif Raymond will get a big role bump as the Lions primary slot receiver. I’d prefer to play him in PPR leagues, but he’s a viable option if you’re looking for 8-10 FP in a pinch.

Sit ‘Em

D.J. Chark / Jonathan Mingo – QB Bryce Young is unwilling or unable to throw downfield. He’s attempted just 4 passes of 20+ air yards in three starts (which is 35th among QBs). Just for reference, Andy Dalton had 7 attempts of 20+ air yards in Week 3 vs. Seattle. Until the Panthers start throwing deep, there isn’t any upside here.

Jameson Williams – Will likely be limited in his debut off of a hamstring injury/suspension.

Bryce Young

Hayden Hurst

Jahmyr Gibbs – In their three games together, Montgomery has handled 66% of the carries and 83% of the snaps inside-the-10. We’re left with Gibbs getting 7-8 changeup carries attached to little touchdown upside. Gibbs has out-targeted Montgomery by a 17 to 3 margin, but Montgomery (35% route share) is playing a ton in the pass game – which is really the big surprise in this backfield. Gibbs’ 39% route share ranks 24th among RBs. The Lions are tied with the Bills for the 4th-highest implied total (27) and this is a tough week for running backs, so you might have to put some blind faith in Detroit steam-rolling Carolina and hope that Gibbs rips some big gains this week. He’s a RB3/FLEX with more appeal in PPR.

Update (Saturday, 10/7): Gibbs was a late addition to the injury report on Friday (hamstring). This injury could limit him in-game, so I’m taking him out of lineups this weekend.

Jared Goff – Over the last two seasons, Goff averages 18.2 fantasy points and 281.3 passing yards per game when the Lions are favored vs. 15.0 FPG and 231.8 YPG when they’re underdogs.

Update (Saturday, 10/7): St. Brown and Gibbs’ injury downgrade Goff. I’d rather play Brock Purdy / Jordan Love / CJ Stroud.

Titans at Colts

Must Start

Anthony Richardson – Through nine quarters of action, he has racked up 37.1 rushing fantasy points. That’s 14th-most among all players. If he stayed at that pace for all 4 games and not sustained a concussion in Week 2, Richardson would have 69.9 rushing FP – second-most among all players. Is that any good?

Derrick Henry – As long as this game stays close, the Titans will feed the King. We just have to understand that Tyjae Spears is going to mix in enough on passing downs to lower Derrick Henry’s floor in fantasy on the weeks where he doesn’t rip off long gains and stiff-arm defenders into oblivion.

Start ‘Em

Michael Pittman – After a down week, this is an obvious bounce-back spot for Pittman. Because the Titans are so good on run defense, they force their opponents to the air. As a result, they are allowing the 4th-most receptions and 6th-most yards to perimeter receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins – We’ve faded Hopkins all year, but this is about as good of a spot as we are going to get. Ryan Tannehill has played well in two easier matchups (vs. CIN / LAC), and he gets another good matchup here. The Colts are 30th in pressures forced (27.7%), and their perimeter CBs are struggling (4th-most FPG allowed to outside wide receivers).

Colts RB situation

Since Jonathan Taylor is ready to play and 100% healthy – he is in line for the best workload of his career, as Scott Barrett outlined. I do question whether or not Taylor has win-your-league upside like past seasons because Richardson is going to command a good share of the goal-line carries.

The Colts will ramp up Taylor and split the backfield touches in Week 5, but it won’t remain that way all season. That makes Zack Moss one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy.

The Titans are allowing the 3rd-fewest YPC (2.87) and have allowed one run of 15+ yards, so don’t get carried away here. For Week 5 decisions, Taylor is a RB2/FLEX on a weak slate for running backs. He’s a top-5 RB for the rest of the season and his new contract signals a massive workload is incoming.

Sit ‘Em

Ryan Tannehill – Good spot, but SuperFlex only.

Chig Okonkwo

Josh Downs / Alec Pierce – Even though this is a matchup we always target, Downs has 5/64 receiving (10 targets) while Pierce has 2/43 (5 targets) in two starts with Richardson. They’re both too thin for season-long leagues.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhene

Sleepers

Kyle Phillips – Should be Titans full-time slot WR. His return will limit Nick Westbrook-Ikhene’s snaps even as Treylon Burks (knee) remains out.

Giants at Dolphins

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa / Tyreek Hill – If the Giants play their usual man coverage, Tyreek could go for 175 yards. The Giants play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage (40.7%) and allow the 5th-most passing fantasy points (0.75 per DB) on those dropbacks.

Start ‘Em

Jaylen Waddle – In their three games together, Tyreek has out-targeted Waddle by 28 to 16 margin. This is a continuation of last season when Hill saw 114 targets (31% share) to Waddle’s 82 targets (22% share) in their 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa. With Waddle living off of 5-8 targets per game, he’s stuck as a big-play-dependent WR2.

De’Von Achane – Like we said last week, Achane is no fluke. He got legitimate “1A” usage in Weeks 3 and 4. Now, we have an even bigger runway here after Raheem Mostert lost two fumbles last week. Achane has out-snapped Mostert by a whopping 70% to 30% margin in the red zone over the last two weeks, giving him the most upside of the duo. Last week, Achane out-snaped Mostert by a 69% to 42% margin on 1st and 2nd downs and had 7 early-down carries to Mostert’s 6.

Giants RB situation

Saquon Barkley returned to a limited practice all week and is a game-time decision. He’s not a must-start if he plays, though, and could be at risk seeing limited work. Especially since the Giants are massive underdogs (+12.5).

If Barkley misses again, Matt Breida would be a passable RB2/FLEX play after seeing 80% and 73% of the snaps over the last two weeks.

Pain

Darren Waller – The panic is deserved here. Waller ranks 19th among tight ends in YPRR (1.25)… just behind Zach Ertz (1.26). And, in the best possible matchup last week, Waller was a ghost – with two of his 3 receptions coming in garbage time. Not great!

Still, I wouldn’t go dumpster diving into the waiver wire. There are 8 TEs I’d play ahead of Waller this week (Kelce, Andrews, Hockenson, LaPorta, Engram, Kittle, Ertz, Goedert).

FLEX Plays

Raheem Mostert – Achane emerging has pushed Mostert into the RB2/FLEX group, especially with the rookie getting the money touches in the red zone. Over the last two weeks, Achane has 9 carries and 4 targets to Mostert’s 5 carries (1 target) inside-the-20. Mostert’s floor is lower now, but he still projects as a fine RB2 on a weak slate for running backs.

Sit ‘Em

Daniel Jones – Outside of the second half vs. Arizona in Week 2, the Giants have scored a FG or TD on 4 of their 39 possessions (10.2%). That is nearly 11% lower than the 31st-ranked Patriots (20.8%) and miles below the league average (35%). The issues here are a sum of the parts but most of the blame is placed on their completely ineffective offensive line. T Andrew Thomas (hamstring) is still out. Jones is a SuperFlex play only.

Durham Smythe

Sleepers

Wan’Dale Robinson – Darius Slayton remains the Giants WR1 by route share, but Robinson got a merit-based promotion last week along with Jalin Hyatt. Robinson has taken over as the main slot receiver and he’s the only one with a fantasy pulse in this matchup after leading the team in targets (6). The Dolphins have surrendered the 4th-most receptions and fantasy points to slot receivers.

Isaiah Hodgins (41% route share) and Parris Campbell (33%) were demoted last week.

Saints at Patriots

Must Start

Alvin Kamara

Start ‘Em

Chris Olave – If I had any confidence in Derek Carr after he sustained his shoulder injury, Olave would be a must-start and top-5 play on the slate with the Patriots down CB Christian Gonzalez in addition to Marcus Jones (I.R.) and Jonathan Jones (hasn’t played since Week 1).

FLEX Plays

Rhamondre Stevenson – The Patriots' run blocking is certainly not the best, but Stevenson has largely been ineffective as a runner. He’s averaging 1.68 yards after contact per carry, which is dead last among the 44 RBs with at least 25 carries. Stevenson hasn’t had the same shiftiness, forcing just 0.17 missed tackles forced per carry (35th) compared to 0.29 per carry (5th) last year.

This is all compounded by the fact that the Patriots rank 31st in scoring drives (20.8%) and are tied with the Steelers for the fewest plays (6) inside the opponents' 10-yard line (red-zone).

The Saints have been great against the run this season (2.58 YPC allowed | 5th-highest), so we really need the Patriots to find a way to give Stevenson a goal-line plunge.

Sit ‘Em

Derek Carr

Mac Jones

Michael Thomas – Has finished no better than WR38 but no worse than WR49 in weekly scoring in Weeks 1-4. Again, if Carr were healthy, I’d be a little more excited here.

Hunter Henry – The Saints have erased tight ends over the last two years. After allowing a league-low 524 yards last season, New Orleans has allowed 82 yards to TEs (also a league-low). Over their last 21 games, the Saints have allowed 3 TDs to tight ends.

Patriots WRs – Eight different players saw between 3 and 5 targets in Week 4. The week prior, nine different Patriots saw a target, and no one saw more than 5. This team is so bad at scouting receivers – I’m not even mad. I’m just impressed.

Tyquan Thornton is eligible to return off of I.R. this week. Demario Douglas (2.25 YPRR) is the only Patriots receiver with any semblance of separation skill, yet he remains behind JuJu Dust-Duster. The rookie Douglas ran 12 routes last week (Smith-Schuster: 13).

Rashid Shaheed (we need Jameis to start with Carr less than 100%)

Ravens at Steelers

Must Start

Lamar Jackson / Mark Andrews

Start ‘Em

Zay Flowers – His average depth of target has been all over the place so far (2.6 > 12.8 > 3.7 > 13.3 yards). We really need the downfield looks to continue. For now, Flowers is the only usable piece in this receiver room with Odell Beckham (ankle) and Rashod Bateman (hamstring) both potentially limited as they come back from injuries. As an added matchup bonus, the Steelers have been slammed for the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to outside WRs (29.5). Flowers runs 69% of his routes lined up outside.

FLEX Plays

George Pickens – Despite all of their injuries, the Ravens are allowing a league-low 1.31 YPRR and the second-fewest fantasy points per route run (0.22) to opposing outside wide receivers. Usage-wise, Pickens has seen 26% of the targets of 40% of the air yards over the last three weeks without Diontae Johnson. That’s strong. But, between this matchup and Kenny Pickett’s continued struggles, he’s a completely boom-or-bust WR3.

Sit ‘Em

Najee Harris / Jaylen Warren – Counter to the popular narrative, Najee is not toast. He ranks 8th in yards after contact and 11th in missed tackles forced per carry, which is a triumph given how atrocious the offensive line and scheme is. But, Najee’s 2023 fantasy stock might be toast. With Jaylen Warren getting all of the passing down work now, Najee is left as a TD-dependent option on the league’s least explosive offense. Pittsburgh has exactly 1 (one!) rush attempt inside the 10-yard line this year. The Steelers have the lowest implied total on the slate (17.3 points) – even lower than the Panthers (17.5) and Giants (18.8).

Kenny Pickett

Gus Edwards – Played on a season-high 69% of the snaps last week, but needs touchdowns to really be useful in fantasy. Lamar Jackson is the goal-line RB here. Jackson has five carries inside-the-10 and has converted 4 into TDs. Edwards has one carry inside-the-10 over the last three weeks with JK Dobbins out for the season. Justice Hill is off of the injury report and Keaton Mitchell can be activated off of the PUP this week, throwing a potential wrench into this backfield.

Bengals at Cardinals (4:05pm ET)

Must Start

Ja’Marr Chase – Even with Burrow struggling, the monster games are coming. Chase is WR9 by expected fantasy points per game (18.3 Half-PPR), but WR29 in FPG (10.8).

Joe Mixon – One of the best plays on the slate. The Bengals are using Mixon in an every-down role. Trayveon Williams only comes in when he needs a breather. With Chris Evans (healthy scratch) out in Weeks 2-4, Mixon ranks 5th among RBs in snaps (78%), he’s 1st in carry share (82.1%), and has run a route on 49% of the pass plays (14th). We just need some touchdown upside to cash in a big week.

The Cardinals have allowed a TD on 31% of their opponents' possessions, which is the third-highest rate behind only the Bears (34%) and Broncos (48%). Eight of the Cardinals' 12 TDs allowed have gone to RBs.

Start ‘Em

James Conner – Had his first down game as expected in Week 4 (RB35), but he’s a set-and-forget RB2 on this slate. Conner has finished as a top-24 scoring running back in 9-of-10 career starts without Kyler Murray. The Bengals have been bludgeoned on the ground to the tune of 5.0 YPC (3rd-most).

Zach Ertz – Second among TEs in targets (30) yet 16th in yards (136). He’s consistently getting the ball, though, which is a lot better said than most tight ends. This matchup is quietly great, too. Through four games, the Bengals have allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted PPR points to TEs (+6.6). I’d start Ertz over Waller at this point.

FLEX Plays

Marquise Brown – Dobbs has shown solid chemistry with Marquise Brown as the duo have connected for 18/211/2 (on 27 targets) over the last three weeks. As expected, Hollywood is the target hog here with 33% of the first-read targets (16th). He’s a strong WR3/FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Joe Burrow – We had to give him one last chance last week against the Titans, but until we see tangible improvement, Burrow is a sit in 1-QB leagues. He’s getting the ball out quickly (2.23-second time to throw | second-fastest) but for a lowly 6.2-yard average depth of target (31st-of-34 QBs). Just 72.2% of Burrow’s passes have been catchable (29th), which is obviously completely out of character for him. Deep passing has disintegrated in this offense, making Burrow heavily reliant on yards after the catch. 60% of his passing yardage has come after the catch, which is the second-highest rate (only behind rookie Bryce Young – 64%). At this point, the Bengals are desperate to get to their Week 7 bye at 2-4.

Tee Higgins – Even if he suits up, I imagine he will be limited or simply a decoy so the Cardinals don’t bracket Chase on every snap.

Michael Wilson – Stash, don’t chase.

Tyler Boyd – He’s a passable WR4 in PPR leagues if Tee Higgins (ribs) is out but I really hope you’re searching for more upside. Boyd had 33, 34, and 51 yards in the three games that Higgins missed (or was limited in) last season.

Sleepers

Josh Dobbs – Is definitely in play for streamers this week. After a slow start Week 1 with little preparation time on a new team, Josh Dobbs has settled in and completed 71% of his throws for 7.3 YPA with 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and only 3 sacks over the last three weeks. Dobbs has added 21/144/1 rushing in this span, which has helped fuel scoring weeks of QB8, QB16, and QB8.

Eagles at Rams (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Jalen Hurts / A.J. Brown

D’Andre Swift – Has taken over as the lead runner after this backfield was split in Week 3. Promisingly, Swift handled 64% of the snaps and 14-of-18 RB carries last week. Also, he has out-snapped Ken Gainwell by a 7 to 3 margin inside-the-10 (red zone) over the last two weeks. With this backfield in his favor, Swift is looking like a potential league-winner especially since he’s more involved as a receiver than his predecessor Miles Sanders. Swift is averaging 2.8 targets per game after Sanders saw 1.4 T/G last season. The Rams are allowing 5.1 YPC on zone runs (4th-most), which is the foundation of the Eagles' run game.

Start ‘Em

Kyren Williams – Must start as long as he’s full-go (hip injury sustained at the end of their win vs. Colts).

Devonta Smith – Has finished as the WR71 and WR24 with A.J. Brown going nuclear over the last two weeks. There is no way you’re taking him out of lineups.

Dallas Goedert – Do you really have a better option? Goedert is looking just like George Kittle in fantasy. He’s the clear third option in the passing attack but is so hard to bench in fantasy given the state of the position.

Rams WR situation

Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is eligible to return this week, but you are not benching Puka Nacua regardless. Matthew Stafford is playing so well and can absolutely elevate two top-15 fantasy wideouts together. Even if he’s 75-80% in his first game back, Kupp is a must-start on a weak slate for receivers.

Nacua will likely continue to line up on the outside (70% of routes this season), while Kupp will line up mostly in the slot. Obviously, Nacua won’t have 20 target upside any longer, but the Rams are fifth in pass rate over expectation (+5.9%) and have struggled to run the ball for two straight seasons. This team is built to throw.

My guess is that Van Jefferson (82% route share) gets demoted while speedster Tutu Atwell (88% route share) continues to play as the flanker/motion WR. Atwell will absolutely maintain his spike week potential as a fantasy WR4.

Philadelphia’s secondary has not been the shutdown unit that they were last season. The Eagles are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to outside WRs (28.2 FPG) and 5th-most FP to slot WRs (15.1). That was against the Patriots, Vikings, Buccaneers, and Commanders – which are not exactly the NFL’s best passing teams (besides Minnesota).

Sit ‘Em

Matthew Stafford – Is playing incredibly well, but is not stuffing the box score enough to merit consideration in 1-QB leagues. Stafford has finished as the QB17 > QB22 > QB21 > QB15 in fantasy. Stafford remains a SuperFlex league-only play.

Ken Gainwell

Sleepers

Tyler Higbee – Kupp’s return will hurt Higbee’s target potential, but the Eagles' struggles against tight ends have continued into this season (13.2 Half-PPR points allowed per game | 2nd-most).

Jets at Broncos (4:25pm ET)

Start ‘Em

Garrett Wilson – Has been funneled a whopping 44.1% of the first-read targets as the Jets' entire passing game revolves around him. For reference, that is the second-highest FR target share behind only Davante Adams (55%). I’ve listed him as a sit for the entire season, but this matchup is too good to fade – especially since the Jets are wisely just throwing to their best player. Denver is allowing a league-high 30.6 fantasy points per game to outside WRs. He’s a back-end WR2 play and a strong WR3.

FLEX Plays

Breece Hall – His role is still not where we need it to be, but it’s slowly creeping up. Over the last two weeks, Hall (22 routes, 5 targets) has split passing down work with Michael Carter (15 routes, 4 targets). It’s a matter of time before Dalvin Cook gets phased out here. Cook has had a great career, but he has been ineffective this season. Cook is averaging 2.13 yards after contact and 0.13 missed tackles forced per carry, compared to 5.25 YAC and 0.34 MTF per carry for Hall. It would be an absolute shame if we don’t get a significant bump in Hall’s role this week because this matchup could not be any better. Hall is a swing for the fences RB2 and upside FLEX.

Sit ‘Em

Russell Wilson – There are too many good streamers to consider him in 1-QB leagues, but Wilson is absolutely fine as a QB2 in SuperFlex.

Courtland Sutton / Jerry Jeudy – It’s a rough week at receiver, but both Sutton and Jeudy project as back-end WR3 plays in this spot. Sutton has out-targeted Jeudy by a 23 to 17 margin over the last three weeks. Both have tough matchups here, with the Jets allowing 0.27 fantasy points per route run to outside WRs (7th-fewest) and 0.21 FP/RR to slot wideouts (fewest). Jeudy runs 72% of his routes lined up in the slot. Hopefully you have better options.

Javonte Williams – May be limited coming off a minor hip injury. Broncos RBs split snaps 46% (Perine) to 33% (McLaughlin) in Week 4. Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin deserves a merit-based promotion, which will be something to monitor here. We could be headed to a 3-man committee. This was on top of the backfield split concerns we already had with Williams and Perine. In Weeks 1-3, Perine (47 routes) got more passing down work than Williams (33 routes) and Perine out-snapped Williams by an 11 to 5 margin inside the 10 (red-zone).

Zach Wilson – Can he build off the best start of his career? This is more of a SuperFlex league or DFS play, but the Broncos are absolutely hemorrhaging passing points to opposing quarterbacks. Denver is allowing a league-high 0.69 FP per dropback, which is 44% (!!) more than the 3rd-worst secondary (Las Vegas – 0.48 FP/DB).

Allen Lazard

Tyler Conklin – Second-year TE Jeremy Ruckert got a big promotion last week, running a route on 38% of the pass plays compared to 49% for Conklin.

Marvin Mims – Was still a part-timer last week (36% route share).

Adam Trautman

Chiefs at Vikings (4:25pm ET)

Must Start

Patrick Mahomes / Travis Kelce

Justin Jefferson / TJ Hockenson

Start ‘Em

Kirk Cousins – Played his first sloppy game of the year… and the Vikings won. Go figure with this team. We’re fully expecting his passing volume to rebound in a big way here as 5-point underdogs. Minnesota is #2 in pass rate over expectation (+8.4%) – trailing only Kansas City (+10%). Cousins attempted 44, 44, and 50 passes in Weeks 1-3 and will be back up to his usual high-volume this week. He’s a mid-range QB1 with this game likely to go off for fantasy (53 over/under).

Isiah Pacheco – After being somewhat limited in Week 1, Pacheco’s role has expanded for three straight weeks. Over this span, he’s the RB15 by expected fantasy points – largely driven by his role near the goal line. Pacheco has handled 7-of-8 carries inside-the-10. He’s one of the better RB2 plays on the slate despite the tougher matchup on paper, just like last week.

FLEX Plays

Alexander Mattison – In his first game as a Viking, Cam Akers mixed in on 3 drives to spell Mattison. In totality, Mattison was still the RB1 and out-snapped Akers by a 66% to 32% margin. However, Mattison’s 11.1 XFP last week was far lower than the 19.8 XFP/game he was averaging in Weeks 1-3. The Vikings only ran 44 plays in Week 4, so we are dealing with a really small one-game sample, but Akers’ presence was already felt last week. The only reason anyone liked Mattison in fantasy was due to volume, and that is at risk of falling off a cliff if this turns into a 1A / 1B rotation.

Jordan Addison – Route share was going up in Weeks 1-3 (62% > 72% > 77%) but dropped back down to 67% in Week 4. He obviously got hurt by Kirk Cousins attempting just 19 passes vs. Carolina, so we’re chasing Cousins’ volume rebounding and this high-scoring game environment for Addison to hit as a WR3/FLEX play.

Sit ‘Em

KJ Osborn – Despite running 30 more routes, Osborn has earned 16 targets to Addison’s 19. Osborn ranks 71st-of-79 WRs in yards per route run (0.80).

Skyy Moore – Route share has dropped in four straight games (64% > 62% > 61% > 51%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Kadarius Toney – Was the WR5 in the rotation behind MVS, Moore, Watson, and Rice last week (29% route share).

Cam Akers – Stash only for now.

Sleepers

Rashee Rice – He’s the only Chief receiver worth rostering in fantasy. Rice is second on the team in targets (12) and first reads (19% share) over the last two weeks and his role continues to expand. Rice’s route share has risen in three straight games (11% > 46% > 49%), and he may be due for a merit-based promotion this week. Rice’s 2.69 YPRR ranks 12th among the 100 WRs with at least 50 routes run this season.

Cowboys at 49ers (SNF)

Must Start

Christian McCaffrey

Tony Pollard – This is a tougher matchup on the ground, but Pollard will remain heavily involved as a receiver. The 49ers have allowed four or more receptions to every backfield they’ve faced (25 receptions in total | 4th-most). Rico Dowdle (hip) is questionable.

CeeDee Lamb

Start ‘Em

Brandon Aiyuk – CBs Stephon Gilmore and Daron Bland are playing pretty well with Trevon Diggs out for the season, but no one can keep up with Aiyuk. He’s unguardable right now. Dallas runs man coverage at the league’s highest rate (47%), and Aiyuk leads the 49ers in target share vs. man coverage (29%) over Kittle (21%) and Samuel (18%).

Deebo Samuel – Dallas would be wise to play more zone coverage this week, which would tilt this matchup back into Deebo’s favor. Samuel (26% target share) and Aiyuk (26%) have split targets vs. Cover-3, 4, 2, and 6 looks. Deebo’s Week 4 no-show was due to his rib/knee injuries, and he’ll be back as a normal part of the game plan this week.

Brock Purdy – Has now finished as a top-15 fantasy scorer in 8-of-10 career starts, but has just one finish as a top-5 scorer. This will be Dallas’ first really big test defensively after facing the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots in Weeks 1-4. Even up against an easy schedule, I still have so much respect for this group defensively. Dallas has allowed a league-low 0.21 passing fantasy points per dropback this season. With four teams on bye, Purdy is our QB11 this week – one spot ahead of Joe Burrow.

George Kittle – Over the last 16 games where Samuel and Aiyuk have both played, Kittle has averaged just 7.9 half-PPR points per contest. Dallas has allowed just 2 TDs to tight ends over their last 23 games dating back to the start of last season, which isn’t exactly inspiring either. Despite all of this, Kittle is still our TE6 this week. That’s where things stand at this position. I get you’re frustrated, but the entirety of this position is a wasteland this weekend.

Jake Ferguson – Trails only Kelce (0.33) in targets per route run (0.30), but this is an objectively tough matchup. The 49ers have allowed just 17/120/1 receiving on 35 targets to tight ends. Still, we are chasing targets because there are very few tight ends consistently getting volume like Ferguson. He is a back-end TE1.

Sit ‘Em

Dak Prescott – Has weekly finishes of QB27, QB17, QB17, and QB20 to start the season, leaving him off the radar in 1-QB leagues.

Michael Gallup – Has shown a little life, turning his 13 targets into 11/152 receiving over the last two weeks.

Brandin Cooks – Has 8/66 receiving (15 targets) on the year.

Packers at Raiders (MNF)

Must Start

Josh Jacobs – With their ground game stuck, at least we’re getting bailed out with some career-best receiving usage. Jacobs has 5 or more targets in three-straight games and is averaging 43.3 receiving yards per contest, shattering his career average (19.2 YPG).

Davante Adams – “Nutted up” through a shoulder injury last week. Has seen a ridiculous 55% of the Raiders first read targets, easily leading all players. Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) should be back.

Aaron Jones – Tough runout last week coming off a hamstring injury in a game the Packers fell behind big instantly. He shouldn’t have any workload restrictions after getting 10 days off (played last Thursday). Especially with AJ Dillon struggling, I expect Jones to get back to his Week 1 dual-threat usage. Put him in lineups as a fringe RB1.

Start ‘Em

Jordan Love – Has opened up as the QB3 > Q15 > QB7 > QB14 in weekly scoring with the bulk of his scoring being driven by touchdowns. To that point, Love has scored twice on the ground in Weeks 3-4 but isn’t running enough to truly bank on it for fantasy with 3, 2, 9, and 3 rush attempts so far. Still, we have plenty to work with here with Love as a back-end QB1 up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 3rd-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.48). I’d start Trevor Lawrence ahead of Love. But, I would start Love over Brock Purdy / Joe Burrow.

Christian Watson – Was limited (like HC Matt LaFleur said he would be) in Week 4, but should be full-go here. We are letting it rip and putting Watson into all lineups as a high-upside WR2. The Raiders are allowing 0.49 FP per route run to outside wide receivers, trailing only the Vikings and Broncos (0.50) for the league-high.

Romeo Doubs – Similarly, Doubs is in a great spot and has been Love’s preferred target so far. We will see if that sticks in the coming weeks with Watson back healthy, but you can absolutely start Doubs as a strong WR3.

FLEX Plays

Jakobi Meyers – 10 and 12 targets in two starts with Garoppolo for a 31% target share (Adams: 41%), which puts him on the low-end WR2 radar in PPR leagues. The Raiders are great for fantasy because they’re only throwing to three players – Adams, Meyers, and Jacobs (18% target share).

Sit ‘Em

Jimmy Garoppolo – SuperFlex only.

Jayden Reed – Still a part-time player (64% route share) that lines up mostly in the slot, but all he does is earn targets when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, he will be blocked all season with Doubs and Watson getting all of the work on the perimeter but Reed is already a downfield threat in the middle of the field.

Luke Musgrave – In concussion protocol. If he does suit up, Musgrave’s targets may dry up with Jones, Watson, and Doubs all healthy. Jayden Reed has earned 5 or more targets in every game, too.

Best and Worst Games

Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.