Welcome to Stat Pack, where every week, I dive into the Fantasy Points Data Suite and come out with the best, most important fantasy metrics that matter. This article is meant to be both a review of the week that was and a look forward to the rest of the season.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools early Tuesday mornings.
Quarterbacks
1. Trevor Lawrence isn’t playing poorly. He’s missed a handful of throws in the red zone but has largely been accurate and in rhythm. 62.8% of his passes have been charted as perfectly accurate, which is the 2nd-highest rate behind only Tua Tagovailoa (69.3%).
1b. On throws of 10+ air yards, Lawrence has been off-target just 13.7% of the time (4th-lowest).
1c. However, a league-leading 8% of Lawrence’s passes have been dropped.
2. Tua Tagovailoa has now finished as a top-5 scoring QB six times in his last 14 full games (42.9%).
2b. Tua’s top-5 scoring rate in fantasy trails only Jalen Hurts (57%) and Josh Allen (55%) among QBs over the last three combined seasons.
3. I was wondering if the Bills would start to run Josh Allen less now that they have a solid 3-man RB rotation. Through three games, Allen is averaging just 4 carries per game after averaging 7.1 carries per outing in his previous five seasons.
3b. Allen has 5 designed carries through three games. He averaged 4.5 designed carries per game last season.
4. I’m not sure that this was the plan, but one of the fallouts from JK Dobbins' season-ending injury is that Lamar Jackson has carried the run game with 26 carries for 155 yards and 2 TDs in Weeks 2-3.
4b. Lamar has 14 designed carries over the last two games. He averaged 7.2 designed carries per game last season.
5. CJ Stroud is playing at an extremely high level already. The Texans look like they’ve found their QB of the future. On all throws from a clean pocket, Stroud ranks 6th-best in YPA (8.17) and 10th-best in passer rating (105.0).
5b. On throws of 10+ air yards, Stroud ranks 11th in completions over expectation (+4.0%) and 8th-best in passer rating (116.4).
6. Severe accuracy concerns continue to be the theme for Desmond Ridder…
6b. On throws from a clean pocket, just 76.2% of Ridder’s passes have been catchable. Only Zach Wilson (75.6%) and Kenny Pickett (68.3%) are worse.
6c. Ridder’s throws have been charted as off-target 22% of the time from a clean pocket (2nd-worst).
6d. On throws beyond the line of scrimmage, Ridder has delivered a catchable pass just 67.2% of the time (2nd-worst).
7. Jordan Love has been up and down through three starts, mixing in dimes with some wild throws.
7b. On the one hand, Love ranks 12th in perfectly accurate throws (51.6%) – right behind Justin Herbert (52.1%).
7c. On the other hand, 20% of Love’s throws have been charted as off-target, which is the 5th-highest rate. Kenny Pickett (25%), Desmond Ridder (23.9%), Anthony Richardson (21.3%), and Bryce Young (21.1%) are above him.
Running Backs
1. In his first start, Jerome Ford played on 56% of the snaps while Kareem Hunt played 20% of snaps, while Pierre Strong was down at 11%.
1b. Ford ran 18 routes while Hunt ran 5. Strong got 1 pass down snap.
1c. Five of Strong’s 6 carries came on the final drive with the game well in hand. This looks like a two-man backfield moving forward between Ford and Hunt.
2. Over the last two weeks, Kyren Williams has played on 97% of the Rams’ snaps, and he is the RB2 in XFP (21.4) behind only Tony Pollard (24.1).
2b. This is just an absurd role for William, and we should expect HC Sean McVay to continue to use him as his new bell cow. Ronnie Rivers is just a guy, while Zach Evans has been a healthy scratch in Weeks 1-3.
3. D’Andre Swift followed up his breakout Week 2 performance with another great game – 16/130 rushing vs. Tampa.
3b. However, Swift split snaps (54%) with Kenny Gainwell (46%) basically down the middle. Swift played 10 snaps in the red zone, while Gainwell played 9. And the duo split pass-down work (18 routes for Swift to 15 for Gainwell).
3c. There isn’t a debate on who the better runner is, though. Swift is averaging more yards before contact (3.3 to 1.5) and after contact (3.3 to 1.9) compared to Gainwell. He’s also forcing more missed tackles per carry (0.24 vs. 0.14).
3d. Swift is averaging 6.1 YPC on zone carries, which is the foundation of the Eagles' run game. Gainwell is averaging 3.7 YPC on zone runs.
4. Javonte Williams has handled 36 carries to Samaje Perine’s 12, however, this duo is splitting passing down and red-zone work. 4b. Perine (47 routes) has gotten more passing down work than Williams (33 routes), while both running backs have 11 targets.
4c. Perine has out-snapped Williams by an 11 to 5 margin inside-the-10 (red-zone), which is a huge concern for Javonte long-term if this usage holds.
5. James Cook ranks 16th among running backs in snap rate (64.5%) on all plays not in the red zone.
5b. In the red zone, Cook’s snap rate ranks 48th (36.8%).
5c. Latavius Murray has 4 carries inside-the-10 while Damien Harris has 3. Cook has 1.
6. With David Montgomery (quad) sidelined, Jahmyr Gibbs’ role in Week 3 was solid. He ranked RB15 in XFP (13.5 Half-PPR) and was RB14 in route share (47.1%), although he saw just 2 targets.
6b. Among the 50 RBs with at least 15 carries this season, Gibbs ranks 4th-best in missed tackles forced per carry (0.48) and 5th-best in explosive gains of 15+ yards (9.7%).
7. Chicago’s backfield was a full-blown rotation in Week 3 between Khalil Herbert (55% snap rate) and Roshon Johnson (43%). Johnson’s snap rate has increased slightly in three straight games (39% > 41% > 43%).
7b. As expected, the Bears reverted back to an extremely run-heavy gameplan in Week 3 despite being absolutely destroyed by the Chiefs. The Bears ran the ball +11.8% more than expected (highest rate), while Justin Fields carried the ball 11 times (season-high).
8. Miles Sanders' snap rate (57% > 62% > 65%) has increased every week after he missed most of August with a minor groin injury.
8b. Sanders is tied with Kyren Williams for the lead in targets (18) among all RBs.
9. Jaylen Warren’s snap rate has increased (slightly) every week: 40% > 43% > 45%. I was projecting a 60/40 split (in favor of Najee Harris), but this is trending towards a full-blown 50/50 split.
9b. Warren has 16 targets to Harris’ 6. Just as a reminder: Harris got 93 targets in his rookie season.
9c. Harris and Warren have a canceling-out effect on each other, rendering both as RB3/FLEX plays until something changes usage-wise here.
10. Dameon Pierce’s role has been a massive disappointment so far. He ranks just 26th among RBs in snap rate (50.2%), he’s 17th in team carry share (53.3%), and ranks a lowly 36th in route share (29.7%).
10b. Making matters worse is the Texans offensive line. Pierce is seeing just 0.15 yards before contact, which ranks 47th-of-50 RBs. Devin Singletary (0.90 yards before contact) isn’t getting much help, either.
11. We will see how the Jonathan Taylor saga ends, but Zack Moss has been the highest-end bell cow in Weeks 2-3.
11b. Over the last two weeks, Moss’ 85% snap rate ranks second-highest, and he’s RB5 by XFP (19.4 Half-PPR per game).
11c. Moss has played on 100% of the Colts red-zone snaps in Weeks 2-3.
12. Despite fumbling, Rachaad White’s role got better in Week 3. He played on a season-high 91% of the snaps and led all RBs in route share (78.6%).
13. Alvin Kamara looks primed for a bell cow workload with Jamaal Williams (hamstring) on I.R. for at least the next three weeks. Rookie Kendre Miller (35% snap rate) ran behind Tony Jones (48%) in Week 3.
14. After giving up a few extra passing down snaps in Week 1, Joe Mixon has been a bell cow over the last two games. He’s played on 77% of the snaps (7th-highest among RBs in span), handled 84% of the team’s carries (2nd-highest rate), and he’s run a route on 51% of the pass plays (12th).
14b. Mixon ran a route on 40% of the pass plays last season, so this is a notable boost.
15. Derrick Henry has seen eight or more defenders in the box on 47.1% of his carries, the third-highest rate in the league behind Saquon Barkley (48.2%) and Dalvin Cook (48%).
15b. Henry’s is averaging just 0.61 yards before contact per carry, which is way down from 1.17 in 2022.
16. Unlike Derrick Henry, the Raiders are not seeing an inordinate amount of stacked boxes. Josh Jacobs has seen eight or more defenders in the box on 27% of his carries.
16b. Vegas’ run blocking has just crumbled. Through three games, Jacobs has averaged just 0.24 yards before contact (47th-of-50 RBs) as 60% of his runs have been stuffed (4th-highest rate).
16c. Hopefully, we see some improvement against a Chargers run defense that just allowed 23/120 rushing (5.2 YPC) to Vikings RBs in Week 3.
17. Rhamondre Stevenson’s workload is more valuable this season – the big games are coming. Through three games, Stevenson is the RB6 by route share (54%), and he’s played on 81.3% of the red-zone snaps (RB9). By XFP, Stevenson is the RB14 (14.3 Half-PPR) – yet he’s RB24 by actual FP scored.
18. Tony Pollard has played on 73% of the Cowboys red-zone snaps through three games, which is up from 52.8% last season.
18b. Pollard has finished as the RB5 > RB16 > RB14 to start the season, which feels like a floor outcome for how talented he is and how valuable his role is.
18c. Pollard’s weighted opportunity (24.1 per game) is on another planet right now. That will regress some. But for reference, Christian McCaffrey’s epic 2019 season (21.4 W/O per game) is Pollard’s only rival.
19. Feel free to drop A.J. Dillon. Dillon (52%) split snaps with Patrick Taylor (41%) in Week 3 and he has just 4 targets all season as Jordan Love continues to look downfield or scramble.
19b. Dillon’s advanced metrics also look poor under the surface. Among 50 qualifying RBs, Dillon ranks 40th in yards after contact and 47th in missed tackles forced per carry. Dillon has gained 10 or more yards just once on 37 carries.
Wide Receivers
1. Across his last 23 games, where he’s played at least 60% of the snaps, Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 16.4 Half-PPR points per game. For reference, that scoring would have made him WR6 in 2022 and WR4 in 2021.
1b. As expected, St. Brown is lining up more outside this season. Through three games, he’s lined up outside on 47.3% of his routes – up from 41% in 2022.
1c. Also as expected, St. Brown is dominating out wide (3.26 YPRR | 16th-best right behind Davante Adams – 3.36 YPRR out wide).
2. Drake London has seen just 9 catchable targets through three games. A total of 67 WRs have seen 10 or more catchable targets.
2b. Just 60% of London’s targets have been catchable. This ranks 102nd out of 109 qualifying WRs.
3. Jerry Jeudy has received 30.6% of the Broncos' first read targets over the last two weeks, compared to 22.2% for Courtland Sutton and 19.4% for Marvin Mims.
3b. Frustratingly, Mims’ route share in Weeks 2-3 is a lowly 25.7% as veteran Brandon Johnson (52%) continues to play ahead of him.
4. I’m salivating over Christian Watson’s upside in the Packers offense…
4b. Through three games, Love ranks 1st in average depth of target (10.2 yards) and 3rd in deep throw rate (16.8% of attempts 20+ yards in air).
4c. On throws of 10+ air yards, Love ranks 10th-best in catchable throws (72.5%).
5. Speaking of upside… Jordan Addison’s route share (62% > 72% > 77%) has risen in three straight weeks. However, he still has not run a route in 12-personnel (2WR, 2TE) as veteran KJ Osborn continues to play ahead of him.
6. Zay Flowers’ average depth of target by week: 2.6 > 12.8 > 3.7 yards. Unless he consistently gets some more downfield looks, he’s sort of stuck as a lower-upside WR2/3. Getting 7-10 targets per game will pay the bills for our game, but we need Flowers to get more downfield work (like in Week 2) for him really to hit a ceiling.
7. Elijah Moore caught all 9 of his targets but just for 49 yards in Week 3. His average depth of target cratered to 1.1 yards after his aDOT was 11.4 yards in Weeks 1-2.
7b. The good news (for our game) is that the Browns are a condensed passing attack. Only two receivers are routinely getting the ball. Amari Cooper has received 32% of the first read targets, while Moore is at 22%. Cooper and Moore have accounted for 48% of the team’s overall targets, while the Brown's #3 receiver by target share is David Njoku at a lowly 10.8%.
8. Steelers RB/WR/TE route share in two games without Diontae Johnson… Pickens (90.3%), Austin (80.6%), Freiermuth (74.2%), Robinson (67.7%), Warren (45%), Harris (20%).
8b. George Pickens’ 25.9% target share ranks 15th among WRs in Weeks 2-3.
9. Through three games, Mike Evans has out-targeted Chris Godwin by a 27 to 18 margin.
9b. Evans has seen 51.4% of the team’s air yards, which is the highest share among all wide receivers. Tyreek Hill (50.3%) is #2 while Davante Adams (49.5%) is third.
9c. Evans’ 37.3% first read target share ranks 8th-highest among wide receivers. Comparatively, Godwin ranks 31st (25.4% FR TS).
10. Keenan Allen already has 39 targets (2nd-most), propelling him to WR2 by FPG (22.9 Half-PPR) through three games.
10b. Allen is about to get absolutely fed. He averaged 11.3 targets per game in three contests without Mike Williams last season and had two individual games with 13 and 14 targets.
Tight Ends
1. Rookie TE Sam LaPorta is on pace for 102 receptions through three games, which would shatter the NFL record. He will cool off, but it’s highly impressive that LaPorta has 5 or more receptions in every game so far.
1b. LaPorta’s fantasy finishes are: TE12 > TE8 > TE1.
1c. Only Travis Kelce (0.34) has seen more targets per route than LaPorta (0.30 | 2nd-most tied with Zach Ertz and Jake Ferguson).
2. Kyle Pitts has somehow seen worse QB play this season. Pitts has seen just nine (9!!) catchable targets through three games. A total of 23 TEs have 10+ catchable targets.
2b. Pitts’ catchable target rate (52.9%) ranks dead last among tight ends. Last year, just 63% of Pitts’ targets were catchable. That also ranked last.
3. TJ Hockenson’s career finishes with the Vikings: TE7 > TE11 > TE14 > TE7 > TE16 > TE7 > TE21 > TE1> TE14 > TE6 > TE1 > TE6
3b. TJ Hockenson has finished as a top-10 scoring TE in 58% of his games since joining the Vikings. This would be the second-highest rate among TEs over the last three seasons, trailing only Travis Kelce (76%). Mark Andrews ranks 3rd at 53%.
4. Over the last two seasons, George Kittle has averaged 18.0 half-PPR points per game in the five games that Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk have missed.
4b. Across his 15 other games, Kittle is averaging 8.4 Half-PPR points per game. He’s averaging just 5.3 targets per game with Deebo and Aiyuk healthy.
Team Stats
1. As a team, the Bears have seen just 62 catchable targets – which is tied with the Falcons for second-fewest. The Jets (55 catchable targets) rank dead last.
2. Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy is spreading the ball around here too much for our liking. Washington is getting everyone involved. Six (6!!) different players have a target share between 9-16% on this offense.
3. Through three games, Davante Adams has seen 39% of the Raiders' targets, while Jakobi Meyers is at 31.4%. No other WR or TE on the team is above 6%.
4. The Jets are averaging 19.3 yards gained per drive, last in the league.
4b. A league-low 22.9% of the Jets drives have ended in a score (FG or TD).
4c. The Jets are averaging a league-low 4.7 plays per drive and are 31st in time of possession per drive (2:06).
