2023 Week 3 Stat Pack

Welcome to Stat Pack, where every week, I dive into the Fantasy Points Data Suite and come out with the best, most important fantasy metrics that matter. This article is meant to be both a review of the week that was and a look forward to the rest of the season.

Unless stated otherwise, all of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools early Tuesday mornings.

Quarterbacks

1. Joe Burrow is probably the biggest question in fantasy right now after Justin Fields.

1b. It’s not like Burrow is facing a ton of two-high safety looks that are extremely limiting to deep passing. Burrow has faced a two-high safety look post-snap on 44% of his dropbacks, which ranks 24th.

1c. Burrow has really struggled against one-high safety looks, which is in direct contrast to his norms.

1d. Burrow is averaging 3.28 YPA and completing 47.5% of his throws against one-high safety looks post-snap. Both figures are dead-last by a mile.

1e. He completed 66.4% of his throws (6th-best) for 7.8 YPA (10th-best) against one-high safety looks post-snap last season.

1f. Burrow completed a higher rate of his throws (69%) but for just 6.9 YPA against two-high looks last season.

2. Justin Fields has thrown to his designed first-read target just 53% of the time, which is the sixth-lowest rate and ahead of Kenny Pickett (52.6%), Josh Allen (48.7%), Zach Wilson (47.9%), Bryce Young (46.5%), and Russell Wilson (43.9%).

2b. Despite having the seventh-longest time to throw (2.77 seconds), Fields’ average depth of target is dead last (4.9 yards).

2c. Everything about this passing game is a beat slow or late. Fields is holding the ball too long and not hitting open receivers within the play design.

2d. Fields has checked the ball down 25% of the time on his unpressured dropbacks, by far the highest rate in the league. The league average is 8.1%.

2e. The Bears have tried to throw it. They rank 18th in pass rate over expectation (+0.3%) after ranking 32nd in PROE (-12.8%) last season. I wonder if we will see this coaching staff revert back to their run-heavy ways to try and get a spark on offense. Letting Fields drop back to pass 41 times (Week 1) and 36 times (Week 2) is not tenable.

2f. Fields averaged 6.3 designed carries per game last season. He has only 7 designed carries through two games.

3. Derek Carr leads all QBs in deep throw rate (20.3%!!) followed by Tua Tagovailoa (16%) and then… Baker Mayfield!?!? (14.7%).

3b. Carr has faced two-high coverage looks post-snap on 46.1% of his throws (18th). I expect that number to spike massively, with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed running past everyone.

4. After averaging 3.5 scrambles per game (second-most) last season, Daniel Jones is tied with Lamar Jackson (12) for the QB lead in total scrambles.

4b. It’s not going to be pretty at times. But this rushing volume for Jones is massive. Over his last 10 games, Jones is averaging 8.9 carries per game.

4c. For reference, Jalen Hurts (10.9 carries per game) and Justin Fields (10.7) led all QBs in carries per game last season.

5. Shield your eyes. The numbers behind Kenny Pickett are worse than you might think…

5b. Pickett’s completion rate is -11.9% (!!) below expectation from a clean pocket.

5c. Just 63% of Pickett’s throws from a clean pocket have been catchable (last).

5d. The second-least accurate QB from a clean pocket so far is Zach Wilson but he is 11% better (!!) than Pickett (Wilson’s catchable throw rate is 74.1% from a clean pocket).

5e. Processing and throwing over the middle is a massive problem right now. If we take away the 72-yard TD on a coverage bust to George Pickens, the stats on Kenny Pickett throwing over the middle would be: 6-of-15 for 58 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. Even with the long TD, Pickett’s -19.1% completion rate below expectation on throws over the middle is worst in the league.

5f. For some reason, Pickett has lost his feel for throwing over the middle after a solid rookie season in that department. Pickett ranked ninth-best in completions over expected on throws over the middle last season at +8.3%.

Running Backs

1. Tony Pollard’s role is even better than I thought it would be. Through two games, he leads all RBs in expected fantasy points per game (25.5 XFP Half-PPR).

1a. The next closest RB to Pollard in XFP is Austin Ekeler (23.7 XFP Week 1), followed by Kyren Williams with 19.8 XFP per game.

2. Pollard already has 12 carries inside-the-10 (red-zone) through two games.

2a. Pollard got 12 inside-10 carries in the entire 2022 season.

3. Dallas has scored points on 57.1% of their possessions, the second-highest rate trailing only the Rams (57.9%). 3b. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense has allowed a score on just 8.7% of their opponents' possessions (lowest). Dallas’ defense will ensure consistently great game scripts for Pollard all season long.

4. There are no workload concerns with Christian McCaffrey. He and Pollard are the most valuable RBs remaining, with Ekeler and Barkley dealing with ankle injuries and Nick Chubb out for the season.

4a. CMC has played on 91.7% of the 49ers snaps, by far the highest rate among RBs over the last two weeks. 4b. Elijah Mitchell did not play a single snap in Week 2.

5. Bijan Robinson isn’t too far behind CMC and Pollard, though. Bijan is getting CMC usage within the Falcon's offense…

5b. Robinson ripped the Packers for 172 scrimmage yards on 24 touches, racking up 21.2 FP (RB8) even though he didn’t score a TD. Very few players consistently score 20+ FP without a TD. Bijan is already there. 5c. Through two games, Robinson has out-snapped Allgeier (70% to 45% – the Falcons are running a lot of two-RB formations), with the majority of the snap difference coming on passing downs. 5d. Robinson has run a route on 75% of the Falcons pass plays, which is tied with Christian McCaffrey for the position-high. Kyren Williams (73% route share) is not too far behind, while Rachaad White (59.2%) and Travis Etienne (54.8%) round out the top-5. 5e. Robinson leads all RBs in target share (22%). The only RB that consistently sees 20% of their team targets every year is CMC. 5f. Bijan has gained 5 or more yards on an other-worldly 62.1% of his carries, which easily leads all RBs.

5g. The only long-term concern here is that Robinson has split inside-10 (red-zone) snaps 6 to 5 in favor of Allgeier.

6. Jahmyr Gibbs ran a route on 56.8% of the Lions pass plays in Week 2, which was the ninth-highest rate among RBs. Gibbs ran a route on just 19% of the pass plays in Week 1. 6b. Gibbs has received 0.39 targets per route run – which is second among all RBs. So, that is high-end RB1 usage on passing downs. The runway for a breakout is there. However… 6c. Gibbs is not getting much of the inside-the-tackles dirty work yet. David Montgomery has handled 21 of the Lions' 27 carries in between the A and B gaps (runs behind C or G). 6d. Gibbs’ five carries up the A or B gap have gained 0 yards.

7. I’m not sure if the Bills are going to let him score touchdowns, but James Cook has RB1 upside if he’s ever allowed to cash in scores. 7b. Through two games, Cook ranks 11th-best in yards after contact (3.34) and missed tackles forced (0.34) on a per carry basis. 7c. Cook’s role on passing downs is pretty good so far. He’s running a route on 48.3% of the Bills pass plays (RB11) and has a strong 12.8% target share (RB12). 7d. The bad news is that Cook’s 22.2% red-zone snap share (inside-the-10) ranks 45th among 51 RBs. Damien Harris and Latavius Murray (38.9% snap rate) are the goal-line RBs, which was the fear here.

8. Death, taxes, and James Conner as an underrated fantasy RB2.

8b. Conner ranks RB5 in snap rate (79.7%) and he’s also RB5 in red-zone snaps (90%).

8c. Conner’s efficiency stats under the hood look good, too. He’s averaged 2.89 yards after contact per carry, which is exactly in line with his career norms.

8d. Conner has finished as the fantasy RB4, RB14, RB5, RB12, RB5, RB15, RB21, and RB14 in eight games without Kyler Murray over the last two seasons.

9. Josh Jacobs has seen some of the league’s worst run-blocking through two games.

9b. In Week 1 vs. Broncos – Jacobs saw just 0.53 yards before contact (sixth-worst).

9c. In Week 2 vs. the Bills – Jacobs had nowhere to go (-1.78 yards before contact | worst).

9d. The Raiders rank 24th in ESPN’s run-blocking win rate metrics. 9f. Last year, they ranked 11th-best.

10. Speaking of bad run-blocking, the Steelers run game has absolutely no chance right now.

10b. Through two games, Najee Harris ranks 49th-of-56 RBs in yards before contact (0.38) while Jaylen Warren (0.22) ranks 51st.

10c. The Steelers are dead last – by a mile – in ESPN’s run-block win rate metrics (58%). This is a complete coaching failure and is compounding Kenny Pickett’s shortcomings.

11. Kyren Williams is getting bell cow usage, which is a sentence I never thought I would type. But here we are. I’m skeptical that he can keep it up – Williams is 5’ 9”, 195 pounds after all – but this is like Todd Gurley throwback usage.

11b. Williams played on 96% of the snaps in Week 2, which trailed CMC (100%), Zack Moss (98%), and Barkley (97%).

11c. What has me most excited is his passing down + red-zone usage. Through two games, Williams has 12 targets (tied for most at the position), and he’s played on 87% of the Rams red-zone snaps (RB7).

12. I know he had the big 80-yard run in Week 1, but Breece Hall’s usage through two games is fantasy RB3 territory. Hall is either not 100% ready for his usual workload, or the Jets are just being overly cautious.

12b. Hall has played on just 32.3% of the snaps so far, and frustratingly has run just 12 routes. That’s the third-fewest number of routes in their backfield trailing Carter (21 routes) and Cook (18).

12c. The Jets have run 13 plays inside the red zone. Hall has one (1!!) RZ snap.

12d. Breece will keep ramping up, and I’m not panicking. He will be the lead back soon. Still, we have to question whether or not Zach Wilson and this surrounding offense are good enough. Hall’s floor is really low right now.

12e. The Jets are averaging a pitiful 23.2 yards gained per drive (29th) and 2:08 in time of possession per drive (31st).

12f. So far, this is a repeat of last season when the Jets ranked 27th in yards per drive (27.3) and 31st in time of possession (2:31 per drive).

Wide Receivers

1. Through two games, Joe Burrow has been incapable of hitting his receivers down the field. Tee Higgins has 7 targets of 15+ air yards, while Ja’Marr Chase has 4.

1b. None of those 11 targets were caught. Only 5 were catchable.

2. The good news: Garrett Wilson’s first read target share is an other-worldly 47.8%, second-highest. This means that the entire passing game revolves around Wilson as the #1 wideout.

2b. The bad news: Wilson has seen 9 catchable targets (total) due in large part to the Jets going extremely run-heavy and struggling to sustain drives. When have we seen this movie before?

2c. Wilson’s 9 total catchable targets ranks tied for 40th with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Gabe Davis.

2d. The entire New York Jets offense has a combined 31 catchable targets (H/T Jake Tribbey).

3. Puka Nacua has seen an absurd 30 catchable targets, which is 9 more than Justin Jefferson (21) – who ranks second.

4. CeeDee Lamb has been open or "wide open" on 51.7% of his routes, the highest rate in the league.

4b. Lamb is getting free releases and getting open at will in this new Cowboys scheme, largely because he’s running 78% of his routes from the slot.

5. Stefon Diggs has been great to start the season, getting open or “wide open” on 48.8% of his routes (fourth-highest rate).

5b. Diggs’ first read target share is 39.5%, sixth-highest.

6. Lamb and Diggs’ open score metrics look great, and they are sandwiched between all of the Rams WR/TE. Unreal.

6b. Jefferson (50%), Higbee (49%), Atwell (48%), and Nacua (48%) are all top-6 in open or “wide open” rate through two games.

6c. HC Sean McVay is in his bag scheme-wise, while Matthew Stafford is playing better now than he did last season. He is clearly fully healthy after having elbow issues in 2022.

7. On the opposite side of things, DeAndre Hopkins has been charted as “open” or “wide open” on just 28.3% of his routes (fourth-lowest). This was a massive concern of mine – Hopkins metrics against man coverage completely plummeted last season.

7b. Bengals HC Zac Taylor is the anti-Sean McVay with all three of his wide receivers – Chase (30.1%), Boyd (29%), and Tee Higgins (27.5%) – all ranking bottom-8 overall in open rate.

7c. Open rate is partially a QB stat because passers can obviously lead their receivers into open areas. But, this is not exactly a sterling accomplishment coaching-wise with a gimpy QB in Joe Burrow.

8. The entire Atlanta Falcons offense has seen 38 total catchable targets. That ranks 30th.

8b. For perspective, the league average is already 51 total catchable targets.

8c. Atlanta ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in Week 1 (+7.5% run rate over expected). Their run rate spiked higher in Week 2 (+12.3% | second-highest).

Tight Ends

1. Just four of Kyle Pitts’ 8 targets have been catchable. That’s tied for 34th among tight ends.

1b. Adam Trautman, Josh Oliver, and Will Dissly all have 5 catchable targets.

2. Welcome back: Travis Kelce only ran a route on 55.6% of the Chiefs' pass plays in his 2023 debut coming off a knee injury.

2b. Kelce was open or “wide open” on 52% of his routes, which leads all TEs with at least 25 routes. Jake Ferguson (50%) is second, Tyler Higbee (49.4%) is third, and Dalton Kincaid (46.3%) is fourth.

3. Welcome back: Mark Andrews was almost full-go in Week 2, running a route on 75% of the Ravens pass plays.

3b. Andrews easily led all tight ends in route share last season (83.4%) and ranked third (82%) in 2021, just behind Darren Waller (83.3%) and Travis Kelce (82.1%).

3c. Andrews will push Kelce as the TE1 with the Ravens going pass-heavy under new OC Todd Monken. 3d. Over the last two weeks, the Ravens are eighth in pass rate over expectation (+5.7%).

3e. Last year, the Ravens ranked 25th in pass rate (-3.1% below expected) and 27th in total pass plays.

3f. Through two games, Baltimore is 18th in pass plays (71). This is a 10% increase year-over-year and gives Andrews more upside than ever. Losing J.K. Dobbins could push the Ravens even more pass-heavy, too.

3g. Lamar Jackson’s target distribution in Week 2 – Andrews (8), Agholor (6), Flowers (5), Beckham (4), Bateman (3).

4. After running a route on just 55% of the Patriots pass plays last week, Hunter Henry got a big role bump in Week 2 (76.6%).

4b. That type of usage will keep him right in the thick of TE1 rankings all season long. Henry is the TE5 by XFP per game (11.7 Half-PPR).