2023 Week 2 DFS Early Look

Week 1 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 2 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 2 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 2 DFS.

All stats in this article are from the Fantasy Points Data Suite, unless otherwise noted

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (VS. SEA)

DraftKings: $6,200 (QB11) | FanDuel: $7,300 (QB11)

Goff and Lions tout the league’s highest implied team total this week (28.5), and that should make them popular targets in DFS. Last year, Goff played in 8 games with an implied team total of 23.0 or more, and he averaged an absurd 27.1 DraftKings FPG in those contests – a mark that would have led all QBs last season. Arguably more impressive was that Goff never fell below 21.6 DraftKings points in any of those 8 games, meaning his floor in high team total games is among the league’s best.

Plus, the matchup is one of the best on the slate. Seattle just gave up 334 passing yards to a Rams’ receiving group that was without Cooper Kupp, a year after they ranked as the 10th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup (+1.7 FPG) for opposing QBs. Goff can be safely relied on in all formats.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,700 (QB15) | FanDuel: $7,100 (QB14)

In his 8 fully healthy starts, Brock Purdy averages 19.8 DraftKings FPG, which ranks behind only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields on this 12-game slate.

Purdy averages more yards per pass attempt (8.0) over his career than every modern QB not named Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, or Jimmy Garoppolo – a former 49er. Purdy’s 0.52 fantasy points per dropback rank 7th-best among slate-eligible QBs. And yet, he’s priced as a QB2.

Of course, Purdy and the 49ers will likely need to be pushed for his elite per-dropback efficiency numbers to translate to a tournament-winning fantasy performance. It’s difficult to argue that in Week 2, with San Francisco listed as an 8-point favorite against LA. But the Rams just dropped 30 points and 426 yards in Week 1, and they may have more juice offensively than Vegas is giving them credit for. At the very least, we can trust Purdy’s floor. He’s never scored less than 16.0 fantasy points in a regular season game, good for 2.8X his current DraftKings salary.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $8,900 (RB1) | FanDuel: $9,500 (RB1)

McCaffrey ranked 2nd in weighted opportunity and earned an 88% snap share and 79% route share with the starters on Sunday – good for his 2nd-best single-game marks ever as a 49er. Those are elite numbers, especially when we note the 49ers won this game easily, leading by double-digits for 49 minutes of the game.

Even better than that (for McCaffrey) was how uninvolved Elijah Mitchell was. Mitchell earned just 6 opportunities and a 15% snap share – his lowest-ever snap share since CMC joined the team. If this continues, McCaffrey could push for one of the best fantasy seasons of his career…

I noted last week that we generally want to play McCaffrey as an underdog thanks to his receiving prowess, but I’m more than happy to pull the trigger on CMC this week as an 8.0-point favorite after the impressive usage he saw in a Week 1 blowout.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $5,000 (RB30) | FanDuel: $5,900 (RB29)

Nobody saw Kyren Williams’ Week 1 usage coming…

Williams’ 65% snap share would’ve ranked 10th-best among RBs last season. His 71% route share would’ve led all RBs. His 16.9 weighted opportunity points would’ve ranked 6th-best, ahead of Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, and Rhamondre Stevenson.

Extrapolating Williams’ single-game usage across a full season is almost certainly a fool’s errand, but it helps put things into context. The bottom line is that Williams’ usage was really, really good in Week 1.

His Week 2 matchup is brutal – the 49ers were the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last season (-4.3 FPG). But a ~60% snap share and ~15 touches at a $5,000 salary is the definition of a DFS value. I wouldn’t expect heavy ownership on Williams considering the matchup, but I’m more than willing to take shots here in tournaments after (now backup) Cam Akers turned in an abysmal 1.3 YPC on 22 carries in Week 1.

Deon Jackson or Zack Moss, RBs, Indianapolis Colts (@ HOU)

Jackson handled the 4th-best workload of the slate (by weighted opportunity) last week but was incredibly inefficient, scoring just 5.8 fantasy points. Still, his underlying usage was outstanding. He earned a 71% snap share, 60% route share, and had 19 total opportunities.

We can’t ignore Jackson’s pathetic 1.1 YPC or two lost fumbles, and neither will the Indianapolis coaching staff. If Zack Moss ($4,700) – who is recovering from a broken arm – can go in Week 2, I’d expect him to absorb the entirety of Jackson’s role (a role that could be even better in Week 2 since Evan Hull is also banged up). Last season, Moss averaged 11.9 DraftKings FPG and 83.5 rushing YPG in his four games as the Indianapolis bell cow. These are not mind-blowing numbers, but they represent solid value at a near-minimum price tag.

Regardless of who the Colts’ bell cow is in Week 2, they should be more efficient than they were last week. Houston was easily the league’s worst run defense last season, allowing +5.7 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing RBs. Combine that with a solid potential of positive gamescript (IND is a 1.0-point underdog), and it’s easy to see ~20 touches for whoever the Colts’ starter is.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. KC)

DraftKings: $7,200 (WR7) | FanDuel: $8,300 (WR2)

Ridley saw the best usage (21.8 XFP) of any flex player in the early window of games on Sunday…

He also dominated 1st read targets (36% 1st read share) – demonstrating that he is the clear WR1 in this Jacksonville offense. And is there a better game to target an underpriced WR1 than in the slate’s highest-total (51.0) contest against Kansas City?

The Chiefs gave up the most receiving TDs (33) and the 9th-most receiving yards (4,144) last season, and they posted a bottom-6 PFF coverage grade in Week 1. So, the matchup is great, and Ridley is obviously too cheap. In the final four games of his career-best 2020 season, Ridley’s average DraftKings salary was $8,175 – nearly 14% more expensive than his current price.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (@ TEN)

DraftKings: $7,100 (WR8) | FanDuel: $7,800 (WR5)

Allen posted a strong 27% target share and 9 targets in his first game in the Kellen Moore system despite the Chargers recording the week's lowest neutral situation pass rate. He was notably featured downfield; his 10.9 aDOT ranked 2nd-best on the team, and he was the only Charger to earn multiple targets 20 or more yards downfield.

That’s worth keeping in mind, with Los Angeles set to play Tennessee this week. The Titans gave up 107 passing yards and a touchdown to New Orleans on throws of 20 or more yards in Week 1, and they gave up the most receiving yards (4,935), 3rd-most YAC (2,235), and the most deep receiving yards (1,314) of any pass defense last season.

Allen’s projected usage and outstanding matchup should mean a price tag much closer to $8,000 on DraftKings. Take advantage of that discount.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $5,000 (WR30) | FanDuel: $6,600 (WR19)

Flowers was the guy in the Ravens offense. Lamar Jackson attempted just 22 passes, and 10 of those passes (45%) went Flowers’ way. He finished with 17.7 fantasy points and 17.7 XFP (6th-best among 1 PM/TNF WRs). He also looked remarkably explosive with the ball in his hands, leading all WRs with 4 missed tackles forced and finishing 3rd (behind only Justin Jefferson and Chris Olave) in YAC (54).

Flowers’ Week 2 volume could take a hit with the return of Mark Andrews, but we can’t ignore his elite after the catch ability and usage in Week 1. He’s severely underpriced on the upcoming slate, and I’d expect him to be one of the most popular WRs of the week as a result.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $4,900 (WR34) | FanDuel: $5,800 (WR37)

Nacua’s Week 1 volume was off the charts. He recorded a 40% target share in his first-ever NFL game. Last season, there were only 26 instances of a player earning a 40% target share or better. And he played great, earning PFF’s 6th-best receiving grade (80.0) while dropping 21.9 fantasy points (8th-best of any WR).

At least, based on his volume, it probably isn’t a stretch to say Nacua is the Cooper Kupp of this offense until Kupp returns from IR.

The 49ers were a largely neutral matchup for opposing WRs last season, so fading Nacua in a game the Rams should be playing from behind based on fears about this defense is likely a mistake. The bottom line is he saw historically great volume in Week 1, and if he gets anywhere close to that usage in Week 2, he will be one of the top values of the slate.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans (VS. IND)

DraftKings: $4,800 (WR36) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR28)

Nico Collins averaged 15.4 XFP/G in the final nine weeks of 2022 (WR15 over the full season). And in Week 1, we saw him (yet again) dominate WR usage, finishing with the 2nd-most XFP (19.7) of any WR from the 1 PM and TNF games.

By usage, Collins is a low-end WR1. But he’s priced as a WR3. He profiles as one of the best overall values of the slate against a Colts’ pass defense that gave up the league’s 3rd-highest passer rating last season (96.2).

Darren Waller, TE, New York Giants (@ ARI)

DraftKings: $5,500 (TE3) | FanDuel: $6,600 (TE3)

This is the ultimate buy-low spot on Darren Waller. In Week 1, Waller recorded an 83% route share and a team-leading 18% target share despite entering the game questionable with a hamstring injury.

Sure, the Giants' offense was a total disaster, and Waller finished the game with 6.6 points fantasy points, but that won’t happen against Arizona.

Last year, Arizona gave up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs (+4.1 FPG), on top of the most receptions (101) and TDs (12). This is the dream matchup for Waller.

Remember, Waller is going to be the WR1 for the New York Giants. This is the best “WR” Daniel Jones has ever had, and he will be targeted as such. Everything this offseason and coming out of camp fully supports this notion [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9]. Don’t let one bad game scare you off, especially since the other expensive TEs on this slate have major injury question marks.