This article will recap all fantasy-relevant injuries. Remember, we are operating with limited information, and as the week progresses, situations will become clearer.
Tyreek Hill - High Ankle
Cue the “Hello darkness, my old friend” music. (EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m leaving this unchanged, but Edwin must truly believe this is a meme and not one of the most famous songs of all time.)
What’s the Verdict?
Tyreek has a high ankle sprain. For the full picture, I included all of the data points I’ve collected for WRs with high ankle sprains since 2014. This is featured in the inaugural Injury Prone Draft Guide and Playbook.
How Much Time Will He Miss?
Well, considering he returned and looked fine, we assume he has no fractures and/or structural damage, which is great. Still, these tighten up and feel worse over time, so I’d anticipate he returns next week and is at less than 100% with significant re-injury risk.
How Will This Impact His Performance?
WRs, much more often than RBs, try to return too soon and end up with a whopping 32% re-injury rate vs. just 12% for RBs. This is really the primary concern for Hil, who is chasing the receiving yards record. Notably, there’s a 0% Week Winner rate for WRs after a high ankle sprain (defined as the rate at which a WR returning from a high ankle sprain scores at least 150% of their mean score on the season). When WRs return from this injury, they also see a massive 34% dip in PPR fantasy points and a 26% dip in targets per game. Still, it’s Tyreek Hill.
Bottom Line: Clinically, Hill should take at least 1 week off, which won’t happen. Analysts will be hard-pressed to recommend sitting him in Week 15, given his lethal speed. He just needs 1-2 plays to pay off. He’s a high-risk/high-reward must-play in Week 15.
Justin Herbert - Finger
Justin Herbert injured his right index finger. The concern is he suffered an injury similar to Russell Wilson’s in 2021. Wilson’s injury required surgery, and he sat for 5 weeks. That would be the absolute worst-case scenario for Hebrert, though. Even in a best-case scenario (before knowing more details about the injury), playing and playing well on Thursday is extremely unlikely. In fact, Herbert may be droppable.
Justin Jefferson - Ribs
Justin Jefferson took an absolute crushing blow to his ribs and was taken to the hospital to check for internal organ damage and/or rib fractures. Now, a hospital trip sounds bad, and it is. However, like we saw with Derek Carr earlier this season, it’s not always as damning as it may seem. Sure enough, there’s no structural damage to Jefferson’s ribs. So now, missing 0-1 games is likely (think Tee Higgins from earlier this season). Given the six-day turnaround, my gut tells me Week 15 will be an uphill battle, though. If he does end up playing, there’s an 18% dip in YAC and a 16% reinjury rate.
Alexander Mattison - High Ankle
Alexander Mattison has a high ankle/eversion type sprain to his right ankle. Given the specific mechanism, there’s a small chance this isn’t as severe as a traditional high ankle sprain. However, since we don’t have specific details about the injury, the baseline should be a traditional high ankle sprain. Typically those result in 0 games missed or 3 games missed (strangely enough, it’s a bi-modal injury). In other words, this may be Ty Chandler’s time to shine.
C.J. Stroud - Concussion
C.J. Stroud took a hit and was placed in concussion protocol. Anecdotally in 2023, Derek Carr had two weeks to recover after his first concussion, Jaren Hall wasn’t going to start anyway, Jimmy Garoppolo missed 1 game, and Brock Purdy returned in 6 days. So quite the mixed bag! Here are the numbers: the mean missed time for QBs after a concussion is 1 game, and the median is 0.5 game. The mode (most frequently missed value) is 0 games. The unfortunate reality in the NFL is that if a team needs to get their QB back in 1 week after a concussion, they will. As long as he doesn’t show obvious signs of a concussion like memory loss, headaches, and fogginess, Stroud will probably be active next week. If he does end up playing, the re-injury risk is 33%, and turnover-worthy play rate is > 60%.
Nico Collins - Calf
Nico Collins sustained a calf injury. We assume this is a re-injury to the same side as before. Even though Joe Burrow returned after a re-injury to his own calf, it’s important to remember how different the physical demands are for a WR. It’s not likely we see Collins next week, and missing the rest of the fantasy playoffs isn’t out of the realm of possibilities until we hear otherwise from the team.
Josh Jacobs - Quad
The Raiders are calling this a quad injury as opposed to a knee, which is what it was originally listed as. Given that context, Jacobs having a contusion would make sense. This gives Jacobs about a 49% chance to play in Week 15, but he’s not necessarily a must-start due to the bad offense and reinjury risk. The short turnaround to Thursday makes it less likely, too.
Geno Smith - Groin
Geno Smith sustained a groin strain, and it’s apparently being called “a 2-week injury”. With that said, he’ll have until next Monday night to prepare. Anecdotally, he has about a 50/50 shot to actually suit up with a high re-injury risk.
Good luck!
