Welcome to Week 14 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em.
As always, my DMs in our subscriber Discord (@GrahamBarfield) are open for any Start/Sit questions you may have, while Tom Brolley, John Hansen, and I will be streaming for subscribers on Sunday mornings to help answer any of your tough calls.
Unless stated otherwise, all of the data in this article is from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we will have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.
Good luck this week!
Patriots at Steelers (TNF)
This game is tied for the lowest over/under for an NFL game since 2004. At 30 total points, Patriots-Steelers is, unfortunately, the 8th-lowest O/U since at least 1990.
New England’s implied total – based on the over/under – is 12.0 points. That’s the 2nd-lowest team total this season (Giants – 10.5 points in Week 10 vs. Cowboys is still the lowest).
Start ‘Em
Jaylen Warren – He will get elevated into a larger role since Najee Harris (knee) did not practice all week. Warren is a big play threat any time he gets into the open field, but the problem is that the Patriots have not allowed explosive plays all year. New England is allowing a league-low 3.11 YPC and a 39.7% rush success rate. I’m dialing up Warren as a volume-based RB2 with a little more TD upside than usual if Harris is out or limited. Najee has out-carried Warren by a 13 to 3 margin inside-the-10 (red-zone).
FLEX Plays
Ezekiel Elliott – Taken down by an obvious “hip drop” tackle against the Chargers in Week 13, Rhamondre Stevenson might miss the rest of the fantasy season with an ankle injury. The tank is on! With only recent signee Ja’Mycal Hasty behind him, Ezekiel Elliott is in line for 18-22 touches this week. It’s just so hard to get excited about this team with a minuscule implied total.
Sit ‘Em
Najee Harris – Dealing with a knee injury.
Diontae Johnson – Beyond the quarterback issues here, the Steelers are the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the league. It’s near impossible for receivers to survive awful play from passers on low volume. Pittsburgh is averaging 33.2 pass plays per game (5th-fewest). Once again, Johnson projects as a low-floor WR3.
George Pickens – At the end of the day, we just want a few catchable targets from Mitch Trubisky. It’s not been great so far! This duo has connected on just 2-of-7 targets across three scattered games. At the very least, Pickens has a good matchup here. The Patriots play the 8th-most one-high safety coverage (60.2%), and that has been a clear positive indicator for Pickens all season. Against single-high safety looks, Pickens has a 25% target share and he averages 3.05 YPRR (10th-of-90 WR/TE), but that dips to a 17% TS with a 1.15 YPRR (68th-of-77) when secondaries play two-high safety coverage.
Pat Freiermuth – At absolute best, he’s a back-end TE1. The Patriots are allowing the 6th-fewest yards per game (37.8) to tight ends. Freiermuth crushed the Bengals two weeks ago (9/120 on 11 targets) but he’s been largely unproductive in his four other full games (8/75/2 on 14 targets).
Mitch Trubisky
Bailey Zappe – Fire up Steelers D/ST.
DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster – Parker received a season-high 9 targets (36% share) last week with Zappe under center. JuJu remains the league’s least explosive WR. He’s turned his 41 targets into 170 yards of offense this season. Demario Douglas (concussion) is going to miss another game.
Hunter Henry
Jaguars at Browns
Start ‘Em
Travis Etienne – The Jaguars (15.3 points) are just ahead of the Jets (15) for the 2nd-lowest implied total on the Week 14 slate. The only good news for Jacksonville and Travis Etienne here is that Cleveland is no longer a run defense to fear. Over their last six outings, the Browns have allowed 135/692/6 rushing (5.12 YPC) – excluding their Week 9 affair with the Cardinals when Arizona tanked. D’Ernest Johnson has overtaken Tank Bigsby for the RB2 job. Bigsby has played four snaps on offense in Weeks 12-13.
Evan Engram – If we’re looking for optimism, Engram was targeted six times (5/36 receiving) by CJ Beathard (14 passes) after he entered the game last week. We’ve been fading tight ends against the Browns all season. However, this is one of the rare cases where starting Engram makes sense. With Christian Kirk out, Engram is the only player the Jaguars will scheme up over the middle. He led the team with 28% of the first read targets last week (compared to 24% apiece for Ridley and Zay Jones).
FLEX Plays
Jerome Ford – This backfield has turned out as a timeshare. Over the last five weeks, Ford has handled the majority of the passing down work with 22 targets to Hunt’s five. However, he has 67 carries to Kareem Hunt’s 57. The red-zone usage is split right down the middle, too. Hunt and Ford have both played on 46% of the Browns' snaps inside-the-20 since Week 8. Ford’s passing down usage gives him a much better fantasy projection, but Hunt still has some touchdown upside since he’s so involved in the red zone. Ford is a back-end RB2/FLEX again. Hunt is a desperation FLEX.
Amari Cooper – Surprisingly, Amari Cooper cleared protocol and he will play on Sunday. Cooper was targeted five times on Joe Flacco’s first 15 throws before a big hit knocked him out of the game last week. This is an awesome matchup. Only the Eagles (25.2) and the Commanders (24.4) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing outside receivers than the Jaguars (23.9). As always, Cooper is in play as a WR3/FLEX. His return takes the steam out of Elijah Moore this week.
Sit ‘Em
Calvin Ridley – The high ankle injury to Trevor Lawrence is a buzzkill since he and Ridley were just starting to hit their stride. The Jaguars are also losing Christian Kirk (groin) for the regular season, and that will force them to find ways to get Ridley off of press coverage and into advantageous matchups. The Jaguars coaching staff has not been good at making adjustments all year. OC Press Taylor struggled to get Ridley involved when they were missing Zay Jones earlier, so we have some additional downside risk here. CB Denzel Ward (shoulder) should be back for the Browns, too. Ridley is a boom-or-bust WR3.
Elijah Moore – He has two top-25 finishes among WRs across 12 games. After Amari Cooper (head) left the field last week is when Elijah Moore started getting fed the ball. In total, 11 of Moore’s 12 targets came after Cooper left the game. As usual, Moore is a low floor WR4 with Joe Flacco under center.
David Njoku – As expected with the quarterback change, Njoku turned back into the same player that he’s always been. This season, some massive splits have developed with him based on who is under center. In six games started by Deshaun Watson or Flacco – two quarterbacks that can actually push the ball down the field – Njoku is averaging 5.2 targets and just 21 yards per game with 4.1% of the air yards. However, in six starts with either Dorian Thompson-Robinson or PJ Walker, he’s been far more involved with 8.3 targets and 52.7 yards per game (16% AY share). Mental errors and drops have plagued him all year. Teammate Harrison Bryant set season-highs in route share (35%) and targets (5) last week.
Joe Flacco – He’s only a consideration for 2-QB leagues.
C.J. Beathard – Fire up Browns D/ST.
Zay Jones
Rams at Ravens
Must Start
Lamar Jackson – The Rams have really struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks, and have allowed 33/177/3 rushing (5.4 YPC) across just four games to Anthony Richardson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Dobbs, and Kyler Murray.
Kyren Williams – In eight starts, Williams has finished as a top-10 scoring RB in fantasy 6 times.
Start ‘Em
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – In their six games together with Matthew Stafford under center, Nacua holds the lead over Kupp in targets (51 to 49) and fantasy points per game (12.2 FPG to 11.1 Half-PPR). After blowing out the Cardinals in Week 12 and producing in a tougher matchup last week, this duo catches another tough spot here.
The Ravens are putting the clamps down on opposing receivers no matter where they line up, and are allowing league-lows in fantasy points scored per route run to outside and slot receivers alike. At the very least, we know these two are going to be funneled targets with the Rams being pushed to throw by the Ravens. You’re keeping Nacua and Kupp in lineups as WR2 starters.
Zay Flowers – In his first start without Mark Andrews in Week 12, Flowers led the team in targets (8) and scored twice. His 20.7 FP in Week 12 marked just the third time that he has finished higher than WR25 in weekly scoring across 12 games. I’m not all the way in on Flowers yet, but there is no denying that his involvement will remain strong with Andrews out.
Despite being a part-time player, Odell Beckham (10.4 XFP per game) has had the slightly better role by expected fantasy points over Zay Flowers (10 XFP/G) in their last 7 games together. Beckham ran a season-low 33% of the routes in Week 12, but he should be the healthiest that he’s been all season out of the Ravens bye. Flowers is a WR3 starter. Beckham is in play as a desperation WR4/FLEX.
Isaiah Likely – In his start without Mark Andrews (ankle) in Week 12, Likely set a season-high in target share (16%) and led the team in receiving (40 yards). We’re continuing to play all tight ends against the Rams. Last week, the Browns tight end group combined for 8/72/1 receiving (on 12 targets) in this matchup. Only the Broncos (9.0) and the Bengals (8.8) are allowing more yards per target to tight ends than the Rams (8.3).
FLEX Plays
Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell – It’ll be very interesting to see if the Ravens make any changes to their backfield out of the bye. In their last four games, the rookie Keaton Mitchell’s involvement has ticked up slightly every single week (18% > 24% > 36% > 46% snap rates). Mitchell should be around 10-14 touches per game to close the regular season, while Gus Edwards will continue to dominate the goal-line carries. He is this year’s Jamaal Williams. Even with Mitchell involved more, Edwards has eight carries (5 TDs) inside-the-10 over their last four games. Mitchell has played one (1!) snap inside-the-10 all season. Unless the Ravens allow him to try and score TDs, Mitchell is stuck as a low-floor RB3/FLEX. You need Gus Edwards to hit paydirt for him to pay off as an RB2 option, and he’s scored at least one TD in 6 of his 11 starts.
Sit ‘Em
Matthew Stafford – After running cold in the touchdown department for most of the season, Stafford diced the Cardinals and Browns for 7 TDs and 508 yards in his last two starts. The box score results weren’t living up to Stafford’s “real” play for fantasy early in the season, so these two back-to-back games were way overdue. It’s really hard to get excited about him as a streamer this week, though. The Ravens are allowing a league-low 0.24 passing fantasy points per dropback and league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Baltimore has allowed one quarterback to finish inside the top-12 weekly finishers, and that was to Josh Dobbs (who needed 6/26/1 rushing to get there).
Rashod Bateman – Hasn’t seen more than 5 targets in a single game.
Tyler Higbee
Sleepers
Odell Beckham
Lions at Bears
Must Start
Amon-Ra St. Brown – Last week was the first time all season that he caught fewer than 5 passes in a single game.
Sam LaPorta – On pace to shatter the rookie receptions record for a TE with 91. The current record holder has been held for 35 years by Keith Jackson (81 receptions in 1988 for the Eagles).
D.J. Moore – Fields and Moore are borderline unstoppable, and they’re catching this matchup with the Lions sliding secondary at the right time. In seven full games with Fields at quarterback, Moore has hauled in 45-of-56 targets for 741 yards and 6 TDs. By fantasy points per game, Moore is the WR2 with Fields under center (18.9 Half-PPR) over Justin Jefferson (18.6). He’s seen a whopping 42% of the first read targets, and his 3.17 yards per route run trails only Tyreek Hill (4.50), Brandon Aiyuk (3.26), and Nico Collins (2.99) for the league lead among receivers (in games started by Fields).
Justin Fields – The Lions secondary has been reeling since their bye, and they have allowed 8.4 YPA (3rd-most) to the Chargers, Bears, Packers, and Saints over the last four weeks. In totality, Detroit has allowed seven different QBs to score over 20 FP against them this season. And, just like last year, the Lions have continued to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. Detroit is allowing a league-high 28.5 rushing yards per game to QBs after giving up 41.2 YPG last season (most).
Start ‘Em
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs – These two are too good to take out of lineups as high-upside RB2 plays. We do need to give some credit to Chicago’s stellar run defense, though. Only the Patriots (3.11) are allowing fewer yards per carry than the Bears (3.26). The good news – for Gibbs, at least – is that the Bears remain our target for pass-catching running backs. No team is giving up more receiving yards per game (59.4) to RBs. That is by design. Chicago is keeping everything in front of them in the secondary and is forcing the 2nd-highest checkdown rate (12.7%) as a result.
Cole Kmet – In seven starts with Fields under center, Kmet is averaging 5.4 targets per game (16th among TE) and 9.1 fantasy points per game (TE7). That low volume is a problem with DJ Moore dominating targets. You’re chasing a TD with Kmet, and this is a decent spot to do it since the Lions have allowed 6 TDs to tight ends (tied for 2nd-most).
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff – Goff has not finished higher than QB8 in weekly scoring since Week 6. This is not the spot to expect a big ceiling week. The Bears are playing very tight coverage, and they just held Goff to one of his worst games of the season a few weeks back. This is not a new trend. Over the last seven games (since stud CB Jaylon Johnson returned), Chicago is allowing just 214.2 passing yards per game (7th-fewest) and a stifling 5.9 YPA (2nd-fewest). It’s just enough to pull Goff off the board in 1-QB leagues.
Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and D’Onta Foreman – Ideally, you can avoid this Bears committee for Week 14 decisions. With D’Onta Foreman (ankle) likely back this week, I have no idea who is going to lead this backfield. My guess is that the Bears might want to get an extended look at the rookie Roschon Johnson in the back half of the season. Johnson (74% snaps rate | 14.2 XFP) overtook Khalil Herbert (21% snaps | 6.2 XFP) in their last outing vs. Vikings in Week 12.
Jameson Williams – He’s a part-timer still. Over the last four games since their bye, Williams has run a route on 57.8% of the pass plays (9 targets, 7/124/1 receiving and 1/19/1 rushing). That explosive TD last week highlights his game-breaking potential but we need way more involvement here.
Darnell Mooney
Panthers at Saints
Must Start
Alvin Kamara – Carolina continues to give up touchdowns to running backs in spades. The Panthers have allowed 19 TDs in 12 games to RBs, and only two opposing backfields have failed to score at least one TD against them (Vikings and Texans). Kamara has cleared 70 yards from scrimmage in nine straight games. If Taysom Hill (foot) sits out, Kamara will draw one of the biggest workloads of the weekend. Rookie RB Kendre Miller (ankle) still isn’t practicing.
Start ‘Em
Chris Olave – Panthers CB Jaycee Horn returned last week, but it did not matter as Mike Evans absolutely erupted for 7/162/1 receiving. Olave has eight or more targets in 10-of-12 games. No defense plays more Cover-3 zone than the Panthers (50.4%). Olave is absolutely dominating targets (27% share), and air yards (47%) against Cover-3 looks, and the next closest Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (14% TS | 22% AY) is well behind him. Shaheed (thigh) is still not practicing.
Taysom Hill – He can absolutely get in on the Panthers scoring action near the goal line. Hill has rushed for 46/224/4 over the last six weeks, and he’s added 15/164/1 receiving (on 19 targets). Oh, and he has a passing TD.
Add it all up… and Hill is fantasy football’s TE2 – just ahead of George Kittle (13.4) – since Week 7 with 13.5 FPG. That’s right. Travis Kelce is the TE1 over the full season with 13.5 Half-PPR points per game.
Update: Hill did not practice all week with a foot injury. I’d make other plans at TE.
FLEX Plays
Chuba Hubbard – Interim HC Chris Tabor fired RBs coach Duce Staley last week, and Staley was a part of the reason the team brought in Miles Sanders. As a result, the new coaching staff proceeded to give Hubbard a season-high 25 carries. I did not see 104 yards and 2 TDs coming. Sanders is dusty, and Hubbard made the most of his opportunity in Week 13. The Saints' run defense is not as near as good as it once was. They’ve allowed 131/647/4 rushing (4.93 YPC) to the Colts, Bears, Vikings, Falcons, and Lions over their last five games.
Sit ‘Em
Adam Thielen – Those WR1 days are long gone. In a perfect matchup last week, Thielen ended with 3/25 receiving on 6 targets against the Buccaneers. This is after a 1-catch, 2-yard game against the Titans. After air-balling against two defenses we target for receivers every week, Thielen is a low floor FLEX at best now.
Jonathan Mingo – He has out-targeted Adam Thielen by a 16 to 9 margin over the last two weeks, and turned those looks into 10/129 receiving (Thielen – 4/27). The Panthers are in tank/evaluation mode, and I expect that Mingo will continue to get first reads. He’s seen 39.1% of the first read targets over the last two weeks, while DJ Chark and Thielen are at 17.1%.
Derek Carr – He’s been limited in practice all week with a concussion and shoulder/ribs injuries. He will start. Since their bye in Week 8, the Panthers have held the Texans, Colts, Bears, Cowboys, Titans, and Buccaneers to just 170 passing yards per game (fewest in span) and a league-low 5.6 YPA.
Bryce Young
A.T. Perry – He and Lynn Bowden will “start” another game. Bowden ran a route on 61% of the pass plays last week, while Perry was at 58%. Rashid Shaheed (thigh) is still not practicing. Michael Thomas (knee – IR) will remain out for another two games at least.
Juwan Johnson
Buccaneers at Falcons
Must Start
Mike Evans – Excluding the Week 4 game in which he left early due to injury (hamstring), Evans ranks WR5 by fantasy points per game (16.9) over A.J. Brown (16.6). He’s finished as a top-25 scoring WR in 9-of-11 full games, and five of those performances were top-10 scoring weeks.
Bijan Robinson – I really hope that you didn’t watch the eyesore that was Falcons-Jets last week. While the Falcons basically did nothing on offense for four quarters, the good news was that Robinson’s usage continued to trend upwards. Over the Falcons' last three games, Bijan has 56/239/2 rushing, and he’s added 7/69/1 through the air (on 13 targets). His underlying usage metrics look much better. Bijan has handled 71% of the snaps and a stronger 63% of the backfield expected fantasy points in Atlanta’s last three games (that’s up from a 65% snap rate and just 51% of the backfield XFP in Weeks 1-9).
Tampa Bay just gave up 25/104/2 to Chuba Hubbard and they’re reeling from injuries on defense. Bucs stud DT Vita Vea (toe) did not practice all week and LB Devin White (foot) is out. Atlanta is leaning more on the run than ever with a +14.6% run rate over expected (!!) across their last three games. That’s more than double their season-average +6.6% run rate.
Start ‘Em
Rachaad White – He’s finished as a top-20 scorer among RBs in eight of his last 9 games.
FLEX Plays
Drake London – As expected, London (1/7 receiving) did not do anything last week against the Jets tough perimeter coverage. This matchup is lightyears easier, and it’s enough to put London back on the WR3/FLEX radar. Tampa Bay is allowing the 5th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.0) to wide receivers. London went for 6/54 (on 7 targets) when these teams met earlier this year. Bucs CB Jamel Dean is out.
Sit ‘Em
Chris Godwin – He went into last week with a neck injury, but a goose-egg receiving was a new low. The injury didn’t limit his playing time, though. Godwin ran a route on his usual 83% of the pass plays in Week 13, but he just earned a season-low 10.3% of the targets. Godwin did score a rushing TD, but he’s now been held under 60 yards receiving in 9-of-11 full games with Mike Evans.
Baker Mayfield – As always, he’s a low ceiling streamer for 1-QB leagues and a much better play in 2-QB/SuperFlex formats. Mayfield has finished as a top-12 scoring QB in just 4-of-12 starts.
Desmond Ridder – After it seemed like he could offer a little streaming upside midseason, Ridder has finished as the QB32, QB23, QB23, and QB22 in his last four starts. Womp womp.
Cade Otton
Sleepers
Kyle Pitts – He’s scored fewer than 10 FP in 17-of-21 games over the last two combined seasons. Brutal. He’s coming off of season-best usage by target share (29%) but I think that was likely due in part to Drake London being locked down vs. Jets. We’ve noted all season that Pitts is a part-time player, but that did change last week, too. Pitts ran a route on 87% of the Falcons pass plays, and that was his highest figure since Week 3. I realize you’re sick of Pitts (I am too), but this weak slate pushes Pitts into the back-end TE1 conversation. At least we have an uptick in usage to hang our hats on. Tampa Bay is allowing the 2nd-most yards per game to slot receivers (94.9). Pitts runs 59% of his routes lined up in the slot.
Colts at Bengals
Must Start
Ja’Marr Chase – He made the absolute most of a perfect matchup last week, and now gets another fantastic draw. The Colts barely blitz, and they play zone coverage at the league’s highest rate (84%). Only Keenan Allen (30.2%) has a higher target share vs. zone than Chase (29%). The Colts are allowing the 7th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+3.9) to opposing outside wide receivers.
Zack Moss – Despite getting insane bell-cow usage, Moss only managed 57 scoreless scrimmage yards on 21 touches last week. He played on 94% of the snaps, though. Anyone would sign up for that type of usage again, and we’re about to get it. This is a home run spot. The Bengals are allowing 4.68 YPC (2nd-most) and a league-high 2.08 yards before first contact per carry. They’ve allowed at least one TD to opposing running backs in 10-of-12 games. Bengals DT DJ Reader (back) did not practice on Friday.
Michael Pittman – He’s seen at least 22% of the Colts' targets in eight starts with Gardner Minshew. And, over his last five outings, Pittman has received 27%, 31%, 39%, 32%, and 38% of the targets. That type of volume is rare to come by. Pittman just continues to cash in, too. He’s now recorded at least eight receptions in 6-of-8 games with Minshew.
Start ‘Em
Joe Mixon – Mixon has scored 15 or more FP (Half-PPR) just four times all season, but all of those performances have come in the last 6 games. Mixon cashed in two goal-line plunges last week as the Bengals moved the ball consistently. The rookie Chase Brown mixed in more last week, but Mixon still played on his usual 71% of the snaps.
The Colts are allowing 142.3 scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs (4th-most). DT Grover Stewart (suspension) will return this week, and that is massive for the Colts run defense. Stewart and DeForest Buckner are great run stuffers. Indianapolis allowed just 3.59 YPC in Weeks 1-6 when Stewart was active, but that worsened to 4.60 YPC allowed in Weeks 7-13 during his suspension.
FLEX Plays
Josh Downs – The bottom fell out last week (3/14 receiving), with Minshew funneling targets to Pittman non-stop. Across six full starts with Minshew – where he did not leave early due to a knee injury – Downs has 33/332/2 receiving (on 53 targets). He has a stellar matchup against a Bengals secondary that is allowing the 3rd-most yards per game to slot wideouts (94.1).
Sit ‘Em
Jake Browning – His performance last week – 32-of-37 passing for 354 yards (1 TD) – was one of the most impressive of the season. It’s a tiny sample (94 dropbacks), but Browning’s +5.8 completion rate above expected looks strong so far. He’s delivered a catchable ball on 85.9% of his throws, and that’s all we need to keep Ja’Marr Chase rolling. The only downside is that he’s only attempted four deep passes (20+ air yards), so he’s largely living off of extremely shallow targets. That 76-yard bomb to Chase last week is his lone completion on a deep ball. Browning’s 5.6-yard average depth of throw (78 attempts) ranks dead last out of 44 QBs – even lower than Tim Boyle (6.0-aDOT on 77 attempts).
Tee Higgins – As expected, Higgins was limited last week in his return from a three game absence (hamstring). He ran a route on just 64% of the pass plays. Injuries have absolutely ruined his campaign. Brutal. Higgins’ ceiling is dramatically lower without any downfield passing in this offense (yet), with Browning under center. This is a great matchup, but he’s a low-floor WR4/FLEX option.
Tyler Boyd
Alec Pierce
Kylen Granson
Tanner Hudson
Sleepers
Gardner Minshew – In a similar vein to Jameis Winston back in the day, we can go back to Minshew as a high-variance streamer. Just understand that he’s going to make a few throws that will make you question reality. Minshew is averaging 37.5 pass attempts per start, which trails only Sam Howell (39.1 A/G) for the league-high. We’re jamming quarterbacks into lineups against the Bengals. Over the last five weeks, Cincinnati has allowed a league-high 295.4 passing yards per game.
Texans at Jets
Start ‘Em
C.J. Stroud – Even in a game where Tank Dell (leg) left early and he did not have Dalton Schultz (hamstring), Stroud ripped the Broncos for 274 yards on just 27 attempts (10.1 YPA). Stroud’s day for fantasy should have been even better had Nico Collins not dropped a TD and had he not missed a wide-open John Metchie for a potential long splash play, too. The Jets are a great secondary, but they’re not entirely impenetrable. New York has allowed four different QBs to score 18 or more FP against them (Prescott, Hurts, Wilson, and Allen). Stroud is established as a QB1 in the same vein as those four QBs. This is his second straight tough matchup, but I have no problem going back to Stroud yet again as a back-end QB1.
There are eight QBs I’d play ahead of him this week – Hurts, Prescott, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Fields, Tagovailoa, and Purdy.
Nico Collins – Obviously, this matchup is less than ideal. The Jets are the toughest secondary in the league against perimeter receivers, as Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed do not give an inch. New York is allowing a league-low 66.1 yards per game to boundary wideouts. After unfortunately losing Tank Dell (leg) for the season, Stroud will now have to lean heavily on Nico Collins for the rest of the way. In Collins’ two games without Dell, he has posted 4/80 receiving (on 6 targets), and he just dropped 9/191/1 (on 12 targets) on the Broncos. Collins is a borderline WR1 over the final month of the fantasy season, but projects as a WR2 in this spot.
FLEX Plays
Garrett Wilson – So, at least Zach Wilson is back. Yay? After flopping out Tim Boyle, we’re back to where we began here. Trevor Siemian will back up Wilson. At the bare minimum, Wilson at least knows how to feed his guy. In 10 starts with Zach Wilson under center, Garrett Wilson averaged 10.3 targets per contest (WR6), 5.7 receptions, and 65.1 yards per game. That sounds like a dream after the last two weeks. Wilson turned his 17 targets into 94 yards with Tim Boyle in Weeks 12-13, but a garbage-time TD against Miami bailed him out for fantasy.
The Jets did bring back up Allen Lazard last week, and that allowed Wilson to move into the slot on 43% of his routes (2nd-highest rate of his season). Hopefully, the Jets are wise enough to run that back. Just let Lazard take up space against Derek Stingley. Houston is allowing the 4th-most yards per game to slot wide receivers (92.2).
Breece Hall – Things have somehow gone from bad to worse for Hall and the Jets offense. Their last five performances are an embarrassment, and the only reason OC Nathaniel Hackett still has a job is because he’s Aaron Rodgers’ friend. This offense has produced two (2!!) touchdowns across 58 possessions in their last five games. Breece Hall has gotten caught up in the league’s most inept offense, and he’s just surviving on dump-off passes. Hall is averaging 4.9 receptions per game in his eight starts this season. His Week 5 performance vs. Denver (22/177/1 rushing) feels like it was forever ago. Hall has 83/198/1 rushing (2.39 YPC) since then. Houston is allowing the 3rd-fewest yards per carry (3.37).
Hall is dealing with an ankle injury and was limited in practice on Friday. Dalvin Cook could be more involved this week with Hall at less than 100%.
Sit ‘Em
Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce – Welp. This backfield turned into a full-blown committee. I was wrong in thinking that Singletary would hold off Pierce. This coaching staff wants to take one last look at Dameon Pierce after he nearly doubled up Singletary in carries (15 to 8) last week. Singletary still marginally out-snapped Pierce because of his involvement in the passing game, but that doesn’t really matter here. CJ Stroud isn’t checking it down. Singletary has seen two or fewer targets in 11-of-12 games.
Noah Brown – You’re stashing him for the rest of the season, but I hope that you don’t have to play Brown up against the Jets' stout perimeter coverage. Robert Woods (12 routes, no targets) and John Metchie (10 routes, 3 targets) split work after Tank Dell’s injury last week.
John Metchie – Stash just to see if he pops with Dell out.
Zach Wilson – Fire up Texans D/ST.
Tyler Conklin
Sleepers
Brevin Jordan – He’ll get another start with Dalton Schultz (hamstring) out. Last week, Jordan ran 22 routes and the next closest Texans TE was Eric Saubert (3). After Nico Collins (55%), Jordan was second on the team in first read target share (20%). Keep chasing points from C.J. Stroud. Once again, Jordan is a top streamer on the slate.
Seahawks at 49ers (4:05pm ET)
Must Start
Christian McCaffrey – Went for 19/114/2 rushing vs. Seattle in Week 12. The Seahawks run defense has not been nearly as good as of late, and DL Leonard Williams and LB Jordyn Brooks are both dealing with injuries. Across their last six games, the Seahawks have allowed 147/724/8 rushing (4.92 YPC) and 30/287/2 (on 39 targets) through the air to RBs. Elijah Mitchell (knee) did not practice on Wednesday.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk – In the 13 games that this duo has played with Brock Purdy dating back to last year, Deebo leads the 49ers in targets (73) by a hair over Aiyuk (72). Deebo has provided a safe floor with top-25 finishes or better in 6-of-8 games not shortened by injuries and we were all reminded of how high his ceiling remains last week.
Aiyuk has settled in as a fantastic WR2 in his own right, but he lacks the TD upside that Deebo possesses. He’s finished as a top-36 scoring WR – basically, a FLEX play or better – in 10-of-11 games this season.
Just like we noted a few weeks ago when these two teams met – this matchup favors Deebo. Seattle runs zone coverage 83.8% of the time, and Samuel leads the 49ers in target share (24%) and yards per route run (3.02) over Aiyuk (21% TS | 2.70 YPRR) against zone.
George Kittle – He came up small with just 3/19 receiving (on 5 targets) vs. Seattle two weeks ago, but there is no way you’re taking him out of lineups. In seven games together with Aiyuk and Samuel active, Kittle has 20% of the targets and tallied 21/285/3 receiving vs. zone coverages. Aiyuk has 20/348/2 and Deebo has 27/384/1 receiving against zone looks. This four-headed monster is impossible to defend.
Start ‘Em
Brock Purdy – Dating back to last year, Purdy has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 13-of-17 starts (76%). He’s no longer just a low-ceiling QB1, either. Purdy has notched top-10 scoring weeks in four of his last 5 games, and that one down game was against Seattle on Thanksgiving. It did not help that the Seahawks offense was awful, and Purdy only needed to attempt 10 passes in the second half of that game. Hopefully, Seattle can keep this game a little bit closer.
D.K. Metcalf – Well, there was the game we all wanted much earlier in the season. Metcalf erupted for 6/134/3 last week, and I can’t imagine you’re going to move him out of your WR2/FLEX spot now. Once again, this matchup favors Metcalf here. The 49ers play Cover-4 at the 2nd-highest rate, and Metcalf leads the Seahawks with a 30.6% first read target share and a strong 3.24 yards per route run against Cover-4 looks. Metcalf has at least eight targets in 6 of his last 7 games.
Seahawks backfield
Both Ken Walker (oblique) and Zach Charbonnet (knee) are likely going to play in Week 14. They both practiced in full on Friday.
Charbonnet tallied 19/60/1 rushing and added a 39-yard catch vs. Dallas last week, but he bruised his knee on the turf late in the game.
The 49ers run defense has been absolutely impenetrable since they acquired Chase Young. They are totally erasing opposing run games and forcing offenses to be one dimensional. That’s a problem when their pass rush is dominant, too.
Over their last four games, the 49ers have allowed 3.19 YPC (3rd-fewest) and just 51 rushing yards per contest (2nd-fewest). Ideally, you’re avoiding this backfield if you can.
Sit ‘Em
Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba – With Metcalf dominating targets and JSN continuing to mix in more, Lockett has not seen more than 25% of the targets in a single game all season. Lockett has finished outside of the top-40 scoring wide receivers in 7-of-12 games this year. In fact, Smith-Njigba just notched a season-high 11 targets (7/62 receiving). The 49ers are allowing just 1.44 yards per route run to slot receivers (2nd-fewest).
Geno Smith – Thanks to a massive game by D.K. Metcalf last week, Geno Smith is coming off his best game of the season for fantasy. He’s only a consideration for 2-QB leagues this week, though. San Francisco’s pass rush has returned to dominance since they acquired Chase Young. Since Week 10, the 49ers have pressured quarterbacks on 42.8% of dropbacks (3rd-highest rate in this span). That figure is even more impressive when you consider that this defense does not blitz (10.6% rate | lowest) and they’re just getting after QBs with Nick Bosa and Young. Geno took six sacks (48 yards lost) in Week 12. Smith is dealing with a groin injury sustained in practice, and he is questionable.
Vikings at Raiders (4:05pm ET)
Must Start
Justin Jefferson – After missing seven games (eight weeks in total) with a hamstring injury, Jefferson returned to full practice on Wednesday. He will be full-go in Week 14. If you made it this far without Jefferson – congratulations! He and Josh Dobbs should’ve had plenty of practice time to get their connection dialed in, but there is still obviously some downside here. In four starts with the Vikings, Dobbs has been charted as off-target on 22.2% of his throws, thanks to a 69.4% catchable throw rate. By comparison, Kirk Cousins threw a catchable pass on 80% of his attempts (17.4% were off target).
TJ Hockenson – Even with Jefferson back, Hockenson is still the TE2 on this slate. His overall volume will drop, but just as a reminder, Dobbs loves peppering his tight ends. Dobbs has targeted his TEs on a whopping 33.2% of his pass attempts this season (131-of-394).
Start ‘Em
Josh Jacobs – In four games under interim HC Antonio Pierce, the Raiders offense has shifted extremely run-heavy. Las Vegas has gone +5.5% more run-heavy than expected since Week 9 – and that’s the 3rd-highest rate in this span. Jacobs has responded with 87/363/3 rushing, and that’s easily the best four-game stretch of his season. You’re locking in Jacobs as a volume-based RB1 and rolling with the outcome.
Davante Adams – In five games with Aidan O’Connell under center, Adams has posted 8/75 receiving (vs. Chargers), 4/34 (vs. Giants), 6/86 (vs. Jets), 7/83/1 (vs. Dolphins), and 5/73 (vs. Chiefs). At the very least, Adams is getting funneled the ball with 50%, 32%, 50%, 35%, and 28% shares of the first read targets.
No defense blitzes more than the Vikings (46.6% of opponents dropbacks). According to our Data Suite, Adams leads the team in target share (41%!) and air yard share (69.5%!!) when Aidan O’Connell is blitzed. On 38 routes, Adams has 8/87 receiving (13 targets | 2.29 YPRR) vs. blitzes with O’Connell.
Josh Dobbs – Yes, he struggled badly with 4 INTs in his last time out against a tough Bears secondary. Dobbs will have a shorter leash now with Nick Mullens back off of IR. Still, there is more than enough upside here. Dobbs has 25/142/3 rushing in four games with the Vikings, and he’s added at least 20 yards or a TD with his legs in 9-of-12 starts. That alone keeps him on the streaming radar. Getting Justin Jefferson back in the fold just elevates him.
FLEX Plays
Alexander Mattison – We’ll see if there are any changes in this backfield as the Vikings come out of their bye. In their last three games, Mattison (56%) led Ty Chandler (36%) in snap rate. However, these two were near even by expected fantasy points with Mattison at 29.3 XFP and Chandler at 31.9. The big gap in snaps was their playing time in the red zone. Mattison out-snapped Chandler by an 18 to 5 margin inside-the-20 and got seven carries (Chandler – 2). With the red-zone work in his favor, Mattison is in play as a back-end RB2/FLEX in this matchup. Vegas is allowing 141.1 scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs (6th-most). Mattison has weekly finishes of RB44, RB24, and RB36 over his last 3 outings just to keep expectations in check.
Sit ‘Em
Jakobi Meyers – In five games with O’Connell, he’s tallied 2/33, 2/38, 2/21, 4/49, and 6/79/1 receiving. Adams dominating targets against blitz looks does not inspire much confidence. Meyers is a low-floor WR3/FLEX.
Jordan Addison – He’s turned his 30 targets into 18/204/0 receiving with Dobbs. Addison has registered scoring weeks of WR35, WR33, WR47, and WR48 as a result. He’s now the clear #3 behind Jefferson and Hockenson.
Aidan O’Connell
Michael Mayer – He’s still just a part-time player. Over the Raiders' last four games, he ran a route on just 56% of the pass plays. Hopefully, that ticks up in their final 5 games.
Broncos at Chargers (4:25pm ET)
Must Start
Keenan Allen
Start ‘Em
Justin Herbert – He has finished as the QB8 or better by weekly scoring in 7-of-12 games, and his five “down” performances predictably came against tougher defenses (vs. Dallas, at Kansas City, at NY Jets, vs. Baltimore, at New England). Denver has completely turned their season around. The Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a modest 225.8 yards per game (6.9 YPA) with a 7:8 TD-to-INT ratio across their last eight games since getting destroyed by Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields in Weeks 3-4. Herbert is a back-end QB1 here.
Austin Ekeler – His season went from bad to worse last week. The Chargers offense is broken right now, and Ekeler’s high ankle injury from earlier in the season is clearly still affecting him. Ekeler ranks a lowly 39th-of-42 RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.12), and just to compound matters, he’s seeing awful blocking. His offensive line is opening up a league-low 0.78 yards before contact per carry. Hopefully, we get one more big scoring game from Ekeler in this premier matchup against Denver (168.2 scrimmage yards allowed per game to RBs – most).
Courtland Sutton – He’s scored a TD or gone over 60 yards in 11-of-12 games this season with his lone game without either milestone predictably coming against the Jets (1/13 receiving in Week 5). Sutton is a strong WR2 against a Chargers secondary that is allowing the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG (+6.5) to opposing outside receivers.
FLEX Plays
Javonte Williams – He’s still searching for his first rushing TD of the year. Williams cashed in receiving touchdowns in back-to-back games in Week 8 and 10, but he has since scored as fantasy’s RB32, RB30, and RB24. Williams finally catches a decent matchup after a rough stretch for four straight games. The Chargers are allowing 4.14 YPC (8th-most) and a 49.8% success rate on those carries (11th-highest). Passing down RB Samaje Perine was a late addition to the injury report with a knee injury and he is questionable.
Sit ‘Em
Jerry Jeudy – Has not finished higher than WR26 in Half-PPR leagues in 11 games this season.
Quentin Johnston
Sleepers
Russell Wilson – Once again, Wilson is in play as a floor-based streamer. He’s finished as a top-12 scoring QB in 7-of-12 starts this season after notching four such performances last year. He’s obviously not the great scrambler that he once was, but Wilson has quietly handled eight or more carries in 4 of his last 5 outings. He’s added 20 or more yards rushing in 8-of-12 games.
The Chargers have allowed 15 or more FP to 8-of-12 quarterbacks that they’ve faced, and the only four QBs that failed to reach that mark were Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, and Bailey Zappe.
Josh Palmer – His practice window to return off of I.R. (knee) was opened this week. Across eight starts without Mike Williams since last season, Palmer is averaging 4.8 receptions and 70 yards (on 7.8 targets) per game. He does not have a TD in any of those games, though.
Update: Palmer is out again this week.
Gerald Everett – Gets bumped onto the streaming radar with this being such a great matchup. Denver is allowing the 2nd-most receptions (6.2) and receiving yards (71) on a per game basis to tight ends. Just understand that Everett is a part-time player, and that makes his floor for fantasy very low. Everett has not run a route on more than 60% of the pass plays in a single game this season. He has come to life with 8/87/1 receiving (on 9 targets) over the last two weeks because Herbert is getting nothing out of his receivers beyond Keenan Allen.
Bills at Chiefs (4:25pm ET)
This is the sixth meeting between Allen vs. Mahomes. In those five previous games, their matchups combined for 43, 58, 62, 44, and 78 total points scored (57 points on average).
Must Start
Josh Allen – Despite all of the noise and mediocre record, Allen is on track to record his third straight season as the highest-scoring QB in fantasy. Coming out of the bye, Allen has finished as a top-6 scoring QB by weekly output in 8-of-12 games. The Chiefs were a secondary to be afraid of until recently. Jordan Love tossed for 267 yards and 3 TDs last week, and Aidan O’Connell was solid against the Chiefs in Week 12 with a nice 69.6% completion rate (7.5 YPA, 1 TD, 0 turnovers, 1 sack).
Stefon Diggs – No defense plays more two-high safety coverage than the Chiefs (66.9%). In six games since Dalton Kincaid emerged as a starter, Diggs has garnered 32.2% of the first read targets, and he averages 1.88 YPRR against two-high safety coverages.
This compares to a 37% first read share (2.37 YPRR) for Diggs when he faced two-high safeties in Weeks 1-6 before they changed up their offense to more 3-WR sets.
In totality, Kincaid has been matching Diggs by targets per route run (0.24) since Week 7.
Travis Kelce – He’s absolutely smoked the Bills for 40 receptions, 444 yards, and 6 TDs (on 51 targets) in five meetings with Mahomes.
Start ‘Em
Patrick Mahomes – Over his last five outings, Mahomes has scored as fantasy’s QB29, QB11, QB15, QB9, and QB16 by weekly scoring. The good news is that Buffalo has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (17.9) since losing CB Tre White in Week 4 and LB Matt Milano in Week 5 to injuries.
James Cook – In two games called by new OC Joe Brady (in Weeks 11-12), the Bills actually leaned slightly run-heavy with a -0.9% pass rate under expectation. As a result, Cook rushed for 17/73 (vs. Jets) and 16/43 (vs. Eagles) in their two contests before the bye. He also added 9/86/1 receiving (on 11 targets) in those two games. Excitingly, Cook also out-snapped Latavius Murray by a 6 to 1 margin inside-the-10.
Expected fantasy points captures this role change perfectly. Cook averaged 17.4 XFP/G in Weeks 11-12 after he was at 10.7 XFP/G in Weeks 1-10. That’s the difference between being the RB6 (in terms of workload value) and the RB34. Wow.
This all sets up Cook as a strong RB2 start up against a Chiefs run defense that is allowing 4.45 YPC (5th-most) and a 51.5% success rate (3rd-highest) on those carries.
Dalton Kincaid – Since he’s playing so well, I can’t imagine that the Bills just go back to their old offense. There is a new play-caller now, but most importantly, Kincaid is too good to be a part of a timeshare. Since Week 7, his connection with Josh Allen has been near perfect (39-of-45 for 356 yards and 2 TDs). This is a tougher matchup. The Chiefs are giving up the 5th-fewest yards per game to tight ends (36.9). TE Dawson Knox (wrist) practiced this week, and he will be active on Sunday.
Rashee Rice – His route share (involvement on pass plays) has risen in four straight games (47% > 52% > 63% > 67%). In three games since the bye in Week 10, Rice has turned his 24 targets into 20/213/1 receiving. In fact, Rice is leading the team in targets per route run (0.32) over Kelce (0.21) in Weeks 11-13. He’s an upside WR2/FLEX in this potential shootout.
FLEX Plays
Gabe Davis – Since Dalton Kincaid’s emergence, Davis has just 5 receptions for 113 yards (0 TD) on 14 targets (13.6% share) vs. two-high safety coverages since Week 7. The potential shootout environment and back-and-forth scoring keeps Davis in play as a home run swing WR3/FLEX play.
Chiefs backfield
Isaiah Pacheco (shoulder) is out after he did not practice all week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will take the early-down work, and Jerick McKinnon will handle his usual passing down and red-zone role. The Bills have been really solid against the run as of late and are allowing just 70.3 rushing yards per game since Week 7. At least they’re allowing 5.7 receptions per game (4th-most) to running backs.
My lean is that CEH projects better overall if you’re chasing a Chiefs RB for a FLEX spot. McKinnon has missed the last two weeks with a groin injury, and he might be limited.
Sit ‘Em
Khalil Shakir – It’ll be interesting to see if the Bills go back to their 2-TE offense with Dawson Knox (wrist) back. Or, do they stick with their 3-WR group and Kincaid as the full-time starter?
Eagles at Cowboys (SNF)
Must Start
Jalen Hurts – After playing in a long OT battle against Buffalo in Week 12, Philadelphia was in a rough spot last week. San Francisco had a three-day rest advantage, and the Eagles' defense has been bleeding points all season. The Cowboys have a similar advantage here. Jalen Hurts battled until the end last week and re-entered the game in the second half after being checked for a concussion. Naturally, he ended with 23.9 FP thanks to The Push (again).
Hurts is struggling as a passer relative to his standards, and he’s clearly not 100% healthy. Over the last three weeks, he’s completed just 59% of his passes for 6.6 YPA and 216 passing yards per game. This is after he was on a roll in Weeks 2-9, completing 69% of his passes for 8.0 YPA and 272 YPG. He’s dealt with knee swelling throughout November-December but at least it has not mattered for fantasy outcomes. Dating back to last season, Hurts has finished as a top-12 quarterback in an unbelievable 23-of-26 starts (88.5%).
AJ Brown – Against single-high safety looks, Brown is averaging 3.90 yards per route run (4th-best among WRs), and he’s garnered a whopping 34% of the targets. His target share dips to 24% with a 2.04 YPRR (25th-of-77) vs. two-high safety looks.
Only the Browns (72%) play more single-high safety coverage than the Cowboys (66.1%).
We were all over this trend in Week 9 when these two teams met and Brown had 7/66/1 receiving (9 targets | 39% share). Brown did most of his damage (5/38/1) against single-high coverages vs. the Cowboys. In that meeting, Dallas did play a little more two-high safety coverage – but they still rolled out single-high on 53.1% of Jalen Hurts’ dropbacks.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb – This duo is unstoppable, and Dak is delivering dot after dot. Since they were embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 5, Prescott has responded with MVP-level play. He has a stellar 21:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 310.4 passing yards per game, and 8.7 YPA across his last seven games. Dak is on an absolute heater for fantasy with six top-5 finishes in this span. You simply can not guard CeeDee Lamb. He has absolutely erupted alongside Dak, and this duo is just going to continue to elevate each other. Since Week 6, Prescott and Lamb have connected on 63-of-86 targets for 824 yards (116.6 per game) and 6 TDs.
No defense is allowing more schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing quarterbacks (+5.5) and wide receivers (+11.5) than the Eagles. In Week 9, Dak threw for 374 yards (3 TDs, 0 INT, 5 sacks) while Lamb had a casual 11 receptions for 191 yards.
Start ‘Em
Tony Pollard – We’re back to a rougher matchup after he cruised in three straight easy draws (vs. Carolina, Washington, and Seattle). Pollard is the RB19 by fantasy points per game (12.4). At worst, Pollard is a volume-based RB2 with strong goal-line TD chances. Prescott is just moving the ball at will. Only Miami (30) and San Francisco (28.5) have a higher implied point total than Dallas (27.5).
Jake Ferguson – Yet again, Ferguson makes sense as a TE1 play this week if you’ve been rolling him out. The Eagles have steadily given up production to tight ends, but just not to the same level that they have to wideouts. LB Shaq Leonard will try to fix this. Ferguson went for 7/91/1 (on 10 targets) in Week 9 in this meeting. The Eagles are allowing 7.7 yards per target to tight ends (tied for 8th-most).
Dallas Goedert – Returns to the lineup as an upside TE1 in a likely shootout with Dallas. Goedert earned seven or more targets in 5 of his previous 6 games before his arm injury.
FLEX Plays
DeVonta Smith – With Goedert back, I’m shifting Smith back down a little bit. Over the last two seasons, Smith is averaging 7.3 targets, 62.3 yards, and 11.6 fantasy points per game when Goedert is available (21 games).
That spikes to 8.8 targets, 90.1 yards, and 15.2 FPG when the tight end is out (8 contests). Smith had 3/51/1 receiving (3 targets) in Week 9 vs. Dallas (with Goedert).
D’Andre Swift – Philadelphia got down quickly in the second half and could not get their ground game going against San Francisco’s dominant front seven last week. Swift ended with just 20 scrimmage yards, and his awful day was made worse after he took a huge shot to close the game in garbage time. He’s not listed on the injury report for Week 13. His workload has slowed down some with 15, 15, and 8 touches over his last three outings. This is after he handled at least 17 touches in eight straight games from Weeks 2-9.
Sit ‘Em
Michael Gallup
Sleepers
Brandin Cooks – His season has come to life with 20/332/3 (on 23 targets) over the last four weeks. Cooks is absolutely back in play as a WR3/FLEX as we continue to chase points with Dallas.
Titans at Dolphins (MNF)
Must Start
Tyreek Hill – He gets another unbelievable draw here. The Titans are allowing 136.6 yards per game to opposing outside receivers (3rd-most). For reference, the Commanders are giving up the most YPG (140.9).
De’Von Achane – His midseason knee injury did not hurt his momentum. Achane showed no signs of lingering pain and handled a strong 61% of the snaps last week. Raheem Mostert delivered for fantasy (12 touches, 51 yards, 1 TD), however, Achane has taken over this backfield. In their four games together, Achane has handled 54 carries and 13 targets (15.1 expected fantasy points per game) while Mostert has 41 carries and 15 targets (13.8 XFP/G). Most importantly, Achane is the lead back in the red-zone. He’s handled 55% of the snaps inside-the-20 compared to Mostert at 37%.
Start ‘Em
Tua Tagovailoa – Dating back to last season, Tua has finished as a top-15 scoring QB in 16-of-24 full starts (66.7%) not affected by injury. This matchup isn’t as easy as last week (vs. Commanders), but Tua should have no problem dicing the Titans. Their secondary is allowing the 6th-highest YPA (7.65) and 5th-highest completion rate over expected (+3.6%). Like usual, Miami won’t have a problem keeping him clean. Tua has taken just 17 sacks in 12 games. The Titans front seven is forcing a lowly 31.8% pressure rate (6th-lowest), and stud DT Jeffery Simmons (knee) will miss this game.
Raheem Mostert – In the four games that Achane has been available to share the backfield, Mostert has finished as fantasy’s RB2, RB37, RB10, and RB16 by weekly scoring. Even with the rookie emerging in front of him, Mostert remains one of the best RB2’s. The Dolphins are tied with the 49ers for the highest implied total (29.8) on the slate.
DeAndre Hopkins – Some pretty big splits have developed for Hopkins based on game script. It’s just the inverse of Derrick Henry. This season, Hopkins is averaging 9.2 targets per game in losses but that falls to just 5.5 T/G when the Titans win. Hopkins has not seen more than six targets in any of the Titans 4 victories. We’ll need all of the volume we can get here. Since Jalen Ramsey returned from a knee injury, the Dolphins have held opposing outside WRs to -2.1 schedule adjusted FPG (11th-fewest). Nuk is a volume-based WR2.
Derrick Henry – Henry has absolutely smashed in two prime matchups that we earmarked for production with 39/178/4 rushing vs. Panthers and Colts. This spot is the polar opposite. As always, Henry is a low floor RB2 when the Titans are not favored to win (they’re +13 underdogs this week). Over the last three seasons, Henry averages 22.5 Half-PPR points per game in wins but that dips to 13.9 FPG in losses.
FLEX Plays
Jaylen Waddle – There is nothing about this matchup that should move you off Waddle as a fine WR2/FLEX. With that said, we’re just continuing to see Tyreek Hill run free every single week while Waddle is left in a secondary role. He is getting consistent volume with eight or more targets in 6 of his last 8 games, but it’s just so hard for Waddle to go off alongside Hill. Over the last three weeks, Hill has finished as fantasy’s WR2, WR2, and WR3 by scoring output while Waddle (WR37, WR16, and WR36) is well behind. In fact, Waddle has now finished outside of the top-25 scoring WRs in 7-of-11 games this season.
Sit ‘Em
Will Levis
Tyjae Spears
Sleepers
Chig Okonkwo – It only took the Titans 11 weeks to start throwing the football vertically down the field to Okonkwo. Over the last two weeks, he’s turned his 10 targets into 7/107 receiving. He’s on the board as a desperation streamer alongside Gerald Everett – but I prefer Brevin Jordan. This week, I prefer Pitts > Jordan > Everett > Okonkwo as the TE streamers.
Packers at Giants (MNF)
Start ‘Em
Jordan Love – It certainly hasn’t always been pretty, but Love has shown a solid floor for fantasy all season with top-15 finishes among QBs in 10-of-12 starts. After dicing the Chiefs last week, Love has more than earned QB1 consideration this week. The Giants will desperately need some of their blitz packages to work. Over the last eight weeks, New York has blitzed the opposing QB on 43% of their dropbacks (2nd-highest). However, the Giants are only forcing pressure just 24% of the time when they do not blitz (5th-lowest rate).
Saquon Barkley – You’re rolling him out as a volume-based RB1 and letting the chips fall where they may. At the very least, this is a good matchup. The Packers are allowing 113.8 rushing yards per game (8th-most).
FLEX Plays
Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed – Unfortunately, Christian Watson suffered yet another hamstring injury last week and he is out for Week 14. Watson didn’t practice all week.
Of course, this comes right after Love and Watson started to heat up with 12/165/3 receiving (on 16 targets) vs. Lions and Chiefs.
In Weeks 1-4 when Watson was out/limited by his first hamstring injury of the season, Romeo Doubs led the Packers in target share (24%) and air yards (30%). Standout rookie Jayden Reed (18% TS | 25% AY) was right behind him.
Reed projects as an upside WR3 while Doubs is back in play, too. This matchup is in favor of Reed, though. The Giants are allowing the 5th-most schedule adjusted FPG (+2.8) to slot receivers.
Packers backfield
Aaron Jones (knee) has gotten in two limited practices this week. AJ Dillon has handled almost all of the early-down carries and red-zone work with Jones out of the lineup. Naturally, Dillon has only scored 9.6 and 9.2 FP in Weeks 12-13.
Dillon has to score a TD to have any chance for a good fantasy outing.
If Jones suits up, he’s a completely boom-or-bust FLEX. There is no chance he’ll be trusted with a big role after dealing with a hamstring strain earlier in the season and along with this current knee issue.
Sit ‘Em
Jalin Hyatt – Broke out for 5/109 receiving on 6 targets with 72% (!!) of the air yards in Week 12 vs. Patriots before the bye.
Tommy DeVito
Daniel Bellinger – As the Giants come out of their bye, Darren Waller (hamstring) will miss another game. Waller is aiming to return in Week 15. Bellinger has 9/123 receiving (10 targets) scattered across four starts.
Tucker Kraft – He has 2/15/1 receiving (2 targets) and 3/37 (6 targets) in two starts without Luke Musgrave (kidney — IR).
Best and Worst Games
Rankings derived from my Pace/Plays/Passing game model.
