2023 Week 14 DFS Early Look

Week 13 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 14 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 14 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 14 DFS.

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (VS. DET)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB6) | FanDuel: $7,900 (QB5)

Fields has played in five games since Week 4 – two of those contests were against Minnesota (9.3 DraftKings FPG), but Fields managed 30.0 DraftKings FPG over his last three games against non-Minnesota teams. That included a 24.2-point performance against Detroit, who has struggled massively against hyper-mobile QBs over the last two seasons…

In a six-game sample, Mobile QBs against the Lions are averaging 30.4 DraftKings FPG over the last two seasons, which is +1.0 DraftKings FPG better than the greatest fantasy QB season of all-time (2019 Lamar Jackson). The matchup arguably couldn’t be better for Fields, whom I’d expect to be chalk at just $6,800 on DraftKings.

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $5,500 (QB15) | FanDuel: $6,600 (QB17)

Derek Carr just suffered his second concussion in a month, meaning it’s likely we get our first Jameis start of the season in Week 14. Winston has averaged 17.3 DraftKings FPG in his 10 career starts with New Orleans, which would rank 12th-best among slate-eligible QBs this season – presenting clear value relative to his price tag on both sites. And we know he has great upside relative to his price; Winston has scored over 26.0 DraftKings points in 31% of his starts since 2019.

The matchup is pretty rough, as Carolina ranks as the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing passers (-3.3 FPG). But we know that a tough matchup – or the prospect of losing some red zone snaps to Taysom Hill – won’t slow Winston’s aggressiveness, and that’s what makes him an enticing DFS tournament play (assuming low ownership, of course).

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams (@ BAL)

DraftKings: $7,300 (RB4) | FanDuel: $8,800 (RB3)

Williams leads all RBs in snap share (82%), ranks only behind Christian McCaffrey in route share (68%), and ranks top-3 in both XFP/G (18.2) and DraftKings FPG (22.0). Roughly speaking, Williams is ~83% of vintage Todd Gurley by production and ~91% of vintage Gurley by usage.

And why wouldn’t we want to play an uber-bell cow at just $7,300 in a neutral matchup? You could argue the spread (BAL -7.0) is a concern, but Williams’ pass-catching role has been incredible in negative gamescript this season – averaging roughly as many targets in losses (6.3) as Brandon Aiyuk (6.5) has per game. Williams is just too cheap given this role, and that should make him an anchor in a variety of lineup builds this week.

Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB16) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB14)

In Week 13, Moss managed a 94% snap share (2nd among Week 13 RBs), 51% route share (11th), and 18.4 XFP (10th). Sure, he only finished with 7.7 fantasy points, but 8 opportunities inside the 10 and a 94% snap share is legitimately rare usage – there have only been four instances of a player earning 7 or more opportunities inside the 10 this season, and there have only nine instances of an RB seeing a snap share of 94% or higher.

Moss is seeing truly elite bell cow usage, and that demands a low-end RB1 price tag at worst, especially this week. The Colts are 2.5-point favorites, which should usher in positive gamescript, and the Bengals are allowing the 2nd-highest YPC (5.0) and the 2nd-most rushing YPG (139.6) this season. Moss was the chalkiest player of the DFS season in Week 13, and I’d expect him to be popular yet again in Week 14.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (VS. CAR)

DraftKings: $7,000 (WR12) | FanDuel: $7,600 (WR11)

It’s Jameis time. The last time Winston saw extended action (Week 10), Chris Olave earned 14.9 XFP and 7.5 fantasy points in a single quarter. I won’t bother extrapolating those numbers, but it should be abundantly obvious that Winston – who is one of the most aggressive QBs in NFL history – is worth a massive boost for the current league leader in air yards in Olave.

Carolina is a tough matchup, but they are far tougher against opposing slots and TEs than outside WRs, which should help funnel some volume to Olave. And when has Jameis Winston ever cared about how tight the coverage is on the guy he wants to throw to?

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (VS. BUF)

DraftKings: $5,400 (WR30) | FanDuel: $6,300 (WR29)

Kansas City has been stubborn with Rice’s playing time all season, but things are finally looking up in that arena – Rice has exceeded a 60% route share for the first time this year in Week 12, and then he did it again in Week 13 (67%). Keep in mind that Rice is earning targets at the same rate on a per route basis as Travis Kelce, CeeDee Lamb, and AJ Brown. The only real obstacle between Rice and fantasy greatness is playing time.

Now that Rice is finally close to being a full-time player, his usage is quite appealing relative to his salary. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged 16.1 XFP (20th among WRs), 19.6 FPG (15th), and 9.5 targets per game (11th). Rice is a strong usage-based value with plenty of room for his role to grow, especially against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed the 5th-highest passer rating (99.2) since Week 7.

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $4,500 (WR34) | FanDuel: $6,200 (WR31)

Amari Cooper is in concussion protocol, and Joe Flacco is absolutely slinging the ball downfield…

The result? Moore is not only fantasy-relevant again, but he’s also egregiously underpriced in a top-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+2.6 FPG). In Week 13, Moore earned 26.7 XFP (3rd-most among all pass catchers) on 12 targets – both career-high marks.

Or course, this probably doesn’t matter if Dorian Thompson-Robinson is named the Week 14 starter and nukes the value of this passing attack. But if Flacco is under center come Sunday, Moore will be mega-chalk as one of the best plays of the slate.

Brevin Jordan, TE, Houston Texans (@ NYJ)

DraftKings: $3,100 (TE17) | FanDuel: $5,000 (TE15)

Dalton Schultz missed Week 13 and didn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and there is a chance that the same scenario will play out again in Week 14. In his absence, Jordan managed a 63% route share (3rd-highest on the team) and a 14% target share (2nd-highest). We can’t forget Schultz averaged 12.9 FPG from Week 4 through Week 12 (~TE5), so this TE role is certainly more valuable than Jordan’s current price tag (on either site) implies.

Assuming Schultz sits, Jordan will be the premier way to punt the position against a Jets’ defense that is by far the worst-possible schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs, but top-8 for opposing TEs.