This article will be continuously updated through Sunday morning.
This is in addition to a Tuesday update with transaction recommendations. Remember that these projections are an imperfect analysis working with the most current information and five years of historical data. If players practice in full, they’ll be excluded from any specific analysis and should be assumed healthy unless otherwise stated.
Sunday Update
Ja’Marr Chase will suit up and the bottom line is that he’s probably riskier than initially thought as he had to complete a workout on the field this morning. Not to mention the Bengals’ propensity to play fast and loose with participation designations in practice. So Chase is a boom/bust WR that you likely have to start in every league minus 8 team leagues.
T.J. Hockenson will play “in key situations”. Unless you have another top 5-6 option at tight end (or somebody like Taysom Hill with upside) you’re also starting Hockenson. No need to think of him for DFS lineups.
“*” indicates full breakdown below
Deshaun Watson
Kyler Murray*
Justin Fields*
Josh Allen
Will Levis
Dameon Pierce (doubtful)
Emari Demercado
Kendre Miller
David Montgomery*
Kenneth Walker III
Aaron Jones
James Conner*
Keaton Mitchell*
Christian Watson
Curtis Samuel
Deebo Samuel*
Demario Douglas
DeVante Parker
DK Metcalf
Justin Jefferson*
Drake London*
Ja’Marr Chase*
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Josh Downs (doubtful)
Justin Jefferson*
KaVontae Turpin
KJ Osborn
Michael Wilson
Nico Collins (OUT)
Odell Beckham Jr
Robert Woods
Tee Higgins (OUT)
Treylon Burks (OUT)
Tyler Lockett
Zay Jones (doubtful)
T.J. Hockenson
Quarterbacks
Justin Fields - Thumb
Fields seemed a long way off, based on several reports this week. It’s good news he returned to practice in a limited capacity, but he’s not out of the woods yet. This injury typically takes 4-6 weeks to really get right, and even then, there’s a chance he simply can’t regain his previous grip strength. Fields is more of a hold than an aggressive acquire.
Kyler Murray - ACL
I know the narrative is he won’t run as much. This may be true, but a caveat is that by now, most of his limitations are probably mental. Not to minimize the issue because psychology plays a significant role in the overall outcome, but by now, he should be physically healthy. Until we see otherwise, 10 months + is more than enough time for a large chunk of athletes to get right after an ACL. Back to the narrative, though. Here are some historical comps for Kyler as he returns. My take on this situation is that rushing is in Kyler’s DNA. Even removing his outlier 2020 rushing season and even after accounting for a 15% dip in production post ACL, K1 would still be a top 5 rushing QB in 2023. I get the wait-and-see approach, but it’s brutal out there, man. I’m personally starting Murray in a league where I lost Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins.
Running Backs
James Conner - Knee
Conner will likely return to the field this week after a mystery knee injury. Typically RBs can sustain their fantasy production upon returning but see a 20% dip in targets their first week back. There’s a small chance Kyler Murray decides to check down more in his first game back, so Conner is a sneaky tournament play despite the numbers.
Keaton Mitchell - Hamstring
The rookie was added to the injury report with a hamstring strain (again) this week. Everybody is understandably excited about the rookie, but make no mistake that if he takes on even more work in Week 10, a reinjury to the hamstring strain is in play. So tread lightly.
David Montgomery - Ribs
Montgomery carries no injury designation at this time and will likely step into a similar role he was in before this injury. However, the Lions now have the luxury of easing him in since they’ve discovered Jahmyr Gibbs is, um, good at football. James Conner’s return from a ribs injury in 2022 is a good baseline to expect. He scored 11 PPR points but only saw about 1/3 of his carries.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson - Hamstring
What you need to know on J.J. is that the re-injury rate is ~30%. Still, the risk is worth the reward to wait on Jefferson. Additionally, I truly believe a medical staff that once brought back a younger Adam Thielen much too soon learned from their mistakes. Taking 6 calendar weeks for their superstar receiver was the right move. Clinically, very few athletes take longer than that to return from even the worst of grade II tears. Given the length of time he was down and his young age, he should be able to bounce back at near full strength. A re-injury isn’t out of the cards, but Jefferson is worth the risk.
Ja’Marr Chase - Back
Chase landed hard on his back, which likely flared up the joints and muscles of his low back. Generally, if there isn’t structural damage, these only take a week or two to resolve. This shouldn’t be a big issue for Chase unless he takes another big shot. I’ve personally worked with athletes who act as paranoid as Chase, and let me tell you, their anxiety is very real to them, which is a separate topic. However, at times, it’s a bit overstated. His post-game comments were certainly fear-inducing, but now he’s tracking to play as expected. Low back pain is tough to deal with, and he’s at risk for re-aggravation, but he should be started in all leagues. With Tee Higgins out with a hamstring strain, Chase could also be a sneaky cash play for those scared off by the injury.
Drake London - Groin
London will return this week (probably). Here are some historical comps from other WRs who have returned after 1 game due to a groin strain. The recurrence rate for groin strains isn’t as high as it is for hamstrings but it isn’t zero. London is fine in season-long leagues but shouldn’t be used in any cash-games.
Deebo Samuel - Shoulder
Deebo has been a full participant in practice, but strangely enough, it does not mean he’s taken on contact yet. Some NFL teams will simulate contact but don’t see the point in going full tilt. That means there’s a chance Deebo could re-aggravate this shoulder fracture and/or isn’t quite mentally ready to be Deebo Samuel from a physicality perspective as a runner. Still, this warrants only a modest downgrade to tournaments only in DFS.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson - Ribs
Hockenson has a ribs issue. He’ll likely play. Start him.
Good luck!
