Scott Barrett's Week 1 Fantasy Recap

Instead of our usual article – The Usage Report – we’ve decided to go above and beyond for Week 2.

In my experience, fantasy owners are typically too worried about overreacting to Week 1, and not worried enough about underreacting to Week 1. It’s important we don’t get misled by a one-game sample size, but at the same time, if you know what to look for, if you’re able to separate the signal from the noise, are proactive and quick to act, this could be the week where you lay the foundation for your future Championship victory.

Today’s article is here to help…

Quarterbacks

1. You should be willing to buy into the notion that Tua Tagovailoa was one of the best values in 2023 drafts.

Tagovailoa ranked 2nd in EPA/play last season (0.242), behind only Patrick Mahomes (0.302). And he averaged a league-high 8.9 YPA, which also ranks 18th-best in NFL history.

Over the last two seasons, Tua Tagovailoa (ESPN ADP: QB13) averages 21.5 FPG in games he cleared a 75% snap share and did not suffer a concussion For perspective, Joe Burrow (ESPN ADP: QB5) averages 21.5 FPG over the same span.

In Week 1, Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards and three touchdowns. Notably, he did this against a tough Chargers secondary and without Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead. Since 2021, there are only four instances of a QB eclipsing 460 passing yards in a single game – Tagovailoa (twice) and Burrow (also twice).

Not only was Tagovailoa the top-scoring fantasy QB of the week, but he was also, easily, the best QB of the week based on film study.

2. Anthony Richardson is looking exactly like the top-12 fantasy QB I hoped he would be.

Richardson (ADP: QB11) was the highest-ranked QB in our Rookie Draft Guide (from an NFL perspective). And he was glaringly our highest-ranked rookie QB for fantasy because, no hyperbole, he’s the most athletic QB in NFL history.

Richardson averaged 10.3 career YPC with the Florida Gators, and eclipsed 90 rushing yards 6 times, despite only starting in 13 career games. His HC and offensive play-caller Shane Steichen helped fellow hyper-mobile QB Jalen Hurts to average 23.5 fantasy points per start over the past two seasons (3rd-most) and helped Justin Herbert to set rookie records in passing touchdowns (31) and passing YPG (289.1) in 2020.

In Week 1, Richardson was imperfect, but didn’t look too much like a QB making only his 14th career start since high school.

Richardson posted a 10-40-1 line on the ground, with 6 designed runs (2nd-most among QBs) and 3 of the team’s 4 carries inside the 10-yard line (prior to his late-game injury). With only 4 scrambles (5th-most on the week), 40 rushing yards feels close to his floor. Through the air, Richardson amassed 223 passing yards, only 30 yards shy of Jared Goff, who ranked 6th on the week.

In total, he finished as fantasy’s QB4 with 21.9 fantasy points, and he very easily could have finished with 28.0 – he suffered an injury and missed three plays while the team was on the 1-yard line. (HC Shane Steichen and Jalen Hurts made the “tush push” rushing touchdown famous in Philadelphia.) So, not only was he one of the best QBs on the week, but this was also one of the best debut performances by a rookie QB in recent memory – Robert Griffin III was the last QB to finish top-5 at the position in a Week 1 NFL debut.

Richardson was one of my priority targets at the QB position all off-season, and I’m even more bullish on his potential today.

3. It’s too early to give up on Deshaun Watson.

Watson has only ever looked atrocious with the Browns, averaging 179.4 passing yards per start with Cleveland (as opposed to 272.4 with the Texans). But it’s still a little early to give up on him.

Prior to last season, Watson had finished top-6 in FPG in 4 of 4 career seasons. Last year was rough, but he was understandably rusty, did have the most difficult strength of schedule of any fantasy QB, and was saddled with inordinately horrific weather luck.

In Week 1, the poor weather luck continued (heavy rain). And although Watson definitely struggled through the air (154 passing yards), he did outperform his opponent Joe Burrow (82 passing yards).

So, while Watson’s 179.4 passing yards per game definitely looks bad and is bad, consider this: Watson’s opposing QBs over this span (which includes Joe Burrow twice) average just 155.7.

Granted, he definitely could be toast, and the Browns simply could have made one of the worst trades in NFL history. But the upside is still clearly there. Even in this down performance, Watson finished as the QB5 on the week (21.7). Encouragingly, he rushed for 45 yards, which ranked 2nd-most of any QB on the week, and was his 2nd-best output since October of 2019.

4. Brock Purdy probably isn’t going to be a league-winner, but I think he was underrated in best ball drafts all offseason.

Purdy has arguably the best offensive play-caller and the best supporting cast in football. And he was a lot better as a rookie than he seems to get credit for.

Last season he finished 8th in fantasy points per start (18.6), and (if you include the postseason) 5th in fantasy points per dropback (0.60), ahead of Patrick Mahomes (0.59).

In Week 1, San Francisco completely took their foot off the gas in the second half of a 30-7 rout against the Steelers. But in the first half of this tough matchup, Purdy scored 14.5 fantasy points (putting him on pace for 29.0), while averaging 0.63 fantasy points per dropback (would have ranked 4th-best last year).

5. Extremely encouraging Week 1 from Jordan Love, Mac Jones, and Matthew Stafford.

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love came into this game with his WR1 missing in action (Christian Watson, hamstring) and his WR2 limited to a snap count (Romeo Doubs, hamstring, 48% snap share). And still, he threw for three touchdown passes (something Aaron Rodgers accomplished only once all of last year), and finished the week as the QB3 (23.0 fantasy points) while leading the position in both fantasy points per dropback (0.77) and passer rating (123.2).

Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

I was bullish on Mac Jones’ best ball potential all offseason. In his final season at Alabama, he earned a 95.8 PFF Grade – the most in PFF College history. In 2021, Jones earned a 78.5 PFF passing grade – the 3rd-highest grade PFF has awarded to a rookie since 2013. In 2022, things got bad. But I assumed that the decision to allow league-wide laughing stock Matt Patricia to call offensive plays had to have played a big role.

In his first game with Bill O’Brien – who once helped lead Deshaun Watson to four consecutive top-6 finishes by FPG – Jones scored 25.1 fantasy points (2nd-most of any QB on the week). And he accomplished this feat against a top-3 defense in the Eagles. And he did this without his WR1 (DeVante Parker) and with his WR2 (JuJu Smith-Schuster) being limited to a snap count (53% snap share).

Although Jones is probably not going to be a consistent starter for you in 1QB leagues, this could be huge for his supporting cast. For instance, Rhamondre Stevenson ranked 8th in XFP% last year (23.9%), but finished only 12th in FPG (14.7), largely because New England struggled to pick up first downs and break into the red zone. In Week 1, they ran 78 plays (3rd-most on the week), up from 61.5 per game a season ago (5th-fewest).

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Similarly, Matthew Stafford was highly impressive despite missing Cooper Kupp, 2021’s Offensive Player of the Year. The Rams scored 30 points in Week 1, while Stafford dropped 334 passing yards on only 38 attempts (8.8). Over the past two seasons, that ranks as the 4th-most points, the 2nd-most yards, and the 3rd-worst YPA average the Seahawks have given up to an opposing QB. Stafford ended the week behind only Tua Tagovailoa in PFF grading, and behind only Tagovailoa and Cousins in passing yards.

Like with Jones, the key takeaway is what this can do for Stafford’s teammates. If Stafford and this Rams offense look a lot more like they did in 2021 than 2022, surely Cooper Kupp won’t be the only fantasy viable option.

7. You’re not panicking on Joe Burrow / Daniel Jones / Josh Allen, it’s just that the Browns / Cowboys / Jets own him.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Over his last 30 games, Burrow averages 11.2 FPG against the Browns, but 23.0 FPG against anyone else.

Not only was it a tough matchup, but Burrow was also, perhaps, understandably rusty after missing all of preseason and much of training camp. Which is to say, there will assuredly be brighter days ahead for Tee Higgins. Although he put up a goose egg, he did see 8 targets — and it’s not his fault that 5 of those were deemed “uncatchable” per our charters.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

Since Week 7 of last year, Daniel Jones has averaged just 13.5 FPG against the NFC East. Against all other opponents, he averages 23.5 FPG.

If I drafted Jones, I’d hold onto him and expect a bounce-back performance this week against the Cardinals. But I would be more than a little worried about this offensive line, and his chances in Week 3 against Nick Bosa and the 49ers.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen scored only 12 fantasy points and turned the ball over 5 times in Week 1.

In the words of Josh Allen, it was the “same shit, same place, different day.”

8. Arthur Smith / Desmond Ridder means you probably overdrafted Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

As if you thought things couldn’t get any worse than what you saw from the Falcons last year, when they…

• Ran a sloth-paced offense that ranked 4th-worst in seconds per snap (28.2).

• Were World War II-era levels of run-heavy – they averaged the 9th-fewest pass attempts per game by any team since 1985 (which, by the way, was 38 years ago).

• Couldn’t get a catchable ball to their receivers to save their life – Marcus Mariota ranked worst of 33-qualifying QBs by off-target throw rate (20.3%). And Desmond Ridder was somehow even worse than that (27.0%).

Their 2023 opener was somehow even more pathetic.

In Week 1, Atlanta beat the Panthers 24-10, while Ridder’s 58 air yards passing was only slightly better than Steelers TE3 Connor Heyward’s 57 air yards receiving (51st-most among all receivers). He completed just 6 passes to non-RBs, 1 of which was to himself, which was also one more reception than what Drake London had.

As good as Drake London and Kyle Pitts both are (undeniably), they’re not players I’d be excited or happy to own in fantasy this year.

9. The New York Jets offense will be a barren wasteland all year… Or for at least as long as Zach Wilson remains the starter.

My heart goes out to everyone who drafted Garrett Wilson, but yeah… Things are going to get rough.

How bad was Zach Wilson last year?

Ostensibly, the difference between Wilson and still backup-caliber QB talent (Mike White, Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson) is equivalent to the difference between the best passing attack in football and the 2nd-worst.

How bad is Zach Wilson?

Basically, he appears to be the only QB on the planet incapable of coaxing WR1 fantasy production out of Garrett Wilson.

How bad is Zach Wilson?

On Sunday, the Jets had a top-5 team in the NFL. On Tuesday, Vegas had them missing the playoffs by a mile.

I really do think this injury crushes Garrett Wilson’s fantasy value. I had him ranked as a fringe-Round 1 pick this offseason. But if I could get a do-over, I’d probably take him 3-4 rounds later.

This might not be bad news for Breece Hall, however, as I imagine HC Robert Saleh is trying to have him throw the ball as little as possible.

Running Backs

10. Drafting Christian McCaffrey as your RB1 was definitely the right call.

Elijah Mitchell barely played in Week 1 (15% snap share, 5 touches), while Christian McCaffrey earned 22 carries and 4 targets on a position-best 84.8% snap share. Crucially, he earned a 100% snap share inside the red zone, up from 62% with the 49ers last year. But what was most impressive about this was his usage was that this all came in non-competitive 30-7 rout. You’d think this sort of blowout gamescript would be perfectly suited for Mitchell’s skillset, but it was McCaffrey who dominated the backfield.

So, yeah, to me, McCaffrey is looking like the top bell cow and the clear RB1 in fantasy.

Oh, and by the way, he also looked pretty damn good – his 65-yard touchdown run was his longest run since 2019.

11. Austin Ekeler led all RBs in weighted opportunity and finished 2nd in fantasy points scored (26.4), but…

It’s a little worrisome how much Joshua Kelley mixed in.

Ekeler earned 16 carries and 5 targets, gaining 164 YFS and scoring 26.4 fantasy points.

Joshua Kelley earned 16 carries and 1 target, gaining 91 YFS and scoring 15.1 fantasy points. This was just Kelley’s second career game with more than 12 carries. In the fourth quarter, Kelley also scored from a carry on the one-yard-line, although Ekeler still bested Kelley 4 to 6 on opportunities inside the 10-yard-line.

Again, Ekeler’s raw volume was terrific – actually best in the league by XFP (23.7), but his 54% snap share was also a significant decline from last year’s 62%.

But this is also a little nitpicky. After all, Ekeler’s 50% carry share and 15.2% target share in Week 1 weren’t dramatically different from last season when Ekeler led the position in FPG with a 59% carry share and a 17.3% target share.

Plus, this all very well could be injury-related – Ekeler was listed with an injury (ankle) after the game. And I’d guess that this injury came late in the game because, minus the 4th quarter, Ekeler’s snap share jumps back up to 65% (better than his 62% last season).

Right now on Twitter, fantasy analysts are speculating that we may now have a “thunder and lightning”-style committee on our hands. Or, worse yet, that Kelley is now the Ezekiel Elliott to Ekeler’s Tony Pollard. But this feels like an overreaction to me.

I’d say Kelley is definitely a player you want to have on your roster right now, especially given Ekeler’s injury (severity currently unknown), but I’ll need to see a little bit more from him before I can buy into the notion that he has standalone value working alongside a healthy Ekeler.

12. For the first time since 2018, Derrick Henry was fully healthy and did not lead the Titans backfield in snaps.

Henry’s Week 1 usage was unideal, but only a little unideal. He earned 15 of 18 carries out of the backfield (83%, down from 85% last year) and saw 3 targets (8.8% target share, down from 9.6%) on an 18% route share (down from 32%). And he played on only 47.5% of the team’s snaps (down from 66.8%).

Rookie RB Tyjae Spears, meanwhile, played on 61.0% of the team’s snaps, earning 3 carries and 4 targets.

And we can’t really blame this all on gamescript, as Tennessee trailed on only 37% of their offensive plays, and never by more than 7 points.

Obviously, this is unideal. But it’s also probably nowhere near as bad as it looks at first glance, because Henry almost always ranked close to dead-last at the position in targets per routes run. Basically, although Henry lost about 10-12 snaps from his typical workload, these were probably going to be empty snaps (where Henry was never going to touch the ball) anyway. So it could be the case where Henry’s touch projection isn’t diminished in a very meaningful way.

Nonetheless, if I were drafting a team today, I probably would move Henry down a spot or two in my rankings (he was my RB6).

13. Pour one out for J.K. Dobbins owners…

If we were playing with injuries turned off, I’m pretty confident Dobbins was going to be a league-winner. Prior to his season-ending Achilles injury, Dobbins handled 8 of the team’s 9 carries and 2 of the team’s 2 targets out of the backfield. Just a few minutes before the injury, I was beating myself up for being too low on him.

So, who in this backfield will step up in his absence? It’s tough to say.

Right now it’s looking like a 50/50 committee – both Justice Hill and Gus Edwards saw exactly 8 carries and zero targets – but I wouldn’t be surprised if Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt were signed later this week. (Melvin Gordon will also definitely be brought up from the practice squad.) If I had to pick a favorite, I’d lean towards Gus Edwards who – believe it or not – ranks behind only Nick Chubb in YPC since he entered the league (5.14).

14. I remain very bullish on Nick Chubb’s Exodia potential…

If you look at the box score from this game, you might think this was close to a 50/50 committee backfield. But if you exclude the 4th-quarter when Joe Burrow was pulled from this 24-3 drubbing, then it was clear Chubb looked a lot like a highest-end bell cow, and a lot like a player with the potential to finish as the overall RB1 in fantasy.

From 2020-2022, Chubb averaged 16.7 carries per game (63% carry share), 1.9 targets per game (37% backfield target share), and 102.7 YFS per game.

Through the first three quarters of Week 1, Chubb was on pace for 21.3 carries (80% carry share), 5.3 targets (100% backfield target share), and 149.3 YFS.

15. James Conner and Rachaad White were the bell cow RBs we were hoping they’d be, but…

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner was indeed the bell cow HC Jonathan Gannon had promised us he’d be. He earned 14 of 19 backfield carries (74%) and 5 of 5 targets out of the backfield (17% target share), while playing on a whopping 84.5% of the team’s snaps (2nd-most among all RBs). He averaged 4.4 YPC while the only other RB to touch the ball (Keaontay Ingram, his “stiffest” competition) averaged -0.8 YPC.

The only problem was that he only scored 12.0 fantasy points. That’s disappointing but also not too surprising. Without Kliff Kingsbury, this offense is running at a much slower pace – the Cardinals ranked 2nd-fastest on a per-snap basis last year (24.8 seconds) but ranked just 15th-fastest in Week 1 (26.5). And then beyond that, the offense was also a whole lot worse without Kyle Murray (0 touchdowns, 3.6 yards per play). The hope with Conner is that he can be a serviceable RB2 on volume alone until Murray returns (ETA: tentatively Week 5), and then put together a second half that’s only a little bit similar to what we saw from him last year. Remember, Conner ranked behind only Christian McCaffrey in FPG from Week 10-on (19.8).

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In Week 1, White played on 79.4% of the team’s snaps (4th-most by any RB on the week), while earning 17 carries and 2 targets. And he was one of only two RBs (Christian McCaffrey being the other) to earn 100% of the team’s snaps inside the red zone. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he was dreadfully inefficient. Per Seth Walder, White’s -38 rushing yards over expectation was the 4th-worst game by any RB over the last two years.

Granted, Sean Tucker wasn’t much better (-1.0 rushing yards over expectation per attempt). But this is still pretty bad, and – given the state of Tampa Bay’s offensive line – is probably going to remain bad.

That’s worrisome, but it’s far from a death knell so long as White maintains this usage. In the words of Jared Smola, “If Rachaad White isn’t the worst RB on the planet, he’s going to deliver.” The big concern is that White might continue to be woefully inefficient, paving the way for Tucker and/or Chase Edmonds to force a committee. And we did see signs of this in Week 1 – White earned an 83% opportunity share in the first half, but that fell to just 56% in the second.

This is all pretty bad, but the single least encouraging thing about White’s Week 1 was that he only saw two targets (5.9% target share, 50% backfield target share). When I was telling you all off-season that White was maybe the single most mispriced RB in fantasy, I was anticipating something like 4.5 targets per game. Hopefully, this was just a one-week aberration.

In any case, I remain pretty bullish on both RBs heading into Week 2.

But I would definitely also recommend all fantasy players in deep leagues or with an RB-needy team to stash Tucker on your bench. He’s looking to be like one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy. Because not only does he have massive injury upside, but there’s a legitimate chance he could win the RB1 job on talent alone (which may only be the case for 2-3 other handcuffs).

16. Unideal usage but encouraging signs from rookie RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson…

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

Gibbs’ 27.1% snap share in Week 1 is unideal, but it’s also not something that worries me. It’s not uncommon for NFL head coaches to ease highly-drafted rookies into playing time. And this was basically what HC Dan Campbell said on Friday – “First game out of the gate, we really didn’t want to overload any of those guys. Now they’ve got that one under their belt, he’ll begin to get more touches now. So, that was just the beginning last night.”

The much bigger takeaway to me was how good he looked, averaging 0.78 missed tackles forced per touch (most of any RB on the week).

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Similarly, Robinson’s workload is sure to climb, even if it’s still more of a committee than we’d all like. And luckily, committee usage isn’t really a major problem on this unique offense, which runs the offense through the RBs – Atlanta led the league in RB rushing yards last year, with much lesser talent. (In Week 1, Tyler Allgeier led all RBs in XFP market share, while Robinson ranked 2nd.)

The bottom line to me is: Robinson looked amazing, earned a promising 65% snap share, and saw a ton of work in the passing game (35% target share!), even if Allgeier did vulture him twice at the goal line. He’s also the sort of player – I think, like Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, and Nick Chubb – where volume doesn’t matter anywhere near as much as it does with most other RBs, which is to say, he’s a tremendous talent who will likely out-score his XFP by +25% by year’s end.

17. Cam Akers was wildly overdrafted, in part (but only in part) because Sean McVay is a liar.

Akers ended Week 1 with 22 carries, 0 targets, 29 YFS, and one touchdown.

Meanwhile, Kyren Williams had 15 carries, 2 targets, 52 YFS, and two touchdowns. Williams also out-snapped Akers 11 to 3 inside the red zone.

Akers’ final stat line may seem okay (22 touches), but diving any deeper into his numbers would leave any Akers owner feeling queasy. Williams out-touched Cam Akers 14 to 11 until the Rams took a 24-13 lead. At halftime, Williams had out-snapped 26 to 4. And even by game’s end, Williams had exactly twice as many snaps as Akers (52 to 26).

Keep in mind, gamescript wasn’t necessarily better suited for Williams – the Rams never trailed by more than 6 points, and the Rams led throughout the entirety of the second half. Akers’ usage didn’t really pick up until the Rams built up a two-score lead. And needless to say, I’m not expecting too many two-score leads from this Rams team which is only projected to win 5.5 more games.

As if Akers’ usage wasn’t bad enough, he was also played terribly.

Add it all up, and it’s looking like Akers was one of the worst picks you could have made at ADP. (Although I said the exact same thing this time last year.) And if I had to guess, I’d say Williams probably out-scores Akers by season’s end.

18. Other RBs trending up

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Okay, so… I did not expect this to be the case, but the Eagles really weren’t bluffing – Kenneth Gainwell was the clear RB1 in Week 1.

Gainwell played on 62% of the team’s snaps, handling 14 of 16 carries (88%), 4 of 7 targets out of the backfield (57%), and 2 of the team’s 2 backfield opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Not only was this terrific usage, it was significantly better usage than what Miles Sanders saw last year, when he finished 22nd in FPG (13.0).

Again, Gainwell’s usage was great. But he also didn’t really do anything with it (11.4 fantasy points, 3.86 YPC). And he’s never showed us much at any point in his career – he’s arguably the least explosive RB in football, never once gaining more than 20 yards on any one of his 195 career touches.

I think it’s only a matter of time until D’Andre Swift and/or Rashaad Penny render him obsolete. But for now, we definitely have to take him seriously. And, I think, even view him as a fringe-RB2 every week until proven otherwise.

This is arguably the best offensive line in football, one of the most potent offenses, and given their 14-3 record last year, game script should be near-ideal most weeks. But, I think by Week 5 at the latest, this is going to be a gross low-upside 3-way committee (potentially 4-way committee if we want to include QB Jalen Hurts). But for now, Gainwell is a serious fantasy asset.

Update: Then again, Gainwell is currently dealing with an injury and might not be able to play in time for Thursday’s game. So, maybe a Week 5 timeline for a changing of the guard wasn’t pessimistic enough.

Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Heading into Week 1, Tom Pelissero told us “The Cowboys don’t want to burn Pollard out in Week 1. The goal [for Week 1] is to give Pollard 18-20 touches.”

To me, that statement alone means Pollard should have been drafted like a top-5 RB all offseason. (Pollard averaged just 14.5 touches per game last season.)

Pollard was the most efficient RB in fantasy last season. Their defense looks elite. Their offense and offensive line look great. And we know, HC Mike McCarthy wants to run the expletive out of the ball.

There’s not much to take away from Pollard’s Week 1 usage, given that this was a 40-0 blowout that stopped being competitive before Dak Prescott ever even touched the ball. But his usage was still pretty terrific in spite of that. He ranked 2nd among all RBs in XFP (20.4) and, crucially, earned 6 of the team’s 6 carries inside the 10-yard-line. That’s already half of his 2022 total, when Elliott out-carried him 26 to 12 inside the 10-yard-line. And Pollard’s results were as good as ever. He finished the week as fantasy’s RB5, scoring 22.2 fantasy points. He’s now exceeded 21.5 fantasy points in 4 of 4 career starts without Ezekiel Elliott, averaging 27.2 FPG in these games.

So, yeah, consider me bullish – if you drafted Pollard, I believe you drafted a top-5 fantasy RB.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Walker appears to be the clear RB1 in Seattle’s offense. That may change as Round 2 rookie RB Zach Charbonnet gets acclimated to NFL playing speed, but for right now, he’s the clear RB1.

Despite gamescript poorly suited for his skillset – Seattle trailed on 56% of their offensive plays – Walker earned a 65% snap share while handling 12 carries and 5 targets. That may not seem like a lot, but the Seahawks also barely spent any time on offense. And, in fact, his 19.2% target share ranked 2nd-best on the week, and well above his 2022 average (6.7%).

Zach Charbonnet finished with 3 carries and 0 targets, while DeeJay Dallas earned 2 carries and 1 target.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots

Stevenson’s Week 1 usage wasn’t quite as good as it was last season when Damien Harris was dealing with injury…

It wasn’t quite as good, but it was still quite a bit better than his RB15 ADP (ESPN) suggested it might be.

Stevenson ranked 8th in snap share (74%), and his 58 snaps led all RBs on the week. He out-carried Ezekiel Elliott 12 to 7, including the team’s only carry inside the 10-yard-line. And although Stevenson only out-targeted Elliott 6 to 5, he did run exactly twice as many routes (32 to 16).

I’m not quite ready to draw a definitive conclusion from this, apart from some mild optimism. But I will say the biggest takeaway for me (as we alluded to earlier), was just how fast-paced and potent this offense was in Week 1. If New England’s offense can go from easily bottom-10 to merely “above average,” that would be enough to more-than-offset any slight decline in usage.

Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers

In Week 1, Miles Sanders wasn’t technically a bell cow by usage – 58% snap share, 56% carry share, 71% backfield target share – but he certainly was by raw volume. He ended his day with 18 carries, 5 targets, and 2 opportunities inside the 20-yard line. In other words, he ranked 3rd best on the week by weighted opportunity (19.4), also good for the 4th-most of his career.

It’s a little too early to say for certain, but I’d guess Sanders finishes the season as a mid-range RB2.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

In Week 1, James Cook looked quite a bit like the bell cow I was hoping he’d be. His 60% snap share (20th-most) was lower than I would have liked, but he did handle 12 of 15 carries (80%) and 6 of 10 targets out of the backfield (60%). Weirdly – given his usage in college – his rushing usage was a lot better than I expected, and his passing down involvement was what most disappointed me. Cook’s 6 targets ranked 2nd-most on the week, and his 24 routes (2.2X the next-closest Bills RB) ranked 5th-most, but it was weird to see Latavius Murray replace Cook in the two-minute drill. I’m hoping and guessing that this means the Bills don’t really trust Cook in pass protection, which doesn’t really matter for fantasy, and would explain his lower-than-expected snap share. One other potential concern for this 199-pound RB is that Damien Harris played on 2 of the team’s 2 snaps inside the 10-yard line. But for right now, that’s just something to monitor in Week 2.

In any case, I remain just as bullish on Cook as I’ve been all offseason.

Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets

Yes, obviously, the fact that Hall averaged 12.7 YPC in his first game back from ACL surgery matters a great deal more than anything related to his immediate usage and playing. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that Dalvin Cook averaged only 2.5 YPC.

The big takeaway is that Breece Hall is insanely good at football, and Week 1 was a powerful reminder of that.

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Kevin O’Connell was truthful this offseason when proclaiming Alexander Mattison would be the team’s bell cow RB this season. He earned 11 of 14 carries (79%) and 4 of 5 targets out of the backfield (80%) on a 73.0% snap share (9th-best). This added up to 17.1 XFP, which ranked 7th-best on the week. Based on this usage, I think we should be viewing Mattison no differently than we did with Dalvin Cook last year (73% snap share, 15.2 XFP/G), although we should probably expect lesser efficiency.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne’s Week 1’s usage was imperfect, and rookie Tank Bigsby could continue to see more work as the season goes on, but this was definitely way more positive than not.

There was some buzz this offseason – when he worked with the wide receiver group at times in training camp – that Etienne be more involved in the passing game this year. And that was certainly the case in Week 1. Etienne earned a 69% route share (career-high) and a 15.6% target share (career-high), and his 79.7% snap share ranked 4th-best among all RBs on the week.

All of that is excellent, and his rushing usage looks good at first glance, with 18 of 26 carries (69%), but Tank Bigsby did see all 2 of the team’s 2 RB opportunities inside the 10-yard-line. Remember, this was a big concern all offseason – Etienne was one of the league’s least-efficient RBs near the end zone last year, and Jacksonville coaches kept hinting that Bigsby could take over this goal-line role. In other words, Etienne looks like a bell cow everywhere except where it matters the most (inside of the 10-yard line).

I imagine Etienne will be a dependable every-week starter for you, but if this trend continues, the lack of touchdown upside probably means he’ll be more of a “good pick” at ADP (RB11) rather than a true league-winner.

Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Moss should be owned in 1000% of all leagues. He’s currently owned in just 7% of all Yahoo leagues.

Moss was the clear RB1 for the Colts at the tail-end of last season, averaging 17.3 carries and 83.5 rushing YPG. And he’s going to be the team’s clear RB1 until Jonathan Taylor returns. And, to be quite honest, I’m not sure Taylor ever plays for the Colts again. Or, at least, that’s more or less what Adam Schefter told us several weeks ago.

19. Other RBs trending down

Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris is looking like one of the worst fantasy picks you could have made.

Ian Rapaport told us heading into the game that we should expect a full-blown committee between Harris and “training camp star” Jaylen Warren; basically that Warren will get all of third downs and some percentage of early-down work.

In a Week 1 blowout loss where Kenny Pickett attempted 46 passes, Harris (50% snap share) ended his day with 6 carries, 2 targets, and 5.3 fantasy points. Warren (38% snap share) ended with 3 carries, 6 targets, and 6.8 fantasy points.

Again, Harris looks like a bust, stuck in a full-blown 50/50 committee. But I’m not sure that Warren owners can victory lap anything. I don’t think either of these players is going to be fantasy difference-makers. They’re just two RBs on a bad team who will be cannibalizing each other’s production and capping each other’s upside each week.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans

I initially had Pierce buried in my rankings, expecting Houston’s offense to be bad, and for Pierce to be working in a committee alongside Devin Singletary. But then I got a little too excited by Pierce’s every-down usage in the preseason, and some press conference quotes highlighting his passing-down involvement.

Needless to say, I think I was right the first time.

In a 25-9 loss, where C.J. Stroud attempted 44 passes, Pierce played on only 48% of the snaps (his lowest snap share since Week 1 of last season), earning 11 of 18 carries (61%) and 2 of 5 targets out of the backfield. He was out-targeted by Mike Boone (4 to 3), who ran only 2 fewer routes. Singletary wasn’t really involved in the passing game (5 routes), but Pierce only out-carried him 11 to 7.

Granted, this was exactly the opposite sort of gamescript where we’d expect Pierce to do well. And although I’m sure better days for Pierce lie ahead, but there will probably be a lot more bad days than good. (The Texans rank 2nd-worst in Super Bowl odds.) And I’d guess that Pierce probably has a very hard time paying off his RB16 ADP (ESPN).

Chicago Bears RBs

Without getting too deep into the weeds here… I’m highly skeptical Chicago is going to produce a RB you ever feel comfortable starting for fantasy. To me, this looks like a super gross 3-way committee backfield (potentially 4-way if you want to include QB Justin Fields) on a bad offense.

Roschon Johnson led the backfield in snaps, which is especially impressive given that this was his first career game. But also, half of his touches came in garbage time.

Nonetheless, he definitely is the RB in this backfield to be most “excited” about.

20. Other Running Backs (Neutral /Expected Takeaways)

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

I hate to say it, but Aaron Jones is looking to me like a major sell-high candidate.

The good news is – he was the highest-scoring fantasy RB on the week (26.7 fantasy points) despite nearly missing the entirety of the fourth quarter with a minor injury. And he did (as usual) dance circles around A.J. Dillon – Jones averaged 11.5 yards per touch to Dillon’s 2.4. If Green Bay’s coaches had any sense, they’d let Jones be the bell cow he deserves to be. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that – for whatever reason – Jones remains stuck in a 50/50 committee backfield. If excluding the 4th quarter (to account for Jones’ injury)… Jones barely out-snapped Dillon (28 to 21), matched him in carries (9 to 9), and saw only 2 additional targets (2 to 4). Worse yet, Dillon out-carried Jones 3 to 1 inside the 10-yard-line, which is the exact same ratio we’ve seen since Week 10 of 2021 (36 for Dillon, 12 for Jones).

If Jones is going to pay off his RB12 ADP (ESPN), he’s either going to have to be the most hyper-efficient RB in fantasy, or Green Bay’s coaches are going to have to come to their senses.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders / Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Josh Jacobs Week 1 usage was just as good as ever: 80% snap share, 19 of 20 carries, and 3 of 5 targets out of the backfield (48% route share).

The same goes for Joe Mixon: 65% snap share, 13 of 17 carries, and 4 of 5 targets out of the backfield (47% route share).

That’s all either a little bit better or identical to what we saw from both RBs last year. And in Mixon’s case, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw even better usage in Week 2, because it’s hard to glean much from a 24-3 beatdown where your star QB averaged 2.6 YPA.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson feels more like a sell-high candidate than a player I’d be excited to own. Chris Rodriguez (3 carries) didn’t work in quite as much as the team had hinted at this offseason, but that’s not uncommon with rookie RBs making their NFL debut. And Antonio Gibson didn’t get as much work as I had anticipated (37% snap share), but he also may have been in the doghouse after fumbling earlier in the game. So, although Robinson scored 13.6 fantasy points on 20 touches, he also played on only 60% of the team’s snaps. So, I’m going to give it at least another week until I pivot off of my original take – that this is still a low-upside and gross 3-way committee backfield on a bad offense. But I’m now more open to being wrong.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos

It’s hard to glean much from Williams’ Week 1, his first game back from an ACL surgery (well ahead of his initial timeline, mind you).

But, needless to say, it’s highly encouraging he led the backfield in snaps, carries, and targets, even if it wasn’t a lot. And because the RB is such a focal point of this offense, he also ranked 13th-best among all RBs in XFP market share (22.3%) in spite of this split.

Given Sean Payton’s history with the position – I’d say Williams feels like a lock to beat his RB27 ADP (ESPN).

Wide Receivers

21. If you were re-drafting today, Tyreek Hill would be the 1.01. He’s probably going to break the NFL record for single-season receiving yards.

The only thing holding me back from ranking Hill as the 1.01 heading into the season was some concern regarding Tagovailoa’s ability to stay healthy. But in games Tagovailoa suits up, Hill should almost always be the top player in our projections. Last season, Hill averaged 23.0 FPG (would have led all flex-eligible players) in games in which Tua Tagovailoa was fully healthy.

He also averaged 3.20 YPRR across the full season, which ranks best among 2,158-qualifying WR seasons since 2009. Basically, if he ran as many routes as Justin Jefferson (2.62 YPRR) last year, he would have had 2,208 yards.

In Week 1, ran 35 routes, catching 11 of 15 targets for 215 yards and two touchdowns (44.5 fantasy points). He’s currently on pace for 3,655 yards.

Now, this isn’t at all an indictment of Jefferson, who was also awesome – although it appears his poor touchdown luck carried over into Week 1 – posting a 9-150-0 line. Jefferson would be the clear 1.02 if I were re-drafting today.

22. Puka Nacua and Zay Flowers shine with historically great NFL debuts.

In Week 1, rookie Zay Flowers led all WRs in target share (45.5%), and fellow rookie Puka Nacua ranked 2nd (49.5%). Both WRs saw historically great volume for a WR making their Week 1 NFL debut.

Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams

In Week 1, Nacua earned a league-high 15 targets, catching 10 for 119 yards. Fellow Rams WR Tutu Atwell matched Nacua in yards but saw 7 fewer targets, while Van Jefferson did very little of anything (24 yards on 5 targets). The Rams did a good job of moving Nacua around the line of scrimmage (27% slot rate), and getting him the ball at multiple levels (2 deep targets, 3 intermediate targets, 9 short targets, 1 target behind the line of scrimmage). It’s a little too early to call it, but it’s very possible Sean McVay will have him playing in the “Cooper Kupp role” until Kupp returns

Because of how well he performed in his first NFL game. Because of the Rams’ lack of talent at the position (at least until when/if Cooper Kupp returns). And because of how impressive Matthew Stafford and this Sean McVay offense looked against a tough defense, I’m very willing to buy into the notion that Nacua could be a valuable fantasy asset this year. Nacua could be a league-winner if Kupp sits out all year. And while Kupp’s healthy return would cap that upside, there would still be plenty of upside for him if he can supplant Van Jefferson as the team’s clear WR2. And it appears to me like he’s already done that.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Flowers ended his day with 9 catches on 10 targets for 78 yards. His league-high 60% designed target percentage could be read positively – such as, Baltimore was going out of their way to get the ball in the hands of their best play-maker. Or negatively – based on this stat and his pathetic 2.6 aDOT, it’s clear Flowers didn’t really do all that much on his own (unlike Nacua); he wasn’t actually beating NFL cornerbacks, he was just “not missing” on layups.

This is only a minor concern, of course. And the most important takeaway is that Flowers has immediately become Baltimore’s clear WR1, fully relegating Round 1 WR Rashod Bateman to part-time status (48% route share). Bateman can now be dropped in all formats, and I much prefer Bateman over Odell Beckham Jr. as well.

23. Kansas City Chiefs WRs struggle mightily in Week 1.

I could write 10,000 words on this if you let me, but, basically…

I remain bullish on Kadarius Toney for reasons articulated here.

If you drafted Skyy Moore, you have to give him another week. But – for reasons articulated here – I’d bet you’ll probably be dropping him after next week.

Because Toney and Moore were so ridiculously bad in Week 1, I remain bullish on Justyn Ross. If he doesn’t see a sizable increase in route participation, he’s probably not worth stashing in shallow bench leagues after this week. But you should add him to the top of your waiver wire watch list and keep a careful eye on him.

Similarly, Rashee Rice is certainly worth stashing in deep bench leagues.

As of right now, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the team’s clear WR1, and I’m skeptical he has enough talent for you to ever feel comfortable starting him, but he’s also worth a roster spot in deep leagues.

Basically, there’s a lot of upside for the WR1 on a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Right now we’re just not so sure who it’s going to be – but again, I’m betting heavily on Toney.

24. Calvin Ridley was one of the best draft picks you could have made, while Christian Kirk was one of the worst.

Calvin Ridley had an ADP of WR17 on ESPN this offseason, but if I were re-drafting today, I’d probably slide him in somewhere around WR10 or WR11 at the latest.

The big question with Ridley was whether or not he would actually be featured as the clear WR1 of this offense – something of a rarity for a Doug Pederson offense – but Ian Rapaport told us heading into the week this would be the case. And, well, he was clearly right.

Ridley finished with 8 catches on 11 targets for 101 yards and a score in a game Trevor Lawrence didn’t play all that particularly well. Better yet, he ranked 6th in target share (34.4%), 10th in air yardage market share (48.6%), and ranked 6th in first read targets (9).

After Ridley, Zay Jones was the clear No. 2 on the team, both by route share (80%) and target share (22%). He ended his day with a 5-55-1 line on 7 targets. Christian Kirk, meanwhile was the clear WR3 (69%), coming off the field in 2 WR sets (9% route share in 2WR sets), and earning a target share of just 9% (5th-best on the team).

Kirk will surely have better games than this, and will probably still be deserving of a roster spot. But I doubt he’ll ever be a WR you’re excited to start.

25. All three Saints WRs looked awesome. (Granted, against potentially the worst secondary in football.)

Despite at least one drive due to injury, Chris Olave appeared to be the clear WR1 of this offense, and a clear WR1 for fantasy.

He caught 8 of 10 targets for 112 yards. His 30.3% target share ranked 9th among all WRs, and his 136 air yards also ranked 9th-best. He ranked behind only Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and CeeDee Lamb in YPRR (3.85). And, interestingly, he led all WRs in percentage of routes coming from the backfield (10%). You love to see that from a high-aDOT WR like Olave – he’s an elite deep threat, but the team is also going out of their way to get him some easy catches to pad his PPR floor.

Michael Thomas’ Week 1 went about as well as could have hoped. He escaped the game without an injury and played a full-time role (team-high 84% route share). He only caught 5 of 8 targets for 61 yards, but he did finish 22nd among all WRs in target share (24%). Thomas probably won’t be close to who he was in 2019 – in part because he’s no longer the clear alpha WR1 – but there is still some underrated upside here on a Saints offense that looks vastly improved from a season ago.

Rashid Shaheed is looking like one of the best best ball picks you could have made all offseason, which is no surprise to me. But it’s still way too early to make that call in season-long leagues. Shaheed ran a route on 66% of the team’s dropbacks, which isn’t bad for a WR3. But that number might have been inflated by Olave’s injury. I’ll have an update for you on this next week.

26. If I were re-drafting today, I think I’d probably take Brandon Aiyuk ahead of Deebo Samuel.

This isn’t something I’m super convicted of, but this is my lean right now.

Our film expert Brett Whitefield told me all offseason that Brandon Aiyuk is already a top-10 WR in the NFL based on film study (ahead of Samuel). And it’s looking like he was right.

27. Jakobi Meyers looks like one of the best picks you could have made in best-ball leagues.

Meyers is looking like the best best-ball pick you could have made all offseason. And unlike some of the other players I’ve said that about thus far in this space, I’m legitimately optimistic he could be a future starter for you in season-long leagues.

Why? Because his Week 1 usage was legitimately mind-blowing.

He led all WRs in both XFP per route run (1.27) and fantasy points per route run (1.27, tied with Tyreek Hill). He ranked 2nd in targets per route run (0.43), 3rd in 1st read target share (43.8%), and 1st in end zone target share (100%, 2 of 2). Perhaps most impressively, given his reputation as a low-aDOT PPR merchant, Meyers ranked 14th in air yardage market share (41.5%).

It’s also encouraging just how good this offense looked – the Raiders were the only team in the league to gain a first down on every offensive possession that did not end in kneel-downs.

This was undoubtedly a shock, but I’m beating myself up for not seeing it coming. Meyers’ skillset is perfectly suited for QB Jimmy Garoppolo (someone very high on the Alex Smith spectrum), while Davante Adams very much is not. And Meyers also has familiarity with the Josh McDaniels scheme, a scheme which is notoriously difficult to learn for WRs.

From a DFS perspective, this is also very exciting. The Raiders were one of the best teams to target in DFS last year, not because they were very good, but because their offense was so condensed. Last season their top-3 players combined for 64% of the team’s XFP (by far the most), even though their No. 3 player (Mack Hollins) barely did anything. In Week 1, that number jumped to 85%.

Granted, this very much could be a Week 1 anomaly. And I think it certainly was in one way – Davante Adams drew shadow coverage from potentially the best CB in the NFL (Patrick Surtain). But nonetheless, consider me bullish on Meyers long-term (once he returns from the concussion he suffered on the final drive of the game.)

28. Other WRs Trending Up

Elijah Moore, WR, Cleveland Browns

Shout out to my guy Elijah Moore who saw terrific usage in Week 1. I was saying all offseason that he was one of the best values at the position, and it certainly looked that way after Week 1. (Although, granted, Amari Cooper did miss some time in the game due to injury.) Moore led the team in route share (86%), target share (24.1%, tied with Cooper), and receiving yards (43), while also earning two carries on the ground (gaining 19 yards). That’s tremendous usage, and also the biggest takeaway of his day (over the results), in a game in which Watson averaged only 5.3 YPA.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

In best ball drafts this offseason, I was torn trying to pick between Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, or none of the above as far as who was the best value. There were quite a bit of questions surrounding Richardson’s accuracy heading into the season, although he was very often praised for incredible arm strength and deep ball accuracy. That was an argument in favor of Pierce, who excels as a deep threat. The argument in favor of Pittman was that he’s a much better and fairly underrated talent, and that inexperienced QBs (and especially inexperienced QBs on RPO-heavy teams) tend to always lock on to their first read. That was the argument for Pittman, and it appears to be correct, with an extra cherry on top being that Richardson also really impressed with his accuracy. In Week 1, Pittman caught 8 of 11 targets for 97 yards and a score. And his 28.2% target share ranked 12th-best among all WRs.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans

Collins appeared to be Houston’s clear WR1, and – at least in Week 1 – his volume was fantasy WR1-levels of good. He finished the week with 165 air yards (3rd-most), 11 targets (6th-most), and 19.7 XFP (8th-most). Granted, this was a game C.J. Stroud attempted 44 passes, Robert Woods saw terrific usage as well (10 targets), and Collins' results (6-80-0) weren’t quite as good as his volume. But this is an encouraging sign for a player I was rarely ever drafting.

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Addison (62% route share) played behind K.J. Osborn (85%) in his NFL debut. But a 62% route share isn’t terrible, and I have to imagine that number continues to climb, and it’s only a matter of time before he supplants Osborn. Afterall, Justin Jefferson only played on 61% of the team’s snaps across his first two career games with the Vikings, before exploding from Week 3-on.

And more than anything, the biggest takeaway should be how good he looked, matching Osborn in target share (13.6%) on fewer routes, and almost tripling Osborn’s fantasy production (16.1 fantasy points to 6.1).

I still believe there’s a pretty good chance he could be a key starter or even a potential league-winner for you in the second-half.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans

Hopkins’ results were poor, in what might of been Ryan Tannehill’s worst performance since the Adam Gase days. But Hopkins’ usage was tremendous. He ranked 6th in air yards (139), 3rd in targets (13), and 4th in target share (38.2%). That’s easy WR1 usage. We’ll just have to see if this passing game can rebound for it to result in WR1 producton.

Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

All offseason I was begging you to draft Keenan Allen. And although the production really wasn’t there, the usage was great; basically exactly what we should have expected after Allen told us he’d be playing in the CeeDee Lamb-role in this Kellen Moore offense.

Including plays negated due to penalty, Keenan Allen earned 12 of 37 targets (32%), and he finished 5th among all WRs in XFP (22.9).

29. Other WRs Trending Down

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons / D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears

It is so hard to be a fantasy-relevant WR when your team is World War II-era levels of run-heavy and your QB can’t complete a 10+ yard throw to save his life.

I would be hitting the panic button on Drake London and D.J. Moore if I owned them. But definitely more so London than Moore – I’d bet Moore eventually finishes top-10 in target share, because he’s not going to be shadowed by Jaire Alexander every week.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Dallas Cowboys

You’re not dropping Cooks if you drafted him. But it’s pretty weird he had only a 72% route share, and that dropped to just 33% in 2WR sets. He still ran the 2nd-most routes on the team behind CeeDee Lamb (80%), and this was a weird game that was never competitive. But this is something we all should be monitoring next week.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks

I think Smith-Njigba is an elite talent — if he went to any of two dozen other teams, I might have promised you 100 catches and 1,100 yards this year.

But his Week 1 usage was a little worrisome… But only a little.

Right now, it seems HC Pete Carroll was true to his word – that Seattle would not increase their rate of 11 personnel (58% in Week 1, down from 63% in 2022), and that JSN would be the odd man out in those situations. Smith-Njigba’s route share of 62% ranked 78th of all WRs. And he ran zero routes in 2WR sets.

That’s not great, but I wouldn’t be panicking if you drafted him. Smith-Njigba still tied for the team-high in targets with 5, and D.K. Metcalf (83%) and Tyler Lockett (79%) were subbed out a bit more than I had anticipated. Smith-Njigba did enter into this game with a pretty bad wrist injury. And, remember, rookie WRs tend to start slow before breaking out in the second half of the year.

Right now I don’t see JSN being a dependable every-week starter for you in season-long leagues. At least not until something changes. But it could, and it probably should.

Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills

Davis was one of the WRs I was highest on heading into the season, and I can’t help but start to panic a little bit now. It’s not only that Davis ranked 84th in TPRR (0.10) and 64th in YPRR (0.82). More so, it’s that his head coach totally threw him under the bus after the game.

30. Players Who Are Droppable Based on Route Participation

• Ravens WR Rashod Bateman is legitimately droppable. Right now he’s just a part-time player, given his 57% route share.

• I could definitely see Chargers WR Quentin Johnston being a fantasy difference-maker in the second half, but I think for now he’s droppable in shallow leagues.

• The same thing goes for Broncos WR Marvin Mims, who ranked 8th on the team in routes run (in a game Jerry Jeudy didn’t play).

• Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow is an easy drop even in deep leagues (31% route share).

• Cardinals WR Rondale Moore is probably droppable. His 73% route share wasn’t bad at all, but his route share dropped to just 12.5 in 2WR sets. And, at the end of the day, he’s just a WR3 on a bad team.

Tight Ends

31. The TE position is always a wasteland after the top 2-3 “Oligarchs.” But it was especially barren in Week 1.

Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews – the top-2 TEs in fantasy – both didn’t play. And Dallas Goedert did play, but matched them both in fantasy points scored.

Only two TEs hit double-digit fantasy points in Week 1 – tied for the lowest amount in any week in at least a decade.

Believe it or not, the top-5 highest-scoring TEs this week – in half-point PPR leagues – were Hunter Henry, Hayden Hurst, Donald Parham, Blake Bell, and Harrison Bryant. Only one of these TEs was drafted as the TE1 on their own team. (lmao.)

There are not many key takeaways in terms of production, but there certainly are in terms of volume. The key metrics to me are snap share, route share, and target share.

32. Tight Ends Trending Up

Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans

Okonkwo scored 0.0 fantasy points in Week 1, but I left highly encouraged by his Week 1 usage. And his production was somewhat understandable in a worst-possible matchup against the Saints, and in a game Ryan Tannehill greatly struggled.

Okonkwo earned a 74% route share in Week 1 (12th-best), up from just 30% a season ago. If Okonkwo maintains his record-setting YPRR from 2022 and runs this many routes every week (29), we should expect 75.7 YPG (just 3.0 behind Kelce for the position-high). So, that’s just a glimpse at the upside he offers, even if it is a little unrealistic he gets there.

Rookie Tight Ends

It’s typically unwise to invest in rookie TEs in fantasy. But I’m very open to 2023’s rookie class being a rare exception.

Packers TE Luke Musgrave ranked 15th-best in both route share (70%) and target share (14.8%), and led the position in air yards (71). He caught 3 of 4 targets for 50 yards, but came dangerously close to adding another 11 fantasy points on this play.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid earned a 68% route share in Week 1 (17th-most), already above Dawson Knox’s 64%. He matched Gave Davis in target share (9.8%), catching all 4 of his targets for 26 yards.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta played on 83% of Detroit’s snaps (8th-most). He spent a lot of time blocking, earning a route share of just 50% (29th), but 44% of those routes came from the slot (most among all TEs). And he looked good in Week 1, catching all 5 of his targets for 39 yards

I’m not sure any of these TEs will ever be players you’re excited to start. But I am confident each of these three names will beat their ADP by season’s end.

Michael Mayer, meanwhile, barely played (24% route share).

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

Goedert scored 0.0 fantasy points on 1 target, but he had the best route participation of any TE on the week (87%, up form 76% a season ago. I wouldn’t worry about him.

Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals

In Week 1, Ertz ranked 2nd in route share (85%) and ranked 1st in targets (10). He not only led all TEs in XFP (19.7, +5.1 more than next closest), but he also ranked 4th among all players in XFP per route run (0.70).

He is definitely worth a roster spot in deeper leagues, and could easily be an every-week starter for you. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes as high as the TE6 by season’s end.

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Commanders

Thomas only ran a route on 67% of the team’s dropbacks (18th), but 42% of those routes came from the slot (2nd-most). He also did miss much of training camp coming back from injury. So there’s a decent chance his route share continues to climb.

In the meantime, his volume was stellar – he earned a team-high 8 targets. And although he only caught 4 for 43 yards, that was above both Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin. His 0.55 XFP per route run ranked 2nd among all TEs and tied with Ja’Marr Chase.

Given his Week 1 usage, his past success when healthy, and Eric Bienemy’s love of TEs, he’s a player I’ll be looking to add off waivers in all of my FFPC leagues.

Other

• Jaguars TE Evan Engram’s route share jumped from 74% in 2022 to 83% in Week 1 (4th-most). He ran 41% of his routes from the slot (3rd-most), and led all TEs in designed targets (2). Maybe this is a hot take, but I really wouldn’t be surprised if he out-scores Christian Kirk by season’s end. Last season, over Engram’s final 8 games (postseason included), he was Jacksonville’s WR1, leading with 66.8 YPG and 15.8 FPG.

• Bears TE Cole Kmet appears to have been a much better draft pick than I was giving him credit for. He earned a 100% snap share and an 81% route share in Week 1 (5th-most, up from 73%). He’s looking like a Bell Cow TE. The only thing holding him back is Justin Fields and this run-heavy offense.

• Texans TE Dalton Schultz’s route participation was very similar in Week 1 to what it was last season in Dallas. Although his 9.1% target share is a bit worrisome in a game C.J. Stroud attempted 44 passes, this is an encouraging sign for a player I was pretty low on in my rankings.

• Buccaneers TE Cade Otton appears to be the team’s clear TE1, earning a 97% snap share and a 76% route share (10th-best, up from 56% a season ago).

• Kylen Granson was the Colts’ clear TE1, earning a 70% route share (15th-best) and a 15.4% target share (3rd-most on the team).

• Dolphins TE Durham Smythe really could be a thing. I’m not sure he’s any good, but he had the best usage of any TE on the week – 100% snap share, 85% route share, 7 targets (2nd-most on the team) – and this is looking like one of the best offenses in football. Mike Gesicki played on only 59% of Miami’s passing plays last year, and had some DFS-winning weeks last year.

33. Tight Ends Trending Down

• Oh boy, do I need to take the L on Chargers TE Gerald Everett. Based on his 45% route share and the fact that Donald Parham matched him targets (3), he’s an easy drop.

• Browns TE David Njoku’s route share fell from 73% in 2023, to 63% in Week 1. I have a hard time imagining he’ll pay off his TE8 ADP (NFL.com) with that sort of usage.

• Bengals TE Irv Smith Jr. saw better usage than he did a season ago, but a 65% route share (20th-most) probably isn’t enough for him to be worth carrying on your bench.

34. Wait and see…

• Giants TE Darren Waller earned only a 52% route share, but he also came into the game banged up, and this was also a mega-blowout that stopped being competitive from the start.

• Rams TE Tyler Higbee didn’t get the target-volume we were all anticipating. He did see a nice little bump in route share (74%, up from 64% a season ago). But it wasn’t quite as much as I was expecting.

• Panthers TE Hayden Hurst’s volume and production was great in Week 1, but his 64% route share was a little disappointing (21st-most).

• The exact same thing can be said of Patriots TE Hunter Henry, who ran a route on only 57% of the team’s dropbacks (25th-most), but did also lead all TEs in receiving yards (56).

• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson’s route share was nowhere near what those drafting him must have hoped it would be (56%, 26th-most), but it was a weird game that was never competitive, and he did finish 2nd among all TEs in target share (24.0%).

Injuries

35. Injuries we’re monitoring:

• Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is out for the year with a torn Achilles.

• Colts QB Anthony Richardson missed a few snaps in Week 1, but is “fine” according to HC Shane Steichen.

• Chargers RB Austin Ekeler may or may not have suffered a high ankle sprain. Joshua Kelley is a must-start top-15 fantasy RB until Ekeler returns.

• Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins is out for the year with a torn Achilles.

• Colts RB Evan Hull was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury. He will be out for at least 4 games.

• Packers RB Aaron Jones suffered a hamstring injury late in Week 1, but should be fine for Week 2.

• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers suffered a head injury late in Week 1, and is currently in the concussion protocol.

• Steelers WR Diontae Johnson suffered a hamstring injury and is expected to be sidelined for several weeks.

• Broncos TE Greg Dulcich suffered a hamstring injury in Week 1, and is expected to miss multiple weeks.

• Seahawks OTs Abraham Lucas (knee) and Charles Cross (toe) left Week 1 and did not return. Seattle’s offense struggled mightily in their absence. On Tuesday, the Seahawks signed 41-year-old former Pro Bowl OT Jason Peters.