The Fantasy Points staff is covering every major skill player transaction from the 2023 off-season in our 2023 NFL Free Agency Tracker articles. We broke down all the important free agency signings and trades from a fantasy perspective in articles sorted by position. The articles are ordered by players changing teams ("New Homes") and by players sticking with their 2022 teams ("Staying Put"). The players are also ordered by their potential fantasy impact for the 2023 season in each section. Be sure to also check out Graham Barfield’s “Fantasy Fallout” pieces on the biggest transactions of the off-season.
We’ll also be constantly updating our Best Ball rankings if you’re looking to get an early start to draft season with our friends over at Underdog Fantasy (Promo code: FANTASYPTS). New signups to Underdog get both a deposit match of up to $100 and a Fantasy Points Standard subscription for just $5.
NOTE: Players are loosely ranked based on talent, age, plus previous and expected future fantasy relevance.
New Homes
D.J. Moore (Chi, 26) — The Bears acquired Moore as one of the pieces of a blockbuster deal that sent the #1 overall pick from Chicago to Carolina.
Fantasy Points: GM Ryan Poles was adamant the Bears would stick with Justin Fields at quarterback this off-season, and he stuck to his word when he shipped the top overall pick to the Panthers on March 10. Chicago received a pair of first-round and a pair of second-round picks over the next three years, and Poles also picked up a ready-made #1 WR in Moore for his emerging third-year quarterback. Moore agreed to a four-year contract extension with Carolina last March, which means the Bears have control of him through the 2025 season. He’s teased with high-end fantasy traits in his first five seasons, but he’s fallen short of expectations because of his near league-worst QB play. Moore is coming off the worst fantasy season since his rookie season after topping 1100+ receiving yards in 2019-21. The season started with some optimism after Carolina traded for Baker Mayfield, but he wasn’t worthy of lineup consideration until Sam Darnold took over the offense in late November. Moore posted 63/888/7 receiving (14.1 YPR) on 118 targets (30.2% share) to finish as the WR34 with 11.7 FPG. He played on 96% of the snaps and ran 510 routes (30.0 per game) in 17 contests.
Moore instantly becomes Fields’ top weapon but he goes from a Carolina offense that attempted the fourth-fewest passes (457) to the only offense that failed to reach 400+ passes — the Bears recorded just 377 attempts. Chicago easily finished with the lowest pass rate at 43.8% last season. The Bears will take a more aggressive approach through the air this season, especially with a talent like Moore added to the mix, but OC Luke Getsy isn’t going to completely change the offense with one of the league’s most dynamic runners at quarterback. Moore went from one low-volume passing attack to another, and he’s in a receiving corps where he’ll struggle to match his 27% target share since 2019. Terrace Marshall finished second in targets for the Panthers last season, a mere 71 targets behind Moore with 47. Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet aren’t going to challenge Moore as Chicago’s top target, but it’s a better receiving corps than he ever had behind him in Carolina. Fields is the best quarterback Moore has played with since Cam Newton started to break down in 2018-19, but he’s far from a finished product after making some strides in his second season. Moore will be a volatile weekly option as he rides the ebbs and flows of an inaccurate QB — only Zach Wilson and Baker had worse completion percentages than his 60.4% — but Fields’ second-reaction ability will create more explosive downfield opportunities for Moore. I don’t see him breaking through as a WR1 unless Fields takes a massive leap in Year 3, which makes his current ADP (51, WR25) a tad rich for a player who could be inconsistent in a low-volume attack led by a scattershot QB.
Check out Graham Barfield’s Fantasy Fallout piece for more about Moore’s trade to the Bears.
Brandin Cooks (Dal, 29) — The Cowboys acquired Cooks in exchange for a 2023 fifth-round pick and a 2024 sixth-round pick.
Fantasy Points: Cooks signed a two-year contract extension with $36 million guaranteed last April, and he threw a temper tantrum in the middle of last season when the Texans couldn’t move that contract at the trade deadline. He apparently didn’t get the memo that the Texans had the NFL’s worst roster entering 2022, and he reiterated at the end of last season that he doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild. The Texans granted him his wish by shipping him to a Dallas squad that’s lacking in receiving weapons behind CeeDee Lamb. Cooks posted 57/699/3 receiving (12.3 YPR) on 93 targets (21% share) to finish as the WR38 with 11.2 FPG. He played on 81.2% of the snaps and ran 427 routes (32.8 per game) in 13 contests, missing four games for a calf injury and team disciplinary reasons. Cooks had quietly been a WR2 option in seven of his first eight seasons before 2022, averaging between 13.8-15.8 FPG in each of those top-24 campaigns. Cook is entering his 10th year, but he’ll still be in his 20s when the season begins, and he owns a career average of 1.81 yards per route run, including a 1.90 YPRR average in his three seasons with the Texans.
Cooks is still an attractive #2 WR option and he could step into a solid target share with Dalton Schultz potentially out of the mix and Michael Gallup struggling in his first season back from his ACL injury. Cooks’ aDOT dipped below 12 yards in each of the last two seasons for the first time since his rookie year in 2014, but he should get more downfield opportunities with the chance to reach 100+ targets in the league’s second-best scoring offense (26.0 PPF) over the last four years. Cooks could be starting to fall off a cliff but a move from one of the league’s worst offenses to one of the best offenses could be just what his career needs as he enters his 30s this season. Cooks isn’t going to receive the type of buzz that Allen Robinson received last year when he moved from the awful Bears to the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, but Cooks actually could pay off this move and his ADP (99, WR48) isn’t prohibitive at all.
Jakobi Meyers (LV, 26) — Meyers and the Raiders agreed to terms on a three-year, $33 million deal with $21 million guaranteed (per Ian Rapoport).
Fantasy Points: Josh McDaniels continued to load up on his former Patriots players in free agency by signing Meyers a day after inking Jimmy Garoppolo. Meyers and Jimmy G never actually played together in New England but they have familiarity with McDaniels’ offense. Meyers first turned heads as an undrafted free agent in the 2019 preseason before leading New England’s passing attack for the last three years as Julian Edelman’s slot replacement. He had a devil of a time finding the end zone to start his career, setting an NFL record for the most receiving yards (1560) and receptions (134) before his first touchdown in Week 10 of 2021. Meyers’ positive touchdown regression finally came in his fourth season with six scores on 96 targets in 14 games after scoring twice on his first 248 targets in 46 games in 2019-21. In 2022, he posted 67/804/6 receiving (12.0 YPR) on 96 targets (22.2% share) to finish as the WR28 with 13.0 FPG. He played on 79% of the snaps and ran 423 routes (30.2 per game) in 14 contests, missing three games for concussion, shoulder, and knee issues. Meyers has run 64.8% of his routes from the slot to open his career, and he’s established himself as a quarterback’s best friend in the middle of the field. He's an adept route runner who catches everything, with a career catch rate of 68.3% and a drop rate of just 4.1%. Meyers is also more of an intermediate threat than an underneath option, tying Randall Cobb for the deepest aDOT (10.2 yards) among the 18 WRs who saw 30+ targets and a slot rate of 63% or higher. He’s a bit underwhelming after the catch, with a career average of 3.5 YAC, but that hasn’t prevented him from back-to-back WR3 finishes.
Meyers established himself as a reliable WR3 in PPR formats by averaging 4.8 catches and 7.2 targets per game over the last two seasons. He could be hard-pressed to keep up those averages playing in an offense with a ball hog like Davante Adams, who is averaging 10.7 targets per game over his last five seasons, which includes 10.6 targets per game in his first year with the Raiders. Las Vegas traded Darren Waller shortly after signing Meyers, and Renfrow could be the next player to clear up some targets in the middle of the field for Meyers. He should be a great fit with Jimmy G, who owned an NFL-best passer rating of 133.8 on throws of 10-19 yards. He still lost some steam by signing with a team that already has Adams, and his ADP (94, WR47) will dip some since he’s unlikely to be a fantasy game-changer in 2023.
Fantasy Points Data: Meyers averaged 2.08 yards per route run, which ranked 19th among WRs with 300+ routes in YPRR, just behind Ja'Marr Chase and DeAndre Hopkins…He had a higher YPRR on the outside (2.53 yards) than in the slot (1.79) despite running 69% of his routes in the slot. That was the sixth-best YPRR on the outside among players with at least 100 outside routes run.
Check out Graham Barfield’s Fantasy Fallout piece for more about the Raiders’ offense with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Elijah Moore (Cle, 23) — The Browns acquired Moore and the 74th overall pick from the Jets for the 42nd overall pick (per Ian Rapoport).
Fantasy Points: Moore’s relationship with the Jets disintegrated in 2022 after a promising start to his career after they selected him 34th overall in 2021. He collected 80/984/6 receiving on 142 targets in 27 games to open his career, which included a six-game heater as a rookie when he posted 34/459/5 receiving for 18.9 FPG. Moore owns a dreadful 56.3% catch rate and is averaging just 1.23 yards per route run to open his career, but he was saddled with near league-worst quarterback play. Deshaun Watson stands to be a significant upgrade over Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco this season. Watson struggled mightily in his return to football after a 23-month absence, completing just 58.2% of his passes and averaging just 6.5 YPA. He previously had a track record of top-five quarterback play in his first four seasons, completing 67.8% of his passes and averaging 8.3 YPA in 2017-20. Cleveland’s trade for Moore is a sign that Kevin Stefanski will start catering the offense more to Watson than to Nick Chubb and the running game. Amari Cooper is the clear top target in Cleveland but the #2 spot could be up for grabs on a weekly basis between David Njoku, Moore, and Donovan Peoples-Jones. Moore is still incredibly young at 23 years old entering his third season, and he already showed us top-eight fantasy play for six weeks as a rookie. Moore’s ADP (113, 54) has plummeted about 50 spots from last summer, and I’ll be betting on him at that price, especially if there are more indications that Cleveland’s offense could open up in Year Two with Watson.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE, 26) — Smith-Schuster and the Patriots reached terms on a three-year, $33 million contract.
Fantasy Points: Jakobi Meyers left New England for Las Vegas on a three-year, $33 million contract to open free agency, and the Patriots turned around and offered the same deal to his replacement. Smith-Schuster’s career was moving in the wrong direction after becoming the youngest receiver to reach 2500 receiving yards. It once looked like he might be one of the highest-paid receivers after his first two seasons, but he settled for one-year deals in each of the last two off-seasons. Smith-Schuster stopped the negative momentum with a solid first season playing with the NFL’s best QB Patrick Mahomes. He posted 78/933/3 receiving (12.0 YPR) on 101 targets (17.4% share) to finish as the WR35 with 11.7 FPG. He played on 71% of the snaps and ran 528 routes (33.0 per game) in 16 contests, missing a game for a concussion. JuJu was a much more efficient receiver with Mahomes than he was with a dead-armed Ben Roethlisberger in 2021-22. His YPR (12.0>8.6), yards per target (9.2>6.2), YAC (5.9>4.2), and yards per route run (1.77>1.22) all dramatically improved in 2022 compared to 2020-21. Smith-Schuster has posted 800+ yards in each of the four seasons when he’s played 14+ games, but he has durability concerns with multiple concussion, knee, and shoulder issues through his first six seasons.
Smith-Schuster moved around the formation more in Kansas City, running 42.6% of his routes from the slot — his previous career low was 57.8% as a rookie in 2017. With DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, and Kendrick Bourne manning the perimeter, JuJu figures to go back to playing more in the slot in Meyers’ old role, who ran 69.5% of his routes from inside in 2022. Meyers established himself as a reliable WR3 in PPR formats by averaging 4.8 catches and 7.2 targets per game over the last two seasons, and Smith-Schuster is the favorite to lead the Patriots in targets if he’s able to stay healthy. The problem is JuJu isn’t nearly as dynamic an athlete as Meyers at this stage of his career with his efficiency likely to decline with a switch from Mahomes to Mac Jones at quarterback. The Patriots also signed Mike Gesicki, who also profiles best as a slot receiver. Smith-Schuster is fine at his current ADP (110, WR51) as a low-upside, high-floor pick, but I’ll be passing on him if it rises into the top-100 picks.
Fantasy Points Data: Over 50% of JuJu’s targets came on hitches or out routes. No other route made up over 10% of his targeted routes…He averaged 2.3 yards per route run against zone coverage compared to 1.5 YPRR versus man coverage.
Odell Beckham (Bal, 30) — Beckham and the Ravens came to terms on a one-year deal with $15 million guaranteed and worth up to $18 million in incentives (per Ian Rapoport).
Fantasy Points: The Ravens shockingly handed OBJ $15 million in guaranteed money despite his two ACL tears since October 2020, which limited the 30-year-old WR to 21 games over the last three seasons. The move is a peace offering to the still unsigned Lamar Jackson and it upgrades the league’s worst WR corps even if the franchise has to go in a different direction at quarterback in 2023. Beckham tore his ACL in Los Angeles’ Super Bowl LVI victory in February 2022, and he ended up never finding a home at the end of last season. He tore the same ACL in 2020, and it took him nearly 11 months to return to action, and he’ll now be 19 months removed from surgery when he returns to game action this fall. Odell’s Cleveland tenure wasn’t exactly smooth, eclipsing 20+ FP just three times in 28 games. He scored just seven TDs while his FPG dropped from 20.4 in New York to just 11.1 in Cleveland, and his relationship with Baker Mayfield and the Browns was eventually beyond repair in the middle of the 2021 season. The Rams acquired Beckham for their title run and he finally saw his career trajectory turn around, averaging 4.2 catches, 52.3 receiving yards, and 6.5 targets per game in his final 11 contests with the Rams. He also scored seven TDs in that span, which was the same number of TDs he scored in 28 games with the Browns.
Time will tell if OBJ has lost a step after his second ACL surgery, but the Ravens at least aren’t locked into a long-term contract if he isn’t the same player we saw suit up for the Rams in 2021. OBJ previously worked with new OC Todd Monken for a season with the Browns in 2019, which was the last time he eclipsed 70+ receptions and 1000+ receiving yards. He’ll immediately jump to the top of Baltimore’s WR corps ahead of the snake-bitten Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor, and he’ll slide into the #2 receiver spot behind Mark Andrews. Of course, the big question is who will play quarterback for the Ravens this season, but Baltimore is at least expected to be more aggressive through the air with Monken taking over play calling. Greg Roman’s offenses ranked in the bottom six in passing YPG in three of four seasons, and Monken is an Air Raid guy at heart but has shown flexibility to adapt to his personnel. Marquise Brown averaged 7.7 targets per game, 4.7 catches/game, and 55.5 receiving YPG with 14 scores in his final two seasons with the Ravens as a running mate next to Andrews. OBJ landed in a spot where he could potentially sneak into WR3 consideration this season if everything breaks right. He still shouldn’t be considered until around 100+ picks into fantasy drafts because of the combination of age and recent injury history in what will likely be a low-volume passing attack.
Adam Thielen (Car, 33) — Thielen landed a three-year, $25 million contract from the Panthers with $14 million guaranteed.
Fantasy Points: Thielen will venture outside of the state of Minnesota for the first time in his life after the Vikings released him after nine productive seasons — he grew up there and played at Minnesota State, as well. He’s coming off his first fully healthy campaign since he opened his career with five straight 16-game seasons, but his play continued to tail off at 32 years old. Thielen posted 70/716/6 receiving (10.2 YPR) on 109 targets (16.2% share) to finish as the WR44 with 10.6 FPG. He played on 89% of the snaps and ran 711 routes (41.8 per game) in 17 contests. Thielen actually ran the NFL’s second-most routes behind only his teammate, Justin Jefferson, but he finished with a career-worst 1.08 yards per route run. His YPRR has fallen for six straight seasons (2.15>2.10>2.08>1.86>1.63>1.08) heading into his 10th campaign, and he hasn’t reached 1000+ receiving yards since 2018. Thielen is still a savvy route runner near the end zone, tying for the third-most red-zone receptions with 14 and scoring five times on 21 targets from inside the 20-yard line. He owns the fourth-most TD receptions since 2018 with 45, and he’ll need to continue to be a red-zone factor to have a chance to finish as a WR3 or better. Thielen landed in a perfect spot to potentially capture a team-high target share from whomever they select with the first overall pick, but the Panthers added some competition by signing D.J. Chark later in free agency. Thielen is a bargain at his current rock-bottom ADP (174, WR76) but there could be a point later this spring/summer when his price becomes too high for being the de facto #1 WR in Carolina.
D.J. Chark (Car, 26) — Chark and the Lions reached terms on a one-year contract.
Fantasy Points: The Panthers continued to rebuild their WR corps after trading away D.J. Moore as part of their package for the #1 overall pick, pairing Chark with Adam Thielen in free agency. Chark once again struggled to stay healthy — he’s missed 19 games in the last two seasons — but he made a difference for Detroit’s offense when he was available. He ripped off three different 90+ yard performances in Weeks 13-16 after missing six contests for yet another ankle injury in Weeks 4-10. He also had five different performances with 18 or fewer yards Chark posted 30/502/3 receiving (16.7 YPR) on 52 targets (13.8% share) to finish as the WR56 with 8.9 FPG. He played on 70% of the snaps and ran 341 routes (31.0 per game) in 11 contests. Chark is averaging 17.7 YPR with an aDOT of 16.2 yards in his last 14 healthy games over the last two seasons. He makes more of an on-field impact than a fantasy impact as a vertical threat on the perimeter and on deep in-breaking routes. Jared Goff averaged 264.5 passing YPG with 21 TDs and two INTs in 11 games with Chark compared to 254.8 passing YPG with eight TDs and five INTs in six games without Chark. Durability concerns limited Chark to another short-term deal but he brings ideal size and speed to the perimeter for whomever the Panthers select with the top overall pick. Adam Thielen is the slight favorite to lead the Panthers in targets next season, but Chark will see more valuable downfield targets and offers more fantasy upside. It’s tough to get too excited about Chark with his durability concerns while playing with a rookie QB, but at least his current ADP (168, WR73) isn’t too prohibitive.
Fantasy Points Data: Chark averaged 2.3 yards per route run against man coverage and he had the best passer rating when targeted in man coverage at 145.4…He also had the fourth-best passer rating when targeted on go routes among WRs with 10+ go route targets.
Allen Lazard (NYJ, 27) — Lazard and the Packers agreed to terms on a four-year, $44 million deal with $22 million guaranteed (per Jordan Schultz).
Fantasy Points: Lazard was the first player from Aaron Rodgers’ four-player wish list to sign with the Jets. The Packers previously gave him a vote of confidence last off-season by trading away Davante Adams to effectively elevate him to the #1 receiver spot for Rodgers. He responded with a career-best campaign in his fifth season, but he came nowhere close to filling the void left behind by Adams as the Packers' passing attack took a major step back. Lazard posted 60/788/6 receiving (13.1 YPR) on 100 targets (21.1% share) to finish as the WR36 with 11.7 FPG. He played on 89% of the snaps and ran 488 routes (32.5 per game) in 15 contests, missing two games for ankle and shoulder injuries. Lazard owns a career 65.3% catch rate even with an aDOT of 12.3 yards, and he’s averaged 1.61 yards per route run or better in three of his last four seasons. His huge frame (6’5”, 227 pounds) not only made him valuable as a red-zone target with 14 TDs the last two seasons but also in the running game, which will keep him on the field in most situations. Lazard will be a direct replacement for Corey Davis, who is likely to be moved after all the dust settles in New York. Lazard currently projects to be in a battle for the #2 WR duties behind Garrett Wilson, and he has a built-in rapport from working with Rodgers the last five seasons. Lazard’s ADP (141, WR62) is likely to rise a bit since he’ll once again be attached to Rodgers, but the Jets could make a few more moves to change things in the next week or two.
Fantasy Points Data: Lazard averaged 2.28 yards per route run in the slot compared to 1.7 YPRR on the outside…He became much more of a deep target in 2022 with the seventh-highest aDOT among WRs with at least 100 targets.
Robert Woods (Hou, 31) — Woods and the Texans agreed to terms on a two-year, $15.3 million contract with $10 million guaranteed.
Fantasy Points: Woods had been a remarkably consistent player over the last half-decade, averaging at least 13.6 FPG in every season since 2017, but that streak came to a screeching halt in his first year with the Titans. Woods had a strong 2021 campaign with the Rams cut short by an ACL tear in practice in mid-November, and he took a significant step backward in his first season post-injury in one of the league’s worst passing attacks. He posted 53/527/2 receiving (9.9 YPR) on 91 targets (20.7% share) for 6.9 FPG while playing on 78% of the snaps and running 464 routes (27.3 per game) in 17 contests. Woods actually led Tennessee’s meager passing attack in receptions and receiving yards, but he still finished with 20.5 fewer FP than he scored in just nine games with the Rams in 2021 (137.2>116.7). He previously averaged 1.60 yards per route run or better in six straight seasons before dipping to 1.14 YPRR last season.
Woods seemed to be past the stage of his career when he was at least a co-lead receiver with the likes of Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp in 2017-20, but he could be the #1 receiver for the quarterback the Texans select at No. 2 overall. The addition of Woods signaled the end of Cooks’ tenure in Houston and the Texans own a thin receiving corps behind him with just Nico Collins and John Metchie currently in the mix — they’re strong candidates to draft a WR at #12, #33, or #65. Houston’s $10 million minimum commitment to Woods suggests they have a plan for him for the next season or two. He’s best suited to be a complementary receiver at this stage of his career, but he could be a major value at his current ADP (219, WR91) with a path to the most targets with the Texans.
Fantasy Points Data: Woods forced only 1 missed tackle all season for a 0.02 missed tackle per reception rate, which was the NFL’s worst rate.
Mecole Hardman (NYJ, 25) — Hardman and the Jets agreed to a one-year deal worth up to $6.5 million (per Tom Pelissero).
Fantasy Points: Aaron Rodgers’ future receiving corps continues to take shape with the Jets adding Hardman and subtracting Elijah Moore. Hardman has been a slight disappointment through four seasons based on his late second-round draft capital and ambitious fantasy expectations as a piece of Kansas City’s top-ranked offensive attack. He was set up for a breakout as Tyreek Hill’s potential replacement, but he remained a secondary option for Patrick Mahomes before a groin injury sacked him after eight games. Hardman posted 25/297 receiving (11.9 YPR) on 34 targets (11% share) to finish as the WR32 with 11.7 FPG — he added two short rushing TDs to help his cause. He played on 53% of the snaps and ran 200 routes (25.0 per game) in eight contests. Hardman tried to return to action in the AFC Championship Game but aggravated his groin injury, which he had surgery to correct after Kansas City’s Super Bowl victory. He hasn’t developed into a downfield threat with a career aDOT of 8.9 yards, but he’s averaging 8.4 YAC mostly as a slot option where he’s run 52.3% of his routes. Hardman hasn’t quite been the dynamic playmaker that many expected him to become when he came out of Georgia in 2019, but he’ll get an opportunity to be the #3 option for Rodgers behind Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Hardman is once again unlikely to command volume in his new locale, which will make him a volatile fantasy. At least should have some spike weeks and his ADP (200, WR87) finally isn’t prohibitive like it has been during his time with the Chiefs.
Fantasy Points Data: Hardman’s targets per route run fell from 0.19 in 2021 to 0.17 in 2022 despite the WR room opening up…Over 23% of his targets came on designed plays in each of the last two seasons…Averaged 1.03 yards per route run when lined up out wide, which ranked 94th among WRs with at least 75 routes run on the outside.
Richie James (KC, 27) — James and the Chiefs agreed to terms on a contract.
Fantasy Points: The defending Super Bowl champs made a savvy move to land the underrated James, who seemingly excels when he’s been given playing opportunities. He hasn’t been given many chances to show what he can do as a receiver since he came into the league as a 2018 seventh-round pick out of Middle Tennessee State. James needed ACL injuries to both Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson to jump into a full-time role last season. He quickly became Daniel Jones’ go-to receiver with 37/378/4 receiving in seven games in Weeks 11-17 to rank as the WR22 (14.1 FPG) in that span. Overall, James posted 57/569/4 receiving (10.0 YPR) on 70 targets (17.3% share) to finish as the WR66 with 8.0 FPG. He played on 52% of the snaps and ran 344 routes (22.9 per game) in 15 contests on his way to leading all WRs with an 81.4% catch rate. James missed the entire 2021 season for a knee injury but owns a career 1.58 yards per route run average with 95/1258/7 receiving on just 794 career routes. James currently slots in as the team’s #4 WR and he’ll serve as insurance if Skyy Moore isn’t ready to become a full-time player and if Kadarius Toney continues to struggle with injuries. James is unlikely to be fantasy relevant to open the season, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s a waiver wire darling at some point if he steps into a starter’s role, just like he did with the Giants last season.
Marvin Jones (Det, 33) — Jones inked a one-year, $3 million contract with the Lions.
Fantasy Points: Jones is headed back to the Motor City after a two-year detour in Jacksonville. Jones is still chugging along entering his 12th NFL season as a former fifth-round pick by the Bengals back in 2012. He took a small step back last season with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram entering the picture in Jacksonville, which ended a streak of 700+ yards in the last seven seasons when he played at least 13 games. Jones posted 46/529/3 receiving (11.5 YPR) on 81 targets (14.7% share) to finish as the WR73 with 7.3 FPG. He played on 66% of the snaps and ran 474 routes (29.6 per game) in 16 contests, missing a game for a knee issue. Jones’ YPR has fallen under 12.0 yards in back-to-back seasons after hitting 12.3+ YPR in seven straight seasons in 2013-20, but he’s still a downfield threat with an aDOT of 14.2 yards last season. He could fall off a cliff at any point if his age finally starts to catch up to him, but he still has a spot in the league as a top backup perimeter option. Jones will battle the likes of Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond for #3 WR snaps and targets behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. It’s looking like he’ll have a somewhat limited role in Detroit next season, but he could take on more responsibility if Williams isn’t ready to step into a significant role after playing just 78 snaps as a rookie.
Parris Campbell (NYG, 26) — Campbell and the Giants reached terms on a one-year deal with $3 million guaranteed with incentives to take the deal to $6.7 million (per Mike Garafolo).
Fantasy Points: The Giants went bargain hunting and landed the Colts’ 2019 second-round pick to add to their collection of slot WRs. Campbell finally strung together a full season with good health, playing all 17 games in 2022 after appearing in just 15-of-49 contests in his first three seasons (30.6%). He went back to his slot-only receiver with an 82.0% slot rate, and the change resulted in his aDOT plummeting from 12.2 yards in 2019-21 to 6.5 yards in 2022 — he became an underneath target with Alec Pierce joining the roster. Campbell had three receptions of 20+ yards on 91 targets (3.3%) in 2022, compared to three receptions of 20+ yards on 20 targets (15%) in 2021. Campbell posted 63/623/3 receiving (9.9 YPR) on 91 targets (16.1% share) to finish as the WR57 with 8.8 FPG. He played on 85% of the snaps and ran 603 routes (35.5 per game) in 17 contests. Campbell caught 69.2% of his passes, and he reached 40+ receiving yards nine different times, but he needed major playing volume to get his numbers with his ugly 1.03 yards per route run average. Campbell settled for a one-year deal because of his early career injury issues, but he at least landed in a passing attack that’s sorting through who it’s top weapon will be this season. Campbell seems likely to do a little of everything for the Giants since they already have Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard working in the slot and Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins playing on the perimeter. Campbell could become one of the top threats in this passing game, but this WR corps seems destined to spread the targets around to all of its different parts.
Nelson Agholor (Bal, 30) — Agholor and the Ravens came to terms on a one-year, $3.25 million contract with an additional $3 million available in incentives (per Jordan Schultz).
Fantasy Points: The Ravens have a pressing need for WR help and signing Agholor is their big move of the off-season. No wonder Lamar Jackson is unhappy. The Patriots shockingly opened up the purse strings to bring in Agholor from Las Vegas on a two-year, $22 million deal in 2021. He predictably didn’t live up to the deal, falling short of 40+ receptions and 500+ receiving yards in each of his two years with the Patriots. He found himself as the #4 option on New England’s weak WR depth chart on his way to finishing with the worst numbers since his rookie season when the Eagles selected him 20th overall in 2015. Agholor posted 31/362/2 receiving (11.7 YPR) on 53 targets (11% share) for 4.8 FPG. He played on 49% of the snaps and ran 295 routes (18.5 per game) in 16 contests, missing a game for a hamstring issue. Agholor hasn’t quite lived up to his former draft status out of USC but he’s still put together a solid career. He can play both inside and outside and his aDOT has sat at 12.1+ yards or better in each of his last four seasons. Agholor’s versatility and speed make him a valuable veteran option but ideally in a top backup role. He was miscast as Baltimore’s #2 WR behind Rashod Bateman in an offense that also features Mark Andrews, but the Ravens added Odell Beckham to keep Agholor mostly off of the fantasy radar.
Mack Hollins (Atl, 29) — Hollins and the Falcons agreed to terms on a one-year,
Fantasy Points: Hollins came out of nowhere to become Derek Carr’s #2 receiver behind Davante Adams thanks to Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller missing time and falling below expectations. Hollins posted 57/690/4 receiving (12.1 YPR) on 94 targets (16.8% share) to finish as the WR55 with 9.1 FPG. He played on 94% of the snaps and ran 605 routes (35.6 per game) in 17 contests. He nearly doubled up his career receptions (56), receiving yards (750), and receiving TDs (6) from his first 65 games in the NFL over five seasons, but Hollins needed major playing volume to get his numbers. He averaged just 1.14 yards per route run, which raised his career average to 1.05 YPRR. Hollins took a big step forward in his career but he’s still best suited to be a top backup. However, he found another spot where he could potentially be the #2 WR behind Drake London in Atlanta. The Falcons attempted the second-fewest passes per game (24.4), more than 10 attempts fewer than the Raiders (34.5), which will make it difficult for him to remain relevant. Barring an injury, London and Kyle Pitts project to be the only two fantasy-relevant targets playing with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
Noah Brown (Hou, 27) — Brown and the Texans agreed to terms on a one-year, $2.6 million deal.
Fantasy Points: Brown incrementally saw his opportunities grow in his first four seasons before his role exploded in his fifth season. He previously played a key role on Dallas’ special teams units, but the Cowboys needed him to take on a bigger role with Michael Gallup slow out of the gates from his ACL injury and Amari Cooper traded to Cleveland. Brown posted 43/555/3 receiving (12.9 YPR) on 73 targets (14.4% share) to finish as the WR74 with 7.2 FPG. He played on 75% of the snaps and ran 452 routes (28.3 per game) in 16 contests, missing a game for a foot issue. Brown more than doubled up his production from his first four seasons when he totaled 39/425/0 receiving on 66 targets and 444 routes in 2017-21 — he missed 2019 for a knee injury. He’ll look to keep his career momentum going in a wide-open competition for targets in a thin Houston receiving corps, which also added Robert Woods in early March. Brown will likely be off the fantasy radar to open the season in most formats, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he sneaks into waiver wire consideration if he can earn a full-time role as he did with Dallas in 2022.
Others Changing Teams
Braxton Berrios (Mia, 27) — The Dolphins scooped up Berrios on a one-year deal after the Jets released him to clear cap space. He’ll compete for snaps in the slot with Cedrick Wilson, who is coming off a disappointing first season with the Dolphins. Berrios averaged just .81 YPRR on 180 overall routes in 2022 and failed to reach 9+ FP in any game after hitting 10+ FP in his final three games in 2021.
Deonte Harty (Buf, 25) — Harty and the Bills reached terms on a two-year, $9.5 million deal with $5 million guaranteed. The 2019 All-Pro returner will look to bolster Buffalo’s special teams units after a foot injury ended his 2022 campaign after four games. Harty will also serve as a rotational deep threat as a top backup for Buffalo’s receiving corps after averaging 2.28 yards per route run on just 235 career routes in New Orleans. The Bills released Isaiah McKenzie to potentially boost Harty’s role next season, and GM Brandon Beane said Harty is both an outside and inside receiver.
Isaiah McKenzie (Ind, 28) — McKenzie and the Colts agreed to terms on a contract. The Bills handed him a new contract and a chance to make an impact as the team’s slot receiver, but he mostly disappointed on his way to 42/423/4 receiving (10.1 YPR) on 65 targets in 15 games. He’ll get a crack to replace Parris Campbell as Indy’s slot WR and he can contribute as a returner.
Trent Sherfield (Buf, 27) — Sherfield and the Bills came to terms on a one-year contract. He’s coming off by far the best season of his career with 30/417/2 receiving on 51 targets while playing 58% of the snaps for the Dolphins. He averaged 13.9 YPR but just .95 yards per route run while running 51.0% of his routes from the slot. He’ll push second-year WR Khalil Shakir for slot duties and he brings positional versatility to the WR room like Deonte Harty.
Marquez Callaway (Den, 25) — Callaway signed a one-year deal with the Saints, which reunites him with Sean Payton. Callaway posted 46/698/6 receiving on 84 targets and a 76% snap share in Payton’s final season with Michael Thomas going down in 2020. He saw his role minimized with Payton gone last season, even with Thomas missing 14 games, posting just 16/158/1 receiving on 32 targets and a 45% snap share. Callaway is currently a depth option for Payton but the Broncos are reportedly shopping both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. Tim Patrick (ACL) and K.J. Hamler (torn pec) are also coming back from major injuries so there’s a chance Callaway plays a bigger role than anticipated.
Zach Pascal (Ari, 28) — Pascal and the Cardinals agreed to terms on a two-year contract. New HC Jonathan Gannon is familiar with the former Eagles WR, who will challenge Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch for playing time out of the slot. He previously notched 40+ receptions, 600+ receiving yards, and 5+ TDs in 2019-20. He played 74% of the snaps or more in his final three seasons with the Colts (2019-21) before settling into a backup role with the Eagles last season.
Marquise Goodwin (Cle, 32) — Goodwin and the Browns came to an agreement on a one-year deal. The Olympic athlete will serve as a situational deep threat and depth piece for Deshaun Watson. He’s logged 300+ receiving yards in five of his last six seasons, including 27/387/4 receiving on 42 targets in 13 games last season.
Bryan Edwards (NO, 24) — Edwards and the Saints agreed to terms on a deal. The new Raiders regime traded their 2020 third-round pick to the Falcons last spring, and he managed just three catches on 91 snaps in seven games with the Falcons before Atlanta released him in late November. He’ll try to get his career on track by reuniting with Derek Carr, and he’ll be in a battle to make the roster as a depth perimeter option.
Brandon Powell (Min, 26) — Powell and the Vikings agreed to terms on a one-year deal. He’ll reunite with his old Rams OC Kevin O’Connell but most of his contributions are likely to come on special teams. He did have a career-high 41 touches last season with the Rams going deep into their depth chart, and O’Connell will likely use him primarily as a gadget player this season.
Jeff Smith (NYG, 26) — Smith and the Giants agreed to terms on a one-year deal. He’ll compete for a roster spot for New York’s other team after racking 34 catches in his first four seasons with the Jets.
Steven Sims (Hou, 26) — Sims and the Texans agreed to a contract after spending the last two seasons in Pittsburgh — he posted 14/104 receiving in 12 games in 2022. He’ll provide depth behind Robert Woods and John Metchie this season, and he can help in the return game, as well.
Phillip Dorsett (LV, 30) — Dorsett and the Raiders reached terms on a deal, and he’ll serve a situational deep threat with his 4.33-second speed.
Cam Sims (LV, 27) — Sims and the Raiders agreed to terms on a deal, which will take him away from Washington for the first time in his five-year career. He finished with an NFL-worst .50 yards per route run with just 8/89 receiving on 177 routes last season.
Staying Put
Michael Thomas (NO, 30) — Thomas and the Saints agreed to another restructured contract, this time on a one-year, $10 million deal worth up to $15 million in incentives (per Adam Schefter).
Fantasy Points: It looked like Thomas and the Saints were ready to part ways when they initially restructured his contract in January. He apparently had a change of heart after the franchise signed Derek Carr in early March. Thomas is looking to get his once-burgeoning career back on track after playing just 10 games over the last three seasons because of ankle/foot injuries. Thomas got off to a promising start after missing the entire 2021 season, leading the league with three TD receptions in the first three weeks before yet another ankle injury ended his campaign early. He posted 16/171/3 receiving (10.7 YPR) on 22 targets (20.6% share) for 17.0 FPG, playing on 69% of the snaps and running 104 routes (34.7 per game) in his three contests. It seems like a decade ago when Thomas set an NFL record with 149 receptions playing with Drew Brees in 2019 — he also led the league in receiving yards that season with 1725 yards. Thomas will never get back to the level he attained when he posted 470/5512/32 receiving in his first four NFL seasons, but he briefly showed last season he can command targets at a high level. Thomas has been an all-or-nothing pick since he broke into the league with four top-8 WR finishes in 2016-19 before playing just 10 games in 2020-22. Thomas may not reach those same heights in his eighth season as he enters his 30s, but he has the potential to easily crush his ADP (125, WR58) for those willing to eat a pick if he can’t stay healthy again.
Darius Slayton (NYG, 26) — Slayton and the Giants agreed to terms on a two-year, $12 million contract.
Fantasy Points: The new Giants regime didn’t have a role for Slayton out of training camp, and he took a $1.5 million pay cut to remain with the team. HC Brian Daboll then made him a healthy scratch in the season opener against the Titans as Slayton found himself behind the likes of Kenny Golladay and David Sills to open the year. He eventually worked his way into a significant role by Week 4 because of injuries, trades, and his own strong play. Slayton posted 46/724/2 receiving (15.7 YPR) on 71 targets (16% share) to finish as the WR63 with 8.1 FPG. He played on 64.9% of the snaps and ran 405 routes (25.3 per game) in 16 contests. Slayton has quietly put together three campaigns with 46+ receptions and 724+ receiving yards in three of his first four seasons. He’s never been a major target earner with 5.2 targets per game average, but he’s made his looks count in his first four seasons. He finished with career-bests in YPR (15.7), yards per target (10.2), yards per route run (1.79), and aDOT (14.4) in 2022, which helped to improve his career marks in those same categories (15.0, 8.3, 1.43, and 13.7). Slayton and Daniel Jones have developed a strong rapport since coming into the league together in 2019, but it’s going to be difficult to stand out in this WR corps that’s loaded with a bunch of #3 WR types.
Sterling Shepard (NYG, 30) — The Giants and Shepard agreed to a one-year, $1.2 million deal with an additional $38K for each game that he’s active (per Field Yates).
Fantasy Points: Shepard has been a vital part of New York’s passing attack since he broke into the league in 2016 with Eli Manning, but injuries have derailed his career in recent seasons. He’s missed exactly half of his games over the last four years (34 of 68) after suffering a pair of devastating leg injuries to his Achilles and ACL the last two seasons. Shepard got off to a strong start as Daniel Jones’ clear top target, posting 13/154/1 receiving (11.8 YPR) on 24 targets (32% share) for 11.5 FPG while playing on 81% of the snaps and running 99 routes (33.0 per game) in three contests. Shepard’s slot successor Wan’Dale Robinson is also rehabbing from an ACL injury suffered in late November. Shepard could be the top slot option early in the season if Robinson’s rehab bleeds into the season, but that is assuming Shepard’s recovery remains on time this off-season. The Giants also signed Parris Campbell, who worked exclusively in the slot last season but he could play more all over the field with the Giants. Shepard has a knack for flashing at least a couple of times per season before injuries inevitably take him out.
Others Staying Put
Greg Dortch (Ari, 25) — The Cardinals retained exclusive rights free agent Dortch for the 2023 season. He owned just three career catches since breaking into the league as a UDFA out of Wake Forest in 2019, but he erupted for 54/467/2 receiving on 64 targets last season thanks to extended playing time with Rondale Moore, Marquise Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins. He’ll likely need Moore to miss time to have a chance at fantasy relevance, but he showed he can handle volume out of the slot with 4+ catches in each of the seven games when he played 55% of the snaps or more.
Ashton Dulin (Ind, 26) — Dulin and the Colts agreed to a two-year deal worth up to $9.2 in incentives. He posted 15/207/1 receiving on a 28% snap share in 12 games last season, and his biggest contributions have come on special teams in his first four seasons. He could compete for the #3 WR role behind Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, but the Colts will add more bodies at the position for the rookie QB they select at the top of the draft.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Ten, 26) — Westbrook-Ikhine re-signed with the Titans on a one-year deal after registering 25/397/3 receiving on 50 targets on a 75% snap share. He finished with an ugly .95 yards per route in Tennessee’s anemic passing attack, and he doesn’t hold much fantasy value even if he finds a starter’s role like he did last season.
Keelan Cole (LV, 30) — Cole re-signed with the Raiders on a one-year deal. He’s coming off a career-worst campaign despite Las Vegas’ WR room being wide open behind Davante Adams, posting just 10/141/1 receiving on a 40% snap share. Cole saw just 21 targets despite running 243 routes, which means he saw a target on just 8.6% of his routes, and he managed an absolutely pitiful .58 yards per route run. He’ll look to bounce back this year moving from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback.
Trent Taylor (Cin, 29) — The Bengals inked Taylor to a one-year deal to be their primary punt returner. He’s posted just 8/103 receiving on 13 targets in 20 games with the Bengals over the last two seasons.
