With half of the year gone and NFL training camps right around the corner, we have been hard at work this offseason getting all of our research prepared for the upcoming season. This part of the summer is a great time to play all forms of fantasy football – especially Dynasty fantasy football. With NFL rosters taking shape, July is the time to put stamps on your favorite players and strategies for the long term.
The FFPC runs the best dynasty leagues with entry fees costing as little as $100 or up to $5,000. There are a variety of leagues you can play, from best ball to Superflex.
FFPC scoring is TE Premium, which is a fun and necessary quirk to help tight ends be fantasy-relevant long-term in dynasty.
I entered a Superflex + TE premium league with the following requirements/rules:
Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 Superflex, 1 K, and 1 D/ST
20 roster spots, 3 I.R. spots
Scoring is 4 points/pass TD, 1 PPR for RB/WR, 1.5 PPR for TE
Can not draft more than 3 QBs (but can roster more than 3 post-draft)
Full team
QB1 – Joe Burrow (Round 1)
QB2 – Kyler Murray (Round 3)
QB3 – Ryan Tannehill (Round 17)
RB1 – Aaron Jones (Round 9)
RB2 – Brian Robinson (Round 10)
RB3 – Khalil Herbert (Round 12)
RB4 – Jamaal Williams (Round 13)
RB5 – Jerome Ford (Round 14)
RB6 – Ty Chandler (Round 16)
RB7 – Gus Edwards (Round 19)
WR1 – Tee Higgins (Round 3)
WR2 – Deebo Samuel (Round 5)
WR3 – Christian Kirk (Round 9)
WR4 – Chris Godwin (Round 6)
WR5 – Marquise Brown (Round 7)
WR6 – John Metchie (Round 15)
TE1 – Kyle Pitts (Round 2)
TE2 – Michael Mayer (Round 11)
Picking from 4th overall
I got lucky and drew the 4th pick, which meant I was locking in one of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, or Joe Burrow as my QB1.
Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase did not factor in my decision because those four QBs have extremely high long-term ceilings at the premium position in this format.
I wanted Hurts the most, but was happy to land Burrow.
Unsurprisingly, the sharp draft room appropriately valued quarterbacks in this league. 10 of the first 12 picks of the draft were QBs. The only two non-QBs taken were Jefferson and Chase.
The Round 2-3 turn
The second round was a lot more RB/WR heavy. Only one QB (Anthony Richardson) was drafted between picks 13-20.
My second-round pick was a lot harder. I wanted Richardson, but he went two picks before my selection at 2.09. Daniel Jones was also a consideration – he’s still a little underrated in dynasty. I love Amon Ra St. Brown and Chris Olave, but St. Brown went right before me. And I thought I might have a chance at Olave in Round 3.
Ultimately, I took the first tight end off of the board in Kyle Pitts.
Pitts was going in the first round of TE premium dynasty startups last year and slid all of the way out of the top 20 players in this draft. The cheaper price is deserved, but not this cheap.
Pitts is by far and away the dynasty TE1 and is one of my favorite players to draft this year with Fantasy Groupthink out on him. After the WRs dried up a bit, I was happy to pivot to Pitts.
I’m not afraid to take on risk early in drafts at premium positions if there is an upside case, and my third-round pick was a true home run swing.
Kyler Murray has been discounted to a point where he is a value in all fantasy formats. There is certainly risk with Murray coming off an ACL tear while playing for a rebuilding team, but Murray is priced at his floor in dynasty right now. I took Murray at QB14.
Is there a chance he misses 10 games? Absolutely. However, I have no idea where this “rumor” of Kyler missing 2023 started.
About the only way I could see Arizona pulling the plug on Kyler in 2023 is if he suffers a setback or if the team starts the season 0-10.
Joe Burrow, Robert Griffin, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz all recently tore their ACLs, and all four of those QBs returned to play within 10 months of surgery. Burrow and RG3 had “worse” knee injuries than Murray.
Murray had his ACL repaired on January 3rd this year – putting his 10-month return window around Week 4-5 this season.
Kyler has finished as QB14, QB4, QB5, and QB12 by fantasy points per game in his career. I drafted him at QB14.
The downside risk is two-fold – 1) Kyler may never run like he used to, and 2) the Cardinals may no longer view him as their QB of the future. He has a lot left to prove. But for fantasy, the reward in Round 3 outweighed the risk.
Trade up!
Tee Higgins is someone I’ve been actively working to acquire in my dynasty leagues. Ja’Marr Chase is a superstar, but Higgins has been nothing but a strong fantasy back-end WR1.
Higgins slipped to a point where he was a massive value in my rankings, and I love the idea of stacking him with Burrow. So, I sent my upcoming 4th round pick (and two mid-round pick swaps) to jump up and take Higgins.
Over their 27 full games played together, Chase and Higgins have both produced as fantasy WR1s. Chase is a stronger mid-tier WR1, while Higgins has been a solid back-end WR1 and great WR2.
Keep in mind, Higgins dealt with a few injuries last year (concussion, ankle, hamstring) while Chase played through a brutal hip injury until he was forced to miss five games mid-season.
Higgins is priced at a slight injury discount right now.
Just 24 years old, Higgins is entering the final year of his rookie deal. The Bengals must find a way to keep Burrow, Chase, and Higgins – which won’t be easy.
Leaning into Zero-RB
After starting the draft with Burrow, Pitts, Murray, and Higgins – I was already thinking about going Zero-RB. There are just so few running backs that I feel comfortable investing heavily into, and this draft room went surprisingly heavy on the mid-round RBs. So I zigged while the room zagged and leaned all of the way into Zero-RB.
One of the core reasons why I went Zero-RB in this draft was because I felt strong at QB/TE with Burrow and Pitts. This is crucial. Zero-RB isn’t just about hammering WRs.
The best Zero-RB teams create positional leverage at QB and TE – not just at wide receiver. In dynasty, wide receivers are “safer” than running backs. But, because there are so many good receivers, you can find good players at good prices. That is not the case at QB and especially not true at TE. The dynasty tight-end market is incredibly fragmented and basically comes down to the eye of the beholder.
I’ve got a top-5 QB and TE for the next 6-8 years in Burrow and Pitts.
The RB room
I didn’t take my first running back until Round 9 and then used six of my final 11 picks on late-round RBs.
RB1 – Aaron Jones (Round 9)
RB2 – Brian Robinson (Round 10)
RB3 – Khalil Herbert (Round 12)
RB4 – Jamaal Williams (Round 13)
RB5 – Jerome Ford (Round 14)
RB6 – Ty Chandler (Round 16)
RB7 – Gus Edwards (Round 19)
Jones in Round 9 felt like a gift, given how heavy the room went on RBs in the mid-rounds.
The rest of this group is basically a bunch of under-valued two-down/goal-line options. I will really need one of Robinson or Herbert to pop as a RB2 for this team to work. Ford is likely a straight-up handcuff.
Favorite Pick
Michael Mayer is my dynasty TE9, but I got him at TE13. It seems like everyone is scared of the Raiders with Jimmy Garoppolo foot injury lingering, but this was such a tremendous value that I could not pass up.
