Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 15-8; Week 8: 1-3
Deon Jackson (IND) OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards
Jonathan Taylor has been ruled out once again this week, while long-time passing back Nyheim Hines has been traded to the Buffalo Bills. This leads us right back to Jackson, who helmed the backfield a few weeks ago when Hines suffered a nasty concussion-like injury against the Denver Broncos and looked very solid during that game and the next one against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
During these two games, Jackson averaged 12.5 carries a game for 52 yards, which is not too shabby for a player who had only seen a total of 15 carries the last two seasons! But the stat we’re focused on is his receiving yards, and he was VERY involved there, with 14 catches on 14 targets (cue eyes emojis) for 108 yards during those games.
This number being set at 22.5 is intriguing, because while the New England Patriots’ defense has been stingy to running backs this season, they actually allow the 10th most receiving yards to running backs per game this season. I expect Jackson to see a near 70% snap share in this game and get above this number.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards
On the other side of that game, Stevenson is a solid runback to take here. Outside of the Commanders and the Chiefs this season (neither of whom have great rushing offenses this year), teams have been gashing the Colts’ rushing defense, with them having given up nearly 200 yards on the ground to the Jaguars and Derrick Henry rumbling for over 100yards in both matchups he’s faced them as well. Stevenson has also hit the right side of this number lately, with 3 out of his last 4 games going over 70 yards.
There’s a wrinkle to consider here though, as the Patriots have major injury issues along their offensive line as well as reinforcements coming for the Colts. Both C David Andrews and OT Marcus Cannon will be out for this game for the Pats, and that doesn’t bode well.
When Andrews went down last week, the Patriots went on to allow a 38.6% pressure rate (not good folks) and struggled to generate rushing yards before contact. Isaiah Wynn, who is projected to start and fill in for Cannon this week, is tied for the league lead in penalties this season with 8. Facing DeForest Buckner and Yannick Ngakoue is not going to alleviate those issues.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
The Dolphins present an interesting matchup. They’re viewed as a very aggressive secondary that can get you into trouble easily, but they’ve been hurting in the secondary due to injuries this season. Byron Jones is still out, while Xavien Howard has been nicked up. That presents a perfect scenario for Mooney, who just got a new running mate as well in Chase Claypool.
The Dolphins run Cover 1 at a very high volume, and that is where a receiver like Mooney can burn a defensive back. Press coverage can allow a WR to easily get behind a corner via double moves or just the littlest shake, and with Mooney’s acceleration and quickness, I believe he can do just that. Miami also sports one of the league’s best run defenses, and this could force them into a pass-heavy script.
Mooney has hit this number easily in his last 5 games, and I also think that with the addition of Claypool, more attention will be taken off of Mooney, allowing him to get free a couple more times.
Kyle Pitts (ATL) OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
Pitts enjoyed a nice game last week, notching only his second game over 25 receiving yards this season with 5 catches on 9 targets for 80 yards and a score. It’s possible that Arthur Smith has also realized that this Falcons’ team inexplicably has a solid chance to win the division, and to do that he’ll inevitably target Pitts more often as he gives them a better chance to win with the ball in his hands.
The Chargers have been a bit of a tight end funnel this year, having allowed 60 or more receiving yards in every game but one so far. Atlanta now comes in as one of the best teams in the league against the spread, and this Chargers team is extremely banged up, missing multiple players this weekend. Pitts could have a solid game in a game script where the Chargers could be throwing a ton, which would make Atlanta have to throw as well if they get up early.
Final Thoughts
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.
