Welcome to a brand-new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 39-23-1; Wildcard: 2-3
Miles Sanders OVER 66.5 Rush Yards
Sanders is more than able to go over this number. In Week 14, he rushed for 144 yards on 17 carries against the Giants, and in total this season, he’s gone over this number in 9 games.
Sanders is a hard runner who, if given the lanes, can break off a big run at any given time. The Giants are one of the friendliest teams to opposing running backs, giving up the 4th-most rushing yards per game to backs at nearly 120 yards per game. Giant Killer Boston Scott will certainly be involved as well as Kenneth Gainwell, but Sanders will get the bulk of the carries.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
We’ve made this bet on this article quite a few times this season. It’s not a bet on Lawrence as much as it is a bet against the worst red zone passing defense in the NFL. The Chiefs allow 0.2 more passing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL, and 0.6 more fantasy points in the red zone to quarterbacks than any other team as well.
It definitely also helps that Lawrence passed for two touchdowns against Kansas City when these two teams met in Week 10, but the Jaguars can get to this number. Lawrence has gone over in 8 matchups this season, but he plays his best football when he needs to and Doug Pederson is a master at scheming around the red zone.
Dallas Goedert OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
Goedert hit this number in 7/11 healthy games this season, but that doesn’t tell the full story, as the Giants are also one of the worst teams against tight ends in the league this year. They rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position and just gave up 10 catches and 129 yards to TJ Hockenson in last week’s game.
Goedert is a key part of this offense who thrives against man coverage-heavy schemes like the Giants because it will leave the middle of the field open for him to work against the undersized Giants’ defense.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 6.0 Receptions
Not including the playoffs, the 49ers gave up the 8th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers in 2022, and they gave up the 7th-most fantasy points per game to the position as a whole. This contradicts their elite defense exterior and gives them more of a bend, don’t break mentality.
This works out great for Lamb, who has averaged just under 6 catches a game but will absolutely need to have a day in order for the Cowboys to have a shot at winning this game. Despite Lamb only clearing this number in 8/18 games this season, he has a great shot to go over here.
Final Thoughts
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1000 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other four do, you get paid at 2.5-1 odds, while winning at 10-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.
