Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 5-2; Week 4: 3-1
Breece Hall OVER 67.5 Rush+Receiving Yards
I think this is the last week that we see a number this low for Hall. He’s seen a jump in snap % each of the last three weeks, up to 66% last week. This is the week he could possibly jump into the 70%, but this past week is the first time he’s handled more than 8 carries, and he had a 17-carry, 66-yard performance in that game with another 12 yards on 2 catches.
With Hall already seeing an average of nearly 7 targets a game already, adding a 13+ carry workload is a huge increase into the back we knew he could be when he was drafted. I expect him to be plenty busy against a Miami Dolphins team that will be missing starting QB Tua Tagovailoa this weekend.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Teams have run all over the Detroit Lions this season. The Eagles’, Vikings’, and Seahawks’ running backs all rushed for at least 124 yards on the Lions, and that looks to continue this week with the Patriots coming to town. Bailey Zappe gets the starting nod once again with Brian Hoyer being placed on IR, so expect to see a lot of running from Bill Belichick’s squad.
Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Harris will see plenty of touches, but Harris has outcarried Stevenson 44-35 over the last three weeks. Even knowing this, Stevenson has been playing about 20% more of the snaps per game and has 5 carries of 10+ yards over the last 2 weeks. He gets this done in a grinding matchup.
Mike Evans UNDER 74.5 Receiving Yards
I’ve been trying to find at least one under every single week for these articles, since unders are way underplayed (hah, funny joke) but can be very exploitable. Evans is having a solid yet unspectacular start to his season but had a massive game in Week 4, scoring over 30 fantasy points. Outside of that game though, he has gone under this total in both Weeks 1 and 2.
Making this bet more attractive is the projected cornerback matchup he faces: Atlanta Falcons’ CB A.J. Terrell. One of the most underrated corners in the NFL, Terrell is having a very solid start to the season. He shadowed in the first 3 weeks and held Michael Thomas, D.K. Metcalf, and Amari Cooper all under 65 receiving yards. The Buccaneers could go up a bunch of points early here, rendering Evans’ services not necessary later in the game.
Travis Etienne OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards
This is a really interesting line, because while there was a bunch of hype around Etienne entering the season, it has taken a backseat to James Robinson’s stunning resurgence coming off an Achilles tear recovery. Etienne has flown under the radar as a result of it but has managed to post some decent numbers.
I know we got burned on his receiving yards prop last week, but we’re going right back to the well because Houston is ATROCIOUS against the run. They just finished giving up 2 touchdowns on the ground to the Chargers and sport the worst rushing defense in the league.
Etienne has also gone over this number in 2 out of 4 games and came 4 yards shy of beating it in last week’s game. His snap count last week tied a season-high and I would expect him to keep seeing more opportunities.
Final Thoughts
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.
