DFS Early Look: Week 8

Week 7 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 8 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 8 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 8 DFS:

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (@ DET)

DraftKings: $6,200 (QB4) | FanDuel: $7,700 (QB4)

Tagovailoa has only played in three full games this season, averaging 23.2 FPG (QB5, better than Lamar Jackson) and 333.3 passing YPG (1st) – numbers that would normally result in a price tag that’s about $1,000 more on both DFS sites.

But Tagovailoa jumps out once we account for his matchup. The Lions are PFF’s worst-graded coverage unit (43.5 team coverage grade), allowing a league-leading 32.3 PPG and 412.2 yards per game, while giving up the 8th-most FPG to opposing QBs (23.7). This is a great spot for a Dolphins passing attack that has looked dominant with Tagovailoa under center, and I would expect him (and the Dolphins' pass catchers) to be chalk as a result.

Sam Ehlinger, QB, Indianapolis Colts (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $4,000 (QB49) | Fanduel: $6,000 (QB52)

Sam Ehlinger may not be very good, but I’m not sure that matters given his absurdly low price tag and his matchup. Washington ranks as the 5th-best matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.3) while allowing the 2nd-most passing TDs (14) on the season.

But Ehlinger’s price is really the icing on the cake. Over the last four seasons, QB35 production has equated to 12.3 FPG – which would be a 3.08X of Ehlinger’s Week 8 salary, and a mark that would easily make him a top-3 QB value. And, you could argue that’s his floor, rather than his ceiling, given the praise he’s received due to his rushing upside. Ehlinger should be one of, if not the, highest-owned QB of Week 8 thanks to the salary savings he provides.

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks (VS. NYG)

DraftKings: $6,500 (RB10) | FanDuel: $8,400 (RB5)

Walker has seen at least 23 touches in each of the last two weeks since Rashaad Penny went down, averaging an impressive 23.9 FPG in the process. While Walker’s pass game role is nearly nonexistent (just 1.5 targets per game over the last two weeks), he has a stranglehold on backfield rushing work, earning 85% of carries in Penny’s absence. That’s great news ahead of a matchup with New York – who are PFF’s 4th-worst graded run defense (45.2 run defense grade), allowing the 3rd-most rushing yards (827) and the most YPC (5.7) to opposing RBs this season.

Walker is still glaringly mispriced on DraftKings, which should make him quite popular in Week 8.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins (@ DET)

DraftKings: $5,900 (RB19) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB19)

Mostert has logged at least a 61% snap share and 16 opportunities in his last four games, clearly establishing himself as Miami’s RB1. And I would expect him to be a popular target in Week 8’s highest-total game (50.5), especially since Miami is favored by 3.0-points.

Mostert averages a solid 14.6 FPG in his career when he sees 12 or more carries as a favorite, which likely reflect his median outcome here, agnostic of the great matchup. Detriot is allowing the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs this season (29.5), the 3rd-highest YPC (5.3), and the 2nd-most rushing YPG (162.8). So, this is really the ideal spot for Mostert – who has the same career YPC as Bo Jackson (5.4) – given the massive inefficiency of the Detriot run defense combined with the liklihood of positive gamescript.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (VS. MIA)

DraftKings: $6,900 (WR10) | FanDuel: $7,200 (WR11)

St. Brown is averaging 11.4 targets and 26.3 FPG over his last 8 healthy games. (Hitting a low of 10 targets only once, and exceeding 20.0 fantasy points in 7 of those 8 games.) For perspective, that’s the same targets per game and 0.7 FPG more than Cooper Kupp since the start of 2021. And yet, he’s priced $2,700 cheaper than Kupp in Week 8 while playing in the best game environment of the slate (50.5 total) against a defense that’s given up the 11th-most FPG to opposing WRs this season (35.4). Sun God is the top WR of Week 8, and I’m not sure any WR priced over $5,000 on either site will come remotely close.

Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints (VS. LV)

DraftKings: $6,000 (WR18) | FanDuel: $6,900 (WR15)

Olave has an incredible three games with 13 or more targets – the 2nd most of any player this season and tied with Cooper Kupp. If you compare Olave to the five healthy WRs who have as many or more double-digit target games as he does, you’ll notice that Olave is, on average, $2,560 cheaper on DraftKings. So, there’s arguably no better place to go for discount volume – well, excluding Amon-Ra St. Brown, who we have already discussed.

And it looks like the game environment and matchup will provide a solid boost to Olave’s Week 8 expectation, as this contest features the slate’s 3rd-highest total (48.5), while the Raiders have given up the 10th-most FPG to opposing WRs this season (35.5). Granted, it’s worth mentioning that the Raiders' primary weakness in pass coverage has been against slot WRs (+12 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, last) and Olave has only run 23% of his routes from slot alignments this season. Still, with the volume he is seeing at his price tag, Olave will be very popular among Week 8 DFS players.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, New York Giants (@ SEA)

DraftKings: $4,700 (WR36) | FanDuel: $5,900 (WR27)

Robinson is by far NYG’s most-targeted player on a per-route basis, earning a TPRR of 0.27 this season – a mark that rivals WRs like Stefon Diggs (0.28) and Justin Jefferson (0.27).

While that comes with an important caveat of Robinson still not being a full-time player, his usage is certainly trending in the right direction. He went from a 23% snap share, 4 targets, and 10 routes run in Week 6, to a 69% snap share, 8 targets, and 29 routes run in Week 7. The Giants clearly want to put the ball in his hands, and it’s difficult to believe they would prevent a very talented rookie like Robinson from seeing more routes to keep David Sills and Marcus Johnson on the field.

Expect the narrative around Robinson seeing more work to gain a ton of steam this week given his matchup against PFF’s 6th-worst graded coverage unit.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (@ LAR)

DraftKings: $5,700 (TE1) | FanDuel: $6,900 (TE1)

Last week, I had this to say about George Kittle’s recent usage:

“George Kittle’s usage continues to trend upward.

By XFP, he’s earned 5.8 (Week 3), 7.8, 8.7, and 16.6 (Week 6).

By route share, he’s earned 67% (Week 3), 64%, 81%, and 90% (Week 6).

And by target share, he’s earned 17% (Week 3), 16%, 20%, and 24% (Week 6).”

Week 7 saw Kittle earn 9 targets (21% share) while running a route on 92% of dropbacks and falling just two yards short of the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings.

I’m not sure we can put Kittle in the same tier of oligarch TEs as Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, but Kittle is easily the closest thing we have to an oligarch TE on the Week 8 main slate, and, crucially, he’s $2,000 cheaper than Andrews and Kelce were (on average) in Week 7.

So, it’s hard not to love Kittle this week, even in a tough matchup against a Rams’ defense that’s allowing the fewest FPG to opposing TEs (4.3), because of the comparative advantage he gives you at the position – assuming his usage from the last few weeks continues into Week 8.