How Free Agents Fare After Switching Teams

Moving is never fun. Packing everything you own, organizing items into specific boxes, and physically lifting and then moving all of your possessions is a tedious and downright annoying process. But, the hope is always there, that things will be better on the other side. That we are moving to greener pastures, figuratively and sometimes literally.

But for NFL players, moving shouldn’t always lead to that kind of optimism – at least from a fantasy perspective. Take Odell Beckham’s 2019 move from New York to Cleveland, for example. In each of his first five seasons, Beckham averaged at least 18.5 FPG, including the greatest rookie WR season in fantasy history (24.6 FPG). OBJ appeared to be extremely fortunate, leaving a washed-up Eli Manning to catch passes from the recent No. 1 pick everyone thought was destined to be a star in Baker Mayfield. Every data point we had on Beckham leading up to his 2019 season suggested he was a lock to be a fantasy WR1, and that’s exactly how he was drafted in 2019, as the No. 7 WR off the board by ADP.

But despite his long history of fantasy success, and what appeared to be an improved QB situation, Beckham’s 2019 FPG (12.6) suffered massively, falling 6.6 FPG short of his mark in the previous season. He finished as the WR33 by FPG, absolutely crushing the cohort of fantasy players who drafted him expecting WR1 outputs.

What happened with Beckham in 2019 is far from an isolated incident. Rich Hribar found that from 2008 through 2017, just 25% of WRs were able to beat their ADP after switching teams, while just 29% improved their FPG. And this isn’t unique to WRs, as Scott Barrett noted that at all positions, the far majority of players who switched teams from 2010 through 2018 failed to beat ADP.

In an effort to determine how changing teams impacts a player for fantasy, I decided to mirror this methodology across all positions to determine which positions are most impacted by a change in scenery.

Looking back at all players (within a certain ADP threshold) since 2010, here’s what I found:

TL;DR

Quarterbacks: 18% beat ADP, 53% improved by FPG

Running Backs: 20% beat ADP, 40% improved by FPG

Wide Receivers: 30% beat ADP, 37% improved by FPG

Tight Ends: 18% beat ADP, 32% improved by FPG

Summary: Across the board, we are looking at a 30% odds (or worse) of beating ADP, and worse-than-coin flippish odds of players improving their FPG after switching teams. The exact reasons for this are difficult to nail down completely, but we have some reasonable guesses. NFL teams may be overpaying for players who overachieved in schemes better suited for their talents, or perhaps players switching teams are typically older and may be approaching an age cliff. But whatever the reason may be, the evidence is clear that the fantasy community is far too optimistic about players changing teams. Hopefully you won’t make the same mistake after reading this.

Quarterbacks

Looking back to 2010, we find that out of 17 QBs to switch teams and rank top-24 in ADP, just three of them (2012 Peyton Manning, 2013 Alex Smith, and 2015 Tyrod Taylor) managed to beat ADP. But even those three success stories had caveats, as Manning was coming off a very serious neck injury that led to a year-long absence, Smith had just lost his starting job in San Francisco, and Taylor had never started a game in the NFL. As a result, none of those thee QBs were drafted inside the top-10 at their position.

Interestingly, despite the consistent failure to beat ADP at the position, QBs were the most likely to improve their FPG, with nine of the 17 QBs (53%) in our sample seeing an FPG increase after changing teams – and cumulatively seeing an average 1.8 FPG increase after changing teams.

This suggests, at least to me, that when we do buy-in on a QB who changes teams, it should be a QB who the public has largely written off. Obviously, the public is well-aware of elite talents like Deshaun Watson (QB13) and Russell Wilson (QB12), so while it wouldn’t be surprising to see their FPG increase, our natural assumption would be that there isn’t a significant edge in selecting either player at cost. But what about Matt Ryan (QB22), Carson Wentz (QB29), Mitch Trubisky (QB30), and Marcus Mariota (QB32)?

Well, Ryan is coming off his worst fantasy season since his rookie year in 2008, having averaged just 13.8 FPG. It seems like a near certainty he’ll at least be able to improve his FPG, as Jacoby Brissett (14.9 FPG), Philip Rivers (15.0 FPG), and Carson Wentz (15.6 FPG) all managed more impressive scores as the Colts’ starter over the last three seasons. But, that wouldn’t necessarily translate to Ryan beating ADP, as all three of Wentz (QB20), Rivers (QB28) and Brissett (QB28) finished their respective seasons in a similar range of outcomes to Ryan’s current ADP.

So what held them back? Fundamentally, and surprisingly to no one, Indianapolis loves to run the ball. The Colts had the 5th-fewest pass attempts in the 2021 regular season (555) and as a result ended up passing for just 197.7 YPG (7th-fewest). And why wouldn’t they go ground and pound? They have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL and Jonathan Taylor — a borderline inhuman RB cheat code who had 1,272 yards after contact in 2021. Only Philadelphia averaged more rushing YPG, and only Cleveland averaged a better YPC. The Colts are in an elite-tier of both rushing volume and efficiency, and that unfortunately holds their starting QB back in fantasy football.

Given what we know about Indianapolis schematically (run-first offense to the extreme), it’s hard to be bullish on Ryan relative to consensus.

Wentz, Trubisky, and Mariota rank outside of our top-24 QB cutoff but are still worth discussing, especially in best ball. All three QBs will be the favorites to start Week 1 (granted Atlanta and Pittsburgh could certainly draft QBs), and thus all three seem like near-locks to beat their ADPs if they start and stay healthy all year.

Last season in Washington, Taylor Heinicke averaged 14.8 FPG and finished as QB23, demonstrating a rather straightforward path for Wentz — who averaged more FPG (15.6) and fantasy points per dropback (0.47) in a worse situation — to beat ADP.

Trubisky (despite being universally dunked on by fans and analysts for poor play) is actually better than you might think for fantasy. In his last three years with at least nine games started, Trubisky has finished as QB26, QB31, and QB11 by FPG. He’s a borderline lock to beat ADP should he start all season, but it’s reasonable to have concerns given Trubisky (who has always been inefficient) is joining last season’s 5th-most inefficient offense by yards per play (4.8).

Mariota is the QB I’m the most intrigued by in this group, as he’s averaged an encouraging 16.1 FPG across his 61 career starts. Over the last three seasons, 16.1 FPG would rank no worse than QB26. He’s almost free in drafts (ADP: 211.6), so the risk of drafting him is minimal. But there are certainly still concerns, as current Atlanta HC Arthur Smith was Mariota’s OC during the worst season of his career in 2019, when he averaged just 12.4 FPG.

Running Backs

Among 49 running backs to be drafted top-36 at their position since 2010, only 10 managed to beat their ADP (20%) while just 18 of the 45 (who stayed healthy that year) improved their FPG (40%).

That’s… an incredibly low hit rate, and I’m not exactly sure what’s causing it.

My first thought was this was due to age. Players switching teams have all basically hit their second contract, meaning they are all at least in their mid-20s. Since high-end fantasy RB production appears to fall off of a cliff after age 28, we could figure the majority of RBs switching teams have simply hit a point in their career where declining production is to be expected. But that’s surely not the only factor at play.

Teams may be seeking out RBs coming off big seasons, so perhaps the wear and tear of those big workloads are preventing RBs from hitting their stride with a new team? Or perhaps it’s closer to the opposite. Are fantasy players overly optimistic that their favorite hyper-efficient RB will finally earn a big role with his new team? Are coaches attempting to force RBs into new schemes that don’t fit their talents? Are RBs underperforming once they’ve “secured the bag” and locked away a decent chunk of guaranteed money?

It’s nearly impossible to say for sure, but in any case, it doesn’t provide us much optimism for players like Chase Edmonds (RB38), Raheem Mostert (RB44), or Ronald Jones (RB49).

Both Edmonds and Mostert have the obvious handicap of playing together in a timeshare. But is it possible for both RBs to beat ADP? Since Mike McDaniel took over coordinating the 49ers run game in 2017, San Francisco had just one season (2020) where multiple RBs finished inside the top-36 at their position (by FPG), and in that instance, neither RB played more than 12 games. Given SF was a top-10 backfield by cumulative FPG three times in that five-year stretch, it’s certainly concerning how little fantasy success their starting RB duos tended to have. Still, SF did produce a top-36 RB (by FPG) in all of those seasons but 2019, so it remains likely one of Edmonds or Mostert can beat ADP. Given his familiarity with McDaniel’s system and his lower ADP, Mostert is my favorite between the two, albeit just barely.

Wide Receivers

Wide receivers had by far the highest positional hit rate when it came to beating ADP, as 29.7% of the 64 WRs in our sample beat ADP — the most at any position. But WRs ranked below both RBs and QBs in terms of improving fantasy-point-per-game averages, at just 36.5%.

The implication here is likely that fantasy players are tempering their expectations for WRs switching teams, perhaps rightfully so given the positions lack of FPG improvement. That’s likely creating value around WRs whose ADPs are staying relatively flat or decreasing, granted we still shouldn’t be expecting significant FPG increases for that cohort of players either.

This will obviously have a tangible impact on the draft stocks of guys like Davante Adams (WR4), Tyreek Hill (WR5), Amari Cooper (WR22), Allen Robinson (WR29), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR32), Robert Woods (WR44), Christian Kirk (WR46), Russell Gage (WR52), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR62), so let’s explore this a bit further.

Adams’ (ADP: WR4) stock has taken a minor blow, going from a top-5 QB to a top-14 QB, and entering an offense where his role as the primary goal line option might be severely diminished — Aaron Rodgers had 45% more red zone pass attempts than Derek Carr last season. That’s impacted his ADP, albeit only slightly, as he’s still a Round 1 WR by ADP. This obviously begs the question: just how good could Adams be in Las Vegas?

Somewhat shockingly, Derek Carr has never supported a WR1 season. The closest he got was Michael Crabtree’s WR13 finish in 2016 (15.0 FPG), and the best FPG season Carr has ever sustained was 2020 Darren Waller (17.4 FPG). This is certainly concerning for Adams, who has averaged at least 17.7 FPG in each of the last four seasons. But then there is the obvious counterpoint: this duo played together in college, and Adams earned a ridiculous 34% yardage share in his senior season. Still, with the lack of upside we’ve seen from Carr’s primary pass catcher, I have a hard time being bullish on Adams at his current cost.

Hill (ADP: WR5) is facing the biggest QB downgrade of any WR changing teams, going from a future gold jacket recipient in Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Scott Barrett gave the trade a lengthy breakdown, which I highly recommend reading. Overall, this move is a pretty bad deal for Hill, at least from a fantasy perspective. Hill is an elite deep threat, perhaps the greatest deep threat ever, and he’s going from one of the best deep passers of all time in Mahomes to Tagovailoa, who has attempted the 4th-fewest deep throws of any QB over the last two seasons (32 qualifiers). But, the 49ers scheme that McDaniel is bringing to Miami is one of the NFL’s best for maximizing yards after the catch, as a borderline unbelievable 51% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards came after the catch last season. And we only need to glance at Hill’s highlights to remember he is basically unmatched after the catch. So while this situation is an obvious downgrade for Hill, it’s far from the worst case scenario. With that said, I still find it likely Hill fails to beat his ADP, as I dropped him down to WR7 in my personal rankings.

Amari Cooper’s ADP saw a decent boost post-trade, moving up to WR22 from WR27. Immediately, I’m a bit skeptical. Cooper has played seven seasons with two different QBs, and has beaten a WR22 ADP three times by FPG (2020, 2019, and 2016) while never finishing higher than WR15. But, Deshaun Watson’s WR1 has historically crushed. Will Fuller averaged 17.2 FPG in 2020, and DeAndre Hopkins averaged 19.8 FPG as Watson’s top pass catcher from 2017 to 2019. If Cooper were to put up comparable numbers, then he’s a lock to smash ADP, as 17.2 FPG would rank no worse than WR9 in any of the last three seasons. And to make matters better for Cooper, this Cleveland receiving corps is completely devoid of talent. Jarvis Landry is a free agent, and beyond him, we are looking at Donovan Peoples-Jones (who averaged 7.8 FPG last year) and Jakeem Grant (who had just 11 receptions in 2021) as the remaining potential starters. So, yeah, Cooper will probably smash.

Our only notable concerns — though significant ones — are Cleveland’s run heavy nature, and the potential of Watson getting suspended. The Browns ranked 23rd last year in pass rate over expectation, and have ranked bottom-10 in passing yards per game and bottom-5 in pass attempts per game in each of the last two seasons. But I’m not sure that’s a concern that should carry much weight, as Cleveland just traded the world for a top-5 QB, and Cooper may end up pushing for a 30% target share in an offense with a top-5 QB. Granted, how many games that new QB plays remains to be seen.

Allen Robinson (ADP: WR29) is looking at his best QB situation since at least high school. Robinson’s ability to outproduce what his QB provided him has been almost comical, as he posted the WR13 season (by FPG) in 2020 with a combination of Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky, the WR11 season in 2019 with Trubisky, and even the WR6 season in 2015 with Blake ‘cig-ripping’ Bortles. But last season, Robinson finally lost his QB immunity. He posted career lows in FPG (7.2), PFF receiving grade (67.0), and YPRR (1.13). And, it seems, the fantasy community has written him off as a result, with a lowly ADP of just WR29, despite signing with LA. But that may be too harsh. Over the last four seasons, the Rams’ WR2 (which Robinson will surely be) has averaged 15.3 FPG. Last season, 15.3 FPG would’ve ranked just behind Jaylen Waddle and just ahead of Hunter Renfrow for WR17. And we just saw Odell Beckham Jr., who had also been written off as dust, average 12.4 FPG and score 7 TDs in 12 games with LA. There is certainly the risk that Robinson is ‘washed’ (granted, he’s only 28) and won’t return to old form, but that’s a risk I’m thrilled to take in Round 7.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP: WR32) has seen a serious rise in his draft stock since joining Kansas City, with some assuming he’s destined for a 100+ target season. Obviously, triple-digit targets in Kansas City is fantasy gold regardless of talent-level, but should we really be that bullish on JuJu? On the favorable side, JuJu is just 25 years old, and has two high-end fantasy seasons under his belt, finishing as WR23 (by FPG) in 2020 and WR9 in 2018. But, he’s also seen his YPRR numbers and PFF grades fall in a nearly linear fashion since 2018 — to the point that Smith-Schuster was a well-below-average NFL WR in nearly every efficiency metric last year. As you can probably tell, it’s an incredibly difficult situation to analyze. Kansas City is quite likely to add another WR in free agency or the draft (or both), but as of right now, we have to consider JuJu as their best all-around WR, despite his declining efficiency. With that said, it can’t inspire much confidence that JuJu got less guaranteed money than the likes of Jakeem Grant and Ray-Ray McCloud, suggesting coaches and executives have mostly written off the young WR. He’s a value on paper, but there are so many paths to failure for Smith-Schuster at this price that I find myself fading him almost entirely.

Robert Woods (ADP: WR44) didn’t wind up in a very inspiring spot for fantasy, as the Titans’ WR2 last season – Julio Jones – averaged just 8.0 FPG, down from a previous career-low of 15.5. During Mike Vrabel’s tenure, Tennessee WR2s have averaged just 9.0 FPG, good for a WR60 finish last season. That’s largely been due to Tennessee running the ball at a top-3 rate in each of the last four seasons. And given how successful they’ve been as a run-heavy team, it’s tough to see Vrabel changing course to get Woods more involved. Plus, we need to consider that Woods is about to turn 30, and is coming off of a November ACL tear, with recent reports suggesting he won’t be ready for OTAs. So, we have a litany of red flags here; aging WR coming off a major injury, landing on a team that doesn’t utilize their WR2 heavily. Could Woods put together a 2020 Corey Davis type of season and smash ADP? Sure, but with Tennessee’s offensive history that’s not something I want to gamble on before Round 11.

Christian Kirk (ADP: WR46) drew massive headlines for his contract, and for good reason. By average compensation per year, Kirk is currently the 10th-highest paid WR in football, despite never having a fantasy finish higher than WR32 (2019). Kirk is a good WR, but that’s about all we can say right now, as he’s never earned a PFF receiving grade better than 72.9 and offers a career YPRR of 1.53. And it’s hard to argue he’s entering a favorable situation, given no Jacksonville WR exceeded an 11.0 FPG average and the offense as a whole scored just 14.9 PPG (32nd) last season. Still, things can’t get any worse for the Jaguars than they were under Urban Meyer, and $18,000,000 per year is an amount of money that should command a significant number of targets and suggests Jacksonville views Kirk as a top-10 WR league-wide. Plus, can Trevor Lawrence – the supposed best QB prospect since Andrew Luck – really be as bad as he was in 2021, when he posted the 11th-worst TD rate (2.0%) of all-time? Right now, it feels like Kirk is being priced as if he were the WR1 on the 2021 Jaguars offense, which is almost certainly too harsh. I like Kirk as a value.

Russell Gage (ADP: WR52) is coming off back-to-back WR4 seasons, but he saw his usage pick up significantly in the latter half of the 2021 season, averaging 15.6 FPG and 8.5 targets per game – marks that would’ve ranked 13th- and 14th-best over the full season. Gage also, quite sneakily, posted top-end efficiency numbers last season, ranking 17th in YPRR (1.98) and 27th in PFF receiving grade (76.0) of 110 qualifying WRs.

Tom Brady still managed to take notice of Gage’s abilities, however, helping recruit the young WR to Tampa Bay. And despite Bruce Arians’ recent retirement, that should massively help Gage’s fantasy value. Bruce Arians’ slot WRs have historically smashed, and with the OC and playcaller remaining Byron Leftwich, an Arians disciple (and Brady), it’s tough to see this offense significantly changing, especially when we account for Brady’s own tendencies.

Just looking back at last year, all three of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin finished as WR1s by FPG. So, it should go without saying that Gage should have no problem producing in this offense, even if he is the third option. Gage is easily the most undervalued WR to have switched teams, and should be drafted as a high-end WR3 at worst. In other words, he’s currently mispriced by at least five rounds.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ADP: WR62) added depth to the Chiefs’ receiving corps, but it’s tough to know if he’ll earn a bigger role than what he had in Green Bay. MVS has never exceeded 8.6 FPG, a 65.0 PFF receiving grade, or 1.60 YPRR in any of his four years in the league. But, almost half (47.4%) of his receiving FPG has come on throws of 20 or more yards over the last 2 seasons. And quite frankly, Mahomes is one of the few QBs who can be considered a better deep-ball thrower than Aaron Rodgers. If we assume MVS won’t be much more than an inconsistent deep threat, then he’s probably an elite target (at cost) in best ball (poor man’s Tyler Lockett?), and a reasonable fade in almost all other formats.

Tight Ends

Of the 22 TEs since 2010 to switch teams and be drafted top-24 at their position, just four managed to beat ADP, representing the 2nd-lowest hit rate of all positions, just barely beating QB. And, TE had the worst rate of FPG improvement, as just 31.8% of the TEs in our sample earned a better FPG after switching teams.

Interestingly, of the four TEs who did beat ADP, three of them did so last season, and one happened in 2019. So perhaps fantasy drafters adjusted their expectations too far to the bearish side on TEs switching teams, leading to a relatively new market inefficiency? Or, was 2021 simply an outlier year?

More top-24 TEs switched teams in 2021 than in any other season in our sample, while two of the TEs who beat ADP did so just barely. I’m not exactly sure of the reason why, but it’s clear we still need to be skeptical of TEs changing teams, which immediately places Gerald Everett (TE22) and Evan Engram (TE23) in our crosshairs.

Gerald Everett’s situation is rather straightforward. Everett appears poised to take over the Jared Cook role, and, well, we already have a great idea of what that entails. Cook averaged 8.3 FPG last season and finished as TE18, despite the fact he was 35 and posted the worst YPRR (1.18) and 2nd-worst PFF receiving grade (63.4) of his career. Just how much better is Everett? It’s hard to say, but he is eight years younger and did post better efficiency numbers last year, so it’s reasonable to assume he could at least replicate Cook’s production at the position. If that’s the case, Everett is a value at an ADP of TE22, even with the known risk of having switched teams.

Engram has the advantage of playing for HC Doug Pederson, who has a long history of utilizing TEs as the focal-point of his passing attack. During Pederson’s five-year tenure as Eagles’ HC, Philadelphia TEs led the league in cumulative FPG three times, and finished top-4 the remaining two seasons, averaging 20.6 FPG over that stretch. And with Pederson as OC from 2013 to 2015, Kansas City TEs averaged 13.0 FPG. Assuming Pederson stays true to his tendencies, that’s somewhere between a 36% and 117% increase to cumulative TE FPG for Jacksonville, who averaged just 9.5 FPG in 2021 (25th). But, Dan Arnold will be in direct competition with Engram for those TE fantasy points. Still, Pederson had two seasons as Eagles HC with multiple TEs finishing in the top-10 in FPG (2016 and 2019) so it’s certainly possible both players could find serious success in the new scheme, and that would obviously require a significant step forward from Trevor Lawrence and this offense as a whole. Or, both players could cannibalize each other’s production, leading to neither TE coming remotely close to fantasy success. I certainly see a path to Engram paying off his ADP, but it’s difficult to be excited about a player who has seen his efficiency fall every year since 2018 and could lose out on TE1 duties to Arnold.