2024-25 Divisional DFS Coverage Shells

This article will cover all four divisional round matchups, ordered according to the game schedules.

Let’s get right to it!

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

HOU @ KC

The Houston Texans (11-7) will travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) on Saturday at 4:30 PM EST. The Chiefs are currently 10-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 42 points.

HOU already played KC in Week 16 of the regular season. KC won that contest by a score of 27-19.

Patrick Mahomes ($6,000) is priced as the DK QB6, and C.J. Stroud ($5,000) is priced as the DK QB8.

Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, KC deploys two-high shells at a 61.1% clip, 2nd-highest in the league this season. KC also deploys man coverage at a 32.5% rate, which ranks in the top 10 among defenses.

HOU WR Nico Collins ($7,600) is undoubtedly the team’s premier pass catcher before the season-ending injuries of Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Collins is targeted vs man as well as vs two-high at a higher frequency than other teammates by a longshot:

KC allows the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot (+4.5), while giving up the 2nd-fewest PPG to WRs lined up on the outside (-4.1).

Nico Collins has run 75% of his routes out wide this season. Against KC a few weeks back, he saw 11 targets and recorded 13 DK points, running north of 75% of his routes out wide in the process.

Tank Dell recorded 21.8 DK points before suffering a season-ending leg injury in that game, and TE Dalton Schultz ($3,300) finished with 8 targets and 15.5 DK points.

As for HOU defensively, they have no glaring preferences in general coverage deployment:

• 27% Man - 16th

• 69% Zone - 17th

• 54% Single-High - 17th

• 46% Two-High - 16th

HOU deployed man on >40% of their coverage snaps vs KC in Week 16:

As the season has gone on, opposing defenses are running out a higher rate of man when facing KC:

KC is also dropping back vs two-high shells at a lower rate as the season has progressed:

KC WR Marquise Brown ($4,200) made his regular season debut vs HOU in Week 16 and last played Week 17. Brown garnered 8 and 7 targets in those contests, respectively.

Rookie WR Xavier Worthy ($5,200) saw a team-high 11 targets in the initial HOU matchup and recorded 20.5 DK points.

Worthy is an interesting play if the Texans once again come out man-heavy. He is notably targeted more often vs man than he is vs zone:

WAS @ DET

The Washington Commanders (12-5) hit the road to take on the Detroit Lions (15-2) on Saturday evening at 8:00 PM EST. The Lions are currently 10-point home favorites and the game total is at 56 points.

The Commanders are led by rookie QB Jayden Daniels ($7,000), and they’re coming off a last-second field goal win over the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round. The Lions are coming off their bye week as the NFC #1 seed.

Daniels is priced as the DK QB3, and Jared Goff ($6,300) is priced as the DK QB5.

DET ranks bottom five in neutral pass rate this season (50%). Opposing offenses dropback at the lowest rate in neutral situations vs WAS (48.2%).

Defensively, DET owns the highest man coverage rate in the NFL (45%) and WAS deploys man at the 6th-highest rate (36%).

Goff is the most efficient fantasy QB vs man on a per-dropback basis, while Jayden Daniels is above average vs both man and zone:

Daniels has more noticeable splits vs single-high and two-high looks. He ranks top three in fantasy points per dropback vs two-high shells but is below average vs single-high:

Regarding single-high and two-high splits, DET doesn’t show as much favorability. But if you want to get into the nitty gritty trends, there’s been an ever-so-subtle uptick in two-high usage throughout the season:

WR Terry McLaurin ($6,300) is the team’s primary option on a week-to-week basis, but WR Dyami Brown ($3,900) serves as a high upside play if you’re willing to take on risk against this man-heavy DET defense:

As for WAS defensively, we already covered their 6th-ranked man usage. They’ve also increased their two-high usage in every game since their Week 14 bye:

TE Sam LaPorta ($4,200) is an elite fantasy producer vs man coverage on a per-route basis, as well as above average vs two-high shells:

LA @ PHI

NOTE: The current forecast is calling for snow in this game, which could severely impact the passing games. In a snow game in Philadelphia in 2013, Matthew Stafford went 10/25 for 151 yards and fumbled 5 times. It was the only time that season he threw for fewer than 200 yards.

The Los Angeles Rams (11-7) travel cross-country to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) on Sunday at 3:00 PM EST. The Eagles are currently 6-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 44 points.

Jalen Hurts ($6,800) is priced as the DK QB4, and Matthew Stafford ($5,200) is priced as the DK QB7.

While there are elite receivers in this game, the trench battle is fascinating.

For PHI, the trenches are a strength on both sides of the ball. For LA it can be an area of vulnerability.

PHI owns top-10 PFF run block (75.6) and pass block grades (74.0) this season. On defense, LA owns a top-10 pass-rush grade (75.7).

Inversely, LA ranks 6th in run block grade (75.3) but 30th in pass block grade (54.2). On defense, PHI has the second-highest pass-rush grade (86.5) and the highest coverage grade (93.2).

DC Vic Fangio has blended coverage and pass rush together for exponential returns:

Matthew Stafford’s grading splits when clean vs under pressure are quite drastic this season. For reference, MIN ranks bottom-10 in PFF pass-rush grade (65.3):

Here are notable pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, LA ranks 6th in zone coverage usage this season (73.2%). However, LA has increased their rate of man in each of their last seven games:

PHI WR A.J. Brown ($7,000) is arguably the best pass catcher on the planet vs man coverage right now. However, WR DeVonta Smith ($5,600) and TE Dallas Goedert ($3,900) are both above-average fantasy producers vs man on a per-route basis, and rank higher than Brown vs zone coverage:

If you buy into the recent LA trends on defense, Brown is a favorable coverage matchup play. And honestly, he’s rarely (if ever) a bad play, no matter the coverage matchup. But if LA goes zone-heavy like their season-long usage, that could open up opportunities for Smith/Goedert.

For PHI defensively, here is a very general overview of their season-long coverage deployment:

• 25% Man - 17th
• 69% Zone - 16th
• 51% Single-High - 19th
• 49% Two-High - 14th

Over the last few weeks, their two-high usage has surpassed 70%:

Another area of interest is the Eagles’ blitz rate. Overall, PHI ranks 26th among defenses in blitz rate this season (21.6%).

Taking a look at their weekly usage, it’s generally decreased throughout the season:

Stafford has produced at an above-average rate when blitzed, but is one of the least productive when he isn’t blitzed on a per-dropback basis:

Here are Rams pass catchers against man and zone coverage:

And against single-high and two-high looks:

Heavier zone and/or two-high looks from PHI on defense could open up opportunities for WR Cooper Kupp ($5,400) or Tutu Atwell ($3,300) if he gets any snaps.

BAL @ BUF

The Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hit the road and will take on the Buffalo Bills (14-4) on Sunday evening at 6:30 PM EST. The Ravens are currently 1-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 51.5 points.

Lamar Jackson ($7,800) is priced as the DK QB1 and Josh Allen ($7,700) is priced as the DK QB2.

These teams first squared off in Week 4, when BAL won by a score of 35-10.

Here are notable pass catchers in this matchup:

Please note that BAL WR Zay Flowers ($5,900) is unlikely to play at this point, but I still included him in the table just in case:

Defensively, BUF ranks 4th in two-high usage (55.5%) and 7th in zone coverage usage (73.1%).

Flowers commands the highest target share vs zone as well as vs two-high.

Should Flowers not play, the BAL ancillary weapons with the highest fantasy viability are WR Rashod Bateman ($4,900), TE Mark Andrews ($4,500), and TE Isaiah Likely ($3,500).

Flowers last played in Week 18 and recorded just a handful of routes before exiting from injury. Over the team’s last two games, Andrews has a team-high 11 targets, while Bateman/Likely are next with 9 targets a piece.

Likely doesn’t participate on as many of the team’s dropbacks as Andrews/Bateman, but is targeted at a higher rate vs zone and two-high. Likely has notched a solid expected points per route run from these coverage splits:

Defensively, BAL ranks 11th in man usage (31.4%) and 12th in single-high usage (55.8%) this season.

BUF drops back vs man (35.1%) and vs single-high (62.5%) more than any offense.

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson both like to hold the ball and excel out of structure, capitalizing when things start to break down, and can gash you with their legs. This leads to more weekly variance in pass catcher volume without a bonafide WR1 in either offense.

Having said that, the top four BUF weapons in the following table are even across the board. One player that stands out is WR Curtis Samuel ($3,400):

Samuel has three games with 50+ receiving yards this season. Two of those have occurred in each of the last two weeks and the other came vs KC in Week 11.

Samuel isn’t likely to see the field as much as other WRs. He’s cheap and there’s really no floor for production. But he’s another high-risk/reward player in strategies where you need to differentiate lineup construction.