2024 Week 17 DFS Coverage Shells

Week 17 is another slate with an abnormal schedule given the holidays and college now playing in their spread out bowl games.

The Sunday slate is not exactly what dreams are made of. Because of this, it’s slimmer pickings between game totals and pass-heavier offenses. Of the slim pickings, there’s a decent amount of negatively affected weather games, so it’s important to be conscious of conditions.

Team Defenses

Quarterback Values

Lucrative Passing Offenses

Wide Receiver/Tight End Values

CAR @ TB

The Carolina Panthers (4-11) will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) in an NFC South showdown at 1:00 PM EST this Sunday. The Buccaneers are currently 8.5-point home favorites, and the game total is hovering around 48.

Both of these defenses are poor against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy football. TB is giving up the second-highest schedule-adjusted FPG to quarterbacks (+4.4), while CAR is giving up the third-most (+2.9).

On the Thursday-Monday slate, Baker Mayfield ($6,900) is priced as the DK QB5, while Bryce Young ($5,600) is priced as the QB19.

Here are the notable pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, TB deploys the most zone coverage in the league (80.3%) and the 5h-highest rate of single-high looks (60.0%).

Bryce Young is a more efficient fantasy QB when dropping back vs zone coverage relative to single-high:

CAR WR Adam Thielen ($5,700) is a more productive fantasy asset vs zone coverage than he is against single-high looks on a per-route basis, while WR Jalen Coker ($4,300) is the inverse:

If you’re bullish on CAR in this spot, stacking Bryce with either Thielen or Coker is certainly an option.

Defensively, CAR deploys single-high looks at the 3rd-highest rate in the league (63.8%).

TB WR Mike Evans ($7,500) leads the team in single-high target share and is by far the most productive fantasy weapon on a per-route basis:

The TB offensive line grades out as our best unit from a pass block vs opponent pass rush matchup standpoint for all of Week 17:

GB @ MIN

The Green Bay Packers (11-4) will travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings (13-2) at 4:25 PM EST on Sunday. The Packers are currently 1.0-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 49 points.

The Packers have scored 30+ points in five straight games, and the Vikings have scored over 25 points in each of their last three games.

These two teams last played in Week 4, when MIN went on to win by a score of 31-29.

Sam Darnold ($6,400) is priced as the DK QB7, and Jordan Love ($6,200) is priced as the DK QB9.

For what it’s worth, I find Love to have a better coverage matchup. Defensively, MIN deploys two-high shells at the highest rate in the league (65.3%) and zone coverage at the 6th-highest rate (75.4%). Love ranks top five in fantasy points per dropback vs each:

Love finished as the DK QB2 vs MIN earlier this season, and that performance remains his best fantasy output of the season.

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

It always seems to be a guessing game with the GB pass catchers. None of them strongly pull away against any given coverage split, and it becomes a balancing act of weighing the players who are on the field more often and those who are lightning in a bottle with targets and opportunities.

None of them pull away in zone or two-high target share:

If you have an appetite for risk, GB WR Dontayvion Wicks ($3,900) is certainly a cheap candidate worth considering.

When these teams last played in Week 4, Dontayvion Wicks led GB with 13 targets and caught 2 touchdowns. He recorded nearly 30 expected fantasy points in that performance and finished as the DK WR4 on the entire week:

In the first matchup, MIN deployed two-high on 80.4% of their coverage snaps. Wicks is targeted on a high percentage of his routes vs zone and two-high:

Given what we know about GB, the inherent risk with Wicks is the uncertainty as to how often they’ll be on the field and how often HC Matt LaFleur designs targets their way when they are. GB has the lowest neutral pass rate in the league (46.9%), so any given target is extremely valuable.

As for GB defensively, they deploy zone coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL (76.8%).

As I mentioned earlier, Love has a stronger coverage matchup than Darnold. Darnold is dominant vs man on a per-dropback basis and less so vs zone, although still above average:

MIN WRs Justin Jefferson ($8,300) and Jordan Addison ($6,300) command higher target shares vs zone and are decently productive on a per-route basis in fantasy:

Addison finished as the DK WR7 in the first matchup vs. GB earlier this season, and Jefferson was the DK WR12.

LV @ NO

The Las Vegas Raiders (3-12) travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints (5-10) at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday. The Raiders are currently 1-point road favorites, and the game total is hovering around 37.5 points.

This game is gross. Two teams with nothing to play for, and one with an incentive to lose for an elite draft pick. But as mentioned earlier, the slim pickings on the early Sunday slate are notably impacted by rain. This indoor matchup provides stability as we grasp for an edge in the externalities.

Defensively, both teams have allowed top-10 neutral pass rates to opposing offenses this year: LV at 58.0% and NO at 57.8%.

NO WR Chris Olave ($5,200) hasn’t played since Week 9, but was a full participant in practice on Thursday. Nothing to bank on in a lost season, but his availability is certainly something to monitor:

Here are the pass catchers in this matchup:

Defensively, NO deploys two-high shells at the 8th-highest rate in the league (52.1%).

LV TE Brock Bowers ($6,700) commands a strong target share and is notably productive vs. two-high shells on a per-route basis: