“So call me when you’re close and you feel them city lights
Don't let the voices in your head talk too
You know they tell you lies
Yeah, for a hundred days, a hundred years
Yeah, there'll be demons, and there'll be fears
One day, you're gonna look back on how far you've gone
But you better walk before you run”
“California,” — O.A.R.
We’re at the point of the year where you can see some teams that are quietly quitting. Heck, some aren’t even that quiet about it. We will continue to exploit those teams, and I think we did a great job on Sunday. Pending MNF, all of our top five plays netted top 12 results. That’s incredible, albeit from a very down week of DST scoring. When four points in the top 12, we’ve got a problem. But hey, I’m fired up for our success and the blueprint we’ve laid out for the rest of the fantasy season.
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We key on bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 11’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Houston - 19 points (#1 DST)
- LA Rams - 9 points (#5 DST Tied)
- Green Bay - 4 points (#13 DST Tied)
- Miami - 6 points (#9 DST)
- New Orleans - 4 points (#13 DST Tied)
We’re at the point of the season where looking ahead a few weeks is a good idea. I’m not opposed to carrying two DSTs and playing the matchups from here on out. It can also be a strategic advantage to block your opponents from gaining an advantage in the position.
Six teams are on bye in Week 12, and another six are off in the fantasy finale, Week 14. That said, after this week’s recommendations, I’m going to list my outlook for the rest of the season on low-owned defenses.
WEEK 12 BYES: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 12
- Tampa Bay (12%) @ NYG
- Washington (20%) vs DAL
- Arizona (4%) @ SEA
- Denver (63%) @ LV - Over 50%, but it’s a tough week, and that ownership is way too low for a really good DST vs the terrible Raiders
- Chicago (50%) vs MIN
Higher-owned Options
Denver Broncos (DEN, 63%) — So I stretched a bit on this usual 50% ownership, but with six teams off, we need to examine all edges. Denver is really good. If you can snag them in this matchup against AFC West rival Las Vegas, do it! The Raiders allow the most points to opposing defenses on the year. If it’s not sacks, it’s turnovers. There’s never a clean sheet from the Raiders offense. You may not know the names Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen, or Jonathon Cooper yet, but they are wrecking opposing offenses. Entering the week, Denver was the league leader in pass rush win rate. Coming off back-to-back four-sack performances, the Broncos are a must-start. In their Week 5 matchup, Denver scored 16 fantasy points thanks to three sacks, three interceptions, and a defensive touchdown.
Chicago Bears (CHI, 50%) — It hasn’t been a great stretch for Chicago of late. Two straight four-point performances don’t inspire much confidence. The Monsters of the Midway has just two sacks over that same span. This week, they’ll have a chance to redeem themselves against Minnesota. The Fightin’ Sam Darnolds are 10th in points allowed to opposing DSTs, largely thanks to their QB taking sacks and throwing to the other team. Darnold righted the ship in Week 11, but that was against Tennessee. Before last week, he had a two-game heater of five interceptions and five sacks. I think the great pumpkin on Darnold’s shoulders gets knocked off as the Bears score a defensive touchdown at home.
Top Targets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 12%) — Coming off a bye, the Bucs will face Tommy DeVito and the Giants. Yup, it’s Cutlet time in the Big Apple. I was adding Tampa Bay for their runout for the rest of the season, anyway. This Giants QB move just made the matchup even better. DeVito (shout out to Syracuse) took 37 sacks across Weeks 8-17 in 2023. That’s unfathomably bad. Now, Tampa hasn’t been great this season. They allow points like Disney does tourists. I’m betting on a terrible quarterback to turn the ball over a few times as the Giants chase points in the second half. Monday also came news that cornerback Jamel Dean had his return window opened, which would be a welcome addition to the secondary along with newly claimed safety Mike Edwards.
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 4%) — This ownership number is a joke. Coming off their bye, the first-place Cardinals need to be rostered. This unit is coming off of back-to-back 12-point weeks. Their upcoming schedule is littered with juicy matchups. Their next four oppoenents all rank in the top ten of points allowed to DSTs. In the fantasy semifinals, the Cards visit Carolina. Giddy up!
Targeting Against Awful Offenses
Washington Commanders (WAS, 20%) — Have you seen the Dallas quarterbacks? I’d pick up a high school team against them at this point. A bonus here is adding Washington this week also gets you a Week 13 matchup versus Tennessee. The Commanders have the fourth-best pass rush win rate in the NFL at 49%.
Here are teams to target for the rest of the season who could be available on your waiver wires.
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 4%) — One of the single best remaining DST schedules in the league: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs SEA, vs NE, @ CAR, @ LAR. This unit is extremely under the radar but will lead someone to a fantasy championship.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 14%) — This defense isn’t good in real life, but after their Week 11 BYE, it’s a phenomenal run-out. From Week 12 on, they’ll face @ NYG, @ CAR, vs LV, @ LAC, @ DAL, vs CAR.
Denver Broncos (DEN, 64%)-- Overall scoring, this is a top 5 unit. In reality, they only perform against lesser competition. They’ve feasted against the bottom feeders of their schedule while, over the last two weeks, against Baltimore and Kansas City, scoring a combined two fantasy points. I like their next three weeks vs ATL, @ LV, and vs CLE before a Week 14bye. Their playoff schedule isn’t ideal: vs IND, @ LAC, and @ CIN.
Green Bay Packers (GB, 71%) — Their playoff schedule is very strong @ SEA, vs NO, @ MIN. I caution that even though Seattle and Minnesota are top-10 units in points allowed to opposing defenses, they can score and wreck your chances of winning a title. Buyer beware.
Philadelphia Eagles (PHI, 71%) — Probably not available, but I’m trying to help everyone. Not a great schedule at all. I’d only be excited to start them Week 14 vs CAR and Week 17 vs DAL.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 49%) — Not a great upcoming schedule but a decent overall defense. I'd look elsewhere, but with their ownership, I had to list them. Fantasy playoff matchups vs TB, vs DEN, @ NE.
Detroit Lions (CHI, 82%) — The upcoming schedule is very juicy @ IND, vs CHI. Don’t love the playoff schedule, though, vs BUF, @ CHI is great, but then @ SF. Dump them before the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins (CHI, 69%) — Only use Miami for Week 12 vs NE. If you make the fantasy championship, they will face Cleveland, which is a very plus matchup.
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 31%) — It's not a great unit this year, but they did get Micah Parsons back. If you are planning ahead, the Cowboys will get the Giants at home in Week 13 and will be at Carolina in Week 15; otherwise, ignore them.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 34%) — Week 12 BYE. Gets @ MIN, @ LV, vs NYG in Weeks 14-16.
Washington Commanders (WAS, 28%) — Great pairing option as they’ll face Dallas in Week 12, vs TEN in Week 13, BYE in Week 14, then @ NO for the fantasy playoffs opening round in Week 15.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 29%) — Grab for Weeks 14-16 (@ DAL, @ TEN, vs CLE).
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX, 5%) — In Weeks 14-16, this is a unit you can ride with @ TEN, vs NYJ, @ LV, vs TEN.
New Orleans Saints (NO, 34%) — Fantasy championship week at home vs Las Vegas.
