“The ship is setting off to sea
But it's sailing without me
I can't help but feel I'm on
An island born to sink
Oh, the devil's been talkin.’”
“Devil’s Been Talkin’” - NEEDTOBREATHE
When looking for a word to describe Week 10’s results, the only one that came to mind was “wonky.” This column looks to find diamonds in the rough of DSTs owned in fewer than half of Yahoo leagues. Typically, we can find several hits, as we’ve done all season.
What we haven’t seen to this point was what happened on Sunday when four teams under 10% ownership finished as top 10 options — my apologies to the faithful readers of Fantasy Points for missing Carolina, Jacksonville, and Arizona. Despite bad matchups, these teams came through on a down week for DST scoring. That’s the wild world of the NFL for you.
We want to focus on high-leverage spots where the DST will press the quarterback and force sacks and turnovers. We exploit bad lines, play-callers, and quarterbacks. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s look back at Week 10’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Chicago - 4 points
- Atlanta - 1 point
- Detroit - 8 points
- New England - 16 points
- New York Giants - 4 points
We’re at the point of the season where looking ahead a few weeks is a good idea. I’m not opposed to carrying two DSTs and playing the matchups from here on out. It can also be a strategic maneuver to block your opponents from gaining an advantage at the position.
Over the next four weeks, half of the NFL clubs will be on bye — four teams in Week 11, six teams in Weeks 12 and 14. If you don’t think your league mates will be scrounging the wire for plays, I’ve got news for you.
Some teams going on bye soon include:
Denver (#2 DST)
Buffalo (#3)
Houston (#10)
Arizona (best remaining DST schedule)
Here are teams to target for the rest of the season who could be available on your waiver wires.
Rest-of-Season Options
Arizona Cardinals (ARI, 6%) — On BYE in Week 11, so nobody in your league will be claiming them. You should. Single best remaining DST schedule in the league post-bye: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs SEA, vs NE, @ CAR, @ LAR. This unit is extremely under the radar but will lead someone to a fantasy championship.
Houston Texans (HOU, 44%) — Perfect team to pair with another unit. They have a Week 15 bye, and their playoff schedule stinks (@ KC, vs BAL), but the next four games are incredible: @ DAL, vs TEN, @ JAX, BYE, vs MIA.
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX, 5%) — This unit plays hard. They’ve scored 21 fantasy points in the past two games. Weeks 14-17 this is a unit you can ride with @ TEN, vs NYJ, @ LV, vs TEN.
Detroit Lions (CHI, 62%) — The upcoming schedule is very juicy vs JAX, @ IND, vs CHI. Don’t love the playoff schedule, though, vs BUF, @ CHI is great, but then @ SF. Dump them before the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins (CHI, 29%) — Only use Miami for Weeks 11 (LV) and 12 (NE). If you make the fantasy championship, they will face Cleveland, which is a very plus matchup.
Dallas Cowboys (DAL, 31%) — It's not a great unit this year, but they did get Micah Parsons back. If you are planning ahead, the Cowboys will get the Giants at home in Week 13 and will be at Carolina in Week 15; otherwise, ignore them.
Denver Broncos (DEN, 55%) — Overall scoring, this is a top 5 unit. In reality, they only perform against lesser competition. They’ve feasted against the bottom feeders of their schedule while scoring a combined two fantasy points over the last two weeks against Baltimore and Kansas City. I like their next three weeks vs ATL, @ LV, and vs CLE before a Week 14 BYE. Their playoff schedule isn’t ideal vs IND, @ LAC, and @ CIN.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 34%) — Week 12 BYE. Gets @ MIN, @ LV, vs NYG in Weeks 14-16.
Washington Commanders (WAS, 28%) — Great pairing option as they’ll face Dallas in Week 12, vs TEN Week 13, BYE in Week 14, then @ NO for the fantasy playoffs opening round in Week 15.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 29%) — Grab for Weeks 14-16 (@ DAL, @ TEN, vs CLE).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB, 9%) — This defense isn’t good in real life, but after their Week 11 BYE, it’s a phenomenal run-out. From Week 12 on, they’ll face @ NYG, @ CAR, vs LV, @ LAC, @ DAL, vs CAR.
Green Bay Packers (GB, 29%) — Coming off their BYE, it’s a great matchup at Chicago. Their playoff schedule is very strong @ SEA, vs NO, @ MIN. I caution that even though Seattle and Minnesota are top-10 units in points allowed to opposing defenses, they can score and wreck your chances of winning a title. Buyer beware.
New Orleans Saints (NO, 34%) — Fantasy championship week at home vs Las Vegas.
WEEK 11 BYES: Arizona, Carolina, NY Giants, Tampa Bay.
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS FOR WEEK 11
- Houston (44%) @ DAL
- LA Rams (23%) @ NE
- Green Bay (39%) @ CHI
- Miami (29%) vs LV
- New Orleans (34%) vs CLE
Higher-owned Options
Houston Texans (HOU, 44%) — Despite the second-half collapse against Detroit, the Texans DST looked good despite Will Anderson missing. They intercepted Jared Goff five times and pressured him into throwing before he was ready. Week 11 sees the Texans visiting the inept Dallas Cowboys. Whether it’s Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under center for Big D, the Texans DST is a must-start. Rush was an abysmal 13/23 for just 45 yards. He’s scared to throw the ball down the field. Lance has barely practiced with the first team all season. He’s completely lost in a drop-back-pass scenario, and this will be a fantasy bonanza for the Texans after a tough loss on Sunday night.
Top Targets
Los Angeles Rams (LAR, 23%) — The Rams pass rush is young and ferocious. The Patriots offensive line is young and awful. I’m all over the Rams in this one. Drake Maye is prone to throwing the ball to the other team (three INTs in the past two games). The Rams are charging toward a potential playoff spot, and New England is a mere bump in the road. Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jared Verse will cause Maye nightmares off the edge. The Rams got to Geno Smith seven times in Week 9, and it wouldn’t shock me if they matched that number on Sunday in Foxboro.
Targeting Awful Offenses
Green Bay Packers (GB, 39%) — Returning from their BYE and facing a Bears offense in disarray is just what the doctor ordered for Green Bay. While the last three weeks have provided putrid results (2, 5, and 4 points), the Bears offer the perfect get-right spot. Chicago is reshaping its abysmal offense, which is never good 10 weeks into a season. The Bears mustered just three points against New England and 142 total yards. They can’t run or throw. Seems like a unit to stream against, but I’m no genius. Chicago has allowed 16 and 12 points to opposing DSTs over the past two games. Those numbers include 15 sacks. Fire up the Packers in this NFC North rivalry game.
Miami Dolphins (MIA, 29%) — This is a two-week play. Add Miami for this matchup against Las Vegas and hold them for Week 12 vs New England. Both games are in Miami, and the Dolphins should win. Now, let’s be real: this hasn’t been a great defense. Their sack numbers were non-existent until Monday Night when they got to Matt Stafford four times. This is purely a play based on awful opponents. You’ve been warned.
New Orleans Saints (NO, 34%) — The beauty of playing against a Jameis Winston-led offense is you know he’s more than likely throwing a pick or three. It doesn’t really matter who the QB is in Cleveland; they’re taking sacks (12 in the past three games) and throwing interceptions (5 in the past three games). These Browns are third in the league in terms of points allowed to opposing defenses. Now, New Orleans isn’t special by any means. They can force pressure, as evidenced by their three sack performances in Weeks 8 and 10.
Looking Ahead at Week 12
Houston vs TEN
Denver @ LV
Miami vs NE
Detroit @ IND
Washington vs DAL
