“If we come back and we're broken
Unworthy and ashamed
Give us something to believe in
And you know we'll go your way.”
“Guiding Light” - Mumford and Sons
It’s an interesting week on the waiver wire as four teams are on bye, and the NFL trade deadline could shake up some rosters. On Tuesday, we saw the Detroit Lions add a significant pass rush piece with Za’Darius Smith coming over from Cleveland. We want to focus here on high-leverage spots where the DST will be pressuring the quarterback and forcing sacks and turnovers. We exploit bad lines, play-callers, and QBs. That said, how did we do last week?
Let’s start by looking back at Week 9’s results from my top 5 adds.
- Cincinnati - 10 points (DST 9)
- Philadelphia - 9 points (DST 11)
- Washington - 4 points
- New Orleans - 3 points
- New England - 4 points
It was a meh kind of week for yours truly. That happens with the options available and the freak nature of DST scoring. No excuses, though. We’re still giving out multiple top 12 plays with our top offerings. This week is tough due to byes, ownership levels, and matchups. For example, we always pick on the Titans, but their opponent, the Chargers, is 65% owned.
If they are available, they would be my number one add. I know you’ll see the LA Rams listed on several sites for DST adds versus the Dolphins. But since Tua Tagovailoa’s return, Miami has allowed three points per week to oppose DSTs.
WEEK 9 BYES: Cleveland, Green Bay, Las Vegas, Seattle.
DST ownership based on Yahoo league percentages
DRAKE’S TOP 5 DST ADDS
- Chicago (60%) vs NE
- Atlanta (10%) @ NO
- Detroit (47%) @ HOU
- New England (14%) @ CHI
- New York Giants (7%) @ CAR (Germany)
Higher-owned Options
Chicago Bears (CHI, 60%) — The Bears break our rule of 50% ownership, but it’s a rough week, and if this unit is unowned in 40% of leagues out there, we need to remedy that. Chicago’s offense is a mess, but who cares? Their DST is ballin’. Last week, the Monsters of the Midway forced two turnovers and sacked Kyler Murray three times. This week, it’s rookie Drake Maye’s turn against the defense, which allows the fewest passing touchdowns in the league (5). That could pose a problem as the Patriots have thrown the second-fewest (8). Chicago shouldn’t have any problem getting to Maye, as the Pats offensive line gave up four sacks a week ago and at least two in every game dating back to Week 1. New England allows the fifth most points to opposing DSTs.
Top Targets
{{Atlanta Falcons|DST|ATL} (ATL, 10%) — The Saints are a mess. They just fired their head coach, offensive coordinator, and offensive line coach. I’m sure that’ll go over well against the Falcons on Sunday in the Superdome. This isn’t as much of a play for Atlanta as it is against New Orleans. It’s unlikely that Chris Olave (concussion) will play. So, Derek Carr is throwing to guys I legitimately thought were A.I. generated. If you know who Mason Tipton is, go outside. The Saints are much better with Carr under center as he doesn’t take many sacks, just one last week. This is a hunch that he throws to the Falcons, and they take it to the house. I anticipate the Falcons having a lead for most of this game, which will force Carr into situations where he becomes the punchline we know and love.
Detroit Lions (DET, 47%) — What a trade at the deadline for Detroit to bring in former Browns pass rusher Za’Darius Smith. He’s an instant impact player who will fill the void left by the injury to Aiden Hutchinson. How much Smith plays is unknown. My guess is the Lions will have a few pass-rush packages for him. That’s a nightmare scenario for C.J. Stroud on the other side, who just took eight sacks against the Jets in Week 9. The Texans line let their quarterback down almost as much as his receivers did. Houston is rolling with Tank Dell and radio contest winners at this point. Losers of two out of three, I wonder if Houston can keep pace with Detroit’s electric offense. Since Nico Collins went down in Week 5, the Texans scored over 25 points just once. Detroit will push the pace, and I believe it will lead to Texans turnovers and fantasy points for the defense.
Targeting Against Awful Offenses
New England Patriots (NE, 5%) — This Bears offense is a tough watch. Caleb Williams bails from the pocket. He’s inaccurate with balls. Best of all for us, he takes sacks (six last week). Now, remember, New England stinks. This is purely a play on Williams melting down as he did last week. I’m not super high on this play because the Patriots' offense could easily bog down themselves, and this game turns into a 9-6 slog. If you’ve nothing else on the wire, I submit the Patriots against a QB seeing ghosts.
New York Giants (NYG, 14%) — What a gift for the German people. Enjoy the best of American football on Sunday as the Giants battle the Panthers. My goodness. This week on the wire isn’t great; I’ve said as much. The G-Men literally scored zero points last week at this position. But the Giants rush the passer. They lead the league in sacks (35) but are dead last in interceptions (1). That number changes in Munich because Bryce Young lives to throw the ball to the other team. On the year, Carolina has thrown at least one pick in every game but one. That’s hard to do! I like the Giants to rough up the former Heisman winner and enjoy some fine schnitzel in celebration.
Looking Ahead to Week 11
Detroit vs Jaguars
LA Rams @ Patriots
San Francisco vs Seahawks
NY Jets vs Colts
Green Bay @ Bears
Miami vs Raiders
