2024 Week 1 DFS Early Look

The NFL regular season is 34 days away, which means we are just 34 days away from fantasy football. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings has released their Week 1 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jump out to me for Week 1 DFS:

Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $6,300 (QB7)

There hasn’t been a slate with a healthy Richardson on which I haven’t gone out of my way to jam him in, and Week 1 looks no different. This game boasts the 2nd-highest total (48.0) of the main slate, and a Colts’ team that was marred by injuries last year is finally healthy.

Far more importantly, we may be dealing with a generational fantasy talent in Richardson. Richardson’s 0.76 fantasy points per dropback paced all quarterbacks in the 2023 season and ranked the best by any quarterback since Lamar Jackson in 2019.

Richardson averaged 29.9 fantasy points, 54.4 rushing yards, and 6.8 designed rush attempts per four full quarters. If those were his per-game numbers, all three would have ranked best at the position last year, and 29.9 FPG would have been the best by any QB ever.

Sure, Richardson's sample size (10 full quarters) is minuscule, but HC Shane Steichen has an impressive track record of getting the most out of every quarterback he works with…

Sometimes, the plays are as simple as clicking the generational athlete with an elite coach who is playing in one of the best scoring environments on the slate.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders (@ TB)

DraftKings: $5,700 (QB13)

Nearly everything about Daniels’ rookie profile inspires confidence here, even if the Commanders’ 18.75 implied team total doesn’t.

Daniels is one of three QBs on the Week 1 main slate with a salary that’s relatively cheaper than his ADP (QB12). He averaged an absurd 40.0 FPG in his Heisman-winning 2023 season, which ranks 2nd-most of any Power 5 QB since at least 2016. And his 1.20 fantasy points per dropback also ranks 2nd-best since 2014. Those impressive college fantasy numbers were largely a result of Daniels' incredible rushing ability (he was the first QB to lead the FBS in YPC since Vince Young), and I don’t expect that to change much at the next level…

Combine that with a “no-huddle offense” and it’s easy to call Daniels a Week 1 value – after all, he’s the QB7 among slate-eligible QBs in our season-long projections (19.7 FPG) but the QB13 by DraftKings salary.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (@ NYG)

DraftKings: $5,200 (QB22)

Playing a QB like Darnold is never sexy, but if you need to dumpster dive, he’s likely one of the best ways to do it in Week 1.

Vikings QBs averaged the 5th-most FPG (23.3) last season while leading the NFL in passing YPG (276.5). Even Nick Mullens — who almost certainly isn’t better than Darnold — averaged 23.7 FPG (low of 22.1) in his three games as the Vikings starter (QB2 over the full season). For further emphasis, he averaged 370.0 passing YPG with T.J. Hockenson. This is exactly the type of offense we want to take shots on when their QB is dirt cheap.

The 41.0 total does offer some reasons for trepidation – it’s tied for the 2nd-lowest total on the main slate. But the spread (Vikings -1.5) suggests a close game, and this Giants secondary could be a complete disaster, clocking in at No. 31 in PFF’s 2024 secondary rankings. Really, this is largely a bet that Minnesota’s passing offense will retain some of the juice they showed last year – because Darnold is objectively underpriced if so.

Of course, JJ McCarthy ($5,200) would profile as an eerily similar play if he is named the Week 1 starter.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $7,800 (RB1)

Week 1 pricing dynamics make it unusually easy to pay up at RB, and Taylor is my favorite way to do it.

There are near-zero rotational concerns here – Indianapolis only has Evan Hull (two career touches) and Trey Sermon (78 carries in three seasons) fighting for scraps behind Taylor.

That should leave Taylor with an even better workload than he earned in 2023. Don’t forget, Taylor averaged 17.9 DraftKings FPG (RB5 over the full season) after he became a starter in Week 7, despite earning a 66% snap share over that stretch (10th-best over the full season).

The defensive matchup wouldn’t be considered favorable, but the elite game environment (48.0 total) certainly is. While Taylor risks getting vultured by star QB Anthony Richardson, it’s also possible the Colts will want to keep Richardson in bubble wrap early in the season — especially because both of Richardson’s major injuries (concussion and AC Joint) happened on designed rushes last season. Anything close to the end zone that doesn’t go to Richardson should fall right into Taylor’s lap.

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $6,800 (RB5)

Achane averaged the 2nd-most DraftKings FPG (17.5) among slate-eligible RBs last season, yet he’s priced as the RB5. Of course, the modest value here isn’t the only reason we want to play Achane…

Achane was so remarkably efficient last season that a usage bump is a near-lock, but his single-game upside is nearly unrivaled.

Achane exceeded 25.0 DraftKings points in five of his 11 games last season (45%); Bijan Robinson (who is $900 more expensive) only hit that mark in 12% of his 2023 contests.

This is fantasy’s most valuable backfield (34.3 FPG last year), and Achane earned only 39% of backfield XFP (11.4 XFP/G) in his healthy games last season. If Achane managed 60% of backfield XFP this season (~17.4 XFP/G) and were even half as efficient as last year, he would average ~20.7 FPG, which is 16% better than the next-best slate-eligible RB in 2023.

There are a variety of ways you could argue for Achane as a great play in Week 1, but he’s simply too cheap, too talented, and in too good of a backfield to overthink this spot. He could easily be $8,000 (or more) on DraftKings within a month.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VS. WAS)

DraftKings: $6,300 (RB10)

White was a full-blown bell cow in the 2nd-half of 2023, earning 17.1 FPG (8th-best), 16.4 XFP/G (8th-best), and a 79% snap share (3rd-best). All signs point to a similar role to kick off 2024, yet White is $1,300 cheaper than he was in Week 17 of last season.

White can get you there in a variety of ways – he tied with Jahmyr Gibbs in targets (70) and earned a league-leading snap share inside the red zone (91%). And for Week 1, his matchup is certainly favorable; Washington allowed the 6th-most rushing YPG (126.8) last season, and the 3rd-most receiving YPG (39.9) to players lined up in the backfield.

White is largely a bet on volume, but that’s a bet I’m a lot more eager to make when he’s discounted in a favorable matchup.

Expensive WRs

DraftKings inflates the prices of high-end players as the season progresses. For Week 1, Tyreek Hill ($8,700) is $600 cheaper than he was in Week 17 of 2023. Michael Pittman is $700 cheaper. Jaylen Waddle is $1,400 cheaper. Can you spot the trend?

Almost all high-end WRs, despite returning to the same (or a similar) role as last season, are offered up at a substantial discount relative to Week 17 of 2023. The lesson here is simple: be more willing to pay up at WR early in the season because the top-end WRs will only get more expensive as we move deeper into the year. The ~10% discount we get on the league’s best pass catchers shouldn’t be taken for granted.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins (VS. JAX)

DraftKings: $6,300 (WR15)

Waddle is one of the cheapest players on the Week 1 main slate relative to the end of last season, but it’s easy to forget just how good he was when healthy. In the six games last season, he earned a route share over 70%, Waddle averaged 83.3 receiving YPG (10th-best) and 18.0 DraftKings FPG (6th-best among slate-eligible WRs last year).

Waddle pops as a screaming value relative to his $6,300 price tag — especially in a matchup with a bottom-5 Jaguars’ secondary (per PFF).

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons (VS. PIT)

DraftKings: $6,000 (WR18)

DraftKings has done a better job relative to previous years in making sure that Week 1 salaries largely align with ADP. But whoever is in charge of Week 1 pricing clearly forgot about London – he’s the WR10 by DraftKings best ball ADP and the WR10 in our season-long projections, but the WR18 on the slate.

London is the single-best market-based value on the slate, as the WRs drafted before and after him on DraftKings (Marvin Harrison and Nico Collins) are both at least $1,000 more expensive for Week 1.

The game environment (42.5 total) is rather middling, but London’s QB and offensive coordinator upgrade is enough to offset any major concerns. Under Arthur Smith, the Falcons operated one of the most hostile offenses to receiving production in recent memory — the team averaged the second-fewest catchable targets per game over the past two seasons (20.0).

Cousins, meanwhile, averaged the 2nd-most over that span (30.1), a whopping +50% difference in catchable targets. Target quality should improve on top of raw volume. Last season, Atlanta posted the league’s lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) at -5.5%. New OC Zac Robinson is a Sean McVay disciple – and the average PROE of offenses coached by McVay disciples last season was +2.8%.

London presents a rare opportunity to not just capitalize on overall offensive improvement but also an objective market inefficiency, given his Week 1 price.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants (VS. MIN)

DraftKings: $5,900 (WR19)

I’m always skeptical of playing rookie WRs in Week 1, but Nabers might be different…

Scott Barrett’s Rookie Prospect Model loved Malik Nabers, having him only a hair behind Marvin Harrison Jr., who is currently being drafted on DraftKings as the WR9 to Nabers’ WR20. Though New York's offense won’t be anywhere near as productive as Arizona's, Nabers could easily make that up through sheer volume – without Saquon Barkley (who ranked 2nd among all NFL players in XFP%) and Darren Waller (team-high 6.2 targets per game), the ball has to go somewhere, right?

It’s certainly possible that Nabers will immediately become New York’s true No. 1 receiver while additionally offering an immense PPR-cheat-code floor beyond that — he’ll be doing everything Wan’Dale Robinson was asked to do (e.g., screens, handoffs, layup targets against linebackers in coverage, etc.) but doing this at a much higher level than Robinson.

To me, this will really just come down to ownership. If Nabers is anywhere near as popular as a player like Drake London he’s an obvious fade – but if the market doesn’t want to take a chance on a rookie WR in a questionable offense then Nabers makes for an exciting tournament play.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts (Vs. HOU)

DraftKings: $4,800 (WR40)

Prior to a Week 9 knee injury that lingered, Downs ranked 30th in YPG (59.1, not far off of Michael Pittman’s 66.1) and 24th in YPRR (2.00; an important benchmark for rookie WRs). On the 424 total routes, Pittman and Downs were both on the field together (with Downs running a number of these routes at less than 100%), and Pittman outscored Downs by only 19.7 total fantasy points (~1.2 FPG).

We will want to attack a Colts offense that’s expected to take a significant step forward with a healthy Anthony Richardson. Downs is the cheapest guaranteed starter, has a track record of success when healthy, and he’s playing in an elite game environment. Remember, this game touts the 2nd-highest total (48.0) of the main slate and Indianapolis may be forced to throw as 2.0-point underdogs. Downs is one of the premier ways to save salary on the Week 1 main slate.

Greg Dortch, WR, Arizona Cardinals (@ BUF)

DraftKings: $3,900 (WR59)

It’s going to be extremely difficult to find serious playing time among the sub-$4k WRs, but Dortch is at the top of that list. Beyond glowing praise from Kyler Murray, Dortch has been remarkably effective when he’s earned starter-level playing time.

Over the past two seasons, Dortch has averaged 56.5 receiving YPG and 12.7 DraftKings FPG in games where he has earned a route share over 70%. Keep in mind that 12.7 DraftKings FPG would rank 24th-best among slate-eligible WRs last season. Dortch is one of the most obvious values of the Week 1 main slate if we know he’s a starter.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons (VS. PIT)

DraftKings: $4,600 (TE8)

Pitts is the only TE on the Week 1 main slate with a DraftKings price (TE8) that’s cheaper than his DraftKings ADP (TE6). And last I checked, Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder are no longer around to torpedo Pitts’ fantasy value – now replaced by Kirk Cousins and McVay disciple Zac Robinson at OC.

Under Smith, the Falcons operated one of the most hostile offenses to receiving production we’ve seen in recent memory; the team averaged the 2nd-fewest catchable targets per game over the past two seasons (20.0). Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings under new Falcons QB Kirk Cousins averaged the 2nd-most over that span (30.1), a whopping +50% difference in catchable targets.

This is Pitts's best offensive situation ever, likely by a significant margin. I’ll always take shots on a generational prospect in DFS when their price is notably below market value.