Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 75 routes run)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
The rookie has been underwhelming in terms of fantasy production, especially considering his draft position. However, a deeper look at the underlying metrics paints a different picture. His win rate and A.S.S. score are comparable to those of Justin Jefferson this season, indicating he's performing well individually. The real issue seems to lie in how the Cardinals utilize him, rather than his actual ability. Nearly 48% of his routes are Go, Post, and Corner routes — plays designed for big moments but not conducive to consistent week-to-week production, particularly for a rookie. Also, as you can see here, he’s winning and it’s not connecting because of the OL and Kyler not letting this ball go.
legend has it that marvin harrison jr. is still running pic.twitter.com/t1F52fO7iU
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 22, 2024
Despite posting strong win rates on Ins, Outs, Hitches, and Slants, they aren't giving him enough opportunities on these more consistent, chain-moving routes. Instead, they continue to chase big plays. Without a shift in how he's used, it’s hard to envision him becoming a reliable fantasy contributor in the near term.
This disconnect between his talent and usage could lead to a false narrative from box score watchers, who might undervalue him. For fantasy managers, this could present an ideal buy-low opportunity if others are willing to sell based on his lackluster production so far. I believe Harrison Jr. is a generational prospect who’s simply miscast with the situation at the moment.
George Pickens (PIT)
Mike Tomlin faced heavy criticism all week for leaning toward Russell Wilson over Justin Fields, but those doubters were quickly silenced by what unfolded on the field. Wilson’s ability to throw with touch down the field was a game-changer for the team’s offense, which exploded for 37 points—their highest total since Week 11 of 2021. Wilson’s touch passes have drastically improved the offense’s ability to move the ball, and this is especially significant for George Pickens. All Pickens needs is a chance to make a play, and with Wilson under center, that’s exactly what he’s getting.
Pickens showed just how dangerous he can be in Wilson’s first start, coming down with three highlight-reel, “hero” catches against a formidable Jets secondary. His ability to win contested catches and make acrobatic plays is unmatched, and now he’s the clear catalyst of this passing game. Wilson is going to target Pickens every time he sees single coverage, and defenders need to be ready to battle for the ball in the air because Pickens will always have a shot to come down with it. Fades on the goal line are going to become a go-to for the Steelers.
In this game, Pickens posted an average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.8 yards, showing how his downfield connection with Wilson is only going to get stronger. Pickens is already top 20 in A.S.S. score and leads the league in "hero" catches. This combination of elite ball skills and a quarterback like Wilson, who’s willing to take risks downfield, makes Pickens a nightmare for defenses moving forward.
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
The world often expects every wide receiver to be the next Randy Moss or Jerry Rice, and if a player doesn’t live up to those lofty comparisons, they’re easily overlooked. Rashod Bateman is a prime example of a talented receiver who wins consistently but doesn’t always fit the mold of what people expect. His production has been hampered by the offensive situation—he’s in a system that isn’t pass-heavy and shares targets with multiple playmakers. Add to that a quarterback who makes the game look effortless when running, and Bateman’s opportunities are even more limited.
Despite this, Bateman is still capable of delivering strong performances, as we’ve seen over the last three games. He’s fourth in the NFL in A.S.S., boasts a win rate of over 22.2%, and has only 7 fewer receiving yards than Amon-Ra St. Brown—despite having 20 fewer targets. While the offense won’t revolve around the passing game, Bateman continues to show that when given the chance, he’s more than capable of producing and thriving, even if he’s not in the spotlight as much as others. Tamper expectations for the league-winning production and enjoy watching everything happening in Baltimore right now.
Overall Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowing how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 80 routes run)
Davante Adams (NYJ)
Adams still ranks among the lowest in A.S.S. in the league, but his debut with the Jets showed improvement, edging him closer to a positive score. With Aaron Rodgers under center, I expect that trend to continue. Adams' presence will not only boost his own production but also open up opportunities for Garrett Wilson, as defenses will need to account for both playmakers.
Looking at the Jets' upcoming schedule, they have a favorable stretch to build rhythm on offense. The Patriots' defense has not been playing up to its usual standards, and the Jets already handed them a 24-3 loss in Week 3. While the Texans' pass rush will pose a challenge, they are still beatable down the field, followed by easier matchups against the Cardinals and Colts, and then a much-needed BYE. After that, they face the Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams—teams that offer more opportunities for offensive success — before finishing with a tough game against the Bills.
This stretch of games provides plenty of chances for Adams and Wilson to thrive and establish a strong connection with Rodgers at the helm.
DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
Hopkins has been the third-best wide receiver on the Titans this season, largely due to a lingering knee issue and enduring some of the worst quarterback play of his career. Now, with a fresh start on the Chiefs, he’s set to work alongside Travis Kelce, helping to replace the short-area production that Rashee Rice was providing. As the season progresses, I expect Hopkins’ production to rise.
While Hopkins isn’t the dominant player he once was, his hands remain elite, and that’s exactly what this Chiefs roster needed — someone dependable to fill the gap left by Rice. This move should certainly improve the offense, but it’s more of a step in the right direction than an immediate fix. Hopkins’ presence will elevate the unit, but it won’t necessarily solve all of the Chiefs’ offensive struggles overnight.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Jalen McMillan (TB)
Chris Godwin's injury thrusts McMillan into a larger role, one that closely mirrors Godwin's, and he'll be crucial for the Buccaneers in the coming weeks. While it would be wise for Tampa Bay to explore the wide receiver market — especially if Cooper Kupp becomes available — I have confidence in McMillan stepping up. It may take some time for him to develop strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield, but the potential is there.
Godwin has run 111 horizontal-breaking routes this year, compared to McMillan’s 48, and both players have posted 25% win rates on these routes. Godwin has been Baker's primary read, which explains why McMillan’s production hasn’t matched his potential yet. However, as McMillan’s role expands, I fully expect his numbers to rise. With more opportunities coming his way, production should follow as he settles into this new responsibility.
Jalen Nailor (MIN)
Nailor had an impressive performance against Detroit’s secondary, posting a .304 separation score and a 26.1% win rate. His ability to create big plays was on full display, leading to a solid 4-reception, 76-yard game. With T.J. Hockenson set to return, it will be interesting to see how Minnesota adjusts its offense. If Hockenson is close to his old form, Nailor could see his role diminish, similar to how Juan Jennings for the 49ers gets phased out in certain situations. However, Nailor could still deliver "spike week" performances when defenses are most vulnerable to 11 personnel looks.
Overall, Nailor is showing real potential as the Vikings' developing number three wide receiver. His continued growth and how he fits into the offense when the team is at full strength will be intriguing to watch as the season progresses.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Romeo Doubs (GB)
Every Packers wide receiver should be excited about the upcoming matchup with the Jaguars, given the amount of man coverage they’re expected to face. Two Packers receivers, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, have been particularly effective against man coverage this season, each posting over a 30% win rate in those situations. While Wicks only ran 40% of the routes last weekend, all eyes should be on Doubs, who is in a prime position to capitalize on this matchup.
In reality, the entire Packers receiving corps is in a favorable spot this weekend. The Jaguars' defensive style is likely to create multiple big-play opportunities, and the Packers' wideouts are well-equipped to take advantage. Expect Doubs, in particular, to be a key factor, but don’t be surprised if other receivers also contribute with explosive plays.
Summarized
In conclusion, this week's deep dive into the Fantasy Points Data Suite reveals valuable insights for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on key metrics like A.S.S. (Average Separation Score). Players like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rashod Bateman aren’t producing at a high level with the situations they are in, while George Pickens and Davante Adams are positioned to see increased output as their respective offenses evolve. DeAndre Hopkins presents an intriguing case as he transitions into the Chiefs' system, offering stability and upside as the season progresses. Staying ahead of these trends can give fantasy managers a crucial edge as we move into the second half of the season.
