The A.S.S. Report: 2024 Week 5

Every week I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.

If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.

Top ASS Overall

(Minimum 50 routes run)

Keenan Allen (CHI)

Allen continues to demonstrate that he is one of the better route separators in the NFL, with an A.S.S. (Average Separation Score) score of .250 this season. While the production hasn't fully caught up yet, it's on the way. When Allen has been on the field, he's had a 21.0% target share and a 26.4% first-read share. If you're in PPR leagues, these metrics suggest that his output is set to increase soon. Although he may not reach the league's elites in fantasy scoring, Allen’s role in the short areas of the field positions him for consistent, reliable contributions, while DJ Moore and Rome Odunze dominate the downfield opportunities.

One of the best developments this week was Caleb Williams finding his rhythm against a struggling Carolina Panthers defense. With upcoming matchups against the Jaguars, a BYE week, the Commanders, and the Cardinals, Williams should continue to build on this momentum. This favorable schedule offers a solid opportunity for him to grow in confidence and maintain his upward trajectory, which is great for all of his pass catchers.

Dontayvion Wicks (GB)

Wicks seemed like a solid start this weekend but didn’t deliver, mostly due to drops and some missed opportunities from Jordan Love. He still ranks 15th in Average Separation Score, with a low negative rate of 4.7%. Wicks' ability to get open is solid, but the drops hurt his numbers. In fantasy, starting him over a struggling Drake London or Garrett Wilson was probably a mistake. He’s better suited as a Boom-Bust Flex, maybe over someone like Keon Coleman.

My advice? Temper expectations when you are putting in a player who doesn’t routinely start at a position that’s already volatile. While Wicks isn’t the next Randy Moss, he’s definitely outperformed expectations for a fifth-round pick. If the 2023 NFL Draft were redone, teams would take him much higher. I believe Wicks is still a great start with the byes this weekend and will be a bounceback player.

Jalen Tolbert (DAL)

We’ve learned a lot about the Cowboys as the season progresses: their inability to stop the run, injuries plaguing the defense, Brandin Cooks getting a wild injury, and a run game that’s been underwhelming. Sunday night showed us that there’s growing potential for Jalen Tolbert to carve out a bigger role in this offense in Cooks’ absence. Tolbert showed flashes against the Steelers, where he led key drives and earned Dak Prescott’s trust, something Prescott highlighted during training camp. Tolbert has also posted a high win rate and strong separation numbers from the slot, a position where he’s been especially effective and should continue to be utilized.

This weekend, the Cowboys face the Lions, a team known for playing heavy man coverage. Tolbert has a chance to capitalize on this matchup and deliver his best performance yet. The Lions' defense will be laser-focused on CeeDee Lamb, who has been dominant against man coverage, averaging 4.53 yards per route run. This should open up opportunities for Tolbert, especially considering the Lions have struggled against high-level slot receivers like Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While Tolbert may not be on their level, he’s coming off a strong game with 10 targets, including the game-winning touchdown. With most of the attention on Lamb, Tolbert is well-positioned to make another impact this week.

Overall Bad ASS

For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.

Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.

For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."

(Minimum 50 routes run)

Van Jefferson (PIT)

I’m really hoping the Steelers make a move for Davante Adams. Having the top two leaders in negative A.S.S. on the same team would be a funny thing to talk about, and trading one of the better WRs in George Pickens for that would be even better. I’m increasingly concerned about Pickens. His benching in favor of Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin on Sunday night was hard to watch. There’s clearly something off with Pickens, and Mike Tomlin isn’t the type of coach to tolerate any drama. I wouldn’t be surprised if something comes to light about this situation in the near future.

As for Van Jefferson, if he’s set to be the Steelers' top wide receiver moving forward, the team is going to have to lean even further on their defense to win games. Jefferson’s production potential is not high—he’s posted one of the lowest win rates among players taking meaningful snaps, at just 5.1%. If this is what the Steelers are working with, it’s tough to see where consistent offensive output is going to come from.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)

With Rashee Rice out for the season, Smith-Schuster has stepped into a larger role, and it looks like he’s here to stay. While I don’t expect him to repeat his 130-yard performance against the Saints, since he’s not a top-tier wide receiver, he’s still positioned to produce solid numbers. Being bottom 10 in separation score is not a good sign, but his 10.4% win rate is enough to make an impact, especially with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Realistically, I see Smith-Schuster's production settling closer to his 2022 averages. From a week-to-week perspective, expect around 6.3 targets, 4.9 receptions, and 58.3 yards per game. He might not be a game-breaker, but with Mahomes, he’ll likely remain a steady contributor. I don’t expect him to even climb the leaderboard in separation to produce, and he’s going to do just enough for Mahomes and the offense to perform.

Notable Weekly ASS

(Minimum 20 routes run)

Zay Flowers (BAL)

Zay Flowers continues to prove he’s an elite separator, posting the highest A.S.S. (Average Separation Score) of the week and consistently breaking down the Bengals’ cornerbacks. His .349 win rate against man coverage on the year further highlights his ability to consistently beat defenders one-on-one.

Despite his talent, the Ravens haven’t fully unleashed his potential, largely due to concerns with the right side of the offensive line. To compensate, they’ve leaned heavily on the run game with Derrick Henry. The more they establish Henry, the more space will open up for Flowers in the passing game. It’s taken some time, and in recent games, they haven’t needed to rely on him as much. Against the Bills, the run game was so effective that they didn’t need to air it out, and they were up big early on against the Cowboys. The Bengals, however, were the first team to push the Ravens into a more balanced attack, and we saw what Flowers could do when given the opportunity.

This weekend, the Ravens face a formidable test against a Dan Quinn-led defense that will likely focus on stopping the run. With Jayden Daniels, a quarterback whose style mirrors Lamar Jackson’s dynamic play, the Ravens may need to turn to the passing game more often. While Quinn’s defense features playmakers like Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu to slow down the ground attack, they lack the cornerbacks to effectively contain Zay Flowers. Given his .349 A.S.S. win rate against man coverage, this creates an ideal scenario for Flowers to put up big numbers if teams decided to play man on the outside and load the box to stop Henry. Combining this performance against the Bengals with the upcoming matchups against the Commanders and Buccaneers, Flowers is poised for what could be his best three-game stretch of the season.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

Brandon Aiyuk has finally had his breakout game, and it came in a big way against the Arizona Cardinals. He’s the only wide receiver in the NFL with over 50 routes this season and a win rate exceeding 30.0%, solidifying his place as a top performer. The next three weeks will be especially interesting as Aiyuk is set to face some of the league's top cornerbacks. Now that he’s found his rhythm, I expect him to keep up this high level of performance.

Aiyuk boasts a 45.1% win rate against man coverage and 29.3% against zone, proving that there isn’t a matchup he can’t win. The main challenges he’s faced have been a few drops and missed opportunities due to either Brock Purdy’s throws or the offensive line breaking down. With the 49ers unable to afford more losses, these upcoming games will be critical to their season, and Aiyuk's ability to continue dominating could be a key factor in their success.

Amari Cooper (CLE)

Amari Cooper got off to a slow start after his holdout but has recently started showing signs of returning to form as one of the better wide receivers in the NFL. However, Deshaun Watson’s inconsistent play is holding him back. Cooper has only had 59.6% of his targets deemed catchable, ranking 60th out of 61 players with at least 25 targets this season. That low catchable target rate makes it difficult to trust Cooper in fantasy, despite his talent.

For Cooper to reach his full potential, either a change at quarterback or a move to a new team seems necessary. He isn’t doing his quarterback any favors with some of his drops, but that doesn’t mean he should be forced to continue to play with Watson. He’s still a very capable receiver posting a 23.0% win rate against man coverage, but with Watson at the helm, it’s hard to see Cooper producing at the level fantasy managers expect. Until something changes in his QB situation, Cooper's fantasy ceiling will remain limited.

Breakout Performance This Weekend

Ja’Lynn Polk (NE)

After playing it relatively safe with breakout predictions for Brian Thomas and Ja’Marr Chase, I’m going bold this week with rookie WR Polk. He played 100% of the snaps last weekend, and with Drake Maye now stepping in for Jacoby Brissett, I expect Polk’s big-play potential to shine. Among 186 players with over 50 routes run, Polk ranks 4th in win rate percentage, which is a strong indicator of his ability to get open. The Texans’ cornerbacks are vulnerable to big plays, and with Maye’s ability to extend and push the ball downfield, Polk has a great opportunity to produce. While the Patriots' offensive line is a concern, I’m confident Maye will create enough time for Polk to capitalize on this matchup.

Summarized

In summary, several wide receivers are either poised for breakout performances or require changes to fully unlock their potential. Keenan Allen remains a reliable short-area target with strong separation metrics, while Dontayvion Wicks and Jalen Tolbert present intriguing Boom-Bust Flex options in favorable matchups. On the flip side, Amari Cooper is struggling with inconsistent quarterback play, which limits his production and fantasy value.

Brandon Aiyuk and Zay Flowers, however, are showing elite separation skills and are primed for big games, with Aiyuk hitting his stride and Flowers gaining more opportunities as the Ravens diversify their offense. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also worth monitoring, as he steps into a larger role with Rashee Rice out for the season. While Juju may not replicate his 130-yard game against the Saints every week, his win rate and chemistry with Patrick Mahomes should allow him to remain a steady contributor moving forward. Finally, rookie Ja'Lynn Polk is a bold breakout candidate with a high win rate and a favorable matchup against the Texans, making him one to watch for a potential big-play performance this weekend.