Every week, I will be diving into the Fantasy Points Data to provide our readers with actionable and winning insights into your season. This week provided a lot of valuable data points for things going forward and showcased some of the major improvements players have made. I will focus mainly on ASS (Average Separation Score) but blend in plenty of metrics that offer a full picture, like first-read targets.
If you are new to the term ASS don’t worry — we have covered the ASS metric in great detail with What's the deal with ASS? and Our ASS Sleepers and Breakouts.
Top ASS Overall
(Minimum 125 routes run)
Christian Watson (GB)
Watson ranks 5th in A.S.S. score, and that’s without relying heavily on slot work, which generally makes it easier to achieve a high separation score. The Packers have showcased a big rotation every week at WR because all of their players can win, but they might be without Romeo Doubs this Thanksgivin,g and they would need Watson to step up. The matchup also sets up well for Watson.
When the Dolphins have struggled against the pass, it’s often been against bigger wide receivers excelling on horizontally and vertically breaking routes, such as Marvin Harrison Jr. or Brian Thomas Jr. Watson, who primarily plays out wide, runs over 80% of his routes in this style. He currently ranks 9th in win rate on horizontally breaking routes and 12th in vertically breaking routes.
Mike Evans (TB)
Evans continues to defy time, delivering a dominant performance in his return from injury. He posted a 35.3% win rate and, on just 17 routes, was targeted six times for 68 yards. However, his streak of 1,000-yard seasons is at risk, as he will need to average 100 yards per game to close out the season. If his hamstring holds up, he can string together some big performances in the coming weeks. Notably, three of his remaining games will be played in the favorable weather of Tampa Bay in December, two will be indoors, and only one road game — this weekend’s matchup — will be outdoors in Carolina.
(Minimum 15 routes run)
Adding to his advantage, Evans faces some of the worst pass defenses in the NFL during this stretch. Crucially, he will avoid Marshon Lattimore in Week 18 when the Buccaneers face the Saints. Being that dominant of a WR to end the year might not be possible, but it’s impossible to not root for Evans to achieve that mark.
His ranking second in A.S.S. score and dominating as he did immediately after a hamstring injury speaks volumes about Evans’ talent and resilience. He continues to solidify his legacy as one of the greatest wide receivers to ever play the game.
Tank Dell (HST)
Dell posted his highest separation score of the season, an impressive 0.313, showcasing his continued ability to create space against defenders. The problem is with the Texans’ offensive line and a consistent issue to protect Stroud throughout the season. Though the specific blame for the line's struggles is unclear, playcallers often face these challenges, and savvy fantasy managers know this is the time to invest in talented players. Dell’s knack for separation is a skill that is what you want. The only problem with Dell is that it is clear he is the number 2 WR in this offense. However, Dell’s role as a top number-two receiver tied to an elite young quarterback like C.J. Stroud makes him a player to prioritize.
Looking ahead, a matchup against the Jaguars this weekend, followed by a bye week, provides the perfect chance to reset and prepare for the stretch leading up to the playoffs. If Bobby Slowik and the coaching staff can adjust their play-calling, especially in how they design protections, they could give Stroud more time to operate. With the pieces they have in place, this Texans offense has the potential to get hot, flip the switch, and emerge as one of the league’s most dangerous units down the stretch. They have the talent, they just need to execute.
Weekly Bad ASS
For once, being a "Bad ASS" isn't a compliment, and the wide receivers on this list have some work to do. In the NFL, separation is crucial — it's what makes a receiver effective.
Those with the lowest Average Separation Scores (ASS) struggle to get open, forcing quarterbacks to make riskier throws. Being on this list suggests issues with route-running, knowledge of how to beat coverage, speed, or timing with the quarterback.
For these receivers, improving their separation is vital to becoming more reliable targets. The coming weeks will be key as they aim to move off this list and show they're more than just "Bad ASS."
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Justin Jefferson (MIN)
Jefferson has played 26 games outdoors, averaging 77.5 yards per game in these matchups. Of his 35 career touchdowns, only eight have come in outdoor games. While the challenging weather in the NFC North is often to blame, this past weekend's game against the Bears was not about the weather—it was about Jefferson’s performance. For the second time in the past four weeks, Jefferson posted a negative separation score, which never happened last season. A notable trend during this was that teams like the Bears avoid man coverage against him, instead opting for zone schemes that pass him off to other defenders and making sure he can’t win on crossers.
This approach allowed the Bears to limit Jefferson's impact, leading to big performances from T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison instead. While there’s no reason for concern regarding Jefferson's long-term outlook, teams may start to try and emulate this style of play to contain him. If that happens, we could see continued strong production from Addison and Hockenson as the season progresses.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ)
Harrison has not lived up to the hype from a metrics standpoint, but there are a few positives to take away from his season. The Cardinals recognize he needs more routes that break horizontally — you can see the increase over the last two weekends, and his win rate has stayed consistent. The struggles vertically have been due to getting thrown off his route when facing press coverage. These corners also know there is help over the top, so they can be more aggressive in coming after him. That is something Harrison Jr. has to get better at beating going forward.
He’s not having this generational rookie year, but the whole NFL is having a bad year passing, and our expectations for rookies have been blown out the door over the last five years. Harrison has all the makings, from what I see, to be an elite player with areas that he’s very capable of improving going forward. The round 1 to 2 turn in fantasy was a bad pick, but that doesn’t make Harrison Jr. a bad player.
Notable Weekly ASS
(Minimum 20 routes run)
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)
Since Jameis Winston took over as the starter, Jerry Jeudy has been on pace for 1,600 yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded 70 or more yards in every game and finally looks like the WR he was expected to be coming out of college. Against the Steelers, he put on a show, posting the highest separation score the Steelers have allowed all season.
Jeudy currently ranks 9th in win rate against man coverage among wide receivers with over 100 routes against it, but it took the QB change to fully showcase his talent. Looking ahead, two of the Broncos’ next three games are against teams that utilize man coverage at the highest rates in the NFL, setting Jeudy up for potential spike weeks.
Devaughn Vele (DEN)
Sean Payton has his system in place and operating at a high level with Bo Nix under center. Every wide receiver on the Broncos has found ways to contribute, but Vele has been the most impressive over the past three weeks. During this stretch, Vele has emerged as the second option in the offense, boasting a 22.4% first-read share, running over 60% of the routes, and maintaining an impressive 77.8% catch rate. His efficiency stems from his role in the short and intermediate areas of the field, rather than downfield.
This type of wide receiver is especially valuable down the stretch, as his usage provides a higher floor in fast-paced matchups. This weekend’s game against the Browns should offer another strong opportunity for Vele to shine, making him a reliable option in this offense. If you make it to the fantasy championship in Week 17, the matchup against the Bengals should be high-scoring and one where he would be a flex option.
Breakout Performance This Weekend
Rome Odunze (CHI)
The Detroit Lions play the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL, and Odunze leads his team in yards against man coverage. This success is partly due to the matchups he gets; with defenses focusing on DJ Moore as the primary option and showing respect for Keenan Allen, Odunze gets looked at as the third option. Over the last two games with Thomas Brown has made Odunze the second option as the play-caller, Odunze has posted a 39% air yard share, a 26.2% first-read share, and leads the team in end zone targets.
Another factor in Odunze's recent productivity is Caleb Williams's improved play. Since firing Shane Waldron, Williams has looked far more comfortable and effective, both with his arm and legs. His increased confidence has been evident, highlighted by his rookie performance of completing 68% of his passes for 340 yards against a Brian Flores defense—a remarkable feat. This Thanksgiving game against the Lions provides a significant opportunity for both Williams and Odunze to set the tone for the remainder of the season.
