The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, I highlighted a bet I’ve already made on Tony Pollard and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Most Passing Yards Odds, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 30 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
2024 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing touchdown projection. Target the Lowest Rushing Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receiving Touchdown Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals for receivers as of June 24.
| Player | FP Projection | Highest Touchdown Total | Lowest Touchdown Total |
| David Montgomery (Det) | 12 | 9.5 (-115, MGM) | 8.5 (-110, DK) |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 11 | 11.5 (-115, CZR) | 10.5 (-120, DK) |
| Derrick Henry (Bal) | 10 | 11.5 (-161, CZR) | 10.5 (+100, MGM) |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 10 | 9.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) | 9.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) |
| Raheem Mostert (Mia) | 10 | 8.5 (-120, DK) | 8.5 (+105, CZR/MGM) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 9 | 10.5 (-115, MGM) | 9.5 (-105, DK) |
| Anthony Richardson (Ind) | 9 | 8.5 (-115, MGM) | 7.5 (+105, DK) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 8 | 10.5 (-130, DK) | 9.5 (+135, CZR) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | 8 | 8.5 (-135, CZR) | 7.5 (-110, DK) |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 8 | 7.5 (-110, DK) | 7.5 (-105, MGM) |
| Travis Etienne (Jax) | 8 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (-110, DK) |
| De’Von Achane (Mia) | 7.5 | 7.5 (-125, DK) | 6.5 (+100, CZR/MGM) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | 7 | 8.5 (-149, CZR) | 6.5 (-110, DK) |
| Kenneth Walker (Sea) | 7 | 8.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) | 8.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 7 | 7.5 (-120, MGM) | 7.5 (+110, DK) |
| Najee Harris (Pit) | 7 | 6.5 (-115, DK) | 5.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 7 | 6.5 (+110, DK) | 6.5 (-105, CZR) |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 7 | 5.5 (-110, DK) | 5.5 (-110, DK) |
| Zamir White (LV) | 7 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 4.5 (+100, CZR/MGM) |
| James Conner (Ari) | 6.5 | 6.5 (-120, CZR) | 6.5 (+110, CZR) |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 6 | 9.5 (-115, MGM) | 9.5 (+120, CZR) |
| Isaiah Pacheco (KC) | 6 | 7.5 (-115, MGM) | 6.5 (-110, DK) |
| Joe Mixon (Hou) | 6 | 7.5 (-115, CZR) | 7.5 (-115, CZR) |
| Zack Moss (Cin) | 6 | 6.5 (-120, MGM) | 6.5 (+105, DK) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 6 | 4.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) | 4.5 (-115, CZR/MGM) |
| Kyler Murray (Ari) | 6 | 4.5 (+110, CZR) | 4.5 (-120, MGM) |
| Aaron Jones (Min) | 5.5 | 5.5 (-120, DK) | 4.5 (+100, CZR/MGM) |
| Jonathon Brooks (Car) | 5.5 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 4.5 (-110, DK) |
| D’Andre Swift (Chi) | 5 | 5.5 (+100, DK) | 4.5 (-149, CZR) |
| Ezekiel Elliott (Dal) | 5 | 5.5 (-130, CZR/MGM) | 5.5 (+100, CZR/MGM) |
| Lamar Jackson (Bal) | 4 | 5.5 (-125, DK) | 5.5 (+135, CZR) |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 4 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 3.5 (-115, MGM) |
| Tony Pollard (Ten) | 3 | 6.5 (-150, DK) | 4.5 (-145, CZR) |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 3 | 4.5 (-110, DK) | 4.5 (-105, CZR) |
| James Cook (Buf) | 3 | 3.5 (+105, CZR) | 3.5 (+100, MGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Tony Pollard (Ten) under 7.5 rushing TDs (-110, DraftKings). Placed March 13.
Pollard finished with 252 carries and 55 receptions in the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (29.9 PPG), and he still went down as a bust after being drafted as the RB6 in the early second round. He finished with 6 rushing TDs (2.4% TD rate) despite finishing with the sixth-most carries inside the 10-yard line (30) and the seventh-most carries inside the 5-yard line (13). Pollard handled 60.7% of Dallas’ inside the 5-yard line carries, but he’s set to face more competition from Tyjae Spears in a Titans offense that scored 12.0 fewer PPG than the Cowboys last season. He should have a little better TD luck since he previously scored at a 3.3% rate on his first 510 carries in 2019-2022, but his 252 carries (14.8 per game) should dip significantly this season. I gave out Pollard to finish under 7.5 rushing TDs right after he signed with the Titans at the start of free agency, and his prop line has plummeted since then.
Brolley’s Leans
Jalen Hurts (Phi) under 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-115, BetMGM).
Hurts has scored 10+ rushing TDs in each of his first three seasons as a full-time starter, including 13+ TDs in the last two years. The Eagles perfected the Tush Push play with Hurts under center, which helped him score a whopping 11 TDs from the 1-yard line last season. It remains a legal play for now but Philadelphia could use the play less frequently in 2024 after future Hall-of-Fame center Jason Kelce retired in the off-season. They could also just be less effective running the Tush Push with Cam Jurgens set to take over at center. The Eagles spent $26 million in guaranteed money to add Saquon Barkley to their backfield, and they’re going to give him opportunities to score. Hurts finished sixth in goal-line carries (16) and first in goal-line TDs (13) a year ago, but Barkley figures to put a dent in those figures in 2024.
Raheem Mostert (Mia) under 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-120, BetMGM).
Mostert ran pure in the touchdown department in his ninth season at 31 years old. He scored an NFL-best 18 rushing touchdowns on 209 carries (8.6% TD rate) and he scored a TD for 56.2 rushing yards gained last season. He did it all while missing the final two games of the season. You don’t need me to tell you that Mostert’s touchdown production is set to regress significantly in 2024. He previously scored 14 touchdowns on his first 465 career carries (3.0% TD rate) and he scored 1 TD for every 178.6 rushing yards gained from 2015-22. The Dolphins could monitor Mostert’s workload throughout the season with De’Von Achane looking to take on a bigger role and with fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright added to the mix.
Najee Harris (Pit) over 5.5 rushing touchdowns (-115, BetMGM).
Harris has found paydirt 7+ times via the ground in each of his first three seasons despite a career 2.6% TD rate (22 TDs on 834 carries). Harris’ carries have declined in each of his first three seasons (255<272<307) with Jaylen Warren earning a bigger role, but Najee should remain the team’s top goal-line option. He converted all 8 of his rushing TDs on his 23 carries from inside the 10-yard line while Warren gained just 4 yards with no TDs on 8 carries from inside the 10-yard line last season. Pittsburgh has some uncertainty with Arthur Smith taking over playcalling duties, but he gave his power back Tyler Allgeier the biggest share of inside the 5-yard line carries over the more talented Bijan Robinson. A slimmed-down Najee has a little extra motivation entering this season after the Steelers declined his fifth-year option.
Jonathon Brooks (Car) over 4.5 rushing TDs (-110, DraftKings).
The Panthers traded up to use second-round capital to select Brooks, which means he’ll be given every opportunity to be the team’s top back. Chuba Hubbard could lead this backfield in September since they could ease Brooks back into action off his torn ACL, but he should play ahead of Hubbard and Miles Sanders for the majority of the season. Rachaad White finished fourth in snap rate (78.7%) on his way to an RB10 finish (15.9 FPG) with 6 rushing TDs under Panthers HC Dave Canales. The new play-caller should elevate a Panthers offense that averaged an NFL-worst 13.9 PPG, and they signed guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis to improve an O-line that ranked 30th in adjusted yards before contact (1.06). Hubbard snuck out 5 rushing TDs in Carolina’s pitiful offense last season, and Brooks should be the top option in what will be an improved offense this season.
Zamir White (LV) over 4.5 rushing TDs (-110, DraftKings).
The Raiders decided to give White a crack at the lead runner job after letting Josh Jacobs walk in free agency. They mostly passed on the position in the draft until they selected passing back Dylan Laube in the sixth round. White, a 2022 fourth-round pick, earned just 37 carries through his first 27 games behind Jacobs, but he ran well in a four-game audition to end the season. He tied Najee Harris with a league-high 84 totes in Weeks 15-18, which he converted into 397 yards and 1 TD. Antonio Pierce wants to pound the rock when he can as evidenced by the Raiders ranking 24th in pass rate over expectation (-1.5%) in his final nine games as the interim coach. White a bit concerningly ranked 43rd out of 49 RBs with 100+ carries in missed tackles forced per attempt (.13), but 12th in yards after contact per attempt (2.86). Jacobs scored 6+ rushing TDs in each of his five seasons as Las Vegas’ lead runner, and our projections have White safely climbing over his 4.5 rushing TDs total with 7 scores.
