2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props

The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props for the league’s top players at the skill positions. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Calvin Ridley, Jordan Addison, and Xavier Legette and a couple of additional wagers I considered.

Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Touchdown Props.

I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 26 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.

2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props

The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving touchdowns projection. Target the Lowest Receiving Touchdown Totals for over wagers and the Highest Receiving Touchdown Totals for under wagers. I used DraftKings (DK), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) to find the best yardage totals for receivers as of June 17. FanDuel (FD) has yet to post Receiving Touchdown Totals.

Brolley’s Best Bets

Jordan Addison (Min) under 6.5 receiving TDs (-110, MetMGM). Placed May 8.

Addison ran crazy hot in the touchdown department as a rookie, scoring 10 times on 108 targets (9.3% rate), which was tied for the fourth-most TD receptions for any wideout. That included 7 scores on 52 targets (13.5%) in the eight games that Kirk Cousins appeared in. Cousins left for Atlanta this off-season and took his 5.6% Vikings’ career TD rate with him, and Minnesota replaced him with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy. Darnold owns a career 3.5% TD rate while McCarthy averaged just 22.6 pass attempts per game over his final two seasons at Michigan. Addison also notably scored 5 TDs in a four-game stretch with Cousins in which Justin Jefferson missed completely or left early because of his hamstring injury. Addison could have a bigger role in the first month of the season while T.J. Hockenson (ACL) is out, but he should take a step back in the scoring department like the rest of this offense with Cousins gone.

Calvin Ridley (Ten) over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-110, DraftKings). Placed June 17.

The Titans are set to move into a new era of offensive football after the unit previously revolved around Derrick Henry. Tennessee ranked 30th in pass attempts (494) and 29th in passing TDs (16) last season, but Brian Callahan comes from a Bengals offense that ranked in the top three in pass rate over expectation in each of the last two seasons. They signed Ridley to a $92 million contract to play the Ja’Marr Chase role in Callahan’s offense. Ridley led the NFL with 24 end-zone targets but he converted just 7 of those looks into touchdowns (29.2%). He also finished with the fifth-most air yards (1842) thanks to his 13.7-yard aDOT in his only season with Trevor Lawrence. Ridley will get opportunities to make plays downfield playing with Will Levis, who led the NFL in deep throw rate (20.8%) and hero throw rate (9.0%) among 42 QBs who attempted 150+ passes. Ridley has scored 7+ TDs in each of his first four full seasons, and he’s scored 36 career touchdowns on 516 targets (7.0% rate).

Jaylen Waddle (Mia) over 4.5 receiving TDs (-110, BetMGM). Placed June 19

I considered taking Waddle over his receiving TDs prop and then Scott Barrett and Ryan Heath’s “Must-Draft WRs” article put the prop over the top. They wrote, “Over the past three seasons, WRs have scored a TD for every 166 receiving yards on average. But for Waddle, that ratio was a TD for every 254 yards last year, making him one of the biggest positive TD regression candidates in the NFL heading into 2024.” Michael Pittman was the only other receiver lined at 4.5 receiving touchdowns or lower out of 15 receivers who owned receiving yard prop lines of 975.5 yards or higher. Pittman has scored on just 4.5% of his targets with a receiving TD for every 244.1 receiving yards gained to open his career. Waddle has been much more efficient at finding the end zone despite last year’s struggles, scoring on 5.0% of his career targets with a receiving TD for every 188.1 receiving yards gained. The Dolphins have the fourth-highest implied team total in Weeks 1-17 at 24.9 points, and we need just one of Raheem Mostert’s league-leading 21 TDs to move over to Waddle to clear his 4.5 receiving touchdown total.

Xavier Legette (Car) under 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-110, BetMGM). Placed May 8.

Bryce Young led the NFL’s worst passing attack last season with the Panthers ranking last in passing YPG (190.9) and tied for 31st in passing TDs (13). Carolina brought in Dave Canales before trading for Diontae Johnson and selecting Legette in the first round to try to right the shop for the first overall pick. Jonathan Mingo, last year’s second-round pick, had the most targets (85) without a touchdown reception. Legette will compete with Mingo to be the team’s #3 WR, and he’ll slot in behind Johnson and Adam Thielen for early-season targets. Legette could eventually become the #2 target behind Johnson, but he’ll need Young to take a significant step forward to top his season props. Legette has fierce competition for targets in an offense that has the second-lowest implied team totals in Weeks 1-17 at 19.6 points.

Brolley’s Leans

Davante Adams (LV) over 6.5 receiving TDs (+100, DraftKings)

Adams has reached 8+ receiving TDs in seven of his last eight seasons, and he leads the league in receiving TDs with 91 in that span — he ranks behind only Derrick Henry in overall touchdowns (93) in that span. Davante scored eight times in 2023 despite having one of the league’s worst quarterback situations between Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders will still have one of the league’s shakiest QB rooms once again after swapping Jimmy G out for Gardner Minshew, but Adams still projects to be one of the most active receivers after finishing third in target share (30.5%). Adams finished second in targets inside the 20-yard line (29) and third in targets inside the 10-yard line (15) a year ago. I’m slightly concerned about his quarterback situation bringing him down, but he’s shown no signs of slowing down entering his age-32 season.

Drake London (Atl) over 5.5 receiving TDs (-110, DraftKings)

London has scored just 6 TDs on his first 227 targets (2.6% rate) to start his career, but his fortunes are set to drastically change. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and drafted Michael Penix and they’re transitioning to a more pass-heavy attack under Sean McVay disciple Zac Robinson. Cousins has averaged 1.9 TDs passes per game since becoming a full-time starter in 2015, which started with Washington before he moved to Minnesota in 2018. For comparison, the Falcons averaged just 1.0 TD passes per game in each of London’s first two seasons under Arthur Smith with the likes of Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, and Taylor Heinicke quarterbacking the offenses. Cousins has produced at least two receivers with 6+ TDs in his five full seasons in Minnesota from 2018-22 and 12 total campaigns with 6+ TDs in that span. London has been a slight disappointment since the Falcons selected him eighth overall, but he’s primed for a breakout campaign with a major upgrade in his offensive environment.

Dalton Kincaid (Buf) under 5.5 receiving TDs (+110, DraftKings)

Kincaid found the end zone twice on 91 targets (2.2% rate) as a rookie, and he saw just 3 end-zone targets and only 4 targets inside the 10-yard line. Kincaid is the top candidate to lead the Bills in targets and receptions after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this off-season, but it’s yet to be seen if he’ll become a red-zone factor. Josh Allen has also established himself as one of the top goal-line threats with 15 rushing TDs. This prop should be set at 4.5 touchdowns and we’re getting plus-money odds for Kincaid to finish with 5 or fewer scores. I’m ultimately staying away from this bet for now since Kincaid has room to grow as a red-zone threat. Diggs (37 receiving TDs) and Davis (27) accounted for 45.7% of Buffalo’s passing TDs (64 of 140) in the last four seasons, and they also saw 72.2% of Buffalo’s end-zone targets (26 of 36) last season.

Mike Williams (NYJ) under 5.5 receiving TDs (-120, BetMGM)

Williams moves from one of the NFL’s pass-heaviest, quick-paced offenses from the last few seasons to what is likely to be more of a ball-control offense under Aaron Rodgers. Big Mike has scored more than 5 touchdowns just once in his last five seasons, and he’s entering his age-30 season coming off an ACL injury. He isn’t guaranteed to be the same explosive downfield option in his first season with the Jets, and Rodgers may not be as effective attacking downfield since he’s entering his age-41 season off of an Achilles injury. The Jets are bringing Williams along slowly and he’s going to get limited full-speed reps with his new quarterback in training camp. Rodgers has notably struggled to get on the same page with new receivers throughout his career. I see way more potential pitfalls looming ahead for Williams in his first season away from Los Angeles.