The 2024 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2024 NFL Receiving Yard Props and it’s time to dive into the 2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds for the top receivers. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave and a few additional wagers I considered.
Tyreek Hill cashed the third-shortest odds at +950 with an NFL-best 1799 yards last season. He beat out CeeDee Lamb (1749, +1800) for the honor as no other receiver topped 1515 yards. Hill is the favorite to repeat as the league leader in receiving yards entering his age-30 season at +500 odds. He’s followed closely by contenders like Lamb (+600), Justin Jefferson (+700), Ja’Marr Chase (+800), and Amon-Ra St. Brown (+900) at 9/1 odds or shorter.
I previously broke down the 2024 NFL MVP Odds, the 2024 NFL Division Odds, the 2024 NFL Playoff Odds, the 2024 NFL Receiving Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Yard Props, the 2024 NFL Passing Touchdown Props, the 2024 NFL Rookie of the Year awards, and the 2024 NFL Rookie Props. Subscribers can see all 30 of the NFL Futures bets I’ve already placed for the upcoming season.
Receiving Yards Leaders From the Last Decade
| Year | Receiver | Age | Receiving Yards | Odds (rank) |
| 2023 | Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 29 | 1799 | +950 (3rd) |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson (Min) | 23 | 1809 | +800 (1st) |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 28 | 1947 | +3500 (t-19th) |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs (Buf) | 26 | 1535 | +5000 (t-25th) |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas (NO) | 26 | 1725 | +1000 (4th) |
| 2018 | Julio Jones (Atl) | 29 | 1677 | +400 (2nd) |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown (Pit) | 29 | 1533 | +375 (1st) |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton (Ind) | 26 | 1448 | +2600 (9th) |
| 2015 | Julio Jones (Atl) | 26 | 1871 | +600 (1st) |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown (Pit) | 26 | 1698 | +1600 (7th) |
Historical Hints
The favorite has led the league in receiving yards four times in the last decade. Tyreek Hill (+950) became the oldest receiver to lead the league in receiving yards since Julio Jones (+400) and Antonio Brown (+375) also did it in their age-29 season in consecutive seasons in 2018 and 2017. In 2022, Justin Jefferson (+800) became the youngest receiver to pace the NFL in receiving yards since Josh Gordon came from out of nowhere to do it in 2013. Stefon Diggs (+5000) and Cooper Kupp (+3500) were long-shot winners in 2020-21, and they both did it after major changes before their monster campaigns. The Rams traded for Matthew Stafford before Kupp’s season, and Diggs went from Minnesota to Buffalo prior to his standout season.
A pace of at least 100 yards per game has been needed to lead the league in five of the last six years and seven times in the last decade. Receivers in their age-26 to age-29 seasons have been the sweet spot to lead the league in receiving. Jefferson is the only receiver to fall outside of that range in the last decade.
2024 NFL Most Receiving Yards Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points receiving yards projection. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Passing Yards to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), Caesars (CZR), and ESPN Bet (ESPN) as of June 20.
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Receiving Yards | Shortest Odds for Most Receiving Yards |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 1595 | +600 (ESPN/DK) | +500 (FD/MGM) |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 1455 | +800 (FD) | +600 (MGM) |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 1395 | +1100 (DK/FD) | +700 (MGM) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 1385 | +1300 (FD) | +800 (MGM) |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 1215 | +2300 (FD) | +1400 (DK) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 1200 | +1200 (FD) | +900 (CZR) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 1200 | +2800 (FD) | +1400 (DK) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 1190 | +1300 (FD/ESPN) | +900 (MGM) |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 1185 | +4000 (FD) | +2200 (DK) |
| Marvin Harrison (Ari) | 1175 | +3000 (ESPN/CZR) | +2500 (DK) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 1145 | +2500 (FD) | +1400 (CZR) |
| Jaylen Waddle (Mia) | 1065 | +3500 (ESPN/CZR) | +2500 (DK/MGM) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 1050 | +4900 (FD) | +1800 (MGM) |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 1050 | +3300 (FD) | +1800 (ESPN) |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 1050 | +7500 (FD) | +2500 (DK) |
| George Pickens (Pit) | 1045 | +5000 (ESPN/CZR) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 1015 | +3800 (FD) | +2000 (MGM) |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 1010 | +4100 (FD) | +1600 (CZR) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 1005 | +4600 (FD) | +2000 (DK) |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | 1005 | +2800 (FD/CZR) | +2000 (DK/MGM) |
| Christian Kirk (Jax) | 1005 | +8000 (CZR) | +4400 (FD) |
| Kyle Pitts (Atl) | 1005 | +11000 (FD) | +5000 (DK/MGM) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Sea) | 1000 | +5000 (FD) | +3000 (DK/MGM) |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 975 | +12000 (FD) | +5000 (DK/MGM) |
| Trey McBride (Ari) | 975 | +12500 (CZR) | +8000 (DK/MGM) |
| Michael Pittman (Ind) | 950 | +4000 (FD) | +2000 (MGM) |
| Receiver | FP Projection | Longest Odds for Most Receiving Yards | Shortest Odds for Most Receiving Yards |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 945 | +5500 (FD) | +3000 (MGM) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 940 | +8000 (MGM) | +3500 (CZR) |
| Amari Cooper (Cle) | 915 | +5000 (FD/CZR) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 915 | +7500 (CZR) | +5000 (DK/MGM) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 905 | +7500 (CZR) | +4000 (DK) |
| Dalton Kincaid (Buf) | 905 | +15000 (CZR) | +10000 (DK/FD/MGM) |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 895 | +4200 (FD) | +2800 (DK) |
| Sam LaPorta (Det) | 895 | +9000 (FD) | +4000 (DK/CZR/MGM) |
| Calvin Ridley (Ten) | 890 | +10000 (FD) | +3000 (DK/MGM) |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 880 | +7500 (ESPN/CZR) | +6000 (DK) |
| Stefon Diggs (Hou) | 855 | +5000 (FD) | +2200 (DK) |
| Zay Flowers (Bal) | 855 | +6500 (FD) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 835 | +12000 (FD) | +5000 (DK) |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 835 | +10000 (FD) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 825 | +10000 (FD) | +3500 (MGM) |
| Jameson Williams (Det) | 810 | +16000 (FD) | +6000 (DK) |
| DeAndre Hopkins (Ten) | 800 | +5500 (FD) | +4000 (DK/CZR) |
| Jordan Addison (Min) | 795 | +12000 (FD) | +4000 (DK/MGM) |
| Diontae Johnson (Car) | 790 | +12000 (FD) | +6000 (ESPN) |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 780 | +19000 (FD) | +7000 (DK) |
| Keenan Allen (Chi) | 775 | +9500 (FD) | +3000 (DK) |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 770 | +11000 (FD) | +8000 (DK/MGM) |
| George Kittle (SF) | 770 | +12000 (FD) | +5000 (MGM) |
| Joshua Palmer (LAC) | 770 | +15000 (ESPN/CZR) | +8000 (DK) |
| Tank Dell (Hou) | 760 | +10000 (ESPN) | +4000 (DK) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Garrett Wilson (NYJ) most regular season receiving yards 2024-25 (+2800, FanDuel). Placed June 21.
Wilson has registered a pair of 1000-yard seasons in his first two years with the miserable Zach Wilson throwing him the majority of his targets. As a rookie, Wilson averaged a strong 75.6 receiving YPG in four starts from proven NFL QB Joe Flacco, including his first three professional games. He otherwise averaged 59.4 receiving YPG playing with Wilson and a hodgepodge of journeyman backups the last two years. Among receivers with 100+ targets, Wilson ranked 31st out of 39 receivers in catchable target rate (76.1%) in 2023 and 29th out of 33 receivers (75.2%) during his rookie season.
Wilson finished first in air yards share (45.8%) and eighth in target share (27.1%) a year ago, and he’s set to see a significant quarterback upgrade with Aaron Rodgers returning to the lineup this year, which should help his 1.64 YPRR rise significantly. Davante Adams was in the mix to have the most receiving yards in three of his last four seasons playing with Rodgers, averaging 92+ receiving YPG in 2018, 2020, and 2021. Wilson’s top target competition will come from a 30-year-old receiver coming off ACL surgery. Mike Williams has a lengthy history of injury issues and he’ll have limited practice reps with Rodgers before he sees his first game action in September or potentially later. Wilson, 24, checks in on the young side of the 26-to-29-year-old sweet spot for this honor, but Justin Jefferson led the league in receiving yards in his third season in 2022.
Chris Olave (NO) most regular season receiving yards 2024-25 (+3000, FanDuel). Placed June 21.
Olave saw his targets (138>119) and receiving yards (1123>1042) rise in his first two seasons, and he’ll step into an even bigger role entering his second season with Derek Carr at the helm. He ranked 15th in target share (23.7%) in his sophomore season and he could be among the league leaders with Michael Thomas out of the picture for the entire season. Thomas registered a 17.7% target share in his nine healthy contests, and Olave posted 94+ yards in four of his last seven games without Thomas. The Saints are extremely thin at receiver behind Olave with vertical specialist Rashid Shaheed and an injured Juwan Johnson competing for targets.
Olave’s biggest roadblock to a top-five finish in target share is Derek Carr’s overreliance on checkdown passes to Alvin Kamara and the rest of his backs. Carr finished fourth in checkdown rate (13.5%) behind greats like Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson, and Justin Fields. Olave could push for a monster campaign if new OC Klint Kubiak can push Carr to play a little aggressively. Justin Jefferson finished second in receiving yards (1616) in Kubiak’s only full season as a playcaller during Jefferson’s second year in 2021. Jerry Jeudy also excelled during Kubiak’s brief stint calling plays for the Broncos, averaging 6.2 receptions and 87.2 receiving yards per game under Kubiak. Olave, 24, could be the next young WR Kubiak unlocks as a player. He checks in on the young side of the 26-to-29-year-old sweet spot for this honor, but Jefferson led the league in receiving yards in his third season just two seasons ago.
Brolley’s Leans
Puka Nacua (LAR) most regular season receiving yards 2024-25 (+2300, FanDuel).
Nacua is coming off a historic rookie campaign with an NFL-record 1486 receiving yards. Not too shabby for a fifth-round pick. He benefited from Cooper Kupp missing the first four games and playing through injuries when he was on the field, but Nacua still owned a strong 26.8% target share (11th) while averaging an excellent 2.75 YPRR (9th) overall. Kupp is hardly a lock to remain healthy in his age-31 campaign after grinding through multiple ailments last season. It doesn’t hurt that Nacua is playing with the quarterback who has produced the most receiving yard titles since he broke into the league in 2009. Matthew Stafford helped Kupp (2021) and Calvin Johnson (2011-12) to three combined receiving yards crowns. Nacua could eventually become Stafford's next league-best receiver in the near future depending on the health of Kupp and Stafford moving forward. Nacua, 23, is on the young side of the 26-to-29-year-old sweet spot to lead the league in receiving yards, but his time could come early if Kupp is unable to stay healthy.
Davante Adams (LV) most regular season receiving yards 2024-25 (+4100, FanDuel).
Adams has led the NFL in receiving TDs twice in 2020 and 2022, but he’s never led the league in receiving yards. He’s come close with four different seasons with 1300+ receiving yards, which included a pair of third-place finishes in 2021-22. His window to do it has mostly likely passed as he enters his age-32 campaign since nine of the last 10 league leaders have accomplished the feat from 26 to 29 years old. Adams hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down just yet. He continued to be a ball hog with the third-highest target share (30.5%) and the third-highest air yards share (44.1%) last season. The Raiders drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, who is likely to put a dent in Adams’ target dominance. He’ll also have to overcome some of the NFL’s weakest QB play from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Adams has some chips stacked against him, but he could show he’s still one of the more dominant receivers if Minshew proves to be an upgrade on last year’s QB play.
D.J. Moore (Chi) most regular season receiving yards 2024-25 (+4900, FanDuel).
Moore has way more target competition than he’s previously faced in his career, but his +4900 odds are far too long for a receiver of his caliber. He could receive the best QB play of his career after Chicago drafted Caleb Williams first overall, and Shane Waldron will run a more uptempo, pass-heavy offense than he has ever played in. The Seahawks finished eighth in pass rate over expectation (3.6%) and third in seconds between snaps (25.5 seconds) last season under Waldron. Moore is a much better fit for Williams’ out-of-structure playing style than Keenan Allen, who is a better fit with quarterbacks who play with timing and rhythm. Moore should benefit the most from Williams’ play-making ability after posting an 11.7-yard aDOT with Justin Fields, which he turned into an impressive 2.46 YPRR. Moore will need some help to pace the league in receiving, but Allen has missed 11 games in the last two seasons entering his age-32 season and Rome Odunze could get out of the blocks slower as a rookie. Moore, 27, is also
