Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 9 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Caleb Williams

As recently as Week 6, Williams appeared ready to challenge Jayden Daniels and others for NFL Rookie of the Year honors. In the four games before Chicago's Week 7 bye, this year's No. 1 overall pick completed 69.9% of his passes for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns — one TD shy of the league lead over that stretch.

Williams was tied for the league lead with 18 deep throws, which contributed to a solid 8.1 aDOT (average depth of target) over that same time. His turnover-worthy throw rate was a respectable 3.0%, while 51.1% of his throws were deemed highly accurate (12th among quarterbacks with at least 50 pass attempts from Weeks 3-6), and 73.7% of his passes were considered catchable. Of the most importance, 25.8% of his drop-backs were pressured.

Unfortunately, Week 8 against the Commanders and Week 9 against the Cardinals has seen Williams regress back to his disappointing production to begin the season. In his other four outings (Weeks 1-2 and 8-9), he has completed 52.7% of his passes for 615 yards and no touchdowns. He has attempted slightly more deep throws (22) — resulting in a higher aDOT (9.5) — but longer throws are not his biggest problem by a long shot. (More on that in a bit.)

Across Williams' four "bad" weeks, his turnover-worthy throw rate has hardly changed (3.1%). What has changed are his highly accurate throws (41.2%), catchable throws (61.8%), and throwaways (13, five more than any other quarterback). All of these numbers point to one glaring problem: among quarterbacks who played in those same four contests, only Lamar Jackson (42.6%) was pressured at a higher rate than Williams (41.1%).

While one of Williams' many strengths is his improvisational abilities, rookies cannot be expected to handle that kind of pressure consistently. Furthermore, Jackson is much more athletic and experienced in handling such chaos in the NFL.

Week 9 served as a great example of why Williams is struggling lately:

Although right tackle Jake Curhan (No. 73) is a backup and took his first snaps for the Bears all season in Week 9, this play is inexcusable. Offensive linemen have to do a better job of anchoring against a pass rusher than he did in this rep.

Running backs are not expected to be perfect in blitz recognition or blitz pickup, but it is clear D'Andre Swift only took a cursory look at the defense before heading out for his route. Arizona safety Budda Baker (No. 3) did not hide his intentions to blitz, so it seems reasonable to conclude Swift did not prioritize the safety of his quarterback — at least on this play.

Defensive stunts are designed to confuse offensive linemen, but it is relatively rare for the rusher looping inside to go untouched on his way to the quarterback. Communication issues creep up often on subpar offensive lines, and the Bears are struggling in this area. Some of Williams' struggles are a byproduct of it.

Williams deserves his fair share of blame as well. Young quarterbacks are notorious for chasing the big play. That can be improved through more time on task and quality coaching. However, as the above clip shows, he is also not being set up to succeed. Much as he did throughout his time in the same position with the Seahawks, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron is not providing his quarterback the answers to the test. He also needs to give Williams more easy concepts to execute each week.

De’Von Achane

Correlation versus causation, Part I. In four full games without Tua Tagovailoa, Achane is averaging 9.8 carries for 35 yards and 2.3 catches for 12.3 yards. In four games with Tagovailoa, the second-year back is averaging 13.5 carries for 70 yards and seven catches for 63.3 yards. All five of Achane's touchdowns have come in games Tagovailoa has played.

What gives?

Even though Achane does most of his best work in the passing game, there is also a noticeable difference in his rushing production when Tagovailoa plays. In the four games with Tagovailoa, 5.6% of Achane's runs go for more than 15 yards (2.6% without). He averages 2.8 yards before and 2.4 yards after contact (1.9 and 1.7 without, respectively). Achane's yards per carry in different concepts is also dramatically different, as he averages 5.0 YPC regardless if he is running behind man/gap and zone blocking (3.1 and 3.7 YPC without, respectively).

While it may be too simplistic to suggest Tagovailoa being under center is the only reason for the huge differences, there is little question that his presence impacts how defenses play against Miami.

With that said, it's not Achane's 70 rushing yards per game with Tagovailoa in the lineup that is putting smiles on his fantasy managers' faces. Only four running backs who have played more than one game in a season have averaged 60 receiving yards for an entire season since 1985 (Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler in 2019, Marshall Faulk in 1999, and fullback Larry Centers in 1995).

While Achane is unlikely to reach those numbers for a full season, given the fact he had to play four games without Tagovailoa (he's at 37.8 entering Week 10), it should be noted that three of the four players mentioned in the paragraph above scored over 300 PPR fantasy points and two of them scored 399 or more. The one that did not top 300 fantasy points (Centers) amassed only 78 rush attempts during his special season.

Achane is the rare instance of a coach trusting one of his players to be the team's RB1 and WR2. On that subject:

It is not hard to understand why Tagovailoa is leaning so heavily on Achane, either. The offensive line play has declined from last year, which makes short and quick throws more advantageous for Tagovailoa. Targets behind or at the line of scrimmage should be caught roughly 90% of the time. In four "Tua games," Achane has a catch rate of 97% (28 of 29 targets). Achane is averaging just over nine yards per reception in those games, meaning the Dolphins are almost averaging a first down every time he gets the ball despite his -1.4 aDOT.

Achane has averaged 27.8 PPR fantasy points in the four games Tagovailoa has started this year, but there are reasons for concern in his quest to become the overall RB1 for the rest of the season.

He has already matched last season's workload (130 touches) and struggled to stay healthy on 12 touches per game as a rookie. He is averaging 16.2 now. Miami is 2-6 entering Week 10. It would not be shocking if he succumbs to injury at some point or if the Dolphins fall too far out of the playoff picture. The Dolphins may not see much reason to continue rolling the dice on the health of Achane or Tagovailoa, who is also a huge injury risk.

At some point, Miami will have little choice but to get rookie Jaylen Wright more involved as well. While most of his touches will likely come at the expense of Raheem Mostert, the latter is highly unlikely to become obsolete. Even if the duo steals two or three touches per game from Achane, it means he will likely lack the volume to keep pace with the likes of Saquon Barkley and (hopefully) McCaffrey.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Well, well, well … it is amazing what happens when a talented player can do when his main competition for targets (DK Metcalf) misses some time due to injury and has an offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb) who knows what he is doing. Seattle's competition played a huge role in JSN's huge Week 9, as the Rams have had their share of issues defending the slot at various points this season (Jauan Jennings' 46.5-point explosion in Week 3 being the most obvious example).

The biggest change for Smith-Njigba from the Seahawks' first seven games when Metcalf was healthy to the last two games when he was unavailable is Grubb's willingness to let JSN run a more complete route tree. That was particularly the case in Week 9. Over the first seven games, Smith-Njigba's 8.3 aDOT was the lowest of Seattle's top four receivers. In that time, he compiled a measly 448 air yards, well behind Metcalf's 887.

Things did not change all that much against Buffalo's underrated defense in Week 8 (7.0 aDOT, 49 air yards), but JSN went full-blown Metcalf with a 20.2 aDOT and 242 air yards against the Rams. (For the sake of comparison, Smith-Njigba's air-yard total in 17 games under Shane Waldron last season was 592.)

If there was one negative about his performance — in terms of him doing something close to this again once Metcalf is healthy — it might be that JSN only saw one target over the first 29 1/2 minutes of the game (on a screen play). From then on, it was almost as if Grubb realized he needed someone to replace Metcalf, as nearly every one of his remaining 12 targets traveled at least 20 yards in the air.

Curiously, that 22-yard screenplay was JSN's only Week 9 production that did not come in the final 30 seconds of the first half and with less than four minutes left in regulation, which is almost impossible to believe for a player who was targeted 13 times and finished with seven catches, 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

While the Rams made things a bit too easy for him on the drive he scored on at the end of the first half (an NFL defense should not give up this throw in a two-minute drill), Smith-Njigba more than proved his ability to make big-boy catches near the end of the fourth quarter. He held on to this catch on a slot fade with just under a minute remaining and again on the next play to send the game into overtime.

Grubb suggested Metcalf was one of the best wideouts in the league before the season. Metcalf has done nothing but reinforce that belief in 2024, so he should remain the alpha receiver in this offense for the foreseeable future. What most managers expected was for Smith-Njigba to make it obvious that he was ready to replace Tyler Lockett as the new primary sidekick. Although it has taken longer than many wanted, games like the one JSN enjoyed in Week 9 indicate that it is happening.

Mike Gesicki

Correlation versus causation, Part II. In the four games Tee Higgins has been sidelined due to injury this season, Gesicki is averaging 5.5 catches and 70.5 receiving yards - a number that is deflated by an 18-yard showing in Week 1. (In the other three outings without Higgins, he has recorded at least five receptions AND 73 receiving yards.) In the team's five contests with Higgins, he is averaging 1.6 catches for 14.2 yards.

What exactly is happening, and why is it Gesicki — as opposed to preseason hype machine Andrei Iosivas — who benefits the most from the absence of a perimeter receiver like Higgins?

Both players' route participation has remained roughly the same in both scenarios, as Gesicki has run a route only 6% more often with Higgins out of the lineup than with him in it. Iosivas' route participation has actually dropped in games without Higgins (from 85% to 71%).

The most likely answer to why Gesicki benefits so much is that Higgins's absence forces the Bengals to replace him on the outside with Iosivas. In the games Higgins has missed, Iosivas has run 70.9% of his routes on the perimeter. When Higgins is in the lineup, Iosivas has run 68.8% of his routes out of the slot. This suggests that Iosivas can rely more on his impressive athleticism inside but may lack the route-running chops to win outside consistently.

By contrast, Gesicki's slot rate is almost identical with Higgins out (65.1%) and Higgins active (66.3%). The most telling statistic that is driving Gesicki's production with Higgins out is that he is attracting 23.7% of the first-read and designed targets in those outings. If that number held up over the first nine games, he would rank right behind Brock Bowers for sixth in the league among tight ends. In games that Higgins has played, Gesicki has drawn only 6.1% of the first-read and designed targets.

Week 9 represents the ceiling of what Gesicki can do (five catches, 100 yards, and two touchdowns). While it also sheds some light on why the Raiders are struggling, plays such as this hitch route and this post route serve as undeniable proof that Gesicki is a big part of the game plan as a weapon out of the slot, especially when Higgins is out.