Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 8 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Jameis Winston

Deshaun Watson has managed to play only 19 games spanning three tumultuous seasons with the Browns since Cleveland sent six draft picks — including three first-rounders to Houston - to acquire him in March of 2022. In the 17 games in which he threw at least 18 times, Watson averaged 190.1 yards and 1.1 touchdowns through the air. He passed for more than 250 yards twice (no more than 289) and three touchdowns once.

In his first start with the Browns in Week 8, Winston threw for 334 yards and three scores in an upset of the Ravens. The most telling stat is one of the simplest: Watson threw for five touchdowns in five-plus games before tearing his Achilles in Week 7. Winston already has four despite logging about 64 minutes of action this season. Watson had Amari Cooper to throw to for the overwhelming majority of his time in Cleveland. Winston never had that luxury.

Not only is the ability to make tight-window throws one of the more important qualities for an NFL quarterback to have, but he must also possess the willingness to do it consistently. Winston did exactly that on his first pass attempt in Week 8 and has never been shy about taking chances - sometimes to his detriment. He also has to trust his receivers will do what they can to make plays for him.

Many of the advanced passing metrics surprisingly lean slightly in Watson's favor, but context is needed once again. Winston's average target depth is 10.8 yards (versus 7.3 for Watson). Despite that, Winston's average time to throw (2.37 seconds) is significantly lower than Watson's (2.76), which says a lot about how much more of an anticipatory passer Winston is. In turn, Winston has felt pressure at a significantly lower rate (21.4%) than Watson (46.5%).

Furthermore, Winston's 7.5% hero throw percentage (the percentage of attempts a quarterback makes an extraordinary throw that maximizes the result of the play) in a limited sample size is almost four times higher than Watson's (1.9%). In short, Winston is throwing the ball further downfield, getting the ball out quicker, anticipating better, and getting sacked less (13.25% sack rate for Watson versus 5.4% for Winston in his limited reps).

Now for some negative talk: there is a reason why Winston has become a bit of a journeyman in recent years. Although he has yet to throw an interception in 2024, his turnover-worthy throw rate of 3.8% this season is higher than Watson's (2.8%). However, Winston's current mark is much less than what it was in 2021 (6.8%) - the last time he started more than three games in a season. The throw right before his game-winning TD to Cedric Tillman in Week 8 was the second of two passes he threw that could or should have been intercepted.

The point is that while we should expect better decision-making from a 30-year-old Winston than he had earlier in his career, there is plenty of reason to believe the turnover-free honeymoon will come to a screeching halt sooner than later. With that said, the Browns will gladly live with a few aggressive mistakes in exchange for the kind of magic he delivered against Baltimore. He should be considered a strong fantasy QB2 with occasional QB1 upside moving forward.

James Cook

Cook's workhorse usage came as a shock to many over the second half of last season. After all, he was a 190-pound player who never handled more than 140 touches in a season during his four-year college career. However, the Bills had little choice but to give him 281 touches last season when free-agent addition Damien Harris was lost early to injury for the season. Buffalo appeared unwilling to rely so heavily on Cook again — especially once his efficiency started to decline late - this spring when it selected Ray Davis in the fourth round of the NFL Draft.

Davis was widely expected to be the well-rounded hammer that gave the Bills another option besides Josh Allen at the goal line and, at worst, bring a bit of a power element to complement Cook's slashing running style. He has not disappointed in that regard. Davis put up 152 total yards against the Jets in Week 6 — a game in which Cook missed due to a toe injury — which seemingly provided Buffalo an avenue to make the rookie a key part of the backfield.

The Bills went right back to Cook as the unquestioned lead back in Week 7 but watched Davis do more with less opportunity. However, the University of Georgia product responded in a big way in Week 8, becoming the fourth running back in as many weeks to run for at least 99 yards against the Seahawks.

While Seattle's leaky run defense contributed to his best day of the season, Cook also made his own luck. He finished the week with five missed tackles forced (T-third in the league in Week 8), 0.29 missed tackles forced per attempt (T-fifth among players with at least 10 carries), and 53 yards after contact (ninth).

Very little has changed regarding Cook or the way he runs since his college days. He is still a bit on the light side to be handling 16-plus touches per game. Still, a heavy workload becomes less of a problem if a runner possesses great anticipation, vision and patience — all skills he showed on this 18-yard run late in the first half and again on this 13-yarder late in the third quarter.

The one area Cook may have grown the most since his college days is his ability to run inside and do so with power. Unlike last season during which he handled 13.5% of the team's carries inside the 5, Cook leads the team at 44.4% this season. Runs like his second score in Week 8 are likely the reason why he is getting the work near the goal line that Allen and Davis were expected to share in 2024.

While Davis figures to steal more touches over the second half of the season, fantasy managers can feel confident in Cook's viability as a low-end fantasy RB1/high-end RB2 if he can continue running with the conviction he did against Seattle.

Puka Nacua

Receivers who run a 4.57 in the 40-yard dash at 201 pounds and post times of 4.36 seconds in the short shuttle and 7.32 seconds in the three-cone are not supposed to become NFL superstars. How did Nacua do it last year? One area where he excelled was after the catch, as he finished in a tie for first in the league with David Njoku last year for most yards after contact on receptions (291).

In his surprising return to action in Week 8 following a six-week absence, Nacua picked right up where he left off while earning a target on seven of his 21 routes. He finished the week fourth in the league in yards after the catch with 55 and fifth in yards after contact on receptions with 25. Fittingly, his first catch of the contest was a 13-yard screen that was almost entirely a product of his ability to run through contact.

Another area that made Nacua such a revelation last season was his willingness to work across the middle of the field and use his body to keep defenders from making a play on the ball. After head coach Sean McVay dialed up a pair of screens to get him in the game against the Vikings, Nacua owned the middle of the field and did most of his damage with crossers and slants.

Interestingly, Nacua was not targeted on any of the five hitch routes — the route he ran the most often in Week 8 — although there is probably not much that can be read into that based on a one-game sample from a receiver running about half of the routes he usually does following such a long layoff.

The one oddity in Nacua's resume from last season was a relative lack of touchdowns (six) and, more specifically, a lack of opportunities to draw looks in the end zone despite earning 160 targets. He was tied with teammate Cooper Kupp for targets inside the 10 (eight) last year, even though the latter played five fewer games and operated at far less than 100% in a few others. Nacua also held a mere 10-7 edge in end-zone targets as well.

Week 8 was a continuation of both trends, as Kupp finished with a 2-1 edge in end zone targets. Nacua did not draw a target inside the 20 and has yet to do so in 2024.

The lack of touchdown opportunities might be slightly disconcerting for fantasy managers, but it is likely the result of Matthew Stafford and Kupp looking at the defense with the same set of eyes based on their three-plus seasons together. While it may lower Nacua's ceiling slightly, it does not change the fact he is still a very strong fantasy WR1 option.

Ladd McConkey

McConkey was considered more of a route-running technician before a spectacular showing at the NFL Scouting Combine opened some eyes as to how good of an athlete he is. (I noted in his draft profile this spring that his testing numbers were almost identical to Garrett Wilson's.) While he struggled with injuries near the end of his time at the University of Georgia, the word most associated with him entering the league was "dependable."

The best part of McConkey's Week 8 breakout performance (his six catches, 111 receiving yards, and two touchdowns were all season highs) was that he proved just how much more he has to offer than being a dependable short-area target who gets open. In fact, his head coach (Jim Harbaugh) made a rather bold statement in comparing his ability to win in contested-catch situations to former Panthers and Ravens standout Steve Smith. (It turns out Harbaugh thinks McConkey is a great guy as well.)

McConkey earned the Smith comparison and then some in Week 8 against the Saints, first displaying his ability to win a contested catch and then showing off his run-after-catch ability en route to a 60-yard touchdown. His second score was arguably more impressive, combining the ability to play the ball in the air with the presence of mind to keep his feet inbounds despite fighting through contact. It is also the kind of throw a quarterback makes only if he has complete trust that his receiver will make him look good. McConkey was about a foot short of scoring a third touchdown as well.

Through seven games, McConkey has recorded an air yard share of 27.6%, a target share of 22.2%, and a first-read share of 27% — all team highs. One of the most impressive parts of his advanced analytics profile is that he tied with Wilson, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb for the league lead with 11 missed tackles forced despite having played one less game than two of them.

McConkey may be on the verge of becoming what many expected him to be when the Chargers made him the 34th overall pick this spring - the unquestioned alpha receiver in a Justin Herbert-led passing attack. The Chargers' run-heavy approach under offensive coordinator Greg Roman will make it difficult for McConkey to enjoy a repeat of his Week 8 performance. Still, it appears he is beginning to emerge as Herbert's top playmaker.

Regardless of the offensive approach, Herbert's top playmaker will usually be worth starting in fantasy. With at least five receptions in three of his last four outings, McConkey is a strong WR3 option. Week 8 reminded us that he also has a tempting WR2 upside.