Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 6 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Tony Pollard

Pollard's star dimmed considerably from the start of the 2023 season to the end of draft season this year, as he failed to live up to the heightened expectations of many fantasy managers two summers ago. While he noted the fractured fibula and high-ankle sprain he suffered during the 2022 season did not feel right until around the second half of last season, the message fell on deaf ears in the fantasy realm as he routinely fell into the seventh or eighth round of most fantasy drafts.

The presence of Tyjae Spears affected his draft stock as well, as he was considered a carbon copy of Pollard in many ways. Instead of Spears being able to turn this into a split backfield, however, Pollard has emerged as one of the league's workhorses in 2024, handling at least 19 touches in four of five outings. A pair of injuries have contributed to Spears not being more involved than he has been, including a hamstring injury in Week 6 that might sideline him for multiple weeks.

Pollard may take over the backfield when Spears is healthy if the former continues to play as he has over the last few weeks. While such a move would be unlikely for the Titans, one of the reasons why Tennessee might consider it is if he continues to do "the little things" like this:

Much as he did during his last healthy season with the Cowboys in 2022, Pollard is harder to get to the ground than his 209-pound frame would suggest: he ranks fourth among backs with a 3.19 yards-per-carry after contact (minimum 50 rush attempts). A ridiculous 73.5% of his rushing yardage this season has come after contact, which is typically one of the easiest ways to gauge how well a back is running.

There are few things a coach likes more than a back who consistently gets more out of a run than what is blocked.

While the touchdown carry above may not conjure up memories of Earl Campbell, there are any number of backs in today’s game who would have been tripped up before coasting into the end zone.

For however long Spears is expected to be sidelined (likely at least a week or two), Pollard has a chance to be even more of a workhorse than he has been. He handled 90% of the snaps, 85% of the team's carries, and 92% of the backfield usage once Spears left the game in Week 6. He may not hit those marks in Spears’ absence, but anything close to those marks should come close to locking him in as a fantasy RB1.

Sean Tucker

“(Tucker's Week 6 performance is) definitely worthy of him making (the backfield) a three-headed monster. He took advantage of his opportunities. … He ran through the hole, he cut back, he made some great plays, he caught the ball well out of the backfield. So that gives us a three-headed monster."

- Bucs head coach Todd Bowles following the team's Week 6 win in which Tucker erupted for 192 total yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches

The NFL is a results-based business, but the idea of a running back being able to force his way into a committee based on one game should raise an eyebrow.

Did Tucker not show anything in practice or the offseason? If coaches are usually good evaluators of talent, how could Tucker not have flashed even a little bit that he was capable of something like this? How can a third-string running back produce significantly more yards in his first extensive action as a pro than Rachaad White did in any of his first 39 career games?

A little context: Tucker logged nine offensive snaps through five games before playing 28 in his breakout performance. He was apparently so unimpressive last season that the team gave up on trying to get him involved in the offense (15 carries and two catches) after three weeks, only to watch White average a thoroughly unimpressive 3.7 yards per carry. The team then added Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the NFL Draft this spring.

White deservedly receives much credit for his ability as a receiver, but how many of the following plays has he put on tape through two-plus years in the league? This 15-yard catch-and-run on a checkdown or this 36-yard touchdown catch on another checkdown? How about this 18-yard run? Or this 36-yarder?

Tucker had seven explosive plays (defined as runs of 10 yards or more and receptions of 15 yards or longer) in Week 6 alone. White totaled five explosive plays over the first five games combined. As PewterReport.com's Scott Smith suggested earlier this week, it would be "coaching malpractice" if Tucker is not a regular part of the offense moving forward.

Smith is right. With that said, the Bucs’ handling of Tucker thus far does not inspire confidence. Tucker is worth stashing, but he should not be counted upon again anytime soon unless White misses more time or Tampa Bay shows it is committed to keeping him involved.

Calvin Ridley

The frustration is real in Tennessee. It begins with Ridley and extends to head coach Brian Callahan, who is watching the receiver the Titans signed to occupy the Ja'Marr Chase role in his offense go to waste. In Week 6, Ridley became only the 13th receiver dating back to 1992 - when the league began tracking targets - to be held without a catch despite drawing at least eight targets.

The good news is that some very good receivers appear on that list (Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Chad Johnson, Carl Pickens, and Henry Ellard among them), and few receivers are considered important enough to a game plan to get a chance at that many unproductive targets. With that said, keeping good company with a bad stat does not do anything for fantasy managers.

How is it possible that a player capable of scoring two touchdowns against the vaunted Jets pass defense in Week 2 has totaled two catches for 14 scoreless yards on 14 targets in three games since? Furthermore, how is it possible days after Callahan specifically noted how important it was to get the ball in his hands "every which way we can"?

Let's look at how he was utilized in Week 6:

Did you accidentally drink something poisonous and need to vomit it up quickly? Consider watching all 8 of Calvin Ridley's "targets" in yesterday's game. This is not football. pic.twitter.com/bKbFyxJOWm

— Andy Holloway (@andyholloway) October 14, 2024

• Target 1: A likely option route knocked down on the line of scrimmage (early second quarter)

• Target 2: Deep ball that fell about five yards too short, likely because Will Levis was not able to step into his throw (early second quarter)

• Target 3: Levis threw a deep comeback too low, resulting in a batted ball by a linebacker about 15 yards downfield (early third quarter)

• Target 4: Levis appeared to slightly underthrew a comeback route but Ridley was well-covered (mid-fourth quarter)

• Target 5: Tight-window deep slant in between four defenders within about five yards of each other (mid-fourth quarter)

• Target 6: Levis hangs a deep ball up in the air, which was easily intercepted by Colts safety Julian Blackmon (late fourth quarter)

• Target 7: Levis slightly underthrows a skinny post, once again in heavy traffic (late fourth quarter)

• Target 8: Levis throws a bit late on a deep out, which was easily broken up by cornerback Samuel Womack (late fourth quarter)

Two recurring phenomena should be easy to spot from the breakdown above. Seven of the eight targets were either deep-medium or deep routes. Through five games, Levis is completing 52% of his medium (10-19 yards) and 33.3% of his deep (20+) throws. For the season, Ridley's average depth of target (aDOT) is 18.3, which is less than ideal when he is tied to a quarterback with a strong - but not particularly accurate - arm.

The second issue is when the targets are coming. Inability to get your alpha receiver more than three targets before the fourth quarter in three straight games is a play-calling AND quarterback issue.

Can Ridley be "saved"? Most likely. We already know he can do it — even with Levis — based on the fact he was the overall WR16 through two weeks following two of the toughest matchups a receiver could have in the Bears and the Jets.

While it is frustrating for Ridley's managers that Callahan has taken this long to understand that he may need to scheme up more designed looks for his top receiver, he recognizes he has been part of the problem.

Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, Ridley needs to be sitting on fantasy benches until Callahan makes the inevitable quarterback change to Mason Rudolph to "spark" the offense — much as Rudolph did for Pittsburgh late last season when he replaced Kenny Pickett. Rudolph may not be the second coming, but Levis’ decision-making and unpredictable play is dragging down what could be a decent passing attack.

Demario Douglas

This summer, No. 3 overall draft pick Drake Maye told reporters that Douglas reminded him of former University of North Carolina teammate Josh Downs:

“They do a lot of the same things. You can’t guard them in a phone booth…Twitchy and speed. Those two things you can’t work on. (Douglas has) them both."

It turns out that Downs kid might be pretty good after all. Maybe Maye comparing his current teammate to him is a good thing?

Douglas emerged as a decent emergency flex option late last year despite being something of an afterthought as a late sixth-round draft choice and starting the season behind DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kendrick Bourne. Working with the likes of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe at quarterback most of the time, Douglas commanded a 21.4% target share over the team's last 11 contests - even though he missed two games in that stretch.

The Liberty product fell out of favor in the eyes of many fantasy managers during a season-opening two-game stretch in which he drew only three targets, which resulted in him voicing his displeasure with his lack of involvement in the offense. Although it has been a bumpier road than it should have been, Douglas has earned exactly nine targets in three of the next four games, which is the kind of volume usually reserved for elite wideouts.

Most encouragingly, Douglas earned four more targets than any other New England pass-catcher in Maye's first career NFL start in Week 6. Not only did he draw nine targets again, but he also set a career-high with 92 yards and scored his first NFL touchdown. Three of his nine targets came on the team's first scoring drive, while another target in the fourth quarter resulted in his first touchdown as a Patriot.

Some of the best parts of his game (twitchiness, speed, heavy slot work, etc.) are diminished by the fact he is a 5-foot-8, 192-pound receiver stuck in a low-scoring offense that wants to run the ball. The problem with the team's offensive philosophy is that the offensive line is among the worst in the league, so fantasy managers putting their trust into Douglas could find themselves waiting for the Patriots to fall into negative game scripts every week before he gets going. Hoping for garbage-time production is a tough way to live in fantasy football.

Douglas has encouragingly posted a yards-per-route-run mark of 2.96 or better — including a season-high 4.0 in Week 6 — in his three nine-target games over the last month. Most encouragingly, Douglas served as Maye's first read on 33.3% of drop-backs last week. He has the ability to be a reasonable fantasy WR3 option, but the lack of touchdown upside will likely hold him back from being anything more most weeks.