Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.
I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.
Anthony Richardson
Week 3 was just the most recent example of the rollercoaster ride that will likely define the early part of Richardson's career. Accuracy will likely always be an issue for him, because he is asked to take his rocket launcher of an arm and often hit a target the size of a soda can. With that said, accuracy can often be improved via better footwork and fundamentals. Footwork and fundamentals (not to mention decision-making) are often improved through years and years of repetitions, which is not a luxury Richardson has been afforded.
Richardson's first interception against the Bears is drawing the public's ire more than anything else he did in Week 3, but his second one was the most alarming. While it is difficult to assign blame on the first interception because it was tipped, the second pick was a case of arm arrogance (irrational confidence in his arm), the kind of poor decision-making that is usually a product of limited experience or, most likely, a combination of the two.
NFL quarterbacks — not even ones with his arm strength — can live under the belief they can roll right and throw left without identifying the safety (or cornerback in this particular case) and think they will come away unscathed. Even if he is supposed to make that throw, he has to place it high and near the sideline to ensure his receiver is the only one who has a chance to catch it. The fact this play was the first one the Colts ran to begin the second half makes it that much worse because he had time to visualize it.
It is the job of a coach (or play-caller) to ask his players to do what they can do well first before asking them to do everything else. Head coach Shane Steichen spoke during the preseason about the need to emphasize Richardson's running ability - as opposed to protecting him from injury - but the opposite has been true to this point, as the second-year quarterback ranks sixth among quarterbacks with 18 rush attempts, well behind Jayden Daniels (38), Lamar Jackson (35), and Jalen Hurts (34).
As is the case with anything in football — especially as it relates to keeping players healthy — there is a fine line between too little and too much. Last season, Richardson recorded 10 carries in the two games he started and finished. (He is averaging six this season.) Whether he is hanging out in the pocket of his own volition or Steichen is encouraging him to do so, it might help Richardson's development to use him more as a runner. Putting more pressure on the defense to stop him as a runner should lead to easier looks, which in turn should do wonders for his confidence (and ability) as a passer.
Steichen's ability to make this tweak in his game planning will be important if his quarterback has any chance of enjoying a strong performance in Week 4 against the Steelers. Is it likely to happen that quickly? No. However, any progress made in that regard will be critical in Richardson taking full advantage of upcoming matchups against the Jaguars (Week 5), Titans (Week 6) and Dolphins (Week 7).
Richardson is a work in progress and will likely continue to be one for at least the next two to three years. Dramatic highs (here is another one) and inexplicable lows should have been the expectation all along — at least throughout his first 20 or so starts — for a player who entered the 2024 season with only 17 starts across his college and pro career.
That sentiment should have never been in question, especially after he missed most of his rookie season with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder that required surgery.
Chicago’s woeful rushing attack
One of the most enduring images from Week 3…
Ladies and gentlemen, the Chicago Bears offensive line.. pic.twitter.com/ZLfwfbrPUI
— NFL Memes (@NFL_Memes) September 23, 2024
If one game does not tell the story of a season, then one still frame from a game that usually sees teams combine for at least 120 plays tells us virtually nothing. (This four-minute clip highlighting Chicago OL Matt Pryor tells a more complete story.) However, the picture above symbolizes the Bears' overall offensive struggles. None of Chicago's healthy running backs are averaging even one yard before contact, and all of them have been stuffed on at least half of their runs, per the Fantasy Points Data Suite.
Roschon Johnson might be considered a potential savior for the Bears' backfield after churning out 30 yards on eight carries in his season debut. The good news is Johnson immediately walked into 12 semi-productive touches in his first game and was more productive than D'Andre Swift has been all season. The bad news is that it took an injury to career special teamer Travis Homer to get Johnson on the field and the presence of a Colts' run defense that allowed an average of 237 rushing yards entering Week 3 for Johnson to have some modicum of success.
When running games struggle as much as the Bears' is right now, there is usually enough blame to go around. The offensive line isn't getting enough of a push, the running backs start pressing and miss holes they might otherwise see, the quarterback (often a young one) tends not to check out of a loaded box for the sake of "establishing the run," and so on.
There is probably nothing that can be done during the season to affect Chicago's fortunes dramatically on the ground, but a potential answer could also be in the run concept the team has been using the most. While the Bears' 3.2 yards per carry on gap runs (76 yards on 24 running back carries) is still abysmal, it is nearly double their 1.7 YPC on zone runs (52 yards on 30 carries).
Even though Khalil Herbert and Johnson each ran better behind zone blocking last season, Swift has historically been more efficient behind gap blocking. Stylistically, it makes sense to use more gap runs to accentuate Herbert and Johnson's power and reduce how often Swift has to read multiple blocks. Gap scheme plays — such as power and counters — are more straightforward and typically require a running back to follow his lead blocker or a pulling lineman.
Swift's problem is that he has not been good with either concept this season (1.8 YPC in zone, 2.0 in man) and has generally operated better as the change-of-pace back throughout his NFL career. Unfortunately for his fantasy managers, Swift should probably be limited mostly to long down-and-distance and two-minute situations moving forward.
Jauan Jennings
There have been 505 instances of a player scoring at least three receiving touchdowns during a regular season game in NFL history, 565 instances of a player amassing at least 175 yards receiving, and 859 instances of a player catching at least 11 passes. Doing all three in the same game? That has happened 19 times. Surprisingly, it has occurred seven times since the start of the 2019 season.
The point of this history lesson is to remind fantasy managers of something they already know: Jennings is not going to be a league winner. His previous career highs: six catches, 94 yards and two scores in Week 18 of the 2021 season. His first touchdown in Week 3 came as the second read in the progression on a play-action fake, and his second score was on a scramble drill. His third TD was on a slow-developing wheel route.
Brandon Aiyuk (and his Week 3 Separation Win Rate of 46.9% — the league-best mark for the season) will eventually round into form. Deebo Samuel is expected to return to action within a week or two - and first-round selection Ricky Pearsall will likely return from IR around the same time.
Enough of the negative talk about his not-so-distant future. As often as Jennings appeared to be a secondary or tertiary read for Brock Purdy in the first half of Week 3, both head coach Kyle Shanahan and his quarterback realized the Rams did not have an answer for him after halftime. Jennings ended the game serving as Purdy's first read 42.9% of the time — more than double his previous season high (18.2 in Week 1) and significantly higher than his 10.1% first-read rate in 13 games in 2023.
It is much more likely that Jennings settles for four catches for 50 scoreless yards in Week 4 against the Patriots and does not come close to repeating Week 3, but that is not the point. Purdy and Shanahan have never been able to see Jennings in this light until now. If Samuel misses time again later this season, Jennings has a chance to be relevant in fantasy during Samuel's absence. That is not something we could say before about a player who has topped five catches three times and 60 yards receiving four times across his first 47 career games.
Diontae Johnson
Johnson posted a highly impressive Average Separation Score of 0.244 last season with the Steelers, a mark that ranked second in the league. If there was any question if he still has "it" despite a lackluster statistical showing in Pittsburgh in 2023, the aforementioned metric alone was enough proof he could get open as easily as any receiver in the league. Through the first two weeks of the season, however, it appeared Johnson was going to be victimized by bad quarterback play yet again.
Enter Andy Dalton. While no one will mistake him as the second coming, Dalton is, at worst, a high-level backup quarterback who proved in his only start last season that he can still light it up. "The Red Rifle" was just what the doctor ordered for Johnson, who nearly doubled his fantasy production from the first two games three drives into Week 3. What changed?
There are many good answers to the question, but let's focus on some interesting metrics. His Average Separation Score on slant routes against the Raiders (0.375) was considerably higher than last year's overall mark. His yards per route run (YPRR) on slants was exceptional (6.22). Johnson also ran more than twice as many slant routes in Week 3 (eight) than he did over the first two weeks combined (three).
Johnson's marks on three out routes were every bit as impressive (0.667 and 5.67, respectively). Another five of his routes were in/dig routes. His YPRR on those was 7.8.
Over the first two weeks, Bryce Young went 10-for-20 with two interceptions on those three particular routes. Dalton finished 10-for-10 in Week 3. While slants, outs, and digs are hardly layups in the pros, NFL quarterbacks need to be able to hit them with regularity. Combined with Young’s inability to do that and the bewildered look in his eyes after most of his series the first two weeks, head coach Dave Canales decided he had seen enough.
It is far too early to believe Dalton can play at the same high-level week after week, especially after defensive coordinators dust off their books on what he can and cannot do well at age 36. Fantasy managers also cannot assume Johnson is ready to enter the every-week WR1 conversation, but he could knock on that door in any given week if Dalton’s play remains steady.
The road ahead for Johnson will not be easy, as he will see a lot of Jaylon Johnson (Week 5), A.J. Terrell (Week 6), and Patrick Surtain II (Week 8) in three out of the next five contests. Regardless, we now know what is possible. That is a wonderful thing to be able to say less than a week after many of his fantasy managers had no idea what to do with him.
