Film + Analytics: 2024 NFL Week 11 Notes

Fantasy football is a game based on statistics, but statistics without context will tell lies. Great fantasy analysis should incorporate a blend of statistical and film analysis, which will be the goal of this column every week.

I will watch the condensed version of every game this season and highlight a handful of the most important developments from my game reviews each week for fantasy managers to consider moving forward.

Bo Nix

Head coach Sean Payton has repeatedly stated that he only needed to see 15 throws during Nix's private workout for the team before the draft to be sold on him as Denver's long-term starting quarterback. There have contradictory reports since then that Payton had Nix ranked as highly or higher than No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and just as highly as No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels.

Regardless of which report is correct, there is little doubt Payton was confident he had his man for the foreseeable future. In his draft profile this spring, I noted that, among many other things, he "consistently gets a great read of the defense" and has "exceptional ball placement on short and intermediate throws, leading to consistent YAC production." On the downside, he appeared to be more of a "see-it-and-throw-it" passer than an anticipatory one during his college days.

It seems clear at this point that Payton reached similar conclusions and has addressed most of the negatives I identified in his time with the rookie. While it is true that two of Nix's four touchdowns in Week 11 came on receiver screens (fitting the pre-draft narrative that Nix was little more than a system quarterback), several plays from the game prove Payton is meeting Nix in the middle by giving him defined throws while also maximizing his strengths.

Here are two:

Play 1: With 10:49 left in the first quarter (start watching the clip at 2:13), Marvin Mims (No. 19) goes in orbit motion from right to left to create eye candy for the defense. With so much of the attention going to Mims and Jaleel McLaughlin (No. 38) running a wheel route to occupy any linebacker who didn't follow Mims, the defense loses focus on Nate Adkins after he runs a delayed shallow cross and goes untouched into the end zone for a 12-yard score. This is a great example of a play-caller making things easy for his young quarterback by giving him an easy throw.

Play 2: This play (beginning at 5:18) is an example of the incredible growth Nix has made since his college film (or maybe an example of what he was not allowed to do in college). The motion tells Nix that Atlanta is in man coverage. As former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel notes in the analysis in the link above, Nix is eyeing safety Jessie Bates (No. 3) from the start. Nix has to be confident enough in the accuracy and timing of what turns out to be a 30-yard throw that he will be able to throw it over the linebacker and before Bates can get there, while also setting up Devaughn Vele (No. 17) for a run-after-catch opportunity.

Although it should be noted that Nix has played one more game than most quarterbacks have this season, it is stunning to see Nix lead the league with 45 deep throws. Only Josh Allen (57.8%) and C.J. Stroud (60.6%) have targeted their first read less than Nix (60.8%) among qualified signal-callers. The rookie ranks fifth in the highest average time to throw (2.77 seconds) and fourth in average time to sack (4.3). All three metrics suggest Nix is comfortable letting the play breathe and confident in his ability to escape pressure or navigate the pocket.

While it may feel a bit risky to put a lot of faith into a player who was considered the sixth-best prospect at his position just over six months ago, Nix has proven to be a quick study and should be trusted as a fantasy starter against all but the best pass defenses in NFL at this point.

Kyren Williams

Head coach Sean McVay has a well-earned reputation for being a coach who leans on one running back. From Todd Gurley to Sony Michel to Cam Akers to Darrell Henderson and Williams, McVay typically has no problem riding his workhorse until the wheels fall off. Are the Rams nearing that point with Williams or is he the victim of something else, such as a slight shift in philosophy or offensive line play?

Williams is not the same back in 2024 as he was in 2023. Last season, he posted an explosive run rate of 3.9%, a missed tackle forced rate of 0.21 and yards per carry before and after contact well over 2.0 (2.27 and 2.75, respectively). This season, those marks are 1.4%, 0.11, 2.02, and 1.91, respectively. His 21 missed forced tackles through 10 games this year are not even half of the number he recorded in 12 outings last year (49).

What gives?

It is virtually impossible to predict what a coach is thinking or when he will make a change, but Week 11 marked the first time since at least the Rams' Week 6 that Williams' opportunity share dipped below 85% (71.4%). Over the last three contests, only one of his 52 rushing attempts has gone for at least 15 yards. His yards per carry before contact over that same stretch is better than it was last season (2.35) - which suggests the line play is improving - but his yards per carry after contact is lower than any other time frame mentioned up to this point (1.83).

To be fair to Williams, his offensive line has been a revolving door for most of 2024, as only right guard Kevin Dotson has played every snap. Every other projected starter up front has missed at least two games, and two linemen have missed seven. He has even missed Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua — each of whom is an excellent run-blocker but has missed significant time this season.

Williams' 5.7 yards per carry in Week 11 should have been expected because it came against a Patriots defense are a middle-of-the-pack run-stopping unit. However, it was the first time since the bye that he had topped 4.2 YPC. However, even that comes with a caveat. His 18-yard run against New England accounted for 21% of his rushing yards and was partly due to a poor tackle attempt after about 10 yards.

Los Angeles has a favorable schedule for its running backs over the remainder of the season once it hosts the Eagles in Week 12, but it is worth asking how seriously McVay is considering possibly getting Blake Corum more involved. When we consider that Williams has yet to play more than 12 games in a season and has fallen short in some important efficiency metrics, McVay is nearing the point where he needs to consider the possibility.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Can a 30-year-old receiver break out? There is always a chance that something unlikely COULD happen. With that said, one must question why Valdes-Scantling has hit big in two consecutive weeks with Derek Carr in 2024 when he was such a hit-or-miss proposition for most of his first seven NFL seasons while playing with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes.

His only comparable run was during an extended stretch during the second half of the 2020 season when he posted 2-53-2, 4-149-1, 6-85-1, and 2-87-1 lines in Weeks 9, 10, 14, and 17. He was blanked in four of the other five weeks (12, 13, 15 and 16). And there within lies the problem. Not only has he never sustained production for very long, but he is also a player who has been viewed (and used) as little more than a deep threat by three well-run NFL teams.

Before we go any further, let us consider the visual evidence of what he has done over the last two games for the Saints after the Bills deemed him expendable just over a month ago.

On his first play in Week 10, Valdes-Scantling ran past three defenders who did not track the ball or attempt to make a play to knock it away on a 40-yard deep shot from Carr. On the next drive, MVS got behind cornerback Clark Phillips III on a 67-yard gain. Valdes-Scantling and Carr connected on a second touchdown three plays after that from 2 yards out. He was not targeted thereafter. In Week 11, the Browns busted a coverage assignment and allowed MVS to go virtually untouched 71 yards for a touchdown on a shallow cross.

Even at his age, Valdes-Scantling is one of the fastest players in the NFL. What he is not is a nuanced route-runner who will threaten defenses at all three levels or a great contested-catch player. While his route participation rate jumped up to an encouraging 76.7% in Week 11, his average depth of target over the last two games is 26.4. While that is a great number when the receiver catches the ball, it is not a number that allows any degree of consistency, given how difficult the passes are to complete.

Fantasy managers are playing a high-risk game if they believe that defenses will continue to let MVS run past their corners when the offense as a whole is average at best. He should still be considered a high-risk flex option at best.

Jonnu Smith

Maybe Arthur Smith was onto something …

All kidding aside, let's talk about the most likely reason Smith is relevant yet again. At its best, the Dolphins' offense is built on speed. However, we are not talking strictly about 40-yard dash times of running backs, receivers, and tight ends, although that is part of the deal. We are also talking about head coach Mike McDaniel running an offense that emphasizes getting the ball out of the quarterback's hand quickly. That is especially the case when Tua Tagovailoa is under center.

With that in mind, Tagovailoa easily leads the league in the lowest average time to throw (2.2 seconds), greatly contributing to his league-low pressure rate of 19.7%. (Both marks among quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts.) Getting the ball out that quickly means a quarterback will throw short more often than not, which explains Tagovailoa's league-low 5.9 aDOT.

While Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will see their fair share of throws in this range, an aDOT this low usually means at least one running back and one tight end is feasting, which is exactly what is happening in Miami. In six Tagovailoa starts this season, Smith is one of four Dolphins with at least 26 targets. Since Smith and Achane usually have the easiest individual matchups - typically a linebacker or safety - it makes sense they are seeing so much action.

With that said, Smith hauled in six of his seven targets against the Raiders in Week 11. Three of his six catches were behind the line of scrimmage or no more than five yards down the field, including this designed play for his first touchdown.

Of the three intermediate or deep targets he caught, this corner route was the only one that could be deemed as a challenging throw and/or catch. Fifteen of his career-high 101 receiving yards came on a meaningless play to end the first half, while the other 57 came on a blown coverage late in the fourth quarter.

None of this is meant to take away from Smith's second-career 100-yard game and third-career two-touchdown effort. It should provide perspective on a player who amassed 111 receiving yards on 12 catches and 16 targets over the previous three games combined.

Smith can be a YAC monster (his 250 yards after the catch ranks fourth among tight ends), but his huge Week 11 performance was much more an indictment of the Las Vegas defense than anything he did. Given the state of the tight-end position, he is a TE1 — albeit a low-end one — with a fair amount of upside.