Dynasty Market Report: 2024 Week 4

We are officially three weeks into the fantasy football season. This has been a wild start filled with injuries, underwhelming performances, and massive breakouts. We have identified teams that are really bad (hello Jacksonville Jaguars), and have had teams that have been pleasant surprises (Minnesota and Seattle come on down).

Much like managers in redraft, dynasty managers have had to roll with the punches. League outlooks have shifted. More than a fair share of contenders have become rebuilders, and some teams that entered the season with a younger roster have exceeded expectations are are suddenly 3-0 and challengers to league championships (hello, Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels managers).

Every week at Fantasy Points, I will attempt to sift through the weekly madness and identify players who have lost and gained dynasty value. We do not want to overreact, but we do want to identify edges that can help us build and maintain winning dynasty rosters.

Stock Up

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers, 21 Years Old

Dave Canales finally benched Bryce Young, and the early returns show why fantasy managers were so excited about his hire this offseason. Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson each finished Top 6 in their positional scoring for the week. Andy Dalton has not only made this offense functional, but he has made it fun. Waiting in the wings is Jonathon Brooks. Hubbard’s strong stat line and balanced production (5 catches for 55 yards) are a glimpse into the future for one of Dynasty’s most exciting RB prospects. Brooks can make a significant fantasy impact during the second half of the season, and he will explode in 2025.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 22 Years Old

We are in the era of running back by committee. The philosophical switch from offensive coordinators riding a bell cow RB into the ground has rapidly switched to utilizing multiple backs. This has coincided with some of the greatest collective production from low BMI, sub-200-pound RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs, De’Von Achane, Kyren Williams, and James Cook were all deemed undersized as prospects but all finished as RB1s in 2023 PPG. Bucky Irving looks like the next low BMI high-value touch fantasy football ATM machine. He has led Tampa Bay in rushing yardage for three straight games and appears ready to take over the majority of the backfield touches. We still have not seen the full extent of what Irving can bring to the table. Last year at Oregon, Irving led the nation in receptions by a RB with 56 receptions.

Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets, 20 Years Old

Any notion that Allen’s Week 2 outburst was some sort of a fluke was quickly put to rest in Week 3. The Jets have won consecutive games, and they have done so with a Thunder and Lightening approach. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are co-existing and producing. Hall finished with 18.3 points and Allen added 9.8. Allen is going to see double digit weekly touches every week moving forward. Everyone knew that Allen was a big back who could potentially absorb volume as a runner, but he has also been targeted 7 times over the last two games. If Hall were to miss time, Allen would be a league winner. One other positive: Allen is only 20 years old — he will be only 23.5 when he receives his second contract.

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings, 27 Years Old

Wait, Theo, this is a dynasty article. Why are we talking about Sam Darnold? Darnold’s strong play has caught the attention of fantasy managers. I had him as my top Waiver Wire addition among all players available in 70% of leagues or more this week. He is currently leading the NFL in TD passes and doing it without two of his top 3 options in the passing game. He is also doing it without TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison. This offense is trending up and could be an absolute force during the second half of the season.

Darnold is only 27 years old. Plenty of teams will view him as an immediate upgrade at the position and a player they will target in free agency if he can maintain close to his current production level. There is also a non zero chance that he remains Minnesota’s starting QB, with JJ McCarthy returning from injury to a backup role. Darnold has multiple outs to return dynasty value. If you have him rostered, do not be in a hurry to sell.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders, 23 Years Old

You know that Daniels is good, but it is time to discuss his historical greatness. Daniels is on pace to outscore some of the highest-scoring Rookie QBs of all time. If the season ended today, he would outscore Cam Newton (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), and Justin Herbert (2020), making him the greatest rookie QB ever in fantasy football. He is currently QB2 behind Josh Allen overall. We still have not even touched the surface on what a Daniels rushing spike week looks like. He may be the #1 overall pick in 2025 dynasty Superflex startups.

Stock Down

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City, 25 Years Old

Am I unfairly punishing a player for an injury? Sure, but that is the nature of the beast. You not only do not have Pacheco for the length of his time spent on the IR, but we have no guarantees that he will ever return to a bell cow workload. The best pro-Pacheco argument is that none of the Chiefs RBs inspire any sort of long-term confidence - or, for that matter, much short-term confidence. But there is a good chance that The Chiefs will settle into an offensive flow that will not be turned on its head when Pacheco returns. There is also the variable that he will not fully recover this season. Knee injuries can be a cruel outcome- especially for RBs. One of the arguments for Pacheco this season was his lack of backfield competition, and the Chiefs could easily add an RB in free agency or the NFL Draft this coming offseason. Pacheco’s long-term dynasty value insulation is not as strong as some dynasty managers may think.

Last week before Sunday’s games, I traded Pacheco for Zach Charbonnet in a $750 entry FFPC dynasty league. That is not a flex because of Charbonnet’s big day, but rather to show you the trades out there.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts, 26 Years Old

We are in full-on panic mode with Pittman in dynasty. He has legitimately dropped from a high-end WR2 to a — gulp — WR4. Pittman may be the worst offensive fit for any well-known skill position player in football right now. No exaggeration. His game is based on high volume and catchable targets. Right now, he has neither.

The most frustrating thing for Pittman managers is that some of his metrics are relatively unchanged. He still has an alpha-like 27.4% target share — an almost equal number to his 2023 mark of 28.1. The issue is total targets are down (20) — way down. And with Anthony Richardson’s early struggles, many of his targets are uncatchable. It seems impossible that he will finish anywhere near his 2023 totals of 109 receptions and 1152 receiving yards, and 80% of those numbers would be considered a win at this point.

Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos, 24 Years Old

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears, 25 Years Old

What a difference a few weeks makes. Both these players look fried. Cooked. Not usable. Roster cloggers. Do I need to go on, or is this making rostering either of them more painful? Ok, so how do we get out from under them in dynasty? When it comes to players like this with name brand value, I will go full scorched earth and send a dynasty trade offer with my 2025 3rd round rookie pick along with one of these backs for anyone’s 2025 2nd-round rookie pick. In advanced mathematics schools, they teach the formula like this:

• Player + 3rd Round Pick = 2nd Round Pick

That may seem low to you, but neither of these players are going to gain any value. The more likely outcome is they both continue to lose value. Tyler Badie looked much more effective as a runner than Williams did at any point this season. Swift looks like he is going to be usurped by Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert or a combination of both. The 2nd Round pick will be more valuable than either and a piece that can actually help you make another deal. Just hope that someone in your league is feeling nostalgic.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 25 Years Old

I referenced White as a potential loser in Week 1, but I want to reiterate it again heading into Week 4. In the NFL when one door opens, another closes. Well, that is not always the case due to RBBC backfields, but an increased opportunity for Irving will mean a lesser role for White. The Bucs have scored 20 and 7 points, respectively, over their last two games. Thes low scoring weeks have coincided with one of the greater yards per carry discrepancies between a starting running back and their backup. So far this season, White has 66 rushing yard on 31 carries. Irving has 154 rushing yards on 25 carries. His reception totals are propping up his overall production - and this too could be unsustainable if Irving cuts into that as well. White has long term dynasty value because he has size and receiving ability, but we have already seen his best fantasy season, and there is no reason to believe he will ever reach RB1 status ever again.

Dynasty Waiver Wire Watch List

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders, 23 Years Old

Tucker played well in Las Vegas’ loss to Carolina. He finished with 7 catches for 96 yards and a TD. If Davante Adams were traded, Tucker would become a fulltime WR. He has day two NFL Draft capital.

Emanuel Wilson, RB, Green Bay Packers, 25 Years Old

Wilson is doing his best MarShawn Lloyd imitation. He finished Week 3 with 85 combined yards and a TD. The Packers coaching staff loves him.

Tyrone Tracy, RB, New York Giants, 24 Years Old

Tracy is the next man in if Devin Singletary were to miss time. He is a bigtime athlete with good size. Tracy had 7 touches in New York’s Week 3 win.

Elijah Higgins, TE, Arizona, 23 Years Old

Trey McBride is in the concussion protocol. Higgins makes for a fun spot start if McBride is not cleared before Sunday’s game. A former WR, Higgins is 6’3”, 235 and runs a 4.54 40. He caught a TD in Week 1.

Andy Dalton, QB, Carolina Panthers, 36 Years Old

Dalton has dynasty utility as a “Get out of Jail Free” card for a managers looking for a plug-and-play replacement for a struggling starter. He also provides a potential asset in trades if another manager loses their starter to an injury. Just remind the opposing manager how well Joe Flacco performed last season when you send your offer.