Welcome to Tom Brolley’s Best Bets: Week 13. I’m a senior writer and owner at Fantasy Points who specializes in betting and fantasy analysis. This will be the main hub for my favorite NFL bets throughout the season. I will give my favorite spread and player prop bets every week through the Super Bowl. My first wagers of the week will be posted around 9:30 a.m. on Mondays. Be sure to check back regularly up to kickoff to see what wagers I have lined up for the week ahead.
Initial spread picks will be posted around 9 a.m. Mondays. Join our “NFL-Betting” Fantasy Points Discord to see our staff's wagers as soon as we make them! Also, be sure to check out Justin Varnes’ weekly IDP Prop Bets and our entire staff’s Best Bets!
PLAYER PROPS
2024 Player Props Record: 82-54 (60.3%, +20.41 units); W12: 5-4 (+.6)
All wagers with negative odds are to win one unit and all wagers with positive odds are one-unit bets.
Thanksgiving
COMING SOON!
GAME PICKS
2024 Best Bets ATS Record: 20-17-1 (54.1%, +1.05 units); W12: 1-1 (.-15)
2024 Overall ATS Record (from Staff Picks): 102-74-2 (58.0%); W12: 8-4
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, BetMGM) at New York Jets
I’m backing the Seahawks for the second straight week because Seattle’s defense has turned a corner in Mike Macdonald’s system since Seattle’s Week 10 bye. Seattle limited the 49ers in Week 11 to 4.9 yards per play and Brock Purdy averaged a season-low 5.7 YPA after averaging 8.8 YPA through the first 10 weeks. They then limited the Cardinals to 6 points and no touchdowns in a 10-point victory last week. On offense, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out in the last month, posting 6+ catches, 69+ yards, and 12.9+ FP in four straight games. Seattle will look to add to New York’s misery after they fired GM Joe Douglas during their bye week. The Jets are 1-7 outright and ATS over their last eight games, and I’m betting against this team having much fight left in them with the Aaron Rodgers era disintegrating. Placed Nov. 25. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Bet up to the Seahawks -1.5.
Atlanta Falcons (+1.5, ESPNBet) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Falcons stumbled into their bye week with back-to-back outright and ATS losses to the Broncos and Saints, but Kirk Cousins and this banged-up team got a much-need break in Week 12. A recharged Falcons team will catch a Chargers team in a brutal spot this week. Los Angeles will have to fly across the country for an early-kick game against an NFC opponent after battling in the Harbaugh Bowl on Monday Night Football. I’m giving this bet out on Monday morning, but I’m anticipating Los Angeles and Baltimore to play in a physical affair, which could leave the Chargers a little nicked up with a short week to prepare for a healthier Falcons team. Los Angeles’ matchup with the Falcons is also sandwiched between games against the Ravens and Chiefs, which carry a little more weight in the AFC playoff picture. Placed Nov. 25. Risk 1.05 units to win 1 unit. Bet down to pick-em.
Miami Dolphins (+3.5, BetMGM) at Green Bay Packers
The Dolphins have returned to form since Tua Tagovailoa came back from his concussion, averaging 29.0 PPG in five games with four straight covers heading into Thanksgiving Day. They’re in a tough spot on Thanksgiving Night with a road game at chilly Lambeau Field, but this too big of a spread against a Packers team that just snapped a three-game ATS losing streak as a favorite. The Packers blew out an undermanned 49ers team last week, but they averaged fewer yards per play (4.9<5.1) than San Francisco. Tagovailoa has a rough history in cold-weather games but we’re also getting an extra point because of his past performances in the cold. I have this game power rated closer to a 2.5-point spread so I’m taking the field goal plus the hook in what should be a close game to finish out Thanksgiving Day. Placed Nov. 25. Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit. Bet down to the Dolphins +3.
2024 NFL Power Rankings: Week 13
My Power Rankings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams, which will be updated every week once the regular season starts. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These rankings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Rankings into account when I make my weekly against-the-spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
Example: My top-rated team, the Detroit Lions (8.5), would be 14-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the New York Giants (-5.5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the Lions would be 15.5-point favorites over the Giants at home and 12.5-point favorites over the Giants on the road.
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | Ranking Adjustment | Super Bowl Odds | 2024 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | Detroit Lions | 8.5 | +.5 | +300 | 10-1 (9-2) |
| 2. | Buffalo Bills | 7 | — | +650 | 9-2 (7-4) |
| 3. | Baltimore Ravens | 6.5 | +750 | 7-4 (5-5-1) | |
| 4. | Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | +.5 | +650 | 9-2 (7-4) |
| 5. | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | -.5 | +500 | 10-1 (5-6) |
| 6. | Minnesota Vikings | 4.5 | — | +2100 | 9-2 (7-3-1) |
| 7. | Green Bay Packers | 4 | +.5 | +1700 | 8-3 (5-6) |
| 8. | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | -1 | +5000 | 5-6 (4-7) |
| 9. | Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | +1 | +7000 | 5-6 (5-6) |
| 10. | Houston Texans | 3.5 | -.5 | +3000 | 7-5 (5-6-1) |
| 11. | Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | — | +8500 | 4-7 (6-5) |
| 12. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | -.5 | +2800 | 8-3 (8-3) |
| 13. | Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | +2500 | 7-3 (7-3) | |
| 14. | Denver Broncos | 2.5 | +1 | +5500 | 7-5 (9-3) |
| 15. | Seattle Seahawks | 2 | +.5 | +5500 | 6-5 (4-6-1) |
| 16. | Washington Commanders | 2 | -1 | +5500 | 7-5 (7-4-1) |
| 17. | Arizona Cardinals | 1.5 | -.5 | +6000 | 6-5 (7-4) |
| 18. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.5 | +.5 | +5500 | 5-6 (7-4) |
| 19. | Atlanta Falcons | 1 | — | +5000 | 6-5 (5-6) |
| 20. | Los Angeles Rams | .5 | -.5 | +10000 | 5-6 (4-7) |
| 21. | Indianapolis Colts | -.5 | -.5 | +29000 | 5-7 (8-4) |
| 21. | New York Jets | -1 | -.5 | +55000 | 3-8 (3-8) |
| 22. | Chicago Bears | -1 | — | +100000 | 4-7 (5-4-2) |
| 23. | Cleveland Browns | -1.5 | +.5 | +100000 | 3-8 (4-7) |
| 24. | New Orleans Saints | -2.5 | — | +34000 | 4-7 (5-6) |
| 25. | Tennessee Titans | -3.5 | +1 | +100000 | 3-8 (2-9) |
| 26. | Dallas Cowboys | -4 | +1 | +100000 | 4-7 (3-7-1) |
| 27. | New England Patriots | -4.5 | -.5 | +100000 | 3-9 (4-7-1) |
| 29. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.5 | — | +100000 | 2-9 (6-5) |
| 30. | Carolina Panthers | -5 | +1.5 | +100000 | 3-8 (4-7) |
| 31. | Las Vegas Raiders | -5 | -1 | +100000 | 2-9 (4-7) |
| 32. | New York Giants | -5.5 | -2 | +100000 | 2-9 (2-8-1) |
