We’re nearing Halloween and the regular season's halfway point, so I wanted to give everyone an extra article to answer some of your questions.
Another huge shoutout to the Discord members who submitted questions this week. It’s a great opportunity for me to evaluate more than the trenches, and I enjoy it a lot. I’d like to do one or two more of these down the stretch, so please keep them coming.
With that, let’s get into it.
What’s your outlook on the Chargers’ skill players? — Lionheart0711
Since Justin Herbert came into the league, the Chargers have been one of the more frustrating teams to watch because they have a unicorn at QB, but haven’t been able to put things together around him. Herbert consistently gets brought up as a top-10 quarterback, which he is, but in classic Chargers fashion, the team screws things up when it matters most.
In 2024, he’s been limited by the philosophy of the offense, in which he has only two games with more than 240 passing yards. I’m not going to do a deep dive into Herbert for this question, just know that he’s one of the best QBs in the game and needs to be let loose. (And by pass rate, there are signs that this is happening.)
Back to the question. Let’s start with the running backs.
JK Dobbins: He’s the clear bell-cow of this group and has the most complete game of the three main ball carriers. He still has a lot of juice and twitch to shoot through the line of scrimmage even after the significant injuries he’s suffered, and I think his patience and vision stand out the most from the rest of the group. I’ll get to the other guys shortly, but Dobbins lets things develop in front of him and has the vision to find gaps in the line. The breakaway speed is not there anymore, unfortunately. He’s had runs of 43, 46, and 61 yards that didn’t end in touchdowns, so his home-run ability is gone. However, he’s still a big play runner who should be in your starting lineup.
Gus Edwards: Gus Bus is currently on IR with an ankle injury and the earliest he can return is Week 10. Having seen this guy for a few years when I was with Cleveland, I have always seen him as the hammer, downhill runner who complimented Dobbins and Lamar Jackson. Edwards is at his best when he has a designed path and can lower his shoulder so he’s struggled to make things happen in LA’s zone rushing attack. He really lacks the foot speed and shiftiness to adjust his path, and he doesn’t have the vision to find open space. I don’t think he was getting the most help from his OL, but Edwards isn’t a guy who can create much on his own. He’s a good guy for your bench and should steal some red zone carries, but he hasn’t gotten off to a good start in Los Angeles.
Kimani Vidal: I answered a question about Vidal in one of my earlier mailbag articles, and I’m glad to see that he’s gotten some run in the last few weeks with Edwards out. He only has 13 carries and three targets in his limited action, so there’s not much to evaluate. However, I like how aggressive he is with the ball. The kid shows no fear and has good speed to be dangerous if he gets some space. Vidal’s vision is also a bit limited for my liking but that can develop with more carries. As a receiver, he’s a good option for the standard running back route tree. I don’t see him as a passing game mismatch, but if he ever got extended reps he’s a solid option for a few catches a game. I’d expect him to be limited once Edwards comes back.
Moving on to tight ends. I kept this group to just the top two guys, even though the Chargers went deep into the TE room last week. The top two have a poor man’s Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely kind of relationship with how they’re used so set your lineups accordingly.
Hayden Hurst: I admit I’m biased in Hayden Hurst Helmsley’s favor. I scouted him at South Carolina the year he came out and thought he could become a top-5 TE. That hasn’t happened, but I still like what he brings to the table with his route running and toughness after the catch. He’s got above-average body control for a tight end and can dip, bend, and adjust well in the stem, so he runs more complex, downfield routes. Hurst has the greater big-play potential given his route tree but is getting out-targeted 3:1 and is out with a groin injury, so his production will continue to be limited in 2024.
Will Dissly: This is another tight end I liked in my time with Cleveland, but I saw him as a #2 or #3 since he’s a more limited athlete. The Chargers have been using Dissly in the perfect role for him as a checkdown, outlet receiver rather than a downfield route runner. His hands are solid, and he’s tough at the catch point, but he can’t separate to be a big play guy. Dissly is the Isaiah Likely of the group who will collect a lot of PPR points, but he’s a run-forward and get tackled guy after the catch.
The Chargers’ WRs are interesting. They have a couple of guys who fit their roles perfectly, but they need more from everyone.
I kept this list to the guys with 10+ targets.
Ladd McConkey: This guy is in the perfect role. McConkey is already the best route runner and separator the Chargers have. He’s a smooth mover who can run the full route tree and is explosive out of his breaks. I wish he were stronger against pressure in the stem, as he can get hung up easily, but he’s pretty tough in contested situations. The speed after the catch is real so he has big-play ability. There have been some rookie mistakes, but he understands the NFL game already. He reminds me of Cole Beasley, and the Chargers are using him in a similar way. He leads the team in targets, and I don’t see that changing.
Quentin Johnston: One of the better stories of 2024 is Johnston’s resurgence. The guy was left for dead with the “bust” label after year one, but he’s become a fairly reliable option for Herbert. He’s very much a straight-line guy who doesn’t break down or separate well, but the Chargers have been smartly using him as a fade, hitch, dig, post guy. There needs to be an improvement in his contested catch ability for him to take the next step, but he’s the clear #2 option for LA at the receiver spot.
Josh Palmer: Frustrating is the first word I think of with Palmer. I love his size and strength after the catch, but I can’t trust him to be a consistent option. First of all, he’s had injury problems. On top of that, He has a similar route-running ability as Johnston, so he won’t snap off defenders who are running complex routes. However, his hands and contested catch ability are so inconsistent. He has 15 catches on 20 targets, so I don’t think Herbert has that much faith in him.
Simi Fehoko: Rounding out the WR group is Fehoko, who is the clear #4 option regarding both targets and ability. He has 6 catches on 16 targets so far, which is the correct target share, given his limited twitch and separation. Fehoko is an average route runner with enough awareness to find the ball, but he lacks adjustability to consistently get his hands on bad throws or back shoulder balls. He’s a good piece for his role but shouldn’t be counted on in your lineup.
Sorry for the long response and breakdowns. When I get to grind tape and evaluate individual players I’ve found my happy place (the good one, not the one where Shooter McGavin hijacked it). Hopefully, this helps with decision-making when it comes to having Charger players in your starting lineup.
Why is the Jets OL still so bad after so many resources put into it? It seems like a mix of coaching and the players not being on the same page. — mattyd99
I’m not high on the Jets’ offensive line — I wasn’t coming into the season, and haven’t been at any point in the regular season. The Jets were surprisingly very smart about their OL investments this off-season, bringing in Morgan Moses ($5.5M), Tyron Smith ($2.9M), and John Simpson ($3.21M) on cheap contracts for 2024, and investing their first-round pick in Olu Fashanu. On paper, this group was poised to not only improve but keep the cap number down so the team could invest in other areas.
So far, Smith has been a trainwreck, Moses missed two and a half games after getting rolled up on (because Smith’s guy beat him), Simpson has been adequate, and Fashanu hasn’t looked great when he’s played. The Jets have been the 2nd-biggest mess of a football team in 2024 behind the Browns, and it’s only fitting that one of the heavy investment areas is a complete dumpster fire.
Coaching and play calling should take some of the blame, but these guys are flat-out bad up front, especially in the run game. Through seven weeks, the Jets are 29th in overall YPC (3.89), 26th in zone YPC (3.74) with a 43.4% Success rate (24th), and 24th in man YPC (4.17) with a 49.2% success rate (15th). Breece Hall and Braelon Allen are good ball carriers, but there have been too many miscommunications and overall inconsistent play for either of them to get going. Jet running backs have produced the 2nd-highest yards after contact % (67.8%), but they’re also dealing with the 28th Stuff% (49.1%) and the 30th average yards before contact per attempt (1.05).
In protection, the O-line has been propped up by play calling. They have the 2nd-lowest Pressure% (24.8%) through eight weeks, but Aaron Rodgers has the 3rd-fastest T2T (2.40), so the ball is designed to come out quickly. However, his average T2P (2.46) is the 9th-fastest, so he doesn’t throw quickly to the first read he’s feeling the heat right away.
Watching the film, this group simply can’t stand up if they have to block longer than the first read. It feels like I’m picking on him, but Tyron Smith is the weak link here. He’s lacked anchor, a strong punch, and the ability to bend to prevent rushers from dipping around the corner. I honestly can’t understand why they haven’t benched him for Fashanu now that Moses is back. The rest of the line has had typical OL struggles that a slow-moving, old QB can’t handle.
TLDR: The Jets were wise to invest in the OL as they did but the new guys have been surprisingly weak in both phases. New York is a mess so it’s not surprising this group is struggling. It’s a combination of coaching, play calling, and poor play that have made this unit so bad to start the season.
Is the Denver D truly what they are or benefitting from the schedule? Same with thd Bengals. — Mikey likes it!
I like this question because it asks the same thing about two teams who are nearly polar opposites of each other. Denver is a strong defense with an offense coming along, and Cincinnati is a surprisingly weaker defense with what should be a highly explosive offense. I’ll give the quick answers before getting into the breakdowns.
Denver’s D is truly who they are, and the Bengals have benefitted more from their schedule. That doesn’t mean Cincinnati can’t get back to where they’ve been, but for right now, they’re taking advantage of weak opponents, and Denver has proven to be a good defense.
Let’s look at Denver first. Yes, there has been some benefit for the Broncos based on their schedule, but there are enough stats and games played for me to know that this unit is good. Honestly, the back-to-back wins at Tampa and the Jets were enough for me. Denver held Baker Mayfield to 163 passing yards, sacked him seven times, and allowed just 91 yards on the ground. This is their best win by far in 2024. Baker is 2nd in the league in passing yards, and the Tampa O-line is one of the best in football at this point of the season.
I know the Jets are a dumpster fire, but it’s hard to win on the road in the NFL, and holding any team under 10 points is impressive. This unit is playing very well right now and it’s the entire group standing out.
Denver averages the 5th-lowest passing yards per game (197.3) and the 7th-lowest rushing yards per game (106.4). They’re 2nd in the league with 30 sacks and have allowed only twelve total touchdowns with seven interceptions. Their turnover numbers are low, but that hasn’t stopped them from being an incredibly tough defense, even without LB Alex Singleton, who’s on IR with a torn ACL from Week 3. Patrick Surtain II just came back from a concussion, and they’re getting him back at the right time with the toughest stretch of the schedule coming up.
The Broncos now go to Baltimore, to Kansas City, and come home for Atlanta. This stretch will truly shape the season for Denver. Going 1-2 or better against dangerous offenses will keep them in the hunt the rest of the way, whereas 0-3 would most likely slam the door on any postseason hopes. They’ve already proven to be an annoyingly hard team to play against with this defense and Bo Nix somewhat figuring things out, so even if they are out of the hunt, they’ll be a tough matchup each week.
The Bengals, on the other hand, are either middle-of-the-road or below-average in a lot of defensive categories. They’re 16th in passing yards per game (226.5), 9th in rush yards per game (139.3), they’ve produced the 4th-fewest sacks (12), have allowed the 3rd-most rushing TDs (11), and T-6th-most passing TDs (12). The schedule question works both ways, though, and the Bengals faced Kansas City, Washington, and Baltimore three out of four weeks. Those are all tough offenses to play against, although the Chiefs haven’t been that explosive so far, so it’s not unexpected that Cincinnati’s numbers haven’t looked great. However, the points allowed each week proves that the good results are a product of who they’re playing.
They allowed 16 against New England, 26 against Kansas City, 38 against Washington, 24 against Carolina, 41 against Baltimore, 7 against the Giants, 14 against Cleveland, and 37 against Philadelphia. You don’t have to dig too deep to see that this unit isn’t up to the same quality that it’s been under DC Lou Anarumo. They have dealt with some injuries, but it’s no worse than what Denver has gone through to this point.
Dax Hill went down for the year in Week 5 with a torn ACL, and BJ Hill missed a couple of games with a hamstring. Trey Hendrickson nearly ended up in serious trouble with a neck injury in Week 4, but luckily was able to return the following week. Hendrickson is the only thing keeping this unit afloat with his 7 sacks, so if he went down, it would be curtains for the Bengals on defense.
Injuries have played a small part in their performance, but something is off with this unit. Cincy faces the Raiders this week in a game that shouldn’t be as important as it is with this team’s expectations coming into the season. The Bengals have essentially no margin for error the rest of the way, but I’m struggling to see this defense showing up every week to get the job done.
With team scoring and level of play down in the early parts of the season, and injuries occurring frequently, will preseason play go back up, or will it just be scrapped? — BigDKY
This is a good question that’s been asked during the first month of the regular season the last few years as teams continue to rest their starters during the preseason schedule. I understand fan frustration when their team is clearly out of sync early in the year (Cincinnati), and it’s a struggle just to score points, let alone win games. I think every fan base would welcome more preseason games, not because they want to see guys compete for backend roster spots but because they want their team to be clicking when Week 1 kicks off. Unfortunately, that’s not what drives scheduling decisions in the NFL. I don’t see more preseason games ever being added on, but I don’t see games getting scrapped completely.
The NFL has consistently proposed more regular-season games during recent collective bargaining agreement negotiations, and a few years ago, they successfully added a 17th game by scrapping one from the preseason. The speculation now is that it’s inevitable an 18th game will be added, and the preseason schedule will be reduced to just two games. There have always been 20 guaranteed games between the preseason and regular season going back to the 14-game schedule, which had six preseason games (why so many?), so I don’t believe the owners will ever willingly give up a chance to sell more tickets by completely scrapping preseason games
As a former scout, though, I completely understand that you should rest your starters during meaningless games in the summer. There’s nothing more draining than losing a star on a Friday night in August in front of 20,000 fans, so I don’t blame coaches and GMs for keeping their big-name guys out of harm's way. And in fact, yet another regular-season game will probably give teams even more incentive to rest players in the preseason — you have more legroom to get back on track with an extra regular-season game, even if your team starts sloppy.
The trend that I believe will continue is more teams holding joint practices during training camp.
Growing up, I rarely remember teams practicing against each other in August, but teams like Philadelphia and Miami have begun doing multiple weeks of joint practices that ultimately replace the preseason game that week for the starters. In Cleveland, we had the Giants and Eagles come in for practices, and the intensity of those sessions was legit. From an evaluator’s perspective, these sessions were more valuable than the games, and I know the coaches felt the same way.
I ultimately don’t see preseason games ever getting scrapped as owners will always want to make more money. However, I don’t think anything can be done about teams resting their starters in August, no matter how sloppy they look once the regular season begins.
