My first article for Fantasy Points was my Preseason Offensive Line Rankings, which was a lot of fun to write(even though it was over 6,000 words.)
But a lot has changed, so I wanted to give an update to O-line tiers based on the first third of the season.
The Process
I decided on seven tiers to determine the truly elite units (there’s only one), all the way down to the disasters. I’ve based the tiers on a few different stats from both the run game and pass protection and also factored in my own vibes on that team/unit.
This group of tiers includes six weeks of games, but going forward, I’d like to do this once every four weeks to see how teams rise and fall. Further down, I’ve shouted out my biggest surprises and disappointments thus far and my reasoning behind the shoutouts.
Biggest Surprises
TAMPA BAY: GREAT
One of the biggest OL surprises for me so far is the Bucs. I had them ranked at #18 coming into the season, and they’ve easily outperformed that spot through six weeks. This offense leads the league in points scored with 178, and Baker Mayfield continues to look solid behind an O-line allowing the 2nd-lowest pressure rate at just 24.0%. They’ve also been exceptional run blockers, with the 10th-highest YBC/ATT (2.26) and 4th-highest overall YPC (5.30). Rookie RB Bucky Irving is on his way to becoming a star, thanks to this O-line.
Tampa’s impressive performance proves how valuable continuity is for an O-line. They lost RT Luke Goedeke for four games, but Justin Skule filled in admirably. This is Skule’s third season in Tampa. He’s comfortable with the rest of the unit, and the system helped this group not miss a beat without Goedeke.
SEATTLE: GOOD
Slotting Seattle firmly in the “Good” tier will probably get some blowback, but the Seahawks’ O-line is off to a much better start than expected after being ranked 28th in the preseason and dealing with multiple moving parts. Projected starting LT Abraham Lucas is still on the PUP list, and vet Connor Williams took the starting C job from 2nd-year Olu Oluwatimi.
On the field, they’re currently allowing the 4th-lowest pressure rate at 26.5%, which has allowed Geno Smith to lead the league in passing yards at 1,778. I’d like to see better performance in the run game, though, as they’re 27th in YBC/ATT (1.38) and 13th in overall YPC (4.63). Kenneth Walker has managed to be productive, but the run blocking will need to improve for this team to be a contender.
The vibes have been trending down for the Seahawks and this group could very well be in a lower tier next time I do this article, but they’ve earned the “Good” tier with how they’ve performed the first six weeks.
JACKSONVILLE: GOOD
Talk about a case of bad team vibes overshadowing an impressive start to the season. Jacksonville’s O-line has quietly come out of the gates playing really good football that is getting forgotten about because this team can’t get out of its own way. They’re currently 7th in Pressure% (27.6%) and 2nd in overall YPC (5.34), with RB Tank Bigsby 5th in the league in YPC at 7.24. What’s holding this group back from the “Great” tier is that they’re making the running backs do a lot of the work with just the 21st-best YBC/ATT (1.66).
I thought Mitch Morse would be the stabilizing factor in the middle for Trevor Lawrence, and to a certain extent, that’s proven true with how well the group has performed. However, Lawrence hasn’t taken advantage of what his O-line is giving him, and the team has floundered.
Another bad loss this week could open the door for bigger changes in Jacksonville, but the O-line isn’t the issue.
ARIZONA: GOOD
The Cardinals are another example of an O-line outperforming my preseason rankings (30th) despite losing multiple starters to injured reserve. RT Jonah Williams has been on IR since injuring his right knee in Week 1, and RG Will Hernandez was shipped to the reserve list with a knee injury after Week 5. Luckily, Arizona has a couple of vets in Kelvin Beachum and Trystan Colon as replacements to keep things rolling up front.
Arizona, shockingly, ranks highly in a lot of key O-line statistics. They’re 8th in Pressure% (27.9%), 3rd in overall YPC (5.31), and 3rd in YBC/ATT (2.63), which is the most impressive in my opinion. It’s the opposite of Jacksonville since they’re clearing the way early, but the main running backs, James Conner and Trey Benson, haven’t taken full advantage with Conner’s YPC under 4.50 and Benson’s under 3.60.
I wasn’t expecting anything from this group coming into the season, but if they keep playing like this, they’ll easily move up a tier.
CAROLINA: GOOD
Carolina being in the “Good” tier might be the most surprising thing to come out of the season’s first six weeks. I didn’t crush them in my preseason list (#22), but how things have been going in Carolina hasn’t screamed out that they’d have an O-line in the top ten of some key stats. The Panthers are 10th in pressure rate (29.0%), 6th in YBC/ATT (2.49), and 9th in overall YPC (4.74). Chuba Hubbard has been the bright spot with a 5.64 YPC (16th overall, 4th for RBs with 30+ carries).
It’s shocking how well this unit has performed despite blocking for Bryce Young and all the noise that went along with his benching. They’ve also gone through some recent turnover, with starting C Austin Corbett going down for the year with a torn biceps in Week 5. Brady Christensen is filling in, so the group will have to adjust on the fly with a new man in the middle.
BALTIMORE: GREAT
Baltimore is getting a shoutout here purely for how they recovered after Week 1. I caught some heat for ranking this group #5 in the preseason and even more after Chris Jones abused every lineman in the season opener, but I’ve been impressed with how this group has responded. They are first in the league in YBC/ATT (3.57) and YPC (5.89), with Derrick Henry 2nd in YPC at 5.92. This run game is lethal right now, and they’ve been steadily improving in protection, currently sitting at #23 in pressure rate at 34.8%.
Patrick Mekari has continued to be the all-world utility man starting at RT and sliding to LG when Andrew Vorhees went down. Rookie Roger Rosengarten has continued to improve and is in a good spot as the next man up. Baltimore’s offense is very tough to stop right now and the O-line is having a lot of fun hammering defenses into the ground.
Biggest Disappointments
CLEVELAND: YIKES
Without a doubt, the Browns are the worst team/vibes in the NFL right now. There’s been plenty written about Deshaun Watson on and off the field this season and how he’s to blame for everything, but I want to focus on the OL which was the rock of this offense for the last five seasons.
The team is a complete mess, as is the O-line in terms of performance and health. Cleveland currently has five O-linemen on IR, including Wyatt Teller. Starting C Ethan Pocic is dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss Week 6, and his backup, Nick Harris, just went on IR with a broken leg. They just got Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin back in the lineup, but it’s probably too late for those guys to make a noticeable impact as long as Watson starts.
On the field, it’s been ugly for the O-line. They are 19th in YBC/ATT (1.86), 20th in YPC (4.29), and 32nd in pressure rate (47.4%). They also have allowed the most sacks through six games with 31. Now, a huge chunk of the blame falls on Watson for being the worst QB of this century. Defenses have no reason to fear him and can exploit a weakened offensive line, but I’m shocked with how bad this group has been given the quality vets in the room.
Cleveland is a team that’s never handled the preseason hype that well, but 2024 is an all-time meltdown.
BUFFALO: MEDIOCRE
The Bills fall in the “Mediocre” tier more so because of their pass protection performance than anything else. Josh Allen has been sacked only eight times through six games, but that’s because he’s a freak in the pocket who’s extremely hard to bring down.
The Bills are 29th in pressure rate (41.2%) and 30th in pressure rate over expectation (4.75%). Allen has the 9th highest T2T (2.69), but multiple things are baked into that, like his receivers struggling to get open so the ball can’t come out quickly and how well he extends plays.
I don’t think the O-line is a bottom-four unit in protection, but they have to improve here, given how many big hits Allen has been taking.
The bright spot for this group is in the run game. They’re 19th in YPC (4.30) and 12th in YBC/ATT (2.21). It’s clear this unit likes pushing other teams around, with Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown letting the Jets hear about it last Monday night, they just need that energy to translate into protection. The Bills haven’t dealt with any major O-line injuries so far this season, so the disappointment rests firmly on the starters not fully clicking yet. Even so, the Bills are atop the AFC East with a 1.5-game cushion to work with.
HOUSTON: MEDIOCRE
Of the teams in this section, Houston is the smallest disappointment being ranked #13 in my preseason rankings. I thought they’d be solid, but certainly weren’t world-beaters up front. A few weeks ago, however, I wrote about how susceptible this unit was when defenses ran stunts and that Kenyon Green and Tytus Howard struggled to process twists. They seemed to have leveled out here, as Stroud has only been sacked five times in the three games since. With all that said, Houston is still 24th in Pressure% (34.9%) and 21st against the blitz (40.4%). Stroud’s escapability the last few weeks has impressed me and he’ll need to keep using it the way this group is playing.
Houston has performed better on the ground, which keeps them on the “Mediocre/Average” line. They’re 14th in YBC/ATT (1.98) and 16th in YPC (4.51), and Joe Mixon’s return will continue to improve these numbers. Like the Bills, I don’t believe Houston truly is a below-average group, but they have to continue getting better in protection to climb the list and keep their start QB healthy.
PHILADELPHIA: AVERAGE
To go along with Spooky Season, the Philadelphia O-line is such a Jekyll and Hyde situation when it comes to their run blocking and pass protection. In my Week 5 article, I broke down how the group pulled a 180 after Week 1’s performance in Brazil. Since the opener, they’ve been dominant in the run game with the 2nd-highest YBC/ATT in that stretch (3.13), and overall, they’re 11th through six weeks at (2.21). They’re also 10th in YPC (4.69) through six weeks, with Saquon Barkley being 10th in YPC (5.30) for RBs with over 30 carries.
On the flip side, this unit has been borderline terrible in protection. They’re currently 25th in pressure rate (37.9%) and, shockingly, have the 2nd-worst pressure rate when defenses don’t blitz (41.3%). I honestly can’t remember a team that’s had such a split from the run game to pass protection, and yet are still firmly in the mix.
Injury-wise, the Eagles have dealt with RT Lane Johnson missing a game and a half with a concussion, but a bigger issue could be LT Jordan Mailata suffering a hamstring injury. He was on crutches after the Week 6 game, and will probably be out for the next month or so.
Jordan Mailata walking with crutches. Sleeve on his left leg.#Eagles pic.twitter.com/yvGwyAVukX
— Brandon Lee Gowton (@BrandonGowton) October 13, 2024
Like Cleveland, the O-line was the backbone of Philadelphia’s offense the last few seasons, so they’ll need to flip the switch in protection if they want to stay in the playoff race.
