Week 3 proved that having the right D/ST can be the difference between winning and losing. The Buffalo Bills D/ST helped people win millions of dollars in DFS, let alone your local home leagues. Last week, we nailed our top priority defenses as New England, Cleveland, Miami, and Kansas City all finished as top 10 units.
Higher-owned Options
Miami Dolphins (MIA, 54%) @ BUF
What can the Dolphins do for an encore after dropping 70 points on the hapless Broncos? How about traveling to Western New York for a date with the rival Buffalo Bills to get the juices flowing? While many shy away from D/STs against the Bills, it’s actually not a terrible matchup. Josh Allen has turned the ball over 5 times through three games (all in Week 1, to be fair), and has been sacked 7 times. If Miami can get out in front and make the Bills become one-dimensional, Allen might get generous with the football.
Top Targets
Seattle Seahawks (SEA, 44%) @ NYG
The Seahawks are popping up on the WW report again because their schedule is so juicy. They fly across the country this week for a Monday Night date with the New York Giants. Daniel Jones, unfortunately, will be on display again for a national audience without Saquon Barkley by his side. Jones engineered just 150 yards of offense in Week 2. He’s been intercepted in every game this year and sacked 12 times. Don’t overthink this one.
Cincinnati Bengals (CIN, 38%) @ TEN
Everything about the Titans' offense looks broken. When Derrick Henry can only rush for 20 yards, you’ve got problems. The offensive line is in shambles. They allowed Cleveland to sack Ryan Tannehill five times. Tennessee can’t keep drives going, as evident from their 2-12 third down conversion ratio in Week 3. Cincy pass rushers should have a field day playing in the Titans backfield.
Going Deeper
Tampa Bay (TB, 35%) @ NO
Two words: Jameis Winston. With Saints starter Derek Carr looking unlikely to play, the ball will be in the hands of the former Heisman Trophy winner and crab leg aficionado. Winston famously threw 30 interceptions in 2019 as the Bucs quarterback. In limited action last year, he reverted back to his old ways. In three starts, he tossed five balls to the other team. I fully expect the Bucs to pressure Winston into several miscues on Sunday afternoon. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Bucs defense ranks 12th in the league in percentage of dropbacks under pressure at 36.6%.
Denver Broncos (Den, 12%) @ CHI
You’ve got to think we’re nuts for putting a defense that allowed 70 points to be a streaming option. Well, maybe we are. But this is simply a matchup play if there are no other options — note that DraftKings has Denver as the sixth most expensive D/ST on the slate. They know the match-up vs. Justin Fields is a slam dunk, too. Fields is a sack waiting to happen — he’s been dumped 13 times this season. Plus, these are professional athletes. They have pride, and they won’t want to let what happened Sunday repeat itself. Sneaky bounce-back spot for Sean Payton’s crew. Bonus: the Broncos get the Jets at Mile High in Week 5.
Los Angeles Chargers (LAC, 6%) vs. LVR
This defense has been a major underachiever thus far compared to all of the talent they employ. They’ve given up 24+ points in every contest this year but have nine sacks and four takeaways. This is simply a play against the Las Vegas Raiders, potentially without QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Brian Hoyer would be in line to start if Jimmy G can’t get out of the concussion protocol in time.
Atlanta Falcons (ATL, 4%) vs. JAX (London)
OK, we’re digging deep. Here’s the bottom line with Atlanta: their next three opponents are Jacksonville, Houston, and Washington, so you could potentially get three weeks of work from the Falcons. The Jags offensive isn’t setting the world on fire. Trevor Lawrence has been under a 68% completion percentage for the past two weeks. He also hasn’t tossed more than one touchdown since opening day.
