2023 NFL Rushing Yardage Props

The 2023 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2023 NFL Rushing Yard Props for the league’s top running backs. In this article, I highlighted four bets I’ve already made and a couple of additional wagers I considered.

Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL rushing yard props.

I previously broke down 2023 NFL Passing Yardage Props in late May, the NFL MVP race in mid-February, the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year awards in early May, and NFL Rookie Props in mid-May. Subscribers can see all 36 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.

2023 NFL Rushing Yard Props

Players are sorted by their Highest Yardage Total. You should target the Lowest Yardage Totals for over wagers and the Highest Yardage Totals for under wagers.

Brolley’s Bets

Tony Pollard (Dal) under 1100.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — I’d give Pollard a decent chance to top 1100 rushing yards if I knew that he’d be fully healthy and the Cowboys wouldn’t add any backfield competition. I’m far from confident on both counts as we head into the NFL’s summer break before training camp. Pollard fractured his fibula in late January, but he said his rehab is ahead of schedule and that he plans to be ready for training camp. We’ll see if he can stay extremely efficient off of his severe injury and in more of a volume role that he hasn’t previously played. I believe it’s yet to be seen how much volume he’ll receive with Jerry Jones still potentially in the market for another back. Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are among the RBs still available, and they could even bring back Ezekiel Elliott after releasing him earlier this off-season. Pollard is likely headed toward an impactful fifth season, but his rushing yards prop is set too much on the optimistic side.

Joe Mixon (Cin) under 825.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — The Bengals pondered releasing Mixon, especially when some legal issues popped up earlier this off-season. They now appear ready to head into training camp with the seventh-year runner leading a backfield with little experience behind him. That could be a big mistake for a team with Super Bowl aspirations since Mixon was one of the NFL’s worst backs last season. Among 33 RBs with 150+ carries, Mixon finished dead last with just 18 missed tackles forced on 210 carries (.09 per attempt) and 29th in yards after contact per attempt at 2.6 per Fantasy Points Data. He also finished 28th in explosive run rate (percentage of runs to go for 15+ yards) at only 2.9%. HC Zac Taylor showed more trust in Samaje Perine last postseason, and it could be just a matter of time before Chase Brown and/or Trayveon Williams steal significant carries in this backfield. Mixon also missed 10 games for a foot injury in 2020 and two games last season for a concussion, which means he’s missed 2+ games in four of his six seasons.

J.K. Dobbins (Bal) over 800.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — I’m taking a small leap of faith that Dobbins is finally healthy off of his 2021 knee injury since he’s totaled just 226 carries in 23 games in his first three seasons. I’m doing it because the Ravens put their trust into the fourth-year RB by not touching their backfield this off-season and instead using their available resources to primarily upgrade at receiver. Dobbins looked headed toward stardom after averaging 6.0 YPA with nine rushing TDs on just 134 attempts as a rookie. He got back to that form in his final four games in 2023, posting 57/397/1 rushing for 7.0 YPA. Among 48 RBs with 90+ carries in 2023, Dobbins led the NFL in explosive run rate (percentage of runs to go for 15+ yards) at 9.8% and third in yards after contact per attempt (3.5) per Fantasy Points Data. Dobbins is poised to truly break out this season with another year removed from his knee injury.

Justin Fields (Chi) over 750.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — Fields joined Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson as just the third quarterback to run for 1000+ yards in a season. OC Luke Getsy is working with Fields to improve his decision-making and “football IQ,” but he promised they wouldn’t make him a “robotic” player. Fields easily led the league with 66/642/2 rushing on scrambles last year, per our Fantasy Points Data, on his way to 160/1143/8 rushing in 15 contests. His overall rushing production has nowhere to go but down after trading for stud D.J. Moore, but his 76.2 rushing YPG would have to crater for him not to sniff the over on this prop. He needs 44.2 rushing YPG over 17 games to get the job done, and an improved O-line with Nate Davis and Darnell Wright should help him get the job done.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) over 580.5 rushing yards (-115, Caesars). Placed May 11 — D’Andre Swift fell out of favor with the Lions last season and managed just 99 carries, but he averaged 5.5 YPC for 542 rushing yards behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Gibbs will take over Swift’s snaps against lighter boxes behind Detroit’s elite offensive line when the Lions spread opposing defenses out. I believe a 4.5 YPC average is attainable for Gibbs as a rookie, which means he’d need 130 carries to get over his player prop of 580.5 rushing yards. He’d have to average 7.6 attempts per game in a backfield that averaged 25.1 RB attempts per game last season. I’m betting Gibbs to go over his rushing yardage total because of his elite draft capital for a running back and his ideal landing spot behind a top-flight offensive line in one of the NFL’s best offenses.

Brolley’s Leans

Kenneth Walker (Sea) under 975.5 (-115, Caesars) — Walker was an all-or-nothing runner as a rookie, finishing fourth in explosive run rate (7.5%) and dead last in stuff rate (55.3%) among 33 RBs with 150+ carries (per Fantasy Points Data). The Seahawks drafted a running back in the second round for the second straight year, selecting Zach Charbonnet 52nd overall, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he becomes the team’s primary runner at some point if he’s the better early-down grinder than KWIII. Walker is far from a lock to get back to his 15.2 carries per game from his rookie season.

Aaron Jones (GB) over 800.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — Jones has reached 1080+ rushing yards and 200+ carries in three of his last four seasons, and he owns a career 5.1 YPA average on 1035 carries since breaking into the league in 2017. He also led 42 RBs with 100+ carries in the percentage of carries that went for 5+ yards at 46.9% (per Fantasy Points Data). I can’t quite get to the window since Jones still has to contend with A.J. Dillon for carries, and this offense could lose some juice with the Packers moving onto Jordan Love.

Rashaad Penny (Phi) over 600.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings) — Betting Penny over his rushing yards total would be the biggest no-brainer on the board if we could turn off injuries like we were playing Madden NFL. Unfortunately, the NFL overlords will allow injuries again in 2023. Penny is coming off a fractured fibula, which means he’s appeared in just 42 career games out of a possible 82 (51.2%) in five seasons. Few players possess Penny’s upside as a pure runner, which makes him a dangerous threat playing next to Jalen Hurts behind one of the league’s best O-lines. Only James Cook (12.4%) had a higher explosive run rate than Penny (10.5%) among 67 RBs with 50+ carries last season (per Fantasy Points Data).