The 2023 NFL season is slowly starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. Most of the national sportsbooks have posted 2023 NFL Receiving Yardage Props for the majority of starting quarterbacks. In this article, I highlighted six bets I’ve already made and a couple of additional wagers I considered.
Wagering your hard-earned money in the summer and waiting more than half a year for bets to be settled isn’t the easiest pill to swallow. Nevertheless, if we can get the best of the lines before the markets fully mature in the future, it will make the wait until the end of the season worth it in the long run. Make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if you have access to multiple sportsbooks. You’re likely to see more volatility between books on NFL Futures in the off-season than you’ll see on game lines and player props during the season. Let’s see if we can find some value in these NFL Receiving Yardage Props.
I previously broke down the 2023 NFL Rushing Yardage Props in June, 2023 NFL Passing Yardage Props in late May, NFL MVP race in mid-February, the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year awards in early May, and NFL Rookie Props in mid-May. Subscribers can see all 40 of the NFL Futures I’ve already bet for the upcoming season.
2023 NFL Receiving Yardage Props
Players are sorted by their Highest Yardage Total. You should target the Lowest Yardage Totals for over wagers and the Highest Yardage Totals for under wagers.
| PLAYER | Fantasy Points Projection | HIGHEST YARDAGE TOTAL | LOWEST YARDAGE TOTAL |
| Justin Jefferson (Min) | 1585 | 1375.5 (Caesars) | 1350.5 (DraftKings) |
| Davante Adams (GB) | 1185 | 1325.5 (Caesars) | 1300.5 (DraftKings) |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 1365 | 1325.5 (Caesars) | 1250.5 (DraftKings) |
| Ja’Marr Chase (Cin) | 1425 | 1300.5 (Caesars) | 1275.5 (DraftKings) |
| Tyreek Hill (Mia) | 1425 | 1300.5 (DraftKings) | 1250.5 (Caesars) |
| Stefon Diggs (Buf) | 1250 | 1200.5 (Caesars) | 1125.5 (DraftKings) |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 1160 | 1150.5 (DraftKings) | 1125.5 (Caesars) |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 1185 | 1150.5 (DraftKings) | 1100.5 (Caesars) |
| CeeDee Lamb (Dal) | 1260 | 1150.5 (Caesars) | 1100.5 (DraftKings) |
| A.J. Brown (Phi) | 1215 | 1100.5 (Caesars) | 1050.5 (DraftKings) |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 1115 | 1050.5 (DraftKings) | 1000.5 (DraftKings) |
| DeVonta Smith (Phi) | 1105 | 1000.5 (Caesars) | 975.5 (DraftKings) |
| Tee Higgins (Cin) | 1100 | 1000.5 (Caesars) | 950.5 (DraftKings) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (Det) | 1180 | 1000.5 (Caesars) | 950.5 (DraftKings) |
| D.K. Metcalf (Sea) | 1025 | 950.5 (Multiple books) | 950.5 (Multiple books) |
| Amari Cooper (Cle) | 985 | 950.5 (DraftKings) | 875.5 (Caesars) |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 845 | 950.5 (Caesars) | 875.5 (DraftKings) |
| Terry McLaurin (Was) | 925 | 950.5 (Caesars | 875.5 (DraftKings) |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 870 | 925.5 (Caesars) | 775.5 (DraftKings) |
| Calvin Ridley (Jax) | 1000 | 900.5 (DraftKings) | 850.5 (Caesars) |
| Marquise Brown (Ari) | 895 | 900.5 (Caesars) | 800.5 (DraftKings) |
| Jerry Jeudy (Den) | 1025 | 900.5 (Caesars) | 875.5 (DraftKings) |
| Tyler Lockett (Sea) | 840 | 875.5 (DraftKings) | 825.5 (Caesars) |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 880 | 875.5 (Multiple books) | 875.5 (Multiple books) |
| Diontae Johnson (Pit) | 845 | 875.5 (Caesars) | 825.5 (DraftKings) |
| Mark Andrews (Bal) | 975 | 875.5 (DraftKings) | 800.5 (Caesars) |
| Mike Williams (LAC) | 890 | 875.5 (Caesars) | 800.5 (DraftKings) |
| D.J. Moore (Chi) | 970 | 875.5 (Caesars) | 750.5 (DraftKings) |
| Drake London (Atl) | 995 | 850.5 (Caesars) | 825.5 (DraftKings) |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 925 | 850.5 (Caesars) | 750.5 (DraftKings) |
| Michael Pittman (Ind) | 880 | 825.5 (DraftKings) | 800.5 (Caesars) |
| Christian Kirk (Jax) | 920 | 825.5 (DraftKings) | 775.5 (Caesars) |
| Deebo Samuel (SF) | 1030 | 825.5 (Caesars) | 725.5 (DraftKings) |
| Gabe Davis (Buf) | 855 | 775.5 (DraftKings) | 735.5 (Caesars) |
| George Pickens (Pit) | 905 | 775.5 (Caesars) | 750.5 (DraftKings) |
| Treylon Burks (Ten) | 905 | 775.5 (Caesars) | 725.5 (DraftKings) |
| Kyle Pitts (Atl) | 955 | 775.5 (Caesars) | 700.5 (DraftKings) |
| Darren Waller (NYG) | 725 | 750.5 (Caesars) | 700.5 (DraftKings) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea) | 720 | 725.5 (DraftKings) | 725.5 (DraftKings) |
| George Kittle (SF) | 725 | 725.5 (DraftKings) | 700.5 (Caesars) |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | 745 | 725.5 (Caesars) | 700.5 (DraftKings) |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) | 665 | 700.5 (DraftKings) | 700.5 (DraftKings) |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 670 | 675.5 (DraftKings) | 600.5 (Caesars) |
| Evan Engram (Jax) | 660 | 640.5 (DraftKings) | 624.5 (BetMGM) |
| Adam Thielen (Min) | 610 | 600.5 (DraftKings) | 549.5 (BetMGM) |
| Robert Woods (Hou) | 450 | 580.5 (DraftKings) | 574.5 (BetMGM) |
| Odell Beckham (Bal) | 640 | 575.5 (DraftKings) | 559.5 (BetMGM) |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 705 | 574.5 (BetMGM) | 520.5 (DraftKings) |
| David Njoku (Cle) | 700 | 550.5 (DraftKings) | 550.5 (DraftKings) |
| Tim Patrick (Den) | 345 | 525.5 (DraftKings) | 500.5 (BetMGM) |
| Tyler Higbee (LAR) | 560 | 500.5 (Multiple books) | 500.5 (Multiple books) |
| Dawson Knox (Buf) | 425 | 425.5 (DraftKings) | 400.5 (BetMGM) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Allen Lazard (NYJ) under 675.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Lazard was the first player from Aaron Rodgers’ four-player wish list to sign with the Jets. He earned a 19.6% target share and a 23.0% team receiving yards share (per Fantasy Points Data) in his last season with the Packers, but he’s set to face much stiffer competition for targets than he did from Green Bay’s young receiving corps last season. Lazard posted a career-best 788 receiving yards as Green Bay’s #1 WR, but he’s back behind a stud in Garrett Wilson like he was when he started his career behind Davante Adams. He managed just 1441 yards on 158 targets in 2019-21, and he’ll battle Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman, and a deeper overall receiving corps for targets in New York. Lazard has also missed 2+ games in three straight seasons.
Tyler Lockett (Sea) under 875.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Lockett joined Steve Largent as the only Seattle receivers to reach 1000+ yards in four straight seasons. I’m betting he won’t come close to making it five consecutive seasons with 1000+ yards. Lockett is still going strong heading into his second season in his 30s, but the Seahawks started to prepare for life without him by making Jaxon Smith-Njigba the first WR off the board in April. Targets will be a little harder to come by playing next to D.K. Metcalf and JSN, and Pete Carroll, at heart, would love to get back to running the rock more after playing in so many shootouts last season. Underdog drafters are expecting Lockett to take a step back as the third Seattle WR off the board behind Metcalf and JSN.
JuJu Smith Schuster (NE) under 699.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) — JuJu is sitting out OTAs while he continues to nurse a knee injury he suffered last season and played on through the postseason. Smith-Schuster has posted 800+ yards in each of the four seasons when he’s played 14+ games, but he has durability concerns with multiple concussion, knee, and shoulder issues through his first six seasons. JuJu benefitted from playing in pass-heavy attacks with Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes to start his career, which won’t be the case in New England. JuJu’s teams have finished inside the top six in passing attempts in each of the five seasons when Big Ben and Mahomes took a majority of the snaps for their teams. Mike Gesicki is in the mix for slot work, and the Patriots are actively courting DeAndre Hopkins, which could be related to their concerns about Smith-Schuster’s lingering knee issues.
Robert Woods (Hou) under 580.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Woods is coming off an awful first season off of ACL surgery. Among 59 WRs with 80+ targets, he finished 54th in yards per route run (1.26) and dead last in missed tackles forced per reception (.02) per our Fantasy Points Data. Houston overpaid for his services by giving him $10 million guaranteed, but he’ll face more competition for targets and snaps than he did in Tennessee in 2022. Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins figure to battle for the most targets from rookie C.J. Stroud, and he’ll compete against more talented options John Metchie and Tank Dell for opportunities. He’s best suited to be a complementary receiver at 31 years old.
Deebo Samuel (SF) over 725.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Deebo called his 2022 performance “awful” and “sluggish” and vowed to “never put nothing on tape like that again.” He blamed his contract negotiation from last off-season as the biggest reason for his down performance in 2022. Samuel managed just 56/632/2 receiving on 94 targets in 13 games after erupting for 77/1405/6 during his breakout 2021 campaign. His YPR plummeted from a league-best 18.2 in 2021 to 11.3 in 2022, and he owned a pitiful 61.5% catch rate despite besting only Greg Dortch in aDOT at 5.1 yards — Dortch posted an 81.3% catch rate by comparison. I’m taking Deebo at his word when he says he wants revenge for his poor performance last season, and his rushing workload should be scaled with a full season of Christian McCaffrey in the mix.
Chris Godwin (TB) over 775.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Godwin has cleared 840+ receiving yards in five straight seasons, and he’s been good for 72.4 receiving YPG in that stretch. He’ll face his toughest test to remain among the NFL’s best slot WRs with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask taking over for Tom Brady at quarterback. Godwin said he didn’t feel at 100 percent in his first season back from his ACL injury in 2022 but that “a lot of my explosion is coming back” this off-season. It’s worth noting that Jarvis Landry had three straight seasons with 72+ catches and 840+ receiving yards with Baker from 2018-20 until both of their careers went off a cliff in 2021.
CeeDee Lamb (Dal) over 1050.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings) — Lamb’s receiving yards were woefully underpriced compared to the other WRs being drafted around him in fantasy drafts. He ripped off 68+ receiving yards in 11 of his final 14 games and 100+ yards in six of his last 11 contests last season (postseason included). Lamb is still ascending heading into his age-24 season, with his receiving yards (935<1102<1359) and receptions (74<79<107) growing each year. I’m slightly worried about the downgrade from Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy at play caller, but he should remain among the league leaders in receiving yards share once again after finishing sixth (34.3%) in his first season without Amari Cooper.
Brolley’s Leans
Mike Evans (TB) under 950.5 receiving yards (-115, Caesars) — Evans holds the NFL record for the most 1000+ receiving yards seasons to open his career with nine, but all good things must come to an end. I laid out earlier how Chris Godwin has the potential to be Baker Mayfield’s favorite target out of the slot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Evans finally takes a step back in his first season in the 30s. He’s consistently played through nagging injuries the last few years, but he may not have the same sense of urgency on a team that could be one of the league’s worst.
Mark Andrews (Bal) under 875.5 receiving yards (-120, DraftKings) — Andrews is no longer than no-doubt best option for Lamar Jackson in this passing game. Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, and a healthy (big if, of course) Rashod Bateman will vie for targets, and Isaiah Likely could take on a bigger role in his second season. Andrews has topped 875.5 receiving yards just once in his first five seasons, and I don’t think it will happen again even if there’s more passing volume with Todd Monken taking over the offense.
