In this new weekly column, I’ll be picking out five of the most important stats that I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite (FREE THIS WEEK!), and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. Adam Thielen has the 2nd most targets (coming 5 or more yards down the field) with at least a step of separation.
Bryce Young may not look great, and Thielen may be old, but the dude is getting open. Only Ja’Marr Chase has seen more open targets, and his team passes way more than the Panthers do.
I had to see if Thielen found the fountain of youth or if he actually wasn’t all that bad last season. In 2022 Thielen ranked 9th in percentage of his total targets that had at least a step of separation and were 5+ yards down the field. Believe it or not, he actually ranked above Justin Jefferson in this statistic. We clearly assumed Thielen was much worse than he actually was due to his age. It wouldn’t make sense for the Vikings to prioritize targets to Thielen over Jefferson or design high-value targets for him, but now he is very clearly the best receiver Carolina has to offer.
2. Jalen Hurts has the second lowest Passer Rating when he bails or is pressured out of the pocket
The only QB with a lower passer rating is Zach Wilson. Hurts also ranks 4th-worst in FP/DB when bailing or being pressured out of the pocket.
This is a problem dating back to last season. Hurts ranked dead last among QBs that were forced out of the pocket at least 50 times in both passer rating and FP/DB. Six of the Eagles’ next seven opponents rank inside the top 10 in dropbacks seen where the QB is pressured out of the pocket or bails the pocket.
3. In two games playing alongside Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua has a 29.5% target share, a 33.6% air yardage share, and a 31.3% first-read target share.
People may be disappointed with Nacua’s production this past week and fear Kupp is starting to take over in this offense. While Kupp did look like the WR1 we have seen in the past, Nacua still looks really good in the peripheral numbers.
Here’s how Puka’s numbers with Kupp would rank across the season among all WRs.
Target Share - 6th
Air Yard Share - 22th
1st Read Share - 20th
That makes Nacua a locked-in WR2 with WR1 upside every single week. Plus, if Kupp were to tweak his hamstring again, we’ve seen the immense ceiling he can offer.
4. Jerome Ford hasn’t seen a red zone snap since Week 3
I’m not totally sure what is going on with Ford’s usage, but Kareem Hunt’s snap share has risen for three weeks in a row, up to 37% this week. It does seem Ford is the team’s preferred runner – he played on a season-high 60% of the team’s rushing snaps this past week.
He is by far the better runner of the two, but his 0.42 yards before contact per attempt is the lowest in the league. If he can get better blocking, he should be able to break off some big runs.
Hunt’s usage has mostly been in the passing game, where he hit a season-high 43% passing snap share to lead the backfield this past week. For fantasy, remember, targets are worthly roughly 2.5 times as much as carries in PPR leagues.
The other major concern for Ford is that Hunt saw all 5 of the team’s red zone snaps this past week, and Pierre Strong took 2 of the 3 red zone snaps from the prior week. The Browns haven’t had many red zone snaps since Deshaun Watson last played, but it is concerning to see the Browns pulling Ford off the field in favor of other backs.
5. During Weeks 4-6, Drake London had an 80.0% catchable ball rate, and Kyle Pitts had a 71.4% catchable ball rate.
London is the WR16 in FPG over the past three weeks, and Pitts ranks as the TE8. That is a massive improvement from what we saw to start the season, and a big reason is they are actually finally getting catchable balls.
In Weeks 1-3, Pitts and London had the lowest and the 3rd lowest catchable ball rate by a wide margin among 66 qualifying WRs and TEs.
Over the past three weeks, London ranks 28th highest, and Pitts is 14th. They still aren’t anywhere close to the top of the league, but this is a massive improvement from when their season started. Hopefully, Desmond Ridder can at least continue to give his playmakers a chance by throwing the ball to spots London and Pitts can get their hands on it.
