Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.
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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!
Current Record: 14-5; Week 7: 3-1
Caleb Huntley (ATL) UNDER 9.5 Rushing Attempts
Huntley has only been playing in around 26% of the snaps over the last month, as fellow Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier has been increasing his snap count every week over that time, up to 62% last week. He has also handled most of the carries in that timeframe and had 16 last week. Huntley had 6 last week, proving that a clear split is occurring with Cordarrelle Patterson almost ready to return off of IR.
The Panthers have been able to be run on this season, but they have been playing a lot better since Matt Rhule was fired, and may be realizing they have a shot to win this division. I’d bet on this game being closer than the books are thinking and that Huntley will not have the opportunities to get to 10 rushing attempts.
D.J. Moore (CAR) OVER 5.5 Receptions
Moore has seen his opportunities tick up recently, and it seems to be correlating with QB PJ Walker now entrenched as the starter for the Panthers. Moore has seen 20 targets over the last 2 games and 1 spare quarter, as Walker has found him plenty of times. He looked extremely solid against the Buccaneers last week and I think he’s hitting his stride.
This is a great time for Moore and Walker to be clicking as well, as the Falcons’ secondary is absolutely decimated. 3 of the 4 starting defensive backs are injured and out for this game, and the defense looked horrendous against the Bengals last week. Moore should be extremely frequently targeted in a great matchup.
George Kittle (SF) OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
Several things stick out about this line that are making it an extremely attractive prop. First of all, Deebo Samuel is out for this game. In his last three starts when Samuel is out of the lineup, Kittle had 4 catches for 92 yards, 7 catches for 68 yards, and 9 catches for 181 yards.
Second of all, and extremely relevant to this matchup, the Rams run the highest percentage of zone coverage in the NFL at 85%. Kittle has seen a higher zone coverage target rate versus man coverage target rate in every season, and excels against it. Kyle Shanahan has recently dominated this matchup in the regular season as well, going 7-0 in the 49ers’ last seven games against the Rams. Kittle will be busy.
Raheem Mostert OVER 69.5 Rushing Yards
Mostert has really come on strong over the past month, averaging 77.5 rush yards per game while cementing himself as the top option in Miami’s rushing offense. Now he draws one of the most friendly matchups this season in the Detroit Lions’ rush defense, which ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game with 129.8.
Mostert should be plenty busy on a Miami team that has shown themselves to be surprisingly potent on offense at times and with the Lions most likely focused on finding ways to stop Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Mostert is free to drop the hammer on their defensive line with his own skills.
Final Thoughts
When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all four legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!
Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.
