Week 2 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 1 DFS slate.

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) @ New York Giants (O/U: 43.0)

Trends:

• The 33.4 fantasy points that Saquon Barkley scored in Week 1 was his best fantasy performance since Week 16 of 2019. Or, rather, his best fantasy performance of the last 998 days.

• Barkley has only been a favorite eight times in his career. In those eight games, he’s averaged 28.1 DraftKings FPG (RB1) and 24.2 Fanduel FPG (RB1).

• In Sterling Shepard’s last 12 healthy games with Daniel Jones, he’s averaged 17.2 FPG (~WR9) and 8.7 targets per game (~WR14).

• In his career, Christian McCaffrey has averaged 20.8 DraftKings FPG as a favorite, but 24.5 DraftKings FPG as an underdog.

Matchups:

• Carolina was tough against opposing slots last season, allowing the 3rd-fewest FPG (10.2). But, Curtis Samuel did post an 8/55/1 line on Sunday. Richie James ran 75% of his 20 receiving routes from the slot in Week 1.

• New York, on the other hand, gave up the 6th-most FPG to opposing slot WRs (15.0) last season, granted they have a new DC this year. Shi Smith was a full-time player for Carolina last week and ran 97% of his routes from the slot.

• Carolina was a stout matchup for opposing RBs last year, allowing the fewest receiving FPG (6.1) and the 3rd-fewest FPG (18.8). But, they offer the league’s 2nd-worst run-defense after Week 1 (41.8 PFF rush defense grade), so Barkley may still have the opportunity for a hyper-efficient outing.

New England Patriots (-1.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

• Najee Harris has played in 12 career games with an implied team total of 21.0 or less. He’s exceeded 20.0 DraftKings points four times, while falling under double-digits four times – averaging just 14.8 DraftKings FPG and 12.8 Fanduel FPG in that sample. Pittsburgh’s implied total in Week 2 is just 19.5.

• Diontae Johnson has played in 25 games with an implied team total of 21.0 or less. He’s exceeded 20.0 DraftKings points in just 20% of those contests, while falling below double-digit DraftKings points in 28% of contests.

• Chase Claypool ran 95% of his routes from the slot in Week 1. Over his first 2 seasons, he ran just 20% of his total routes from the slot.

Matchups:

• New England was the 2nd-toughest team against opposing QBs last year, allowing just 14.1 FPG. On Sunday, they allowed just 14.8 FPG to Tua Tagovailoa in a game where Miami’s passing attack did just about whatever it wanted.

• Last season, the Steelers' defense gave up a league-leading 5.0 YPC, and 16.7 rushing FPG to opposing RBs (5th-most). And they are without superstar edge defender TJ Watt for at least a month.

• NE gave up the 4th-fewest FPG (17.5) to opposing outside WRs last year. And they gave up the 8th-fewest FPG (11.7) to opposing slot WRs.

• NE was PFF’s 2nd-worst graded pass coverage unit in Week 1 (44.1 coverage grade).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Mike Evans has averaged just 10.2 FPG when playing New Orleans (thanks, Marshon Lattimore), compared to 17.2 FPG against all other opponents.

• Michael Thomas averages 19.6 DraftKings FPG (~WR5) and 15.0 Fanduel FPG (~WR6) in his 77 career games. In his first game back since January 10th of 2021, Thomas scored 22.7 FPs on eight targets. He’s the WR19 on DraftKings and the WR15 on Fanduel (by salary) this week.

• Since the start of the 2021 season, Leonard Fournette has exceeded 26.0 DraftKings points in 24% of his games. He’s fallen under double-digit DraftKings points in just 12% of his games.

• Since 2019, Alvin Kamara averages 20.8 FPG when New Orleans is favored, but just 17.3 FPG when they are underdogs.

• Juwan Johnson ran the 9th-most routes (32) and earned the 11th-most targets (5) of any Week 1 TE. He’s $2,500 on DraftKings in Week 2.

Matchups:

• New Orleans has long been a brutal defense for opposing RBs. Last year, they allowed the fewest YPC (3.6), 2nd-fewest rushing FPG (9.5), and lowest overall FPG (17.4) to opposing RBs. However, they were shredded by 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson to the tune of 120 yards and 5.5 YPC in Week 1.

• TB allowed the fewest rushing FPG to opposing RBs last year (8.0), but they did allow 12.1 receiving FPG to opposing RBs (4th-most). In his two games against Tampa Bay last season, Alvin Kamara scored just 16.6 and 5.1 FPs, averaging 5.0 targets per game.

New York Jets (+6) @ Cleveland Browns (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

• When the Browns are favored by 4.0 points or more, Nick Chubb has averaged 19.5 FPG, compared to 15.5 FPG outside of that split.

• Elijah Moore has averaged 14.7 FPG (~WR20) in the ten games where he’s earned six or more targets, including outings of 29.6 (with Joe Flacco), 27.4, and 20.6 FPs. He’s priced as a low-end WR3 on both DFS sites, and even saw his price fall $100 on DraftKings relative to Week 1.

• Kareem Hunt saw significantly better red zone usage than Nick Chubb last week, earning four red zone carries and 1 red zone target, compared to just two red zone carries for Chubb.

• $50 million man David Njoku earned just one target last week on 26 routes. $4 million man Harrison Bryant earned four targets on 26 routes.

Matchups:

• NYJ gave up the 5th-most FPG to opposing QBs in 2021.

• Last season, opposing RBs out-scored their expectation by +10.4 FPG when playing the Jets – the worst mark by any defense over the past five seasons.

• No team gave up more rushing FPG to opposing RBs (19.2) than the New York Jets last season. They also ranked 1st in overall FPG allowed to opposing RBs (31.5). I’m sure Nick Chubb is salivating.

Miami Dolphins (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• The 17 rushing yards Lamar Jackson had last Sunday was his 3rd-worst rushing performance in a healthy start ever.

• Over his career, Tyreek Hill averages an insane 26.3 DraftKings FPG as an underdog (14 instances), but just 17.5 DraftKings FPG as a favorite (86 instances). Unsurprisingly, Hill also averages 25.6 FPG in losses, but just 16.6 FPG in wins.

• Hill has exceeded 29.0 DraftKings points in 43% of his career games as an underdog. He has scored fewer than 20.0 DraftKings points in just 36% of games in that sample.

• Jaylen Waddle has scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in 5 of his last 7 games.

• Miami led the NFL in pass rate over expectation in Week 1. And that was despite allowing only 7 points. Imagine what they will look like in a shootout?

Matchups:

• The Ravens' secondary was massacred by injuries last season, allowing the most FPG to opposing outside WRs (24.5), and the most passing FPG to opposing QBs (18.5). On Sunday, Joe Flacco threw for over 300 yards, granted he did have to attempt 59 passes.

• Baltimore allowed the 3rd-fewest YPC last season (3.7), but they were gashed by Jets rushers on Sunday, giving up a cumulative 83 rushing yards on 16 carries (5.2 YPC).

• Excluding TDs, Baltimore gave up the 4th-most FPG to opposing TEs (12.4). Tyler Conklin had an 81% route share last week, and earned five targets.

Indianapolis Colts (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 47.0)

Trends:

• Over the last two seasons, Jonathan Taylor averages an insane 26.3 DraftKings FPG and 22.7 Fanduel FPG in games where Indianapolis is favored by 3.0-points or more (8 instances).

• The 13 targets Michael Pittman had in Week 1 were the 2nd-most of any game in his career.

• Prior to joining the Colts, Matt Ryan’s WR1 had historically averaged 17.6 FPG, which would’ve ranked no worse than WR7 since 2019.

• Zay Jones tied with Davante Adams for the 2nd-most end zone targets of the week (3), and had the 15th-most overall targets of any WR in Week 1 (9).

Matchups:

• The Colts gave up the 6th-most passing FPG to opposing QBs last season (16.3). In Week 1, Davis Mills threw for 240 yards and a 98.9 passer rating. He averaged 205 YPG in 2021.

• Teams didn’t need to throw on Jacksonville much last season, but they were extremely efficient when they did. The Jags gave up the 4th-worst passer rating (100.8), and the 8th-most passing fantasy points per dropback (0.47) last year. In week 1, they allowed Carson Wentz to throw for 313 yards and 4 TDs.

• Excluding TDs, the Colts were the most favorable defense for opposing TEs to play against last year, giving up 12.6 FPG. In Week 1, Texans TEs scored 22.0 FPs (3rd-most).

Washington Commanders (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 49.0)

Trends:

• D’Andre Swift has only played in five career games with a total of 48.5 or higher and has averaged 23.2 DraftKings FPG (~RB3) and 19.8 Fanduel FPG (~RB3) in those games. His DraftKings scores in those games: 29.5, 28.4, 23.7, 22.4, and 11.8.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen at least 10 targets in each of his last seven games. Last year, only 12 players earned double-digit targets in 7 or more games.

• In Week 1, Jamaal Williams had 5 carries inside the 10-yard line. D’Andre Swift had just 1.

• In Week 1, Antonio Gibson ran 23 pass routes (a mark he exceeded just once in 2021) while also finishing with the 2nd-best PFF receiving grade among RBs (86.5).

• No rookie WR earned a higher snap share than Jahan Dotson (88%). Dotson ran a route on 89% of Wentz’s dropbacks and appears locked into a full-time role.

Matchups:

• Last season, Washington gave up the 5th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs (23.2) and the 5th-most FPG to opposing slot WRs (15.1). Jaguars WRs combined for 226 receiving yards against Washington in Week 1.

• No team gave up more FPG to opposing QBs (22.6) than Washington did last year.

• By schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing RBs, the Lions are the only defense to rank bottom-3 in each of the past two seasons, or bottom-6 over the past three seasons.

• On average, RBs have outscored their expectation by +5.2 FPG (+37% more than next closest) when playing the Lions over the past three seasons.

• In Week 1, the Eagles collectively rushed for 216 yards and 4 scores.

Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

• Over the last two seasons, Jeff Wilson has averaged 16.0 FPG (~RB11) in the 11 games he’s earned double-digit carries.

• 12 of the 15 career-best fantasy performances from either Jeff Wilson or Elijah Mitchell have come when SF was favored. The average spread in those games was SF -3.9.

• DK Metcalf has averaged 18.9 FPG in his 9 career games where the Seahawks have lost by double-digits. He averages just 13.6 FPG in all other games.

• Tyler Lockett has similar splits, albeit not as extreme. Lockett averages 14.0 FPG in games Seattle has lost by double-digits, and 11.8 FPG in all other games.

Matchup:

• Seattle was the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs last year, allowing just 16.0 FPG.

• No team gave up less rushing FPG to opposing QBs last year than the Seahawks (1.4 FPG).

• Seattle gave up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing RBs last season (29.8), but it was largely due to backfield receiving, as the Seahawks gave up by far the most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (15.4).

Atlanta Falcons (+10.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Despite being a WR/RB hybrid, Cordarrelle Patterson fairs worse in losses (14.0 FPG) than wins (17.0 FPG) since 2021.

• Surprisingly, Cooper Kupp has done very poorly in similar spreads, averaging just 11.2 FPG when the Rams are favored by 6.0-points or more since 2020, compared to 22.4 FPG outside of that split.

• Matthew Stafford has scored over 24.0 DraftKings points in 63% of the games he’s played as a 7.0-point favorite (or better) since joining the Rams.

• Since 2021, Darrell Henderson averaged 16.9 FPG (~RB10) in the four games he’s played where the Rams have won by double digits. He averages just 12.0 FPG outside of this split

• Henderson has exceeded 20.0 DraftKings points just twice since 2021. In both of those games, the Rams were favored by at least 8.0-points.

• Marcus Mariota had the 2nd-most designed rushes (8) of any QB in Week 1. He finished Week 1 with the 3rd-most attempts (12), 2nd-most rushing FPG (13.2), and the 2nd-most rush yards of any QB (72) if you exclude Taysom Hill.

• Marcus Mariota averages 21.5 FPG (~QB4) in the 12 career games he’s had at least 7 carries. He’s scored over 25.0 fantasy points in 42% of those games, and of his 8-best career fantasy performances, 5 of them come from that sample.

Matchups:

• By schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs, Atlanta ranked worst of any defense over the past two (+3.1, +30% more than next-closest) or three seasons (+3.1, +22% more than next-closest). And they’re the only defense to rank bottom-3 in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to QBs in each of the past two seasons.

• In Week 1, Jameis Winston scored 21.7 fantasy points against Atlanta despite there being “pain everywhere.”

• Last year, the Rams gave up the 3rd-fewest YPC to opposing RBs (3.7).

Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 41.5)

Trends:

• When Cincinnati is favored by 4.0 points or more, Joe Mixon averages 19.5 FPG (~RB4). He averages just 14.8 FPG outside of this split.

• Over his career, Ezekiel Elliott averages 19.9 FPG (~RB4) with Dak Prescott under center. He averages just 11.8 FPG (~RB29) without Prescott.

• The same is true for CeeDee Lamb, but the splits aren’t close to as extreme. Lamb averages 14.8 FPG with Prescott, but 12.1 without him.

• Ja’Marr Chase has averaged 20.8 DraftKings FPG as an underdog in his career, but just 16.1 FPG as a favorite.

• Tee Higgins is questionable with a concussion. Ja’Marr Chase averages +6.0 more FPG in games Higgins has played (19.9 FPG), compared to games Higgins has sat (13.9 FPG). Higgins has missed 3 games in that sample.

Matchups:

• Dallas gave up the 6th-most FPG to opposing outside WRs last season (23.1).

• With that said, Dallas was tough against the slot, giving up just 10.6 FPG (4th-fewest).

• The Cowboys allowed the 5th-fewest FPG to opposing RBs last season (20.2).

• The Bengals were outright bad against TEs last season, giving up the 3rd-most FPG last season (12.5), excluding TDs. Good news for Dalton Schultz in a game where Dallas will have to throw to have a chance.

Houston Texans (+10) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Russell Wilson has averaged 19.8 FPG as a favorite of 8.0-points or more. He averages 22.6 FPG outside of this split.

• Brandin Cooks averages 16.3 DraftKings FPG (~WR14) when playing as an underdog of 5.0-points or more (19 instances). He has games of 42.6 and 32.2 DraftKings points in that sample.

• Javonte Williams posted the highest PFF receiving grade of any RB in Week 1 (87.0). The 12 targets he earned on Monday Night Football was the most by a Denver RB since Leonard Russell had 13 targets on September 26 of 1994.

Matchups:

• Houston was massacred by opposing RBs on the ground last year, allowing the 3rd-most rushing FPG (18.5) and the 4th-most overall FPG (26.8). In Week 1, Jonathan Taylor ran for 161 yards.

• Denver was a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the 3rd-fewest FPG (16.1) of any team last season. Geno Smith scored 17.2 FPs against them in Week 1.

Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 51.5)

Trends:

• Kyler Murray averages 26.6 DraftKings FPG (~QB1) and 25.7 Fanduel FPG (~QB1) as an underdog in games with a total of 50.0 or more (10 instances). He scored over 28.0 DraftKings points in 50% of those games.

• Derek Carr has been exceedingly disappointing in similar scenarios, averaging a pathetic 13.7 DraftKings FPG and 12.7 Fanduel FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher where he is favored.

• In his first game with Davante Adams, Carr posted a worse PFF passing grade (42.3) than Joe Burrow, who threw 4 interceptions.

• Josh Jacobs has played in 8 games where the Raiders were favored by 3.0-points or more, with a total of over 47.0. In those games, he averages 19.7 FPG (~RB4). He averages just 14.2 FPG outside of that split.

• Marquise Brown averages 18.2 DraftKings FPG as an underdog in games with a total over 50.0, but only 13.6 FPG as a favorite.

• Over the last 3 seasons, Davante Adams averaged an insane 28.7 DraftKings FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher. In that 14 games sample, Adams has scored over 30.0 DraftKings points (6 times) twice as often as he’s fallen under 15.0 DraftKings points (3 times).

• Adams averages an equally insane 29.8 FPG in his 7 victories with a total of 50.0 or higher over the last 3 seasons. For reference, 2019 Christian McCaffrey (the 6th-best fantasy season ever) averaged 29.5 FPG.

• Davante Adams' grandparents will have their first ever opportunity to see their grandson play professional football in person this Sunday. He moved to Vegas, in part, to make that happen. According to my proprietary model, this makes Davante Adams a lock button play in all formats.

Matchups:

• Last season, the Raiders gave up the 6th-most YPG (54.0) on deep throws to opposing WRs.

• The Cardinals gave up the 3rd-most FPG to opposing outside WRs (24.3) last year. In Week 1, the KC passing attack put up 360 yards in a game where Arizona was clearly outmatched in the secondary.

• Arizona finished Week 1 as PFF’s lowest-graded coverage unit (36.8).

• The Raiders were remarkably tough against opposing slot WRs last year, allowing just 9.5 FPG (fewest).

• But, Las Vegas was dreadful against opposing RBs, allowing the 3rd-most FPG of any team (27.3). In Week 1, the Chargers' RBs scored just 18.2 FPG (11th-most).