Week 15 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 15 DFS slate.

Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) @ Chicago Bears (O/U: 48.5)

Trends:

• Miles Sanders had his best game of the season in Week 14, scoring 28.5 fantasy points on 17 carries and 3 targets. Still, his usage (measured by XFP), is relatively poor. He has exceeded 20.0 XFP just once this season, and excluding that game, he averages just 11.8 XFP/G – a mark that would rank 27th among all RBs over the full season.

• But maybe Sanders’ efficiency is just a side effect of an outstanding offense. AJ Brown (+2.7 PAR), Sanders (+2.7 PAR), DeVonta Smith (+1.1 PAR), and the currently injured Dallas Goedert (+2.7 PAR) are all significantly outperforming their usage-based expectations this season.

• The Eagles have posted a positive pass rate over expectation in eight games this season. Jalen Hurts’ best three fantasy performances have come in those games, averaging 28.3 FPG across the sample. Interestingly, all but one of those games (Week 9 VS. Houston) came against teams that ranked bottom-12 in schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed to opposing QBs. The Eagles are playing matchups incredibly well and letting that dictate their run/pass splits in individual games.

• When Philadelphia’s PROE is negative (5 games), Hurts averages just 21.7 FPG (his worst two games of the season have come in that sample). But Miles Sanders averages 15.8 FPG and 14.1 XFP/G; which represent a 14% and 12% improvement over his current season-long averages, respectively. Sanders’ best two fantasy performances have come in that sample.

• Justin Fields is the QB1 over his last six games, averaging 28.9 FPG and an insane 103.8 rushing YPG on 12.3 carries per game. For perspective, the rushing YPG record for QBs is 80.4 (2019 Lamar Jackson).

• Fields is currently on pace for 1,206 rushing yards this season, which would tie 2019 Lamar Jackson for the most all-time.

• David Montgomery has averaged 16.2 XFP/G, 17.4 FPG, and a 75% snap share in his three games without Khalil Herbert. That ranks 7th, 5th, and 1st among slate-eligible RBs over the full season. Montgomery is a clear value priced as the RB10 on DraftKings ($6,300).

• Chase Claypool is the only Chicago WR I would consider in play since Darnell Mooney went down. He’s posted a 21% and 24% target share in his two games without Mooney, averaging a 77% route share in those games.

• But Cole Kmet is earning the biggest uptick in usage. He’s led the team in target share in back-to-back weeks (25% and 28%), and posted his two highest route shares of the season (89% and 82%) in his last two games.

Matchups:

• I devoted a decent portion of the trends column discussing the Eagles’ run/pass splits and how they are largely matchup dependent. I expect them to go run-heavy this week, with Chicago ranking as the league’s premier run funnel (-6.0% PROE allowed, last) and as the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air (-1.6 FPG). This is worth a boost to Miles Sanders, and is a knock on Jalen Hurts’ upside.

• The Bears are also the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-4.5 FPG). That hurts AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both run the majority of their routes on the outside.

• The Eagles are the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.2 FPG), but much closer to a neutral matchup for QBs on the ground (-0.6 FPG). Justin Fields has scored 56% of his fantasy points this season from rushing, so I’d only consider this a slightly below-average matchup.

Atlanta Falcons (+7.0) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• Desmond Ridder is the starting QB in Atlanta. I wouldn’t expect any stylistic change in the offense, given he’s a very similar player to Marcus Mariota.

• Olamide Zaccheaus remains an interesting value WR. He’s earned 8 and 5 targets in his two games without Kyle Pitts, and is the only non-Drake London pass catcher to earn a full-time role (83% route share). He’s a solid salary-saving option at just $3,400 on DraftKings.

• Alvin Kamara hasn’t scored more than 12.9 fantasy points since Week 8. His efficiency has been dreadful (-3.4 PAR), but he’s also averaged just 11.9 XFP/G. He must be injured in some capacity, as he averaged 19.6 XFP/G before Week 8.

• But, maybe Mark Ingram’s injury forces New Orleans to feed Kamara again? Ingram did siphon 57% of backfield XFP in Week 13, and 3rd-string RB Dwayne Washington hasn’t earned more than 2.7 XFP in a game this season.

• Rashid Shaheed is the clear WR3 in this offense, earning an 11% target share on a 67% route share since Week 11. He’s one of the best sub-$3,500 WR options I can remember on DraftKings, if only for his big play ability. He has two TDs of 40 or more yards this season on just 15 total touches.

• Chris Olave averages 17.4 FPG (WR9) when the Saints are favored but just 12.4 FPG (WR35) as an underdog.

• Adam Trautman earned just a 50% route share in his first game without Juwan Johnson. Johnson’s absence is arguably a bigger boost for Taysom Hill, who earned his highest target share of the season (11%) in Week 11.

Matchups:

• Atlanta is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.1 FPG), and the 4th-softest matchup for opposing WRs (+4.7 FPG). A good spot for the New Orleans passing attack.

• New Orleans is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs on the ground (+1.1 FPG) – setting up a favorable rushing matchup for Desmond Ridder.

Kansas City Chiefs (-14.0) @ Houston Texans (O/U: 49.0)

Trends:

• Patrick Mahomes averages 27.3 FPG as a favorite of 10.0 points or more, which is a 17% improvement on his career baseline (23.3 FPG).

• Isiah Pacheco’s best game from a volume perspective (22 carries, 19.5 XFP) came in a 16-point win over the Rams in Week 12… Perhaps he could see similar usage in Week 15 if this game gets out of hand as oddsmakers expect. And since Week 10, Pacheco has earned 71% of backfield goal-line carries.

• Still, Jerick McKinnon is the lead back in this offense, leading the backfield in XFP in six of the last eight weeks.

• Skyy Moore is permanently capped at a ~30% route share and has only earned serious targets in the games JuJu Smith-Schuster missed. He’s dust for the remainder of the season, barring injuries to one of the other starters.

• I would be surprised if Dameon Pierce plays this week, as he’s dealing with a high-ankle sprain. With Eno Benjamin recently being released, I expect a close to even split of backfield work between Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale. For what it’s worth, Ogunbowale led non-Pierce RBs in snaps last week (18), but Burkhead led the group in XFP (6.3). Both players earned three touches.
• With no Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins, Chris Moore earned an absurd 46% target share, while Phillip Dorsett (83%) and Amari Rodgers (66%) worked as full-time players based on route share. Rodgers earned a career-high 5 targets and 16.0 fantasy points. Should Cooks and Collins miss Week 15, all three of Moore, Dorsett, and Rodgers are in play as salary-saving options.

Matchups:

• Kansas City is the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.9 FPG) and the 8th-softest matchup for opposing WRs. A solid matchup for the Houston passing attack.

• Houston is the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.8 FPG) but easily the softest matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+5.0 FPG). Isiah Pacheco has earned 73% of the Chiefs' carries since Week 10, so this matchup could spell an even larger workload in Week 15 for the rookie.

• Houston has also been a brutal matchup for opposing slots by schedule-adjusted FPG (-4.5, 3rd-toughest), suggesting passing volume will be funneled away from JuJu Smith-Schuster and to Travis Kelce and the outside WRs.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (O/U: 38.5)

Trends:

• Kenny Pickett looks likely to miss Week 15. So what does that mean for the rest of the offense if Mitch Trubisky is under center?

• Trubisky was much more aggressive throwing the ball downfield, posting a 9.7 aDOT (Pickett’s was 7.1) and a 9.5% deep throw rate (Pickett’s was 6.5%). That’s worth a boost to George Pickens (15.3 aDOT) and a slight knock to Pat Freiermuth (8.6 aDOT).

• Trubisky (61.4%) also targeted WRs at a notably higher rate than Pickett (52.7%), further suggesting his presence as the starter benefits George Pickens and Diontae Johnson.

• All four of Diontae Johnson’s best games this season came in contests where Trubisky threw at least 30 passes. He averaged 14.2 FPG in those contests (WR20). He pops as a solid DraftKings value at his cheapest price point since Week 9 of 2020 ($5,100).

• Carolina made sure to get both Chuba Hubbard (14.5 XFP) and D’Onta Foreman (17.2 XFP) heavily involved in Week 14. Hubbard earning 17 and 14 carries over the last two games spells some concerns for Foreman’s upside, given Hubbard hadn’t exceeded 9 carries in any prior contest. Still, Foreman has the better role close to the goal line, earning 65% of red zone carries and 80% of goal line carries over the last two games.

• DJ Moore hasn’t exceeded 6 targets since Week 9. He’s been absurdly streaky this season, averaging 22.4 FPG in his best three games but just 6.8 FPG in his other 10 games. He’s a high-risk, high-reward GPP play, and is arguably even riskier than normal this week given his knee sprain.

• Terrace Marshall remains moderately interesting as a salary-saving option on DraftKings ($3,500), given the 17% target share he’s earned since Week 8 on a route share of 82%.

Matchups:

• The Steelers are the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+2.3 FPG), setting up a favorable spot for DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall.

• Carolina is the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+3.6 FPG), but the 9th-toughest against TEs (-1.7 FPG), suggesting a tough matchup for Pat Freiermuth and a favorable matchup for these Steelers’ WRs.

Detroit Lions (Pick ‘em) @ New York Jets (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Jared Goff’s home vs. road splits are as extreme as you will see in fantasy. He averages 9.9 DraftKings FPG (high of 14.9) on the road, compared to 23.1 DraftKings FPG at home (high of 37.2). He’s either a high-end QB1 or one of the worst fantasy QBs in the NFL, seemingly all dependent on where he’s playing the game.

• Goff has also struggled in low total games this season, averaging 9.2 FPG when the game total is sub-46.0 (2 instances).

• In Week 13, D’Andre Swift led the backfield with a 51% snap share, 18 opportunities, and 6 red zone opportunities – scoring 21.1 fantasy points (his best game since Week 1) on a 22.4 XFP workload (his best workload of the year by 3.8 XFP).

• But Week 14 wasn’t nearly as fruitful for Swift…

• Swift earned just 9.6 XFP on 10 total opportunities. Essentially, his workload was cut in half from Week 13, while his snap share fell to just 36%. He’s very difficult to trust moving forward with this sporadic workload.

• Excluding games where Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered an injury or was on the injury report listed as questionable, he’s averaging 10.8 targets and 23.8 FPG over his last 13 games. He’s hit at least 15.0 fantasy points in 12 of 14 and double-digit targets in 11 of 14. Over the full season, 23.8 FPG would lead all WRs (by 1.0 FPG), and 10.8 targets per game would rank 4th.

• If you look closely, St. Brown is this year’s Cooper Kupp – with one key difference. Kupp’s average DraftKings price in his final eight games was $9,300 – $1,500 more than St. Brown’s Week 14 price tag. St. Brown is one of the best DFS values for seemingly the 10th week in a row.

• Mike White has played five fully healthy starts, scoring 31.1, 27.8, 22.5, 10.1, and 6.0 DraftKings points in those games. He’s either finished as a mid- to high-end QB1, or posted a useless score. He’s the ideal GPP QB.

• Zonovan Knight has averaged 14.8 XFP/G over his last three games, but he did see his worst usage of that stretch in Week 14 (11.3 XFP), while Michael Carter earned 10.1 XFP. Knight dominated rushing work (17 of 22 backfield carries), while Carter earned 5 of 7 backfield targets. Simply put: Knight is the clear early-down workhorse, and Carter is the 3rd-down scatback.

• Garrett Wilson is still a stud, but Elijah Moore led this WR group in XFP for the first time since Week 5 (13.6). Moore averages 14.1 FPG and 6.7 targets per game without Zach Wilson – marks that rank 20th- and 39th-best among all WRs over the full season. And over the last two weeks, Moore is back to being a full-time player, earning 16 total targets on a route share of 84%. Needless to say, Moore is way too cheap at just $3,600 on DraftKings this week.

• Wilson and Moore get the added boost of veteran WR Corey Davis appearing likely to miss this contest with a concussion. Should Davis sit, that frees up 4.8 targets per game and 8.2 XFP/G – creating arguably the best pass game setup for both of these WRs this season.

Matchups:

• The Jets are the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.4 FPG) and the single-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-6.9 FPG). So this is a brutal matchup for Jared Goff, DJ Chark, and Jameson Williams, but Amon-Ra St. Brown (-0.7 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to slot WRs) draws easily the most favorable spot.

• Detroit is easily the most favorable schedule-adjusted matchup for both QBs (+5.8 FPG) and opposing slot WRs (+4.6 FPG) – setting up a near-perfect matchup for both Mike White and Elijah Moore.

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Dak Prescott hasn’t exceeded 26.0 fantasy points in a game this season, and he’s exceeded 20.0 fantasy points in just two of his seven full games. He’s having his worst fantasy season (15.9 FPG) ever.

• And maybe the Cowboys' run-centric approach is partially to blame. Dallas has posted a -1.2% pass rate over expectation since Prescott returned as the starter in Week 7. That ranks 10th-lowest among all teams over the full season.

• Tony Pollard remains the most efficient RB in football. He’s averaging +5.1 PAR (1st), 5.7 YPC (2nd), a 10.1% explosive play% (1st), and 3.94 yards after contact per attempt (1st). Absurd efficiency.

• That said, Ezekiel Elliott has led the backfield in XFP in back-to-back weeks, averaging 20.4 XFP. Since his Week 11 return, Elliott has earned 73% of goal line carries and 61% of backfield red zone opportunities. He carries better TD upside than the hyper-efficient Pollard.

• The 11.8 XFP/G that Dalton Schultz has averaged since Dak Prescott returned from injury ranks 2nd-best among slate-eligible TEs. Despite this, Schultz is priced as the TE5, presenting solid value.

• Trevor Lawrence is PFF’s 2nd-highest graded passer since Week 9, averaging 22.5 FPG (QB4). Prior to that, he was PFF’s 5th-lowest graded passer in the first eight weeks of the season, averaging 15.4 FPG (QB18). He may have turned a corner in terms of fantasy value and real-life play.

• Over the last two weeks, Travis Etienne has earned 90.9% of backfield XFP, but averaged just 5.9 FPG. His usage is so good that we have to anticipate a serious positive regression soon…

• Zay Jones has averaged 16.4 XFP/G over his last four games – a mark that leads all Jacksonville WRs and ties Chris Godwin for 10th-best among all WRs over the full season. If this keeps up in any capacity, he’s just too cheap at $4,900 on DraftKings.

• Evan Engram broke the slate in Week 14, scoring 39.2 fantasy points on a 22.7 XFP workload. But, his volume has been as consistent as any non-Kelce TE this season, as he’s posted eight games of double-digit XFP (4th-most among TEs).

Matchups:

• The Cowboys are the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for both opposing QBs (-5.0 FPG) and opposing RBs through the air (-3.9 receiving FPG). A big downgrade for Trevor Lawrence, but I’m not sure it hurts Travis Etienne as much as many would think. 69% of Etienne’s fantasy scoring this season has come on the ground, and Dallas ranks as an almost perfectly-neutral schedule-adjusted matchup against RBs on the ground (-0.2 rushing FPG).

• Dallas is also the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-4.3 FPG), and TEs (-2.3 FPG). An overall brutal matchup for the Jacksonville passing game.

• The Jaguars are the 10th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.3 FPG) and the 5th-softest matchup for opposing WRs (+3.6 FPG). A strong matchup for the Dallas passing game.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.0) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 36.5)

Trends:

• DeAndre Hopkins averages 12.0 targets per game, 89.3 YPG, and 17.6 FPG in his three career games where Colt McCoy has thrown at least 10 passes. Hopkins averages 8.6 targets per game, 78.8 YPG, and 17.7 FPG in all other games with Arizona.

• But Marquise Brown might be the WR1 in Arizona. He’s led the receivers in XFP in both his games since returning from injury, averaging 17.5 XFP/G (compared to 15.6 XFP/G for Hopkins).

• Brown also dominated slot routes in Week 14 (34), and it looks like he’s taken over the Rondale Moore/Greg Dortch slot role. This further suggests he’s the Cardinals’ WR1, as Arizona has the 8th-most targets to slot WRs (163) of any team this season.

• From the Week 15 Usage Report: “Over his last four games, James Conner has played on 91.1% of the team’s snaps (most by any RB over this span) while handling 90.7% of the backfield XFP (also most), and averaging 19.3 carries, 4.8 targets, 18.4 XFP/G (5th-most), and 20.6 FPG (3rd-most).” Conner is the highest-end bell cow and is a clear value at $6,900.

• Trey McBride is moderately in play at just $2,800 on DraftKings, given he’s posted a 12% target share and 70% route share since Zach Ertz was injured.

• I’m not excited about any member of this Broncos offense with Russell Wilson unlikely to play with a concussion.

• That said, Jerry Jeudy’s best XFP performance of the season (19.8 XFP) did come in Brett Rypien’s Week 7 start. From the Week 15 Usage Report: Jeudy has eight games with over 50 receiving yards. And yet, he’s only played in 7 healthy games, or seven games with a snap share of at least 60%. In those games, he’s averaging 7.7 targets (~WR26) and 17.2 FPG (~WR10).

• Greg Dulcich leads all TEs in deep targets per game (1.6) and ranks 2nd among slate-eligible TEs in air yards per game (70.3) and 6th in XFP/G (9.9). So, his current workload presents clear value relative to his TE9 price tag on DraftKings ($3,600).

Matchups:

• Denver is the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.3 FPG) and the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-4.3 FPG). They rank much closer to neutral against RBs (+0.0 FPG) and slot WRs (-0.5 FPG). So, this is a poor matchup for Colt McCoy and DeAndre Hopkins but a much more favorable spot for James Conner and Marquise Brown.

• Arizona is easily the softest matchup for TEs, allowing +6.0 schedule-adjusted FPG. This is the perfect spot for Greg Dulcich.

New England Patriots (-1.0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Rhamondre Stevenson’s Week 15 status is in serious doubt, while Damien Harris looks more likely to play. In Week 14, we saw Kevin Harris lead the backfield with 29 snaps (but just 4.1 XFP) and Pierre Strong earn 19 snaps and lead the backfield with 7.6 XFP. If neither Harris nor Stevenson plays, Strong and Harris would represent some of the best RB values of the season at just $4,000 each.

• DeVante Parker (concussion) isn’t expected to play in this contest, while Jakobi Meyers looks truly questionable. If both sit, Nelson Agholor pops as a strong DraftKings value at just $3,400 given he lead the team in XFP (15.3), target share (30.3%), and route share (87%) in Week 14.

• Josh Jacobs has exceeded 20.0 XFP in four of his last five games, averaging 22.9 XFP/G over that stretch – a mark that leads all players at all positions over the full season by 1.5 XFP/G.

• Davante Adams has been a target monster. He’s averaged an absurd 12.3 targets per game since Week 9, and has two more games with a target share over 30% (9) than the next-closest player.

• I’m not expecting much from either Darren Waller or Hunter Renfrow in their first game back (if they even return for Week 15), but I’m moderately interested in Waller in GPPs at his lowest price point since Week 3 of 2019 ($4,100) if he suits up.

Matchups:

• The Raiders are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+4.6 FPG), the 3rd-softest matchup for opposing RBs (+3.4 FPG), and the 2nd-softest matchup for opposing slot WRs (+3.4 FPG). A great spot overall for the New England offense.

• New England is the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs, setting up one of the toughest matchups Josh Jacobs has faced this year.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 44.0)

Trends:

• The Bengals have averaged a +10.5% PROE since Week 6 – a mark that would rank 3rd-best among all teams.

• And since Week 6, Joe Burrow has averaged 24.5 FPG. Among all QBs over the full season, 24.5 FPG would trail only Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.

• Joe Mixon earned his worst workload of the season (10.0 XFP) in a fully healthy game, recording just 55% of backfield XFP.

• Ja’Marr Chase saw his best usage of the season (15 targets, 23.4 XFP) on Sunday with Tee Higgins limited and Tyler Boyd knocked out with a finger injury.

• If one of Higgins or Boyd can’t play in Week 15 (or if they are limited), then Trenton Irwin is certainly interesting as a punt option at just $3,600 on DraftKings. Irwin averaged an 86% route share and a 9.4% target share in his last three games with one of Tee Higgins or Ja’Marr Chase limited or out.

• The Tampa Bay offense is unexplainably bad. Tom Brady is PFF’s 8th-highest graded passer (78.0 passing grade), and the Tampa offensive line is PFF’s 6th-highest graded unit in pass protection.

• The only obvious answer is the Tampa Bay ground game being easily the worst in the NFL. The Buccaneers are averaging just 3.3 YPG (last) and have the lowest broken tackle rate (5.6%) of any team. But the offensive line ranks 16th in PFF’s run-blocking grades.

• Still, there are reasons to anticipate positive regression from the passing game. For starters, they’ve been extremely unlucky…

• Plus, Tom Brady averages 24.8 FPG as an underdog since joining Tampa Bay, compared to just 22.4 FPG as a favorite. He easily leads the league in games with 50 or more pass attempts (5). So, the volume is there. Eventually (hopefully), we will see the production catch up.

• The Tampa Bay backfield (by XFP%) has been a 53/47 split in favor of Rachaad White. Fournette seems to get preferential treatment near the goal line (100% of goal line snaps over the last two weeks), so he’s arguably the better play given the better TD upside.

Matchups:

• Tampa Bay is the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-2.5 FPG), setting up a tough matchup for Joe Mixon.

• The Bengals are the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-2.3 FPG), but the 12th-softest matchup for opposing slot WRs (+0.7 FPG). A slightly better spot for Chris Godwin than Mike Evans.

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 47.5)

Trends:

• Derrick Henry is the most gamescript-senstive and one of the most matchup-sensitive players in fantasy football…

• Chig Okonkwo ranks 5th among all players at all positions in YPRR (2.58) and has averaged 9.5 XFP/G over his last three contests – a mark that would rank 8th-best among slate-eligible TEs over the full season. Okonkwo is priced as the TE14 on DraftKings this week ($3,100).

• Justin Herbert averages 27.2 FPG in wins, compared to just 21.2 FPG in losses. The Chargers implied win probability this week is 62%.

• Herbert is also playing some of his best football of the season as of late, averaging 23.3 DraftKings FPG (4th among slate-eligible QBs over the full season). Keenan Allen and Mike Williams getting back to full health is a massive boost to the young QB.

• Austin Ekeler has the 11th-most double-digit target games this season (5). He has more 10 target games than Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, and AJ Brown.

• Ekeler is averaging 26.0 FPG in wins this season, which would rank 1st among all flex players by 3.2 FPG over the full season.

• Keenan Allen has dominated usage since returning, averaging 19.2 XFP/G over his last four games. That ranks 1st among slate-eligible WRs over the full season, besting Davante Adams.

• Mike Williams has scored at least 21.6 fantasy points in 50% of his healthy games this season. And he draws an incredible matchup (discussed below).

Matchups:

• The Titans are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs through the air (+4.2 passing FPG), the 2nd-softest matchup for opposing outside WRs (+7.4 FPG), and the 3rd-softest matchup for opposing TEs (+3.7 FPG). This is an outstanding matchup for Justin Herbert, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett.

• The Chargers are the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (-2.3 FPG), so this is a tough spot for Chig Okonkwo.

• But it’s easily one of the best matchups Derrick Henry has had all year. Los Angeles ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (+3.7 rushing FPG), allowing the most YPC (5.4), the 4th-most yards after contact (1,133), and the 3rd-most yards before contact per attempt (1.8). The perfect matchup for Tractorcito.