Fantasy Points Data: Week 15 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: What if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

• No QB draws a better passing matchup than Justin Herbert, with the Titans ranking as the softest schedule-adjusted passing matchup for QBs (+4.2 FPG). Mike Williams also draws the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for outside WRs (+7.4 FPG). Queue up Herbert and Williams stacks.

• Mike White will see the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs, with Detroit allowing +5.8 schedule-adjusted FPG to the position. Who do we stack White with? Garrett Wilson will see a slightly below-average matchup (-0.6 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to outside WRs), but Elijah Moore is slated to face the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+4.6 FPG). He’s easily the best salary-saving option at the WR position this week at just $3,600.

• Expect Isiah Pacheco to be popular this week against a Houston defense that’s easily the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs on the ground (+5.0 FPG). Pacheco has earned 70% of Kansas City’s backfield carries since Week 11.

• Christian McCaffrey has the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs (+4.6 FPG). We could see fireworks on Thursday Night Football.

• It’s tough to have faith in the sporadic and inconsistent Indianapolis passing game, but Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman both draw the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+8.6 FPG).

• No TE will see a better matchup this week than Greg Dulcich – who draws an Arizona defense allowing +6.0 schedule-adjusted to opposing TEs. That’s 58% worse than the next-closest defense.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Jakobi Meyers is questionable this week, but if he suits up he draws a great matchup against a Raiders defense that’s allowed the 2nd-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+3.4 FPG). If he’s out, pivot to Tyquan Thornton at only $3,000, who last week finished just 1 route shy of the team-high (with 58% of those routes coming from the slot).

• Detroit outside WRs draw a brutal matchup against a Jets defense that’s allowed -6.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (toughest). Amon-Ra St. Brown draws a much softer matchup (-0.7 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slots), and I would expect volume to be funneled in his direction as a result.

• I wouldn’t have high hopes for JuJu Smith-Schuster against a Houston defense that ranks as the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.5 FPG).

• Buffalo ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RWRs (+3.0 FPG), which just so happens to be where Tyreek Hill plays the plurality of his snaps (34%).

• DeAndre Hopkins draws a tough matchup against a Denver defense that ranks as the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs. Hopkins is also likely to be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (PFF’s 6th-highest graded CB). Marquise Brown ran 62% of his routes from the slot in Week 14, and draws a much more favorable matchup (-0.5 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing slot WRs).

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• Nico Collins may not play in Week 15, while Brandin Cooks also appears questionable, leaving Chris Moore (who drew an absurd 46% target share in Week 14) as the Texans’ WR1 in a perfect matchup against a Kansas City defense that’s allowing a league-leading 22.7 DraftKings FPG to opposing WR1s.

• Garrett Wilson and DJ Moore draw similarly favorable matchups, with Detroit and Pittsburgh both ranking as top-3 matchups for opposing WR1s.

• Christian Kirk draws the toughest matchup for opposing WR1s, facing a Dallas defense that’s allowed just 11.9 DraftKings FPG to the position.

• Need another reason to love Mike Williams this week? The Titans are tied as the softest overall matchup for WR2s, allowing 14.0 FPG.

• Donovan Peoples-Jones draws a compelling matchup against a Ravens’ defense that’s allowed the 3rd-most FPG to opposing WR2s (13.7).

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• 32% of Mike Williams’ fantasy points have come on deep throws this season, and he just so happens to draw the perfect matchup; Tennessee is allowing a league-leading 78.8 deep passing YPG and 11.0 deep FPG.

• Alec Pierce easily leads the Colts’ starting WRs in aDOT (12.8) and he could have a chance at some big plays this week against a Minnesota defense that’s allowed the 2nd-most deep YPG (67.6) and deep FPG (9.1) this season.

• Elijah Moore leads the Jets in deep targets per game (0.9) and he draws a Detroit defense that’s allowed the 3rd-most deep YPG (65.3) and FPG (9.0) this season.

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Dolphins allow the 2nd-most rushing FPG to opposing QBs (4.7) and the 4th-most FPG (20.7) overall. This is a great spot for Josh Allen.

• No team allows more passing FPG (19.0) than the Tennessee Titans – setting Justin Herbert up with his best matchup of the season.

• I would expect Kansas City to rely on their running game more than usual in a tough passing matchup against a Texans’ defense that’s allowed the fewest FPG (13.2) and fewest passing TDs (11) to opposing QBs this season.

• The Eagles are the least efficient defense to throw against by passer rating allowed (75.5), and they allow the 4th-fewest FPG to opposing QBs overall (14.2). For Justin Fields to have a huge game, he will need to do it on the ground.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Christian McCaffrey has a perfect matchup against a Seattle defense that’s allowing the most FPG (29.0) to opposing RBs this season.

• The Browns are the 3rd-most efficient defense to run against by YPC allowed (5.2) and the 4th-best overall matchup for RBs on the ground (17.8 rushing FPG allowed). The Ravens’ backfield could have a big day.

• Kenneth Walker has an uphill battle against a San Francisco run defense that’s allowed the fewest YPC (3.3) and fewest FPG (16.7) to opposing RBs this season.

• It’s difficult to think of a more perfect spot for Derrick Henry than a matchup with a Chargers defense that’s allowed the most YPC (5.5) and 2nd-most rushing FPG (18.0). He’s historically crushed these spots.

TE Funnel Defenses (% of Total Receiving Fantasy Points Allowed to TEs)

Quick Analysis

• The Cardinals are the premier TE funnel, allowing a league-leading 29.4% of total receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs. Teams recognize this, leading to Arizona allowing the most FPG (18.1) to opposing TEs. Fire up Greg Dulcich in the best-possible matchup for a TE.

• If we exclude TDs due to how volatile they are, Tennessee ranks as the 2nd-best matchup for TEs by FPG allowed (12.4), representing a strong matchup for Gerald Everett.

• Travis Kelce is in a favorable spot against a Texans’ defense that’s allowed 24.8% of their total receiving fantasy production to TEs (4th-most). He’s the only Kansas City pass catcher I am interested in this week.

• I wouldn’t be anxious to play Dalton Schultz against a Saints’ defense that’s allowed the lowest percentage of total receiving fantasy production to opposing TEs (16.1%) and fewest FPG (8.1).

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• Brian Robinson is slated for a solid rushing matchup against a Giants defense that’s been the 4th-most efficient to rush against based on fantasy points over expectation.

• James Conner has averaged 4.6 targets per game since Week 9 – a mark that would rank 9th-best among all RBs over the full season. But I wouldn’t expect him to do much damage in the passing game this week, facing a Denver defense that’s allowed just 85% of expected receiving fantasy points to RBs.

• Christian Watson draws a top-3 matchup against a Rams defense that’s allowed 114% more fantasy points than expected against opposing outside WRs.

• Tyler Conklin is looking at the 2nd-best matchup for TEs, as Detroit has allowed 128% more fantasy points than expected to opposing TEs.

• David Njoku is looking like an outstanding play on the 3-game Saturday slate given Baltimore has allowed 117% more fantasy points than expected to opposing TEs (5th-most). The last time these teams played, Njoku scored 14.1 fantasy points on 7 targets in just three-quarters of play.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Based on team yards before contact per attempt vs. opponent yards before contact per attempt allowed, Brian Robinson, JK Dobbins, and Isiah Pacheco all draw top-3 rushing matchups this week.

• On the opposite end, Austin Ekeler, the Texans backfield, and the Miami backfield will face the worst rushing matchups of the week.

• Based on the average pressure rate over expectation between New Orleans and Atlanta, Andy Dalton draws the top passing matchup of the week from a pressure perspective. Tampa Bay and Carolina also project for solid matchups.

• The bottom of that chart illustrates that Justin Fields has easily the worst matchup of the week from a pressure perspective. Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Davis Mills also project to face heavy pressure this week.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• I noted in DFS Study Hall that the Eagles’ pass tendencies are largely dictated by matchups. Needless to say, they should be expected to go run-heavy this week facing a Chicago defense that ranks as the league’s premier run funnel by PROE allowed (-6.0%).

• The Bengals have averaged a +10.5% PROE since Week 6 – a mark that would rank 3rd-best among all teams. And since Week 6, Joe Burrow has averaged 24.5 FPG. Among all QBs over the full season, 24.5 FPG would trail only Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Turning pass-heavy has done wonders for Burrow’s fantasy value.

• The Chargers have a league-leading +13.3% PROE over the last three weeks. And I’d expect them to be pass-happy again in Week 15, facing a Titans defense that ranks as the league’s No. 2 pass funnel (+7.7% PROE).

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• The Bengals vs. Buccaneers game only has a total of 44.0, but it’s by far the best pace of play matchup – suggesting far more fantasy upside than the mediocre total implies.

• I wouldn’t expect many fantasy players to target Minnesota vs. Indianapolis, but it pops in the pace of play model as an underrated spot. This may be the game to stack on the Saturday-only three-game slate.

• Even on a three-game Saturday slate, I’m going to try to avoid game-stacking Baltimore vs. Cleveland, as it’s easily the worst pace of play matchup of the slate.

Dank Stats