Fantasy Points Data: Week 10 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

• Justin Fields has the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG (+4.8) and by schedule-adjusted rushing FPG allowed to QBs (+2.5). His TE (Cole Kmet) also has a top-3 matchup (+4.4).

• Saquon Barkley has the perfect matchup for RBs, as Houston ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to the position (+6.0) – 18% worse than the No. 2 team.

• The Carolina Panthers' passing attack has a great matchup tonight against Atlanta. PJ Walker has the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs (+5.4), while DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall have the top overall schedule-adjusted matchup for WRs (+12.2).

• Travis Etienne has the 4th-best schedule-adjusted matchup for RBs (+3.2), and the 3rd-best matchup for receiving RBs (+3.0). Etienne hasn’t seen much target volume this year, but he did log a season-high 61% route share in Week 9.

• The Denver defense is the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for both QBs and WRs. This should funnel production to Derrick Henry, as the Broncos rank 8th-toughest against RBs (-1.7).

• The Green Bay offense has an incredibly tough matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd-toughest by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing QBs (-5.2), 2nd-toughest against RBs (-2.8), and 10th-toughest against WRs (-3.0).

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Commanders are the single-best matchup for outside WRs (worth a +7.2 boost to their FPG average), presenting elite matchups for both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.

• Parris Campbell has the best slot matchup of the week, worth in real terms +6.3 FPG over his expectation. If Matt Ryan were still the QB, I’d have 100% exposure to him in DFS this week. But alas!

• The Rams offer the 3rd-best matchup for opposing WRs aligned to their QB’s left, worth in real terms +5.1 FPG over their expectation. DeAndre Hopkins has run 67% of his routes from that alignment, presenting a great matchup for the veteran WR.

• Green Bay is the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing WRs, worth in real terms -7.2 FPG relative to expectation. That hurts the Dallas WRs, most notably Michael Gallup, who has run 88% of his routes from the outside this season (the area where GB is toughest).

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• Chris Olave has an elite matchup against a Pittsburgh defense that’s allowed a league-leading 21.9 FPG to opposing WR1s.

• DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown have top-5 matchups, which shouldn’t be surprising given what we’ve already discussed.

• Drake London has the 2nd-toughest matchup for WR1s, as Carolina has allowed just 12.4 DraftKings FPG this season.

• Another bearish note for Michael Gallup, as Green Bay is the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing WR2s, while ranking as the 10th-best matchup for opposing WR2s.

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• No team has given up more deep YPG (79.1) or more deep passing FPG (10.4) than the Minnesota Vikings. Obviously, this would be the perfect matchup for Josh Allen if he were healthy, as his 13.8% deep ball rate ranks 10th-highest among QBs. Unfortunately, Case Keenum is notably less aggressive, with his 8.1 career aDOT being 13% lower than Allen’s career aDOT of 9.3.

• CLE ranks as the 5th-most vulnerable defense to deep passing by YPG allowed (57.9) and FPG allowed (7.9), setting up the potential of another ceiling game for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

• PIT ranks as the 4th-worst team against deep passing by YPG allowed (61.6) and the 3rd-worst by deep FPG allowed (8.5). This presents an awesome matchup for Chris Olave, who ranks 2nd among WRs in air yards per game (143.5) and deep targets per game (2.5).

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• The Miami Dolphins have been the single most favorable matchup for opposing QBs, allowing a league-high 22.6 FPG. Jacoby Brissett profiles as an underrated DFS option in a game where Cleveland will likely be playing from behind.

• No team allows more passing FPG than Kansas City (19.0), setting Trevor Lawrence up for an A+ matchup.

• The Raiders have been the single-most efficient team to pass on this season, allowing a league-leading 106.8 passer rating and 0.52 fantasy points per dropback. I’m still not overly optimistic about Sam Ehlinger’s ability or this Colts offense, but we can’t rule out the receiving options in DFS completely given a matchup that should lead to efficient passing.

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Saquon Barkley has an amazing matchup. The Texans are giving up a league-leading 33.3 FPG to opposing RBs (including 24.4 FPG on the ground) and the 2nd-most YPC. Beyond that, HOU is also allowing the 4th-highest explosive play% (7.2%) and by far the most yards after contact (840).

• Similarly, Christian McCaffrey also has a great matchup against LAC. The Chargers are allowing an absurd 6.0 YPC to opposing RBs, while giving up the 2nd-most FPG (30.3), the 5th-most yards after contact (695), and the 7th-highest explosive play% (6.9%).

• Conversely, Austin Ekeler’s matchup against San Francisco is the toughest of the week. The 49ers are allowing just 3.3 YPC (32nd), 18.0 FPG (31st), 8.3 receiving FPG (26th), and a 4.0% explosive play% (29th). It makes some sense to fade Ekeler captain on the SNF showdown slate due to this brutal matchup.

TE FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Denver only ranks 15th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing TEs (12.3), but 27.8% of their total receiving fantasy production has gone to TEs (4th-most). So, we would consider them to be one of the top “TE funnel” defenses in fantasy football. But, alas, it probably doesn’t matter considering they’re playing Austin Hooper and the Tennessee Titans.

• Arizona is easily the top matchup for opposing TEs, allowing 19.7 FPG – nearly 26% more than the 2nd-worst team against TEs. This is the perfect opportunity for Tyler Higbee – who ranked 3rd in targets per game (7.3) and 4th in XFP/G (12.1) prior to Week 9 – to get back on track. Still, he’s hard to trust, even in this top matchup, given the fact that he’s failed to eclipse a 50% route share in three straight games.

• I’d be quite excited about David Njoku potentially returning to the lineup this week, given Miami is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing TEs by FPG allowed (15.6). Over his last five games (including Week 7 where he left the game in the 3rd quarter due to injury), Njoku has averaged 11.6 XFP/G, 7.2 targets per game, and 75.8 YPG. Over the full season, those marks would rank 3rd-best, 3rd-best, and 2nd-best among slate-eligible TEs. Despite this, Njoku is priced as the TE6 on DraftKings and the TE7 on Fanduel.

• Excluding TDs, the Packers have been the single-toughest matchup for opposing TEs, allowing just 5.3 FPG and by far the fewest total targets (38). Not a great setup for Dalton Schultz.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• Miami profiles as the least efficient rushing matchup for opposing RBs, based on their fantasy points allowed over expectation. Certainly a knock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

• The 49ers have allowed a league-leading 139% more fantasy points than expected to opposing slot WRs, which sets up DeAndre Carter with a strong matchup on Sunday Night Football.

• The Eagles are tied as the toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs by fantasy points allowed over expectation, suggesting a brutal matchup for Terry McLaurin.

• Courtland Sutton gets a matchup against Minnesota this week – by far the best matchup for opposing outside WRs by fantasy points allowed over expectation.

• Most fantasy football players will be targeting Saquon Barkley this week, as we’ve noted he has a truly outstanding matchup. But Dameon Pierce, on the other side of the ball, is also very in play given NYG ranks as the 3rd-softest defense for opposing RBs by FPG allowed over expectation.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Based on yards before contact allowed, Christian McCaffrey has the best overall rushing projection of the week.

• Nick Chubb, on the other hand, has the single-worst rushing projection based on the average 1.02 yards before contact allowed by his offensive line and the Miami defensive line.

• Week 10 presents an underrated rushing matchup for Travis Etienne, largely thanks to Jacksonville’s league-leading 2.36 yards before contact per attempt.

• The Carolina passing attack has the top matchup of the week, based on the average pressure rate over expectation between them and the Falcons.

• Tennessee and Chicago project to be the pass games that are most hampered by pressure this week, granted we know rushing QBs aren’t nearly as impacted by pressure as pocket passers.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• Since Tampa Bay returned to their pass-heavy tendencies in Week 3, Mike Evans has ranked 2nd among all pass catchers in XFP/G (20.5). Though, granted, he ranks just 11th in FPG (16.1) over the same stretch.

• Chicago and Green Bay profile as the premier run funnels this season, with both teams ranking bottom-2 in pass rate over expectation allowed. Expect Detroit and Dallas to go more run-heavy this week.

• Conversely, Arizona and Tennessee have been the top pass funnels this season. The Rams and Broncos should lean more pass-heavy than normal in Week 10.

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• Seeing KC vs. JAX rank as the top pace of play matchup in Week 10 provides even more credence towards considering Trevor Lawrence a strong GPP play, given Kansas City’s liabilities against the pass (which we already discussed).

• It’s surprising to see LV vs. IND rank as a top-4 pace of play matchup. I would imagine this is an underrated game to target in DFS this week, and we’ve already noted a strong matchup here for Parris Campbell – who will surely be low-owned given the recent changes we’ve seen in Indy. On the Raiders side, it makes sense to target Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, both of whom should see the highest-end usage with both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow ruled out.

• TEN vs. DEN being by far the worst pace of play matchup isn’t very surprising, and it further suggests we should be avoiding this contest for fantasy purposes at all costs.

Dank Stats

TJ Hockenson earned a 14% designed target share in Week 1, a 0% designed target share from Weeks 2-8, and then a 22% designed target share in Week 9 – just four days after he joined the Minnesota Vikings.

Isaiah Likely earned 41.7% of Baltimore’s first-read targets in Week 9. Only 3 TEs have seen a higher first-read target share in a single week – Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Kyle Pitts.